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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Gold-plated fear

By Mike Dolan Jan 26th - What's important in the U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan Editor-at-Large of Finance and Markets Gold was unstoppable Monday, as it reached $5,000 per ounce at its highest level ever. It has risen?more that 80% in the last 12 months. What is the cause of the recent surge? Pick your favorite: a falling dollar; a fractured world order; renewed trade tensions; concerns about Fed independence and an inflationary horizon. The central?bank?buying boom and retail speculation continue. Looking ahead, it appears that gold and precious metals, with silver also at record levels, will...

Crude Oil

Sources say that Mexico is considering stopping oil shipments from Cuba due to Trump's retaliation.

Three sources with knowledge of the discussions say that the Mexican government is considering whether it should continue sending oil to Cuba. There are growing concerns within the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum about the possibility that the United States could retaliate against Mexico for this policy. The policy is vital to the Communist-run Caribbean island. The U.S. blocked oil tankers from Venezuela in December, and President Nicolas Maduro was captured this month. This has halted Venezuelan oil deliveries to Cuba. Mexico is now the sole supplier of energy for the island which suffers from massive blackouts and energy shortages....

Energy Markets

Valero and Phillips 66 purchase Venezuelan oil as part of Washington’s deal with Caracas

Two sources confirmed that Valero had purchased a cargo from Venezuelan crude oil on Wednesday. This is one of the initial deals made by U.S. Gulf Coast refining companies as part of Washington’s agreement with Caracas for exports of up to 50,000,000 barrels. One source said that Phillips 66 had also bought a cargo. Sources said that both companies bought crude oil from Vitol. The crude was then traded to be delivered to the U.S. Gulf Coast for a discount between $8.50 and $9.50 per barrel compared to Brent crude. After President Nicolas Maduro was ousted in January, the U.S....

Crude Oil

U.S. pressures Iraq for Iranian influence, as it controls the oil dollars

Sources say that the U.S. is pushing Iraqi politicians to avoid armed groups in the new government Iraqi MPs with Iran links are to be excluded from the cabinet The Federal Reserve Bank controls the dollars of Iraq's oil revenues Maha El Dahan and Humeyra Pauk DUBAI/WASHINGTON - Four sources have confirmed that Washington has threatened to impose sanctions on the Iraqi government if Iran-backed groups were included in the new government. This could include a potential cut-off of the vital oil revenue coming from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This warning is the most stark example of...

Fossil Fuels

New Ukraine peace talks will help the Russian rouble to rise 3.6% against the US dollar by 2026.

The Russian rouble has strengthened 3.6% against U.S. dollars so far in January. This is mainly due to new 'hopes' for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, as U.S.?Russian?and Ukrainian negotiators are scheduled to meet in the United Arab Emirates. Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi for two days to discuss the issue of territorial disputes. The rouble was flat by 1215 GMT after strengthening 1.3% on Thursday, in anticipation of the visit from the U.S. Steve Witkoff, the special envoy and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's daughter-in-law. Due to Western'sanctions,' the dollar trades...

Refined Products

The Kazakh power outage and Trump's 'armada' remarks about Iran are driving up oil prices.

Prices of oil?recovered?on Friday, after U.S. president Donald Trump renewed his threats against Iran. This sparked fears that military action could disrupt crude supply while outages are occurring in Kazakhstan. Brent crude futures rose by 76 cents or 1.2% to $64.82 per barrel at 1026 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude?was up $75 cents or 1.3% at $60.11. Both benchmarks were set at weekly gains of around 1.1%. Prices rose earlier in the week due to U.S. president Donald?Trump’s actions on Greenland, but fell by about 2% on Thursday after he backtracked on tariff threats and ruled out a military...

