Crude Oil

JP Morgan stated on Thursday that they do not have a baseline view of oil markets for the first time since the US-Israeli War on Iran. Analysts at the bank stated that they "simply do not know how to model endgame." The note noted that JP Morgan assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be a few economic thresholds the U.S. government wouldn't cross. However, six months later, these lines had been crossed and no exit strategy was in sight. The bank stated that gasoline is now $4.37 per gallon, and oil has risen above $100 per...

The dollar climbed to a seven-week peak on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three year and oil prices dropped. This helped ease a global bond selloff which has been rumbling for months. Bank of England is now the focus, which will likely leave UK rates unchanged later. However, all eyes are on the BoE to see if it indicates a possible November rate hike given the pressures of high energy prices. Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates this Friday. The main European share markets opened 0.2%...

Global stocks rose?on Wednesday, as recent increases in government bond yields?and oil prices stalled in advance of an important U.S. Federal Reserve?interest-rate decision later that day. MSCI's global equity index gained 0.2%, after having fallen in the two previous sessions. A?index? of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.6% to end a four-day loss streak. The majority of European bourses were trading higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.6%, and benchmarks in Germany, France, and Spain also saw gains. Futures that track the major U.S. stock indices also point to a higher opening after the benchmark S&P 500 closed lower on...

The global stock market rose on Wednesday, as the recent rise in oil and government bond yields paused before a crucial U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision later that day. MSCI's global equity index rose 0.1% after falling in the two previous sessions. A four-day losing streak was broken by an index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which rose 0.6%. The STOXX Europe 600 index, which is the pan-European benchmark, opened 0.3% higher. Futures that track the U.S. S&P 500 index also rose, after the benchmark index had closed lower for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The yield on the...

As a result of a break in the global bond market and a fall in oil prices, stocks in Asia edged up on Wednesday. This helped calm nerves ahead of a crucial Federal Reserve decision that would be made later in the day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan, after a shaky beginning, was up 0.5%. This ended a four-day loss streak. Gains in Korean and Taiwanese stocks led the way. The Nikkei rose by 0.3% while S&P500 e-minis futures gained 0.2%. After failing to reach the 5% threshold, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United...

The stock market made a few gains in the Asian session of trading on Wednesday, as the rise of global bond yields and the oil price paused before the Federal Reserve's decision later that day. After falling for four sessions in a row, MSCI's "broadest" index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fluctuated from gains to losses. It was last up by 0.2% and led by a gain of 0.8% in Korean shares. S&P 500 futures e-minis grew by 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% overnight on Wall Street. This is the?second consecutive decline as the yield of the 10-year Treasury...

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated on Monday that a ban on U.S. fuel or oil exports was unlikely to help lower energy prices for consumers in the midst of the Iran War. Burgum, speaking to reporters at the G20 meeting on energy in Houston, said: "We'd consider an export prohibition if it actually could lower prices. But that's not true." Burgum, a Trump appointee, stated that a ban on the export of oil, gasoline, or diesel could result in retaliatory measures from other countries. This could harm consumers in California, whose energy imports are largely dependent on. Burgum stated,...

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Brent oil is now back at $107 a barrel as the Houthis are closing in on Bab el-Mandeb. This is the second key route for oil exports from the Middle East. Ship tracking sites indicate that vessels continue to use the narrow waterway near the southern 'entrance to the Red Sea. However, the Houthis have reportedly warned them they will strike Saudi Arabian vessels if they try to pass. The Suez Canal is still open to tankers to reach Asian markets. However, the journey...

On Monday, Asian share markets fell as oil prices spiked again due to supply concerns. Investors were also bracing for interest rate hikes this week in the U.S. and Japan. Brent rose 3% as new strikes against Saudi Arabia and?ships?in the Gulf tested nerves. This was after an attack on Saudi oil pipelines and an advance of Yemen's Houthis, which threatened to worsen wartime disruptions to global energy supply. The meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab States, which was scheduled to take place in Oman on Monday, for the purpose of discussing a deal regarding opening the Strait of Hormuz...

Venezuela's state-run energy company PDVSA ?has restarted the fluid catalytic cracker of ?its 310,000-barrel-per-day Cardon refinery, ?three sources said ?on Friday, ?complementing output of the neighboring Amuay refinery, whose catalytic cracker is also in service. Power outages affected refineries that are part of Paraguana Refining Center earlier this year. Since then, PDVSA has tried to restart the operational units, especially those critical for producing gasoline and Diesel. Sources said that as of 'this week', Cardon has three crude distillation unit, a naphtha Reformer, and a 'catalytic Cracker, while Amuay has two crude distillation units?and the catalytic cracked, which are operational...

The International Energy Agency said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply dropped by 2.3 million barrels per month to 6,000,000 bpd, its lowest level in over 30 years. Attacks on Saudi energy plants were cited as the reason. In a recent report, the IEA noted that groups affiliated with Yemen's Houthis had targeted ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi Arabia Jazan refinery, as well as shipping near Yanbu. Iran-backed militias used drones in Iraq to attack Saudi Arabia Abqaiq's oil processing site. Saudi Arabia's own assessment of its supply of 7.122?million bpd in August was lower than the...

The International Energy Agency announced on Friday that global oil demand and supply will be lower than originally thought. This is because the Iran War has not been resolved, and the return to 'normal Middle East flows' until 2027 is delayed. Fuel prices are also expected to rise as a result. Crude prices have reached $110 per barrel for the first week since May due to an increase in attacks on oil tankers along Middle East shipping routes. This increase is overshadowed, however, by the record-breaking price of diesel. The IEA has now predicted that the world's oil supply will...

Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. As expected, the Bank of Japan increased interest rates. However, it lowered the yen's value by sounding less hawkish than other central banks. The 'hike', which comes just three months after the last rate increase, is a significant break from the pattern of twice-yearly increases. Even Friday's decision was dovish, with two dissenting voices. By the middle of next summer, it is expected that US interest rates will increase by three. Two more are expected for Japan. The?newsconference of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will...

High spot prices are deterring buyers from China and South Asia, resulting in Asia's lowest September imports in eight years. According to data compiled by Kpler, the top-importing continent will see arrivals of?20.09 million tons of super-chilled gasoline in September. This is the lowest figure for this month since September 2018 when 19.88 million arrived. Asia's imports have dropped?from 22.27 millions tons in September of last year and also from 22.25 in August. The slump in Asian LNG demand has freed up cargoes to Europe, where it is struggling to store enough natural gas ahead of the winter. The European...

Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. It turns out that the man?Trump hired for a rate cut actually raised rates instead. Kevin Warsh, the Fed's chief economist, delivered the first rate hike in over three years. He did it in lock-step with his colleagues. Warsh did not provide any forward guidance after the Fed’s last rate decision. He insisted he would not fixate on a single data point. The markets are aware that hikes can be like cockroaches. If you see one there's probably more behind the wall. The dot...

Treasury yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have risen to their highest level in 19 years. This is just as Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent is preparing to speak to Congress, and the Federal Reserve begins its two-day critical meeting. Government bonds sold across the globe overnight as the prospect of rising interest rates and energy prices remained a primary aggravating factor. Japanese 10-year yields rose back to above 3%. Brent crude prices rose above $107 a barrel again on Tuesday after a brief drop on Monday, following President Trump’s suggestion that Russia and Ukraine could reach an agreement to spare...

Asian shares struggled on Tuesday, as investors considered Middle East tensions. Industry figures also called for a halt in AI development. Meanwhile, higher oil prices and bond yields heightened caution ahead of 'key' central bank meetings taking place in the U.S. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, launched a new offensive on Saudi Arabia Monday. Riyadh had blamed Iran-backed fighters based in Iraq for an assault on the east-west oil pipeline of the kingdom that could disrupt up to 4% global supply. Gulf Arab states have also delayed planned talks with Iran. Brent crude was up by 1.21% at...

Singapore, Asia's main fuel trading hub, has seen its oil product stockpiles rise to a two-month high, according to government data released Thursday. The increase in stocks of light and middle distillates was also noted. Enterprise Singapore reported that the combined onshore oil products inventories stood at 40.47 millions barrels for the week ending September 9. This compares to 39.04million barrels one week earlier. Multiple?trade sources this week said that September exports to Asia are expected to remain robust for diesel and jet-fuel, but may slow down for gasoline because of margin concerns. Diesel was the major concern in some...

The energy and bond markets have been on edge again after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that the Iran War would not end before the midterm elections in November. This came as the Gulf was hit with the most intense attacks in the conflict to date. Markets are awaiting the likely rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank and the first U.S. On Thursday, we'll have an update on inflation as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to have failed with his bond-buyback operation. On Wednesday, crude oil reached its highest price since late May, above $100 per barrel,...

Brent crude climbed to $100 per barrel Wednesday, keeping Asian stock markets calm as the attacks intensified in the Middle East. This stoked inflation fears ahead of closely-watched U.S. consumer price indices. As traders exited their short positions, the yen rose to a near seven-month high against the dollar. This was due to expectations of faster Bank of Japan rate hikes as well as a possible rush of Japanese capital repatriation. The euro climbed ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy announcement, as markets were expecting an increase amid inflationary pressures due to the Iran War. Iranian-backed Houthis launched attacks...

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has risen this month. However it has remained below $100 per barrel despite the recent escalation of the U.S. - Iran conflict which has caused disruptions in Gulf exports via the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea. According to Argus, Crude Oil?shipments are now at 11 million barrels a day (bpd), down from 18 million bpd prior to the Iran War seven months ago. What are the factors that influence oil prices? SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES CAN FLOW?THROUGH HORMIZ Claudio Galimberti, Rystad's Chief Economical Officer, stated that in the week prior to fighting...

Investors were on edge Monday as rising?oil costs, the conflict in the Middle East, and political unrest in Europe kept them on edge. Stocks drifted lower ahead of important U.S. data on inflation later this week. Tehran announced that it would declare a restricted area outside the Strait of Hormuz within days after U.S. forces struck three Iranian tankers, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles on two U.S. Navy vessels. Brent crude futures have risen 1.3%, to $97.5 per barrel, the highest in seven weeks. Oil prices rose almost 8% in the last week, and are now...

Treasury yields, the dollar and S&P?500 all rose on Friday as U.S.?job creation?accelerated and unemployment rate remained steady. Investors are looking forward to the consumer inflation report next week as a key factor in this determination. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 positions last month, following a 21,000-job increase that was upwardly revised in July. Economists surveyed by predicted an increase of '56,000 following a previous reported decline of 23,000 jobs in July. Last week, the yield on 10-year benchmark U.S. notes increased by 1.21 basis points to 4.774%. Just after the report, it was 4.792%. The yields on two-year...

Bond yields fell on Thursday, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments signaled a willingness for the Fed to be patient in raising interest rates. Waller said in remarks at a NEXT Newsmaker event that if upcoming data?confirmed?inflation pressures were cooling off, he was inclined to argue for keeping interest rates steady at the next policy meeting of the U.S. central bank. In remarks for a NEXT Newsmaker, Waller said that if upcoming data 'confirmed' a cooling of inflation pressures, he would be inclined to advocate keeping interest rates constant at the next meeting of the U.S. Central Bank. After...