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Morning Bid AMERICAS - Yields give way

What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets The bellicose rhetoric and energy prices rose on Monday, just as the markets were beginning to think that the Iran conflict had reached an impasse. Brent crude reached $91 per barrel over night as Iranian officials spoke of shifting into a "fully offensive" mode and maintaining a tight grip on Strait of 'Hormuz. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most recent column to see why financial officials still worry about the sustainability and growth of the AI market, despite Wall...

Energy Markets

Stocks and bonds are jarred by Middle East tensions that disrupt the calm market

The selloff of U.S. government debt picked up speed?on?Tuesday, pushing the 30-year 'Treasury yield?to a two-decade high. Fears?of a Middle East war escalation fueled inflation fears and pressured the stock market. Brent crude oil prices rose for a third day in a row after Washington and Tehran's latest signals crushed hopes that the conflict would be resolved soon. The market's response shows that tensions remain high in the Middle East, and a new escalation could have a ripple effect on oil, bonds, currencies, and stocks. The market's reaction has also shaken the calm that had been established after the recent...

Refined Products

As US-Iran tensions fade, oil prices rise as supply risks increase

The price of oil rose on Tuesday, as the prospect of a deal to end the Middle East conflict seemed further out of reach. Iran said it would adopt a more aggressive stance while the U.S. refused to extend a ceasefire. This increased concerns about the energy supply. A senior Iranian official said on Monday that Iran would adopt a "fully offensive' military posture as efforts to negotiate an end to the U.S. war have stalled. Washington has also ruled out the extension of a temporary ceasefire. The progress made towards peace talks, and the resumption of oil-tanker traffic in...

Crude Oil

Stocks mixed as dollar drops on Fed rate bets but yields rise

After a string of weak?U.S. economic data, U.S. stock prices were mixed and the dollar dropped to its lowest level since June. After a series of weak economic reports, including a surprise drop in retail sales the?markets? reduced their bets that a Fed rate hike was imminent. The 30-year Treasury yields meanwhile rose to their highest levels since 2007. Concerns over the U.S. Fiscal trajectory, combined with heavy AI related corporate debt issuance, drove yields higher. The S&P 500 dropped 0.11%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.08% thanks to a positive revenue forecast by AI lab Anthropic. The Dow Jones...

Crude Oil

Dollar slips on markets that reduce Fed rate risk

Asian shares edged higher on Monday, led largely by Chinese stocks, ahead of important economic data. Investors kept a watchful eye on oil prices, after a large gain last week, amid a deadlock in the Gulf conflict. After a string of weak data, including a surprise drop in retail sales and a lackluster run of economic reports, markets have given up on betting that the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates. According to CME Group's FedWatch, a rate hike in the next month has been priced at 30%. This is down from 50% a week ago. The broadest MSCI...

Fossil Fuels

Ukraine claims to have hit a Russian rocket center linked to Starlink network

Ukraine announced on Saturday that its long-range attacks had 'hit a Russian airfield and a rocket centre, which Kyiv claims supports a nascent Starlink satellite internet network in Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that Flamingo missiles had struck the rocket center, located about 900 kilometers (560 miles), from Ukraine's borders, as part Kyiv’s campaign to pressurize Moscow to end its four-year long war by targeting deep within Russia. "It's important to reduce Russia's military potential." In a blog post, he stated that peace is needed in Russia and it must be visible through damage to'specific facilities. He...

Energy Markets

Oil rally eclipsed by US inflation as stocks nudge to record highs

Oil prices rose on Friday as faltering negotiations to end the Iran war pushed global stocks higher. As the impasse in the peace talks continued, oil and gas prices are still expected to make a significant weekly gain. Investors are not showing any signs of panic. This week, short-dated bond rates have increased, but modestly. Meanwhile, several market-based inflation expectations measures have continued their downward trend. Gold, which is hurt by rising interest rates, has reached two-month highs. The focus is now on AI as a whole, following strong earnings which have helped to calm investor concerns about massive AI...

Energy Markets

Asian stocks are on track for a strong week-end gain as US rate hike expectations fade

Asian stocks rose on the Friday as they prepared to?have their strongest week in 2 months, as benign inflation data dented expectation of an imminent U.S. interest rate hike. However,?failing talks to end?the war in 'the Middle East will likely keep risk sentiment under control. Brent?futures remained at $87.03 a barrel, following a decline on Thursday, but were on track for a weekly gain of 4%, ending a two-week loss streak. This was after the U.S. warned to increase economic pressure against Iran, including by extending a navy blockade. The markets have, so far, shrugged off the lackluster progress made...

Refined Products

Oil prices rise after US threatens to blockade Iran indefinitely

Prices of oil?inched up on Friday, after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade against Iran. This rekindled concerns about supply after the previous session's drop on a weakened outlook for demand as well as a large build-up of U.S. stockpiles. Brent futures were up 1 cent or 0.1% to $87.08 per barrel at 0247 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 6 cents to $81.00 a bar. Brent rallied for six sessions and WTI rose for five, putting the benchmarks on course for a weekly increase of around 4%. Susan Bell, senior Vice President for Oil Commodity...