Crude Oil

Oil drops 2% after Trump toned down his threats towards Greenland and Iran

The oil price dropped by about 2% on Thursday, reaching a new low. This was after U.S. president Donald?Trump backed down on his threats against Greenland and Iran and on positive developments that could help end Russia's war in Ukraine. Brent futures dropped $1.18 or 1.8% to settle at $64.06 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however, fell $1.26 or 2.1% to settle at $59.36, which is a new one-week low. Trump claimed that he had secured permanent U.S. access in Greenland through a deal with NATO. The head of the alliance said allies must increase their commitment...

Oil & Gas

Official: US allows China to buy Venezuelan oil, but not at prices that 'undercut Maduro's days'

A U.S. official stated on Thursday that the Trump administration allows China to purchase Venezuelan crude oil, but not at the "unfair and undercutting" prices which Caracas had sold it at before the U.S. ousted President Nicolas Maduro. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while the oil would be sold globally, the U.S. government has insisted that the majority is sold to them. The U.S. claims it will continue to control Venezuela's oil sales after seizing Maduro in January. The official stated that "thanks to President Donald Trump's successful and decisive law enforcement operation, Venezuelans will...

Oil Refineries

VaroPreem CEO VaroPreem says that refining is "critical infrastructure" for Europe

VaroPreem Chief Executive Dev Sanyal stated on Wednesday that Europe must consider oil refining as "critical". He is preparing for further consolidation in a industry battered by decades-long closures and increased competition from newer foreign plants. Europe closed dozens of refineries over the last 30 years due to a decline in oil production and older plants struggling to compete with newer facilities in China and India. The energy company's boss said that the continent couldn't afford to lose more capacity. He was speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, which took place in Davos, Switzerland. The entire European...

Oil & Gas

Sources say that India's Reliance will buy Russian oil compliant with sanctions in February and march.

Four sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that India's Reliance industries Ltd, the operator of the largest refinery in the world, will'receive' sanctions-compliant Russian crude oil between February and March, after a one month pause. Reliance received its last shipment of Russian crude in December, after it secured a U.S. concession allowing it to extend the deadline for ending business with Rosneft (a Russian oil company sanctioned by the U.S. government) beyond November 21. Sources said that Reliance, like other Indian refiners will purchase Russian oil from non sanctioned sellers. They did not elaborate on how many cargoes...

Crude Oil

Indian refiners change oil strategy, trim Russian purchases and focus on the Middle East

Indian refiners are changing their crude import strategies in order to move away from Russia, the top supplier of crude oil. They will instead 'boost' imports from the Middle East. This could help New Delhi clinch a deal with the United States for lower tariffs. India was the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude oil after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. However, the trade brought backlash from Western nations who targeted Russia's energy industry with sanctions because they claimed that oil revenues helped it fund the conflict. As Middle?East producers keep global markets well supplied, prices are...

Energy Markets

As Iran unrest eases, geopolitical risks are reduced.

The oil prices fell on Monday, after increasing during the previous session. Civil unrest in Iran has subsided and the likelihood of an attack by the United States to disrupt the Middle Eastern major's supply has decreased. Brent crude traded at $63.85 per barrel at 0734 GMT. This is a?28-cents-or-0.44% decrease. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 36 cents or 0.61% to $59.08 per barrel. The contract expires Tuesday, and the March contract, which is more active, was $59.10 down 24 cents or 0.40%. The unrest was quelled by the violent crackdown in Iran on protests sparked by economic hardship. Officials...

Europe

Oil & Gas

Even as US winter storm reduces crude production, oil prices continue to fall

The price of oil fell on Tuesday, despite a major winter storm that hit the crude production in the U.S. Gulf Coast and affected refineries. Brent crude futures fell 28 cents or 0.4% to $65.31 per barrel at 0145 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $60.39 per barrel, down by 24 cents or 0.4%. Analysts and traders estimate that oil producers in the U.S. lost up to two million barrels of oil per day, or about 15% of the nation's production, over the weekend. This was due to a winter storm which swept through the country and put strain...

