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How Iran's disputed nuclear program became more important than its 'golden weapons' in Hormuz

The wording of the interim deal fuels differing interpretations between Iran and the U.S. about who manages transit * Tehran used to view the closing of waterways as a final resort * Iran will not start nuclear negotiations until Washington accepts Washington's authority over the Strait By Parisa Hafezi & Angus McDowall DUBAI, 8 July - The Strait of Hormuz is now a "golden" weapon for Iran. It is willing to risk escalating tensions with the United States for this goal, which is more important than its nuclear program for which the country has accepted sanctions for decades. The issue...

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Wall Street is jittery as Trump declares interim Iran deal "over"

Wednesday, oil prices rose more than 5% and global bond and stock prices fell as investors fled risky assets after U.S. president Donald 'Trump' said that the memorandum signed with Iran for ending the Gulf Conflict was "over". Wall Street opened lower, as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed down sentiment. This was further reinforced by a warning from the International Monetary Fund about the impact of the conflict on global growth for this year. Investors are also closely watching the minutes of the Fed meeting, which will be released later on Wednesday. This is the first Fed meeting...

Refined Products

Mike Dolan's market thoughts for midweek: Russia's Achilles' heel, stockpickers' territory and Europe's issue of self-esteem

Long/short hedge fund results prove that fundamentals are still important, and Europe continues underestimating its global power. In this midweek article, I will highlight some key stories that caught me eye?this week and may have been lost in the daily flood of market news. The pump doesn't work The late U.S. John McCain said in 2014 that "Russia is just a gas station posing as a nation." If that's the case, reports of Russia's people running out of fuel in the 4.5 year long war with Ukraine seem both absurd and very significant. The attacks on Russia's infrastructure have led...

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As oil prices rise, chip stocks continue to fall

On Wednesday, oil prices rose as U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil and renewed fighting in the Middle East threatened the ceasefire. Stocks were shaky because the record-breaking AI rally is running out of buyers. Brent crude futures rose 3.2% to $76.54 per barrel, which is still a far cry from the wartime peaks above $120, but it's enough to cause a stir in the bond markets by increasing inflation risks. This is especially true since months of conflict has reduced global inventories. Jason Wong is a senior strategist with BNZ Wellington. He said: "Obviously, the market does not like these...

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US oil prices rise after US military strikes against Iran

U.S. Oil Prices jumped by?nearly 3 percent in early trade Wednesday, continuing the previous session’s gains. This was after a series of strikes launched by the U.S. Military against Iran. The U.S. military's actions raised concerns about a fragile ceasefire. U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday that the strikes against Iran were a response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels that were?transiting the Strait of Hormuz?. As of 2215 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up $1.95 or 2.8% at $72.39 per barrel. WTI closed 2.8% higher on Tuesday, before continuing to rise?in the post-settlement trading after the U.S....

Oil & Gas

Market monitors US-Iran Talks

The price of oil rose on Tuesday as traders' anxiety over a lack of progress in peace talks between?the United States?and Iran?overrode any price impact of the slight improvement in shipping through Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose $1.02 or 1.42% to $73.01 per barrel. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude gained 93 cents or 1.36% to $69.48 per barrel at 0748 GMT. Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "The deal has not been signed yet. So something could still go wrong. And?any comments by either side can raise concerns which helps to underpin the prices. It's also removing...

Energy Markets

Stocks fall despite Samsung's upbeat forecast. The yen is weakening

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, despite the fact that South Korea's Samsung Electronics had forecast a 19-fold increase in its second-quarter profits. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was still pinned at a 40-year low amid speculation about intervention. Samsung Electronics,?the world's largest memory-chip maker, has estimated its operating profit for April-June at 89.4 trillion won ($58.44billion), marking the third consecutive quarter of record profits. South Korean shares fell by 4.1% while MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped by 0.73%. Japan's Nikkei shed 1.08%. Investors are seeking refuge in this sector due to concerns about the economy, inflation and the...

Refined Products

Oil prices rise as the focus shifts from supply to demand

The oil prices rose on Tuesday but the gains were modest as traders focused their attention on supply and demand. Brent crude futures rose 28 cents or 0.39 percent to $72.29 and U.S. West Texas?Intermediate crude climbed to $68.84 per barrel at 0046 GMT. This is up 29 cents or 0.26 percent after having settled down on Monday to levels similar to those seen before the Iran war. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that although the steps taken towards recovering supply have reduced the immediate risk premium the market still remains cautious about...

Energy Markets

Oil prices hold at pre-war levels, but stocks surge on news of chip production

Wall Street surged Monday, and oil prices settled at pre-Iran War?levels as investors awaited new developments in the AI and chipmaker sectors ahead of corporate earnings. The three major U.S. stock indexes all ended the day in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day up by 0.29%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 0.72% while the Nasdaq Composite increased 1.12%. MSCI's global index of stocks rose by 0.41%. Global AI continued to dominate the markets. South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix 00660.KS launched a U.S. shares sale on Monday to raise 43 trillion won (28.07 billion dollars) and received...

