Latest News

Buy the dip and worry about jobs later.

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The dollar and U.S. stock futures are both rising, so it's a good time to buy the dip. The Nikkei slipped as a result of the Wall Street crash on Friday and the rise in the yen. However, the rest Asia did better.

Fed fund futures were priced at 65 basis points of rate cuts in December. However, that has now dropped to 60 basis points. This is a far cry from the 33 basis points seen prior to Friday's disappointing U.S. employment report. September still has an 83% chance of an easing.

The market lowered the Fed's rate by 25 basis points on Friday, since borrowing costs are based on yields and not the funds rate in the States.

The yield on ten-year bonds also dropped by a large 14 basis points, but they met resistance at around 4.20%. This is a level that has been difficult to breach since October of last year.

In the long term, the downward revisions of payrolls have seriously questioned the U.S. claim for economic superiority and the crown of exceptionalism that the dollar holds. This was further tarnished when President Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The institution had a sterling reputation of scrupulous integrity that earned the trust of international investors.

Or at least it used to. Trump has said he will choose a new BLS head in the coming days. Will the new BLS head be an independent statistician who is committed to providing reliable data or a Trump ally eager to please his master?

U.S. assets currently enjoy a premium for trusts that will become increasingly difficult to maintain when Trump bends the government to his will.

Trump has also floated the idea that he will use some of the windfall resulting from tariffs in order to pay 'dividends' to lucky Americans - with special checks bearing the "TRUMP" symbol, no doubt.

You tax everyone who buys imported goods, regardless of whether they choose to do so, and use a portion of the money you earn to give to people you like, rather than to the government.

A U.S. appellate court heard arguments late last week on the legality Trump's "reciprocal levies" and seemed inclined to support the initial ruling that the tariffs are illegal.

A ruling of this nature would still likely be appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has been known to favor unbridled presidential powers. If the tariffs are found to be illegal, all trade agreements and ongoing deals will be nullified, as well as the Treasury's money.

What a great idea!

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Swiss CPI for July

Want to stay up-to-date with the latest tariffs?

Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.

(source: Reuters)