Crude Oil

Urals crude differentials reduce on wider discount at Indian ports

Urals crude differentials were reduced on Monday as discounts for the 'grade' to dated Brent reached their highest levels since 2022 in India. Urals oil cargoes that will be delivered in Indian ports in February are trading at a discount of $10 per barrel compared to dated Brent. This is a rise of $3-$5 per barrelle compared to estimates for cargoes loaded in the autumn months last season and near?the largest discount ever recorded. Three OPEC+ delegates said that OPEC+ will likely keep its pause in?oil production increases for March during a meeting on 'Sunday. Prices are rising because of...

Crude Oil

Gold exceeds $5,000; yen gains on fears of intervention

Gold surged above $5,000 per ounce?Monday. This was boosted by safety flows amid dollar strength following a turbulent last week, where investors were rattled by tensions regarding Greenland and Iran, while markets remained on edge after violent spikes of the yen. After sharp spikes in the yen on Friday, speculation about possible intervention grew. Sources say that the New York Federal Reserve checked rates on Friday. This raises the possibility of a joint U.S. and Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline. The market is inclined to short the yen, but with the possibility of coordination it is no longer...

Western Europe

East Asia

Crude Oil

Dollar wobbles as stocks rise on hopes of earnings offset by Trump's Korea tariffs

Investors hoped that a barrage?U.S. Mega-cap earnings were a big factor, but uncertainty due to President Donald Trump's tariff moves against South Korea capped broader gains. Trump increased tariffs to 25% on autos, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports to the U.S. from Asia's 4th-largest economy. The Nasdaq Futures rose 0.2%, as investors prepared for the earnings of the Magnificent Seven, including Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla, on Wednesday. Even South Korea's KOSPI reversed earlier losses and was last to gain 0.8%. Silver surged 6.4% to $110.60 per ounce and is not far off the record set just on Monday. Christopher Louney is...

Energy Markets

How Green is your rally?

By Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! Greenland will soon be a "piece of ice", but the Arctic saga of this week is still significant. This week's Arctic saga is a reminder that President Donald Trump will always find a way out, even when it didn't seem possible a few hours ago. It also shows that no deal made with the U.S. should be regarded as final. The major U.S. equity indexes suffered their largest one-day percentage drop...

Crude Oil

The dollar is cooled by Trump's Arctic pantomime in the morning bid for Europe

Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The Bank of Japan only did enough to keep the yen stable in the Asia session. They also boosted inflation forecasts, but this didn't deter the market from expecting two rate hikes for the year. Dollar was also under pressure in general as investors may have anticipated that the Greenland drama of the past week will make the U.S. less attractive as an investment destination. The world's net long U.S. positions total $27,6 trillion. This leaves a lot of room to trim. After retracting...

Energy Markets

After a selloff, Japanese bonds rebound after a stock market shaken by geopolitical concerns

Asian stocks continued to lose ground on Wednesday. This was largely due to the heightened tensions surrounding U.S. threats of acquiring Greenland in advance of President Donald Trump’s Davos address, while Japanese bonds bounced back sharply after a recent meltdown. The fear of the "Sell America" trade, which emerged in the wake of last year's "Liberation Day tariff announcements" in April, gripped the markets overnight as Wall Street fell over 2% and the U.S. Dollar suffered its largest fall in more than a month. This sent investors running to gold. It soared by 2.1%, reaching a record high of $4,865...

Crude Oil

MORNING BID AMERICAS - Flood the zone

By Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! The week began with a bang and it is yet to be seen if it will end on a whimper. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Justice Department threatened to indict him on Sunday, drawing widespread condemnation. In a wide-ranging, multifaceted interview with President Donald Trump on Wednesday, Trump stated that he did not plan to fire Powell and also hinted at a possible delay in intervening in Iran....

