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Energy Markets

Treasury yields increase for the fourth consecutive day as crude prices raise inflation risk

U.S. Treasury Yields rose on Thursday for the fourth day in a row, as the war in Iran continued. This fueled concerns about inflation and its impact on Federal Reserve Policy. U.S. crude jumped 5.5% - to $78.77 a barrel on Thursday, while Brent jumped up to $84.36 a barrel, up 3.64% for the day. This was due to the fact that more oil tankers were attacked in Gulf waters, as the U.S. vs. Iran war intensified, and Iranian drones invaded Azerbaijan. Since the beginning of the war last week, crude prices have risen by roughly 16%. The yield on...

Refined Products

As Iran's conflict disrupts the oil market, Americas heavy crude price reaches multi-year highs

The price of heavy crude oil produced in Americas reached multi-year-highs on Wednesday as a result of the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran, which slowed down the exports similar oil produced elsewhere in the Middle East. Brent crude is at its highest level since January 2025, and benchmark crude oil has surged ever since the first attacks last week. Iran has threatened that it will fire at any vessel passing through the'shipping lanes' of the Strait of Hormuz near its southern coast as a retaliation to the U.S. and Israeli attacks. This has effectively shut down the Strait of...

Fossil Fuels

McGeever: Risk of dollar liquidity shock highlighted by Mideast crisis

This week, investors have been dumping dollars amid the turmoil in Middle East. It is a reminder of the potential rocky transition from a dollar-centric world to a multi-polar, fractured one. Investors seeking relative safety in the world's most liquid asset, the dollar, are boosting its value as the war that has spread across the region since the joint U.S. and Israeli assault on Iran last Saturday. Equity indices which were the best performers in the first two months of this year have plummeted. South Korea's KOSPI, which rose?50% in February, has fallen nearly 20% in just two days. The...

Crude Oil

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Seoul-sapping selloff

By Mike Dolan March 4th - Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets, explains what matters today in U.S. markets. The Middle East crisis has shocked Asia's stock market on Wednesday. South Korea's Kospi plunged 12%, its worst ever day. Japan's Nikkei index and Taiwan's benchmark both lost about 4%. The Korean won has hit its weakest level in 17 years. Seoul and other Asian centres were forced to suspend their trading due to the scale of the selling. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my column about why gold has lost some of its "safe-haven" shine...

Oil & Gas

Oil prices rise by 1% after Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supplies

?Oil Prices rose 1% on Tuesday as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran disrupted Middle -East supplies. However, the pace of gains slowed from previous sessions after President Donald 'Trump' raised the possibility of U.S. Navy escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil rose $1.17 or 1.4% to $82.57 per barrel at 0408 GMT after Tuesday's closing price was its highest since Jan 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose 72 cents or 1% to $75.28 after reaching its highest level since June. Both have risen by 5% or more over the last two sessions. Phillip...

Refined Products

Oil prices rise to $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supplies

The price of oil rose by more than $1 Wednesday, as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East production and stopped exports from the region. Brent rose $1.11 or 1.4% to $82.53 per barrel after Tuesday's closing price at its highest level since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose by 79 cents or 1.1% to $75.37 after closing at its highest level since June. Israeli and U.S. troops struck targets in Iran on Tuesday. This prompted Iranian strikes against the energy infrastructure of a region which accounts for less than a third global oil production....

Crude Oil

ROI-Iran war exposes 60-40 portfolio frailty: McGeever

Investors are left with an uncomfortable question: How can they hedge their risks when the traditional equity and bond portfolio is no longer working? Investors are under increasing pressure to find a solution, and the answer may not be obvious. However, the volatility of the world markets following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran last weekend indicates that this will only intensify. As bonds fell across the curve, the implied volatility of U.S. Treasuries rose the most on Monday since April. Implied - U.S. Equity market volatility on Tuesday was the highest since October as stocks all over the world fell....

Energy Markets

MORNING BID AMERICAS-Hormuz haze hits markets

By Mike Dolan March 3rd - Mike Dolan is Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets. The world's markets continue to be rattled by the Middle East conflict, which is now in its third day. There are still no signs of an end date or location for the regional conflict. Energy prices are still at the center of financial transmission. Crude oil is rising again as?shipping and oil and gas installations, military and civilian targets, and oil and gasoline pipelines continue to be hit by Iran in retaliation for the weekend strikes. Below, I'll go into more detail. Check out my most...

Coal

Wildfires may force S&P to cut Berkshire's PacifiCorp utility into junk

S&P Global announced on Monday that it could downgrade PacifiCorp to junk status, as liability from class actions litigation over a number of Oregon wildfires in 2020 increases. The warning was issued after an?Oregon juror on February 25, awarded $305 Million to 16 plaintiffs or $19 Million per plaintiff. They blamed PacifiCorp of failing to shut down power lines during the Labor Day Weekend windstorm. In earlier trials, plaintiffs had received an average of $5 million. S&P stated that it may reduce PacifiCorp’s "BBB minus" credit rating - the lowest investment grade - by at least two notches if future...

Fossil Fuels

How has the Strategic Petroleum Reserve been used by US presidents during wartime?

