Energy Markets

International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the global oil market will have a surplus of up to 4,09 million barrels a day next year as OPEC+ and its rivals increase production and demand slows. In its November monthly report, the IEA stated that "global oil market balances look increasingly lopsided as global oil supply continues to grow while oil demand remains modest by historic standards." The Agency expects the global oil supply to increase by approximately 3.1 million barrels a day (bpd), and 2.5 million bpd in 2020, both up around 100,000 bpd per month. The IEA's 2026 implied surplus...

The world stock market was looking to return to record levels on Thursday, following the end of the largest government shutdown in history. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, which is under increasing pressure due its devaluation against the euro and the dollar has reached a new record low. The STOXX 600 index in Europe made a steady debut with a nearly 1% increase from France's CAC 40, pushing both indexes up to their all-time highs and offsetting the more than 4% drop from German engineering giant Siemens reported disappointing earnings. The U.S. Stock Futures fluctuated from a slight negative to a...

Oil prices fell on Thursday, continuing losses from the previous day, after a report indicating rising crude inventories at the U.S. heightened concerns that global supplies are more than enough to meet the current fuel demand. Brent crude futures dropped 9 cents or 0.1% to $62.62 per barrel at 0336 GMT after falling 3.8% the day before. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 11 cents or 0.2% to $58.38 per barrel, continuing a 4.2% drop on Wednesday. According to market sources, who cited American Petroleum Institute data, U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.3m barrels during the week ending November 7,...

According to sources familiar with the plant's operations, Marathon Petroleum has restarted the last repaired portion of the residual hydrotreater at its 631,000 barrels per day (bpd), Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City. Jamal Kheiry, the spokesperson for Marathon, declined to comment on operations at its refinery Wednesday. Sources said that the last section was a hydrocracker located on the RHU of 64,000 bpd, which had been heavily damaged in a fire in June. The hydrocracker should restart by the week's end. Sources told us in October that the hydrocracker repair work would be completed in November. A restart was...

The oil prices dropped for the second day in a row on Thursday, as a report from the industry showed that crude inventories were rising in the U.S. Brent crude futures dropped 3 cents or 0.03% to $62.69 per barrel at 0234 GMT after falling 3.8% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 5 cents or 0.09% to $58.44 per barrel, continuing its 4.2% drop on Wednesday. According to market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute data on Wednesday, U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.3m barrels during the week ending November 7. The API data showed that gasoline and...

The U.S. Energy Department announced on Wednesday that they had purchased 900,000 crude oil barrels for almost $56 million. This is a small step towards replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Department documents stated that Trafigura Trading would supply 600,000 bbls and Energy Transfer Crude Marketing would supply 300,000 bbls. An Energy Department document stated that the solicitation for up to one million barrels was made in October. Energy Department announced that the oil would be delivered to Bryan Mound SPR in Texas in December and early January. The SPR is a reserve that has been hollowed out in salt...

The U.S. Ambassador to London attacked Britain's nuclear policy on Wednesday in a rare and strong criticism, just before a decision is expected on the development of the site in North Wales. The UK is expected to announce on Thursday that its first small modular reactor nuclear power plant will be located on Anglesey Island, a North Wales island, where an old nuclear station closed in 2015. The United States was pushing for an extensive nuclear project. On Wednesday, Ambassador Warren Stephens made a strong rebuke to Britain's decision. Stephens stated that he was "extremely disappointed" by the decision. "There...

A report released by OPEC on Wednesday showed that the world oil supply will match demand in 2020, reflecting the production increase of OPEC+. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a 2026 supply deficit. OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies - has increased its production targets by approximately 2.9 million barrels a day - or about 2.7% of the global supply – since April. The company plans to stop production increases in the first quarter 2026, amid predictions that there will be an oversupply. In a report released...

The oil prices are little changed today after they rose in the previous session. This is because of the expectation that the end of the longest U.S. government shut down could increase demand in this country, the world's largest crude consumer. Brent crude futures fell 8 cents or 0.12% to $65.08 per barrel at 0106 GMT, after rising 1.7% on the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 7 cents or 0.11% to $60.97 per barrel after gaining 1.5% the previous session. The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote on Wednesday afternoon on a bill,...

The chairman of Bulgaria's state reserves agency announced on Tuesday that the country has one month's worth of gasoline left to prepare for U.S. Sanctions against Russia's Lukoil. Lukoil owns Bulgaria's biggest oil refinery, as well as its storage and pipeline infrastructure. Last month, the U.S., Britain, and France imposed sanctions against Lukoil, and Rosneft - Russia's largest oil companies - over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. This threatened their operations, which still stretch across Europe. The U.S. sanction, scheduled to start on November 21, has raised concerns over fuel supplies in Bulgaria ahead of winter, where Lukoil operates the Burgas...