Crude Oil

Brent Oil Curve continues to decline as a glut of supply overwhelms the market

Brent crude for "prompt" delivery traded below contracts that were due to be delivered up to six months in the future this week, the latest indication that increased shipments through Strait of Hormuz has caused a glut near-term. On Friday, the first-month Brent futures contract for September traded below the five subsequent contract months. Last week it was trading at a discount to the second contract month. Brent Spreads for the Six-Month Period On Wednesday, oil prices slid to a discount. They dropped to minus 56 cents per barrel on Thursday and then recovered to a small premium on Friday....

Energy Markets

Global stocks climb as US jobs data cools Fed hike fears

Global stocks continued to rise on Friday, after a lackluster U.S. employment report tempered expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, regional activity gauges indicated an economic expansion in June. Europe's broadest index reached a new record and was on track for its largest weekly gain in more than a month. The pan-European STOXX600 reached 651,77 before stabilizing at 650.29. The DAX in Germany rose by 0.4%. The French index was stable and the UK index fell 0.2%. The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.4%. Dan Coatsworth of investment platform AJ Bell said...

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Asian markets gain footing after US PMIs and jobs data lift stocks

Stocks rose in the Asian session on Friday, after a lukewarm U.S. jobs report cast doubts over the prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Regional activity gauges also pointed to an expansionary economy during June. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, which had been in decline for two days straight, rose 2.2% after a shaky beginning. South Korea's Kospi fluctuated between gains and losses before surging by more than 6%, as buyers snapped up battered chipset stocks. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.4% while Japan's Nikkei reversed its early losses and traded 1.2% higher. The latest data from...

Europe

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Oil prices are a 'wake up call' for investors as Trump drives up inflation.

After U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the interim?agreement to end the conflict with Iran "is over", global investors were reminded of the speed at which the oil?market could reignite concerns about inflation and volatility. Oil's 5% increase has pushed down inflation-sensitive assets like bonds and gold. Aneeka Gupta is the director of macroeconomics research at Wisdomtree. We expected "that the oil flow would return to the markets and that inflation expectations would be reduced". Everyone is watching oil After Trump's comments, oil prices jumped up to 6% to reach a new two-week high. Brent futures are still...

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The benchmark interest rate of the Romanian central Bank is 6.5%

The central bank of Romania?held the benchmark interest rate to 6.5% on Wednesday as expected, due to the fact that inflation has fallen from double digits during the third quarter but is still a little above target. All the analysts surveyed by expected this decision. The bank expects the inflation rate to drop to 5.5% before year's end, but does not expect that it will return to its target range of 1.5%-3.5% until after the third quarter of 2027. The third quarter is expected to see a sharp drop in inflation as the effects of the higher electric costs and...

Energy Markets

Is MORNING BID AMERICAS 'over?

Anna Szymanski is the Editor-in Charge of Open Interest. The oil prices?rose on Wednesday, after the U.S. & Iran exchanged new military strikes. This was the biggest?escalation of violence since both sides agreed to a truce last month. Donald Trump said the memorandum was also "over". The U.S. launched strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday after several oil tanks were struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz recently. Washington's action prompted Iranian attacks against U.S. base in the region. Global stock markets were shaky on Wednesday as chip stocks continued to fall, which dragged down major Asian indexes. The...

Western Europe

East Asia

Oil & Gas

UAE's ADNOC expands its energy partnership with South Korea

ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the UAE, announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a long-term partnership with South Korea for energy security. The agreement aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crude supply and emergency supply coordination. The partnership extends existing agreements. This includes a pledge made by the United Arab Emirates in March that they would supply South Korea up to 24,000,000 barrels of crude oil. It was announced at a visit to South Korea by Sultan al-Jaber. ADNOC Group CEO and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. ADNOC stated that both parties would...

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Oil spikes due to Iran fears, but stocks fall on AI concerns

The global stock market fell on Tuesday, as investors remained concerned about the sustainability if the AI-driven rally. Oil prices also rose due to renewed Middle East tensions. In early trading on Tuesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 0.97% while the S&P500 dropped 0.32%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. The stock market took a hit despite Samsung Electronics' forecast of a 19-fold increase in operating profit from April to June, which reached 89.4 trillion dollars ($58.4billion), the third consecutive quarter that it had achieved a record operating profit. The results did not reassure investors but rather sparked heavy...

Crude Oil

Saudi Arabia cuts crude oil prices but is this enough? Russell

Saudi Aramco slashed crude oil prices in Asia for August-loading shipments, a move which appeared to indicate an intention?to recover market share and volumes after the Iran War. Even the record-breaking cut in the official?selling prices (OSPs) for August may not be sufficient, since crude oil from other Middle East producers and exporters from Africa and the Americas will likely remain more competitive than Saudi grades. Aramco, world's largest?oil exporter set its OSP at a $1.50 discount per barrel compared to the regional benchmark of Oman/Dubai for August. It was a drop of $11 per barrel from the OSP for...