Although the U.S. does not plan to sell oil from its Strategic Petroleum?Reserve - the world's largest stockpile of emergency oil - presidents have used it in times of crisis to try to control fuel costs for U.S.?consumers. A U.S.-based source confirmed on Monday that the administration of Donald 'Trump does not have any plans to sell oil from the SPR. Analysts said that if the oil prices continue to increase following the U.S. and Israeli attacks against OPEC member Iran, which killed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as other top officials, then the administration may take another...

Energy Markets

Russell: The key to a boost in crude oil production from OPEC+ is the duration of the disruption caused by Hormuz.

The OPEC+'s decision to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels a day (bpd), starting in April, is the least significant decision that the group has taken during its nearly decade-long existence. Addition of 0.2% to global oil demand in a month is a mere symbolic gesture, given the escalating conflict in 'the Middle East' that is already causing serious disruptions in supply. The eight OPEC+ members who are voluntarily reducing their production could not have done much at the meeting held on Sunday to assure market participants of supply security. Analysts had predicted that the increase in barrels would...

Crude Oil

Morning Bid - Middle East Maelstrom

By Mike Dolan Mar 2 - What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets After the Middle East war broke out, crude oil prices rose as high as 10% over night. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which took place on Saturday, elicited a'significant response' from Tehran. This has caused a halt to?traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are still high, but have slightly cooled. In the meantime, the financial markets have their first opportunity to react to an escalating conflict that has seen the death of Iranian...

Europe

Crude Oil

Stocks plunge in Seoul as record sell-off leads to stock market rout

Investors dumped bets in the chip industry on Wednesday as they feared that a growing Middle East conflict would cause an oil shock, which could increase inflation and delay interest rate reductions. Asia is heavily dependent on the energy imports that are shipped through the nearly closed 'Strait of Hormuz'. This was evident in Seoul where the session ended with the stock market dropping 12%. It was the biggest drop ever recorded. Over the past two days, the benchmark lost over 18% of its worth while the currency fell to a low not seen in 17 years. Japan's Nikkei dropped...

Energy Markets

QUOTES - Asia stock crash deepens, as markets prepare for energy shock

Investors sold their chips on Wednesday as they feared that the Middle East conflict would cause an oil shock, which could fuel inflation and delay interest rate cuts. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 4.2%. Seoul's KOSPI index fell more than 11%, triggering a circuit break. Japan's Nikkei Index and Taiwan's index both dropped more than 4 percent each. Analysts' comments: COMMENTS: CHARU CHANANA CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST SAXO SINGAPORE "Asia’s selloff has become disorderly, because markets are no longer treating it as a one-week headline shock. The current?pricing reflects the fact that this conflict could continue,...

Energy Markets

Stocks drop more in fear of oil shock.

Tom Westbrook, Wayne Cole and others look ahead to the European and global markets. South Korea was the hardest hit by the 'flight from risk' in response to a possible prolonged oil shock. The KOSPI was down almost 13% at one time and had lost 8% by?mid-session. Two-day losses are the highest since 2009. Panic hit one of the best trades in the year. Japan was also hit by heavy selling, with the Nikkei down 3.7%. Taiwan stocks fell 3.6%. In a market that had been very crowded, there were few buyers. Thailand was the worst performing emerging market with...

East Asia

Middle East

Energy Markets

Asian petchem makers face naphtha disruption as Iran conflict widens

The Middle East supply chain is buckling under the U.S. - Iran conflict. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been halted and buyers are bracing themselves for delays and increased costs. Two sources familiar with the situation said that Chandra Asri, an Indonesian company, declared force majeure for all contracts on Tuesday, while Maruzen Petrochemical, a Japanese company, and Mitsui Chemical of Japan cancelled the second half April import tenders. Both Japanese companies declined comment. Asia imports Middle East naphtha in the amount of 4 million metric tonnes (36 million barrels). Naphtha, a raw material used to make...

Crude Oil

Why is Asia so dependent on Middle Eastern oil sources?

Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East oil and gas, with 60% of its crude coming from this region. This makes it vulnerable to a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Iran War. How much Middle East oil does Asia import? The Middle East is the largest oil producing and exporting region in the world, shipping?one out of four barrels of crude oil daily, most of which are exported through the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping analytics firm Kpler, Asia will import 14.74 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude per day in 2025....

Crude Oil

Traders say that India's MRPL has declared force majeure for gasoline export cargoes in March and April.

Two traders said that India's Mangalore Refinery has declared force majeure for all gasoline exports due to the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted crude oil flows from the Gulf. Two traders who said they had received a notification from the company said that MRPL had invoked force majeure. This is a legal term that allows a business to invoke circumstances beyond their control in order to?not fulfill a contract' for its gasoline sales for March and April. The state-run ?refiner, which operates a 500,000-barrel-per-day refinery in the southern state of Karnataka, exports about ?40% of its refined fuel output....