Fossil Fuels

China's oil imports in 2025 and December inflows are both at record levels

China's crude imports increased 17% in December compared to a year earlier, and total imports for 2025 will rise 4.4%. The daily volumes of crude oil imported in December 2025 and throughout the year will be at all-time records. According to the General Administration of Customs, the world's biggest crude importer imported 55.97 millions metric tons of petroleum in December. This is equivalent to 13,18 million barrels of oil per day. The increase was 10% compared to 50.89 in November. The data shows that China will import 557.73 millions tons of crude oil by 2025 or 11,55?million barrels per day,...

Energy Markets

Morning Bid Europe-Yen's Pain is Nikkei Gain as Records Tumble

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Tokyo is back from its holiday in a big way, with the stock market rising by 3% and reaching a record high. Investors are 'welcoming a weakening of the yen as well as the possibility of more aggressive fiscal stimulus. Taiwan and South Korea also set records, while China reached a four-year high. The yen also hit multi-year lows against the Swiss franc, euro and a variety of other currencies. Shorting the yen saved the dollar from embarrassment as it rose to 158.65 after...

Energy Markets

As Trump-Fed dispute deepens, stocks wobble and the dollar drops

Dollar fell and U.S. Equity Futures?eased after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell claimed that the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal?indictment. This stoked concerns about the independence of the central bank. S&P futures fell 0.5%, and gold reached a?another?record?high as a reaction to the intensification of the dispute between U.S. president Donald Trump and Fed. The Swiss Franc gained 0.4%, to 0.7979 dollars. The euro rose 0.17% at $1.1656. The news is unsettling for traders, but the immediate impact on interest rates is not clear. Fed funds futures has added about three basis point more in cuts in this...

Crude Oil

Morning Bid Europe-Powell’s punch back shocks markets

Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets Investors still can't wrap their minds around the latest escalation of the fight between U.S. president Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell is fighting back against the "effort" to control interest rates and the Fed. The growing unrest in Iran where, according to an international rights group, more than 500 people were killed, underscored also the geopolitical issues that markets will be navigating by the beginning of 2026. This is why safe-haven assets are well supported. The markets opened trading on...

Refined Products

Sources say that China has imposed import quotas on crude oil to ex-Sinochem refining plants

Two trading sources familiar with the matter confirmed on Friday that China has granted crude oil import quotas to three'refineries' in Shandong Province, which were sold last year to independent operators by'state-run Sinochem Group. One source said that the quotas were given to Zhenghe Group, Huaxing Petrochemical and Shandong Changyi Petrochemical. The total annual volume was around 12 million metric tons (240 000 barrels per day). The quotas were not clear whether they covered the "full" annual amount or only a portion of it. Changyi, Zhenghe and Huaxing are now controlled by Shandong Qicheng Petrochemical. The new quotas require that...

Oil & Gas Refining

Fuel oil prices in Asia are higher than those in the West as more Venezuelan oil is diverted to the US

Friday, the premium for high-sulfur fuel oil in Asia over the West reached its highest level in eight months as traders expect more Venezuelan crude oil and fuel oil to be shipped to the United States than to Asia in the coming months. LSEG data show that the East-West 380cst HSFO swap for the first month of 2026, a measure used to compare HSFO prices in Asia, Europe and America, has risen above $27 a barrel, a price last seen in May 2025. This value has nearly doubled since the beginning of 2026. It is more profitable for traders to...

Energy Markets

Stocks tremble as investors consider geopolitical data and US data, while oil prices rise

Oil prices stabilized on Thursday, after their recent decline. Stocks were off to a rough start as investors assessed implications of deepening?geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. labor market data. The top U.S. officials stated on Wednesday that the country "needs" to control Venezuela's oil revenue and sales indefinitely in order to stabilize the economy of the country, rebuild its oil industry and ensure the nation acts in America's best interests. As part of Donald Trump's aggressive campaign to control oil flows in America, the U.S. also seized on the same day two Venezuelan-linked oil tanks in the Atlantic Ocean, including...