Refined Products

Oil prices rise after US threats to blockade Iran for indefinitely

After falling in the previous session due to a weaker global demand outlook, oil prices climbed a little bit on Friday. The U.S. had threatened to?maintain a naval blocade against Iran indefinitely. Brent futures were up 9 cents or 0.1% to $87.16 per barrel at 0130 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 4 cents at $81.29. Both benchmarks dropped more than 2% the previous session, paring their gains after a six sessions rally for Brent, and a five sessions rise for WTI. However, they were still on track to achieve a weekly rise of about 4%. The...

Crude Oil

The US claims that more oil is escaping the Middle East. But is this true? Russell

How much crude oil leaves the Strait of Hormuz each day? The U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright claims that almost nine million barrels of crude oil are exported every day. However, companies tracking vessel movements claim it's only about half. Wright said on social?media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military?and?our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." This oil goes into Asia, which has been the hardest hit since the U.S. Wright stated on the social?media platform X that the U.S....

Crude Oil

Brief relief MORNING BID AMERICAS

What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets The July consumer inflation report was not spectacular, but it did offer some relief to the markets who were worried about a surprise on the upside. The annual headline and core rates were lower than expected. However, the core price increase for July was higher than forecast. Below, I will get to that and more. Check out my latest article, which explores AI's impact on inflation and employment so far. Listen to the most recent episode of Morning Bid, the daily podcast. Subscribe...

Europe

Refined Products

Uncertainty over oil exports via Hormuz has pushed up the price of crude.

The oil prices rose in the early trading on Wednesday. They have risen for a?fourth straight day due to supply uncertainty. Investors weighed contradictory messages from Washington and Tehran on whether or not the 'Strait of Hormuz' is open to ships. Brent crude futures climbed?26 Cents, or 0.29% to $91.28 at 0004 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures rose 37 Cents to $85.31 a bar. The two contracts reached their highest levels since July 24, as the hopes for peace between Iran and the U.S. faded. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that no talks are taking place with...

Energy Markets

Oil prices continue to rise as US-Iran ceasefire ends

The bond yields rose on Tuesday, reaching their highest level in decades. Oil prices were up for a third consecutive day. Stocks in Asia were under pressure as the U.S./Iran truce ended and Tehran warned of a "fully offensive military posture". The yield of the 30-year Treasury Bond in the United States rose by 1.6 basis points, reaching its highest intraday level since almost 20 years. The 10-year counterpart rose 1.8 basis points to 4.7399%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist of Saxo Bank, Singapore. She said that if this trend continues, it will have a significant impact on...

Energy Markets

Russian ESPO blend crude oil returns to premium compared with Brent due to China's demand, traders claim

Four traders reported that Russia's Far East ESPO blend crude for October -delivery to China -is trading at a?premium of up to a $1 per barrel over ICE Brent. This is largely due to the strong Chinese demand and uncertainty about?oil _supplies originating from the Middle East or Iran. The traders say that Asian buyers are looking for alternatives to Middle Eastern crude oil amid fears of continued disruptions in shipments across the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose on Monday, despite the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict. One of the traders said,...

Western Europe

East Asia

Energy Markets

Nasdaq falls, yields rise as Mideast conflict fears increase

The yields on U.S. government bonds eased slightly Tuesday, but longer-dated yields remain near multi-year peaks after the 30-year Treasury yield earlier reached a level that had not been seen since 2007. Fears of a Middle East conflict escalating fueled inflation fears and weighed heavily on stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.33%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.22%. And the S&P 500 was down 0.69%. Oil prices reached their highest level in over three weeks, after Iran announced that it would take a more aggressive stance. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and the United States...

Crude Oil

Nasdaq falls, yields rise as Mideast conflict fears increase

The yields on U.S. government bonds eased a little bit on Tuesday. However, longer-dated yields remain near multi-year highs. Earlier in the day, the 30-year Treasury yield had reached a level that was not seen since 2007. Fears of an escalating Middle East?conflict have fueled inflation concerns and put pressure on stocks. Oil prices rose for the third consecutive session as prospects of a U.S. - Iranian peace deal dimmed. Tehran announced it would take a more aggressive stance, and Washington said that it wouldn't extend a ceasefire agreement. U.S. crude climbed 0.82%, to $85.17 per barrel. Brent was up...

Crude Oil

Bond markets in the US and Japan are smashed by inflation and fiscal concerns

The United States' long-term borrowing costs to Japan and Germany reached their highest level in decades on Tuesday as new inflation concerns added to the nagging concern about the fiscal pressures that are facing some of the largest economies around the world. The 30-year bond yields of the United States - the world's most important government bond market - hit their highest level since 2007. Oil prices -- which are up 50% this year -- have risen back above $90 per barrel, causing inflation fears as U.S. - Iran peace hopes fade. In Japan, fears of inflation and the expectation...