Oil & Gas

ROI-Iran war exposes 60-40 portfolio frailty: McGeever

Investors are uncomfortable with the Middle East conflict and the flaring geopolitical risks around the world. How can they hedge these risks when the traditional equity-bond portfolio no longer works? Investors are under pressure to find a solution, and the answer may not be obvious. However, the recent volatility in the world markets following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran at the weekend indicates that this pressure will only intensify. On Monday, implied volatility in U.S. Treasuries rose to its highest level since April as bonds fell across the curve. On Tuesday, implied volatility in the U.S. equity markets rose to...

Energy Markets

Analysts say that oil shock could affect emerging markets in ways beyond inflation.

Analysts warn that the war in Iran, and the surge?in energy costs it will cause, will have a significant impact on emerging markets. This includes pressures on currency, capital flows and external balances. Brokerages such as J.P.Morgan, and?Bernstein expect Brent prices will rise 'above a $100 mark if conflict continues. Tehran has vowed that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, and warned any ship attempting to pass through the vital shipping route for gas and oil. Brent crude futures rose $5.63 or 7.2% to $83.36 per barrel at 1254 GMT, after reaching their highest level since July 2024, $85.12....

Crude Oil

Minister says Indonesia will import more crude oil as the Middle East conflict escalates.

Indonesia's energy minister said that the country will increase its crude oil imports from the United States to replace the Middle East supply amid an escalating conflict in the region. U.S.-Israeli air warfare against Iran has resulted in the deaths of scores of civilians, both inside Iran and Israel, and the chaos of global air travel. Oil prices have also risen after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where one fifth of the world's oil trade passes along the Iranian coast. Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that a quarter of Indonesia’s crude oil imports are from the Middle East....

Energy Markets

MORNING BID EUROPE - Trump's 'Whatever it takes' pledge deepens the stock selloff and lifts oil prices

Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The global markets have been 'caught up in a heightened state of uncertainty, as U.S. president Donald Trump has sought to defend an open-ended, broad war against Iran. This has smashed stocks yet again and pushed energy prices higher. The markets did not seem to be able to grasp that?Trump had said the U.S. would "do whatever it takes" in order for them achieve their military objectives in Iran. The safe-haven status that Gulf cities such as Dubai enjoy has been questioned like...

Crude Oil

PMI data shows that Saudi Arabia's growth in non-oil businesses slowed down in February.

A'survey' released on Tuesday showed that the growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector slowed in February and reached its lowest level in nine months as competition pressures weighed on expansion. However, demand remained high. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing managers' Index (PMI), which is adjusted for season, fell to 56.1 from 56.3 in January. However, it remained above the threshold of 50 that distinguishes between growth and contraction. Naif Al Ghaith is the chief economist at Riyad bank. He said, "This performance has been driven by robust domestic consumption and a steady flow of new project approvals." Saudi Arabia's...

Energy Markets

Asia's margin on naphtha reaches four-year high due to supply concerns

Profit margins for Asia's naphtha refinery As the Middle East conflict entered its third day, global?traders and shippers were spooked. Feedstock prices have risen and Asian buyers will have few options for alternative supplies if the disruption continues, according to a Singapore-based official of a major European trader. This is after U.S. The official said that "they (petrochemical manufacturers) will soon have to reduce their operating rates." Estimates from traders indicate that nearly 4 million tons of Asia bound naphtha traverse the Strait of Hormuz every month. A?third of this lands?in South Korea. The Asian naphtha refinery margin LSEG data...

Crude Oil

McGeever: The war in Iran traps Treasuries' investors in an oil stagflationary dilemma.

U.S. Treasuries have just had their best month since last year. Investors must now decide whether the sudden outbreak of war in 'the Middle East' will boost bond demand or if a surge in oil prices, which is accompanied by inflationary pressures, will cause it to crash. The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, which killed the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei,?marked a dramatic escalation of regional tensions. The simmering conflict has already helped to push Brent crude oil above $70 per barrel in recent weeks, and also sparked investor interest in Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down below 4%. These...

Crude Oil

Asia's jet-fuel and diesel cash premiums reach multi-year highs due to Mideast concerns

Multiple regional trade sources reported that the cash differentials for jet fuel and diesel in Asia reached multi-year highs as the'markets priced in' the risks of supply disruptions as the conflict in Middle East intensifies. Jet Fuel Cash Differentials LSEG's pricing data showed that the session ended with a $4 premium per barrel. This was more than $2 above the previous close, and levels last seen in September of 2022. Diesel cash differentials The data revealed that premiums were around $4.25 per barrel, the last time they reached those levels was in November 2022. The refining margins for both gasoil...

Fuel Oil

The Asia market for high-sulfur fuel oil is growing as tensions in the Middle East threaten to reduce exports

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, fears of tightening exports grew. The Middle East is one of the largest exporters of fuel oil into Asia. Most barrels end up in bunker hubs, where they are sold to ships to refuel them, or to refineries to use as feedstock for other oil products. Cracks in HSFO received a 'boost' as traders waited for clarity from Middle Eastern exporters such as?the United Arab Emirates?, Iraq?, Kuwait? and Saudi Arabia?. Expectations of a tighter sour crude oil market also lent a boost. Singapore's 380cst HSFO/Dubai...