Crude Oil

Investors attribute the rise in U.S. stock and bond yields in recent weeks to the Iran War, inflation, and AI arms race. Some models suggest that higher borrowing costs are now reaching a point where they begin to drag down equities. The inputs and methods used to calculate equity risk premia (ERP), the excess return promised by investing in equities compared with "risk-free" government bond investments, differ greatly. Yet,?Societe Generale’s proprietary version (which the bank updated this week) reckons that nominal?U.S. Treasury yields of 4.5% represent a pivotal point in the relative value between asset classes. The SG team found...

The price of oil fell from its recent highs, wiping out some of the previous days' 4% increase. Traders sought clarity on the?complex?negotiations?between Iran and the U.S. Brent crude futures dropped $1.42 or 1.43% to $98.16 per barrel at 0253 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), lost $1.66 or 1.77% to $92.23 per barrel. The price of oil soared after the U.S. The military launched new strikes against Iran, sapping hopes that the United States and Iran could?come to an agreement?to end the war. Iran claimed on Tuesday that the United States violated a truce by striking targets...

The first shipment of U.S. emergency reserves oil to Asia in 2022 was crude oil from the U.S. strategic?Petroleum reserve, according to ship tracking data. Asia receives 80% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial chokepoint which has been largely closed for the past three months due to the Iran War. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for three months, disrupting global oil supplies. Physical crude prices have reached record levels. Some importers are now looking to find new suppliers. The Greek flagged Very Large Crude 'Carrier Arosa' loaded 616,000 barrels from the Bryan...

LONDON/DUBAI - U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran would "take a few more days." This dimmed hopes for a quick?end to this conflict, after the U.S. launched what they called defensive strikes in the south of Iran. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated earlier that many of the topics covered in a possible 14-point memorandum were concluded, but it did not mean an agreement to end the war was imminent. WHAT STAGE ARE THE DISCUSSIONS AT? After a ceasefire early in April, both sides remain 'at odds' on difficult issues, including Iran's nuke ambitions,...

Investor optimism about a U.S. peace deal with Iran was tempered by the recent U.S. strikes across the Middle East. An official who was briefed about the visit revealed that Iran's top negotiator, as well as its foreign minister, were in Doha to discuss a possible deal with the U.S. for the end of the war. This came after Washington and Tehran had played down expectations for an immediate breakthrough. Separately, The Nikkei reported that the two parties were discussing plans to open up the Strait of Hormuz around 30 days after a ceasefire agreement was reached. Even as the...

LONDON/DUBAI - On Monday, the spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said that many conclusions had been reached regarding a "potential 14-point Memorandum of Understanding", but that this did not mean an agreement to end the "Middle East War" was imminent. Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesperson for the Iranian government, explained that the framework focuses on a ceasefire and a U.S. navy blockade, in exchange for Tehran taking measures to ensure safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz. What stage are the discussions? Both sides are at odds over difficult issues, including Iran's nuke ambitions, Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and...

The Memorial Day federal holidays on May 25 and May 24 will impact the release schedule for some major economic, energy, and commodities reports in Washington. The schedule is below. Time in EDT/GMT. Certain Treasury announcements may be subject to change. Monday, May 25, Memorial Day. Federal government offices, Federal Reserve and International Monetary Fund closed. Tuesday, May 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases National Activity Index for the month of April, 830/1230 S&P Cotality Issues 20 Metro Area U.S. National Home Price Index for March, 09:00/1300 Federal Housing Finance Agency releases U.S. House Price Index, March 2009, 9am/1300...

Investors questioned the prospects of a breakthrough at the U.S.-Iran talks. The two sides are still at odds over Tehran's uranium stocks and the Strait of Hormuz. The market is still headed for a loss this week. According to a senior Iranian source, no agreement has been made with the United States. The gaps are narrowing, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that there have been "some positive signs" in negotiations. However, any toll system on the Strait would be unacceptable. Brent crude futures rose by $2.38 or 2.3% to $104.96 a barge at 0034 GMT. U.S. West Texas...

Investors were hopeful about possible progress in the Middle East peace talks on Thursday, even though the U.S. remained opposed to Iran's uranium stockpiles and its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The gap between the U.S. and Iran has narrowed according to a senior Iranian source. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, said that there have been "some positive signs" during the talks. However, any toll in the Strait would not be acceptable. U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the U.S. would eventually recover Iran's highly enriched stockpile. The oil prices were higher in the morning, but the...

Investors weighed the prospects of progress between the United States, Iran and their war to end the talks. Oil prices dropped and U.S. stock markets were mixed on Thursday. The oil prices were higher in the morning, and major U.S. stocks also rose. Stock indices fell after reports that Iran's supreme ruler had issued a directive not to export the country's near weapons-grade uranium. This was a hard-line stance against a main demand from the United States. The order by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei could complicate the talks to end the Iran War, and make the conflict that began...

Oil prices dropped?on Friday, continuing losses from the previous day as investors watched peace talks between Iran and the United States, while economic activity in Europe?shrank dramatically. Brent crude futures fell 82 cents or?0.8%? to $104.20 a barge by 0949 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures were down $60 cents or 0.6%?to $97.66. The benchmarks fell around 5.6% to their lowest level in over a week on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran are in the final stages. Tehran is responding to the text sent by the U.S., Iran's ISNA reported on Thursday. The news...