Energy Markets

As inflation and fiscal concerns take hold, bond markets grip from US to Japan

The cost of borrowing long-term from the United States for Japan and Germany reached their highest level in decades on February 2, as new inflation concerns?added lingering fears about fiscal pressures in major economies. This dealt bond markets a "fresh blow". The 30-year bond yields on the United States' government bond market, which is considered to be one of the most important in terms of systemic importance, reached their highest level since 2007. Oil prices rose above $90 per barrel, causing inflation fears as U.S. peace hopes with Iran faded. In Japan, the fear of inflation and expectations that Bank...

Energy Markets

Oil prices rise, bond yields increase as US-Iran ceasefire expires

Oil prices rose and bond yields increased, reducing the gains in stocks as Asian trading began on Tuesday. A truce between Iran and the United States expired and Tehran announced it would shift to a more "fully offensive" military posture. MSCI's broadest?Asia-Pacific?shares index outside Japan rose 0.8%. The South Korean KOSPI rose more than 3%, as Seoul's market returned from a holiday. The Nikkei fell by 0.3% while S&P500 e-minis futures were flat. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up by 0.8 basis points at?4.728%. The 30-year counterpart was up 0.6 basis points at...

Oil & Gas Refining

Saudi Aramco sells crude oil to Asian refiners outside of Hormuz, according to sources

Saudi Aramco offers crude oil outside the Strait of Hormuz through private negotiations to some asian refiners, according to two sources familiar with the matter. This is similar to the strategy adopted by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co of United Arab Emirates. Sources said that Aramco was in rare talks with buyers about supplying Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude via STS transfers near Fujairah, UAE. One of them stated that the cargoes would be loaded in September. It wasn't immediately clear how Aramco transported its cargoes to Fujairah. These offers are just the latest indication that 'crude supplies are...

Crude Oil

Dollar slips, shares remain steady as markets reduce Fed rate risk

On Monday, global shares rose and the dollar dropped to its lowest level in a year after a series of'soft' U.S. data, which included an unexpected decline?in retail sales, led markets to reduce their bets on an impending rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to CME Group's FedWatch, a hike in the next month has been priced at 30%. This is down from 50% a few weeks ago. STOXX, a benchmark index of 600 large European companies, rose 0.04% on the back of resource stocks, as gold prices increased. In the US, Nasdaq and S&P futures both gained 0.5%....

Fossil Fuels

ADNOC, the UAE's oil company, sold at least 14 million barrels of crude oil in its latest tender.

In its most recent tender, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. sold at least 14,000,000 barrels of'spot crude' to Asian refiners for premiums. ADNOC had issued its eighth tender?since? the start of June, as the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates continued to try and move crude produced within the Strait of Hormuz despite persistent shipping delays. ADNOC has now sold more than 108 million barrels of crude oil through eight different tenders. Sources said that Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil purchased 2 million barrels on Upper Zakum crude at a price premium of $10.50 per barrel over Dubai's benchmark...

Energy Markets

Oil rally eclipsed by benign US inflation as stocks near record highs

The global?stocks were hovering around record highs Friday. They are set to make a third consecutive weekly gain, after benign inflation figures tempered expectations of a 'U.S. Rate hikes are expected to take place next month despite the faltering of talks to end the Middle East war. The price of oil and gas was still on track for a large weekly gain, as the impasse in the peace talks continued, while the U.S. threatened a stepped-up economic pressure against Iran, which included extending the naval blockade. Investors are not showing any signs of panic. This week, short-dated bond rates have...

Climate Change

Exports of China's electric trucks are soaring due to the Iran war

China's?exports of electric trucks to other Asian nations have soared. This is in addition to an increase in domestic sales, as the?higher fuel costs as a result of the Iran War accelerate regional electrification. China's rapid adoption of etrucks - from lighter vehicles to tractors-trailers - has shielded the 'world's largest auto market' from the conflict. Other countries are now scrambling for a chance to catch up. China's heavy etruck exports have more than doubled in the last four months since the U.S. and Israel started the war, on February 28. They now total 16,823 vehicles. The majority of the...

Crude Oil

Oil stocks rise globally, but US CPI remains stable

Oil prices and global equity markets increased after the talks to end Iran's war reached an impasse. The markets then turned to the U.S. inflation data later that day. The?U.S. Consumer prices data will provide signals about the timing of a Federal Reserve rate increase. The data may not reflect the latest rise in oil price, but it can still be used to set expectations for next month's Fed meeting when the money markets predict a roughly 50/50 chance of an increase. According to a survey, consumer prices are predicted to rise by 0.1% in the month of July after...

Crude Oil

Stocks rise as oil prices continue to rise in anticipation of a possible US-Iran agreement

The oil prices rose and global stocks were up on Tuesday as traders focused on the negotiations between the United States and Iran on a peace agreement and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Gains were tempered by uncertainty over the?global inflation forecast. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Pakistan's defence minister stated that the U.S. is close to a "sort of arrangement" between Iran and Pakistan. The MSCI index of world stocks rose 0.10% to 1,154.40. The escalating tensions between the two countries have been a focus of attention. Oil prices jumped 5% Monday as a result. Donald Trump,...