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Oil prices fall, but stocks rise as Iran and chips drive markets

Wall Street gained in the midday trade on Monday, largely due to continued optimism about chip stocks. Oil fell as a result of an expected surge in supply. All three major U.S. indexes rose in the early afternoon after European stocks had flirted earlier with'record peaks' before retreating, ahead of the crucial earnings season for AI. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.07% to 52,938.04, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.73% to 7,537.75, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.25% to 26,155.56. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 0.45% to 1,128.87. Global AI continued to dominate the markets. South...

Refined Products

Yonhap reports that the prosecutor has charged South Korea's four oil refining companies with collusion over price.

Yonhap News Agency, citing the prosecution, reported that South Korean prosecutors indicted four oil refiners for alleged collusion over fuel prices, which was estimated to have caused anti-competitive damage worth $17 billion. Yonhap reported that the companies are HD Hyundai Oilbank GS Caltex S-Oil and SK Energy. The 'Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office spokesperson did not reply to my phone call and text message seeking confirmation of the report. A phone call or text message asking for confirmation of the report was not answered. Yonhap reported that the prosecutors alleged pricing managers from HD Hyundai Oilbank, SK Energy and other...

Energy Markets

As oil prices drop and earnings loom, shares in Asia are on the rise

Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday as Wall Street futures started the week on a positive note on the back of a good earnings season. Meanwhile, oil prices are dropping, which will ease inflationary pressures. Although there have been no developments in the U.S. Iran peace talks, 160 ships were reported passing through the Strait of Hormuz from Monday to last Saturday. OPEC+ agreed to increase output targets for August by 188,000 barrels a day, in addition to the increases made in June and July. Brent crude fell 0.6%, to $71.70 per barrel, a level near the four-month low....

Energy Markets

The US jobs data changes the rate outlook

Global stocks reached their best performance in the past two months after a lukewarm U.S. employment report dampened expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This slowed down?the dollar and gave gold an extra boost. STOXX 600 in Europe hit another record and traded up 0.6% last time, heading for a gain of 2.6% per week, its highest since mid-May. The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.4%. It is expected to gain 2% in the coming week, which would be the highest increase in two months. The tech-lite European indexes are in high demand again....

Crude Oil

Asian markets are choppy after US jobs data dampen Fed rate hike expectations

After a lukewarm U.S. The jobs report has thrown cold water on the 'prospect' of an imminent rate increase by the Federal Reserve. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fluctuated in gains and losses. It gained 0.1% following two days of consecutive declines. The sharp declines in U.S. chipmakers trading weighed heavily on South Korea's Kospi. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both rose by 0.1% while Japan's Nikkei was down by 1%. According to data released Thursday, the U.S. employment growth slowed dramatically in June, and payroll gains from the two previous months were'revised down.' This indicates a cooling...

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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Kicking off H2

What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets Investors are in a cautious mood as we begin the new quarter, month and second half. U.S. Treasury rates have risen overnight, ahead of the June jobs report, and they're already anticipating the second-quarter earnings season. The jump in Treasury yields was not triggered by a specific event, but it came after news of a'surprise' increase in U.S. jobs for May. It also comes before Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the European Central Bank annual forum later today in Portugal. Below,...

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Morning Bid Europe- That's a lot to digest

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The 'new quarter' in Asia has been marked by a lack of confidence, partly because the market is digesting the gains from the previous quarter and partly because the U.S./Iran talks have not progressed. Tehran has reportedly refused to meet with President Donald Trump's son in law?Jared Kushner or his envoy Steve Witkoff, who arrived for high-level talks at Doha. The Strait of Hormuz is a very difficult issue. It's unclear how to resolve it. Asian stock markets have been mixed. This follows a...

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Stocks soar in stellar quarter, dollar sinks gold, yen and other currencies

On Tuesday, global stocks were on track to achieve their best performance in the second quarter of six years. Meanwhile, a resurgent US dollar drove the yen down to its lowest level in four decades and?on course for a fourth consecutive quarterly increase. In the past three months the Strait of Hormuz reopened haphazardly and gradually as the hostilities between Iran and the U.S. waned, resulting in a fragile ceasefire that knocked 20% off of the price of crude oil. A dramatic shift has also occurred in the expectations of U.S. interest rate, against a backdrop that is dominated by...

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Investors shop for Q3 at MORNING BID EUROPE

Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. This session is the first day of buying for the next quarter, as trades settle on the following day. The 'biggest supply shock in history' has barely left a mark on the financial markets as China cut demand, producers and alternative shipping routes filled the shortfall. The oil prices have dropped to the levels they were before the U.S., Israel and Iran conflict began in February. Skirmishes that strain the ceasefire draw little attention. Even the bond markets seem to be changing. The bond...