Russia announced?on Thursday it would provide active support to Cuba, despite efforts by the United States to 'intimidate' and tighten "sanctions" around the Communist island nation. The United States announced a murder charge against former president Raul Castro, Wednesday. This is a major escalation of Washington's war against Cuba. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, told reporters that "we will continue to provide the most active support to a fraternal Cuban population during this extremely challenging period." "We reaffirm that we are fully united with Cuba. We condemn any attempts to grossly interfere in the internal affairs a...

On Wednesday, Asian shares reached record highs and oil prices remained elevated as the markets awaited signs that a fragile truce between Iran and the United States would be extended. After Iran claimed that the U.S. violated the ceasefire, the dollar maintained gains from its previous session. The?dollar of New Zealand rose after its central bank maintained its policy rate but indicated that future increases will have to be made sooner. After the U.S. stock market reopened after a long holiday, Japanese and South Korean stocks reached new highs thanks to AI optimism. The mood remains fragile, though, as the...

Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Central bankers warn that inflationary damage has already been done, even though markets seem to have 'looked past the Middle East Crisis and the havoc this has caused on energy supplies. Share?markets have soared in Japan and South Korea, riding AI optimism that sent U.S. benchmarks soaring to new highs. This euphoria depends largely on the United States' and Iran's ability to reach a deal that will end their three-month conflict, and reopen Strait of Hormuz for oil shipping. These hopes were dashed by...

Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, said on Wednesday that central banks shouldn't merely rely on oil prices because a temporary energy spike can persist if it affects wages, expectations and pricing behavior. Ueda compared the various energy shocks Japan has experienced over the years. He said that the same increase in oil prices can have different effects on wages and expectations, on demand, on currency rates, and on other factors depending on how they are initially impacted. He said that if inflation expectations are high, and wages are increasing, there is a risk of a second-round...

What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets After a long holiday weekend in the United States, and other countries, markets were ready to celebrate signs that a peace plan with Iran was close to agreement. World crude prices fell nearly 7% on Monday, to below $100 a barrel. According to reports, the peace plan being discussed would include a 60-day extension of ceasefire and an eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The news of the latest U.S. strikes against Iranian targets overnight exacerbated doubts about how quickly a final document...

London copper prices remained steady on Tuesday, as a weaker dollar was countered by higher oil costs after the latest U.S. strikes against?Iran shattered hopes of a resolution to the Middle East Conflict. This fueled concerns about the global economy outlook. By 0536 GMT, the London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was unchanged at $13,671 per metric ton. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.4% to 104,990 Yuan ($15.451.64) per tonne. U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran would "take a few day," dispelling hopes of an imminent end to...

Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Oil prices climbed Tuesday after U.S. forces conducted what they called defensive'strikes' in southern Iran, just as investors were becoming more hopeful about a peace agreement?between the two nations. The strikes occurred as Iran's chief negotiator, its foreign minister and the Qatari prime minister met in Doha for talks on Monday about a possible deal with the U.S. that would end the war of three months. Washington and Tehran played down the hopes of an imminent breakthrough. This kept the optimism down, as the...

U.S. Stock Futures climbed on Monday, while oil and the dollar fell. The prospect of an agreement to end the Iran War boosted risk appetite. However, a lack of clarity about when the 'Strait of Hormuz' would open kept enthusiasm in check. Energy prices have soared in response to the nearly three-month war in the Middle East. Worries about inflation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which most world energy passes, has impacted global rates. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he told his representatives on Sunday not to rush any deal with Iran. His administration...

Three trade sources familiar with the issue said that China will only see a small increase in refined fuel exports from May to June, because Beijing plans to maintain export restrictions for a fourth month in order to protect domestic supply. Two sources said that June exports were estimated to be around 550,000 metric tonnes or slightly more than expected, compared to about 500,000 tons in May. The two sources and another person said that state oil firms must now seek approval from the government on a regular basis for every shipment they export. This is because China, the world's...

Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets The markets are once again hoping for an end to the Iran War, despite the fact that both Washington and Tehran have said they are still 'far apart' on critical issues such as nuclear enrichment and the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks rose on Monday after U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio stated that there were "some positive signs" in the talks to end a war lasting nearly three months. He also said that any deal?that included Iran imposing an toll system on...

The?U.S. dollar rose to six-week highs on Friday, while Asian stocks also gained. The dollar was near its six-week highs, and oil prices were swayed by investors who held on to hope of a breakthrough in U.S.Iran peace negotiations. Investors are worried about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a vital artery that supplies energy to the world. It has caused oil prices to soar and changed the outlook for global interest rates due inflationary fears. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary for State, said that there were "some positive signs" in the talks to end the...

Stocks rose on Thursday as some vessels resumed their passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, forecast-beating Nvidia results and a suspended workers' strike by Samsung Electronics boosted?shares of the chipmakers. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 1.2% to end a four-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the KOSPI soared over 4%. Brent crude futures rose 0.7% in Asia to $105.76 per barrel, retracing their declines following the passage of three supertankers through the Strait on Wednesday. Iran also consolidated control over the waterway. Wall Street saw the S&P500 rise 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rally 1.5%, after three...

The global share market fell on Monday, as new drone attacks in the Gulf pushed oil prices and bonds yields higher. This stoked inflation concerns in a week where the tech bull will be tested with?earnings by Nvidia. The United Arab Emirates reported that a drone attack caused a fire at a nuclear plant. Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting three drones. The Strait of Hormuz, which is vital to the oil and gas industry in the world, remains closed for all but a small amount of shipping. This is because Tehran wants to formalise control of this waterway. George Lagarias...