Saudi Aramco's decision to reduce the price of crude oil it sells to Asian refiners in December has been seen as an attempt to gain market share, amid fears of global oversupply. The reduction in Saudi crude oil was lower than the forecasts of Asian refiners. It seems to be a way for the world's largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, to remain competitive against other grades while giving it flexibility should China or India reject Russian barrels due U.S. sanctions. Aramco lowered last week its official selling price for its benchmark Arab Light for Asian customers by $1 per barrel...

Asian stocks rose Tuesday, while gold and Nasdaq enjoyed their biggest gains in months on signs that a deal would be reached to end the U.S. Government shutdown. Gold rose by nearly 3% over night and was comfortably above the $4,100 mark in Asia's morning. The Nasdaq gained 2.3%, recovering much of the losses caused last week by nerves about the valuation and profitability for AI firms. South Korea's Kospi also recovered from last week's losses and gained 2.1% early in trade. Japan's Nikkei increased 0.7%. Hong Kong and China's markets opened higher. S&P futures rose 0.1%. The Senate cleared...

JPMorgan reported on Thursday that around 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil per day, or about a third, of the country's potential seaborne exports, are still in tankers due to the U.S. sanction against Rosneft, and Lukoil. In the first sanctions that President Donald Trump has imposed directly on Russia since his second term began, the U.S. gave itself a deadline of November 21 to end all business with Rosneft or Lukoil. The sanctions have caused Lukoil to struggle, forcing the company to sell foreign assets, and disrupting operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria. According to trading sources, the overall...

The market for liquefied gas is preparing itself for an increase in supply, mostly from the top exporter, the United States. However, it is not clear how low the spot price will need to fall to clear these additional volumes. According to commodity analysts Kpler, the global supply of super-chilled gasoline is forecast to reach 475 million metric tonnes in 2026. This represents a 10.2% increase over the 431 millions tons predicted for 2025. This figure is comparable to South Korea's total annual demand, which is the third largest LNG importer in the world behind China and Japan. Go Katayama,...

Several sources familiar with the situation said that Saudi Arabia will export to China at least 36,000,000 barrels of crude, a slight decrease from the previous month. As some Chinese refineries prepare for maintenance, and independent refiners wait for Beijing's 2026 import quotas, the expected drop in oil supply for the second consecutive month from the top oil exporter to world's biggest importer comes at a time when many refineries in China are preparing for maintenance. Sources said that one of the Chinese buyers has reduced their December volume because they have already lifted the majority of their full-year contract...

According to a draft version of the stimulus package presented by premier Sanae Takaichi on Wednesday, Japan's government is expected to pledge to increase its spending "without hesitation" in order to help an economy that's on the verge of emerging from stagnation. The draft doesn't mention how much money will be spent, but it does call for "bold strategic" investments in growth and crisis management areas. This is a clear indication that the package will include hefty spending. The draft said that the government would spend "boldly and without hesitation" on the necessary policies. Drafts of the package showed that...

Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The U.S. Government is about to reopen, restoring potential pay for unpaid federal employees and ending the drought of economic data which has left the Federal Reserve virtually blinded for more than one month. The latest sign that normalcy is returning could be Congressmen taking advantage of the free publicity. Thousands of flights have been delayed or cancelled due to the shutdown. Some Congressmen are carpooling with their colleagues, or taking a 16-hour Harley Davidson across the country to return to Washington D.C....

Japan condemned as "absolutely inacceptable" the extension of a Russian entry ban to another 30 citizens, including a spokesperson for the foreign ministry, following Tokyo's sanctions against Moscow's nearly 4-year-old conflict in Ukraine. Japan, following similar moves made by Western nations in September, had imposed additional sanctions on Russian individuals, companies and other entities, as well as lowered its cap on Russian crude oil at sea. The Russian Foreign Ministry published a list on Tuesday of Japanese who are now facing an "indefinite" ban. Toshihiro kitamura was added to the list, along with journalists and academics. Minoru Kihara, the Chief...

The U.S. Congress appeared to be on track to end the shutdown, and traders were looking for guidance in the absence any clues from the government data services. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.1% early in trading, as House of Representatives members prepared to vote on legislation that would restore funding for government agencies and bring an end to the shutdown which began on October 1, and is the longest in U.S. History. The Australian stock market led the gains with a 0.2% gain as lithium mining stocks drove commodity stocks up, while Japan’s Topix rose 0.6%. Analysts...

The dollar held steady on Tuesday as global shares rose, boosted by the relief that the U.S. shutdown will soon be over. However, gains were moderated by persistent concerns about the valuations of the technology sector. European shares rose early in trading. The gains were led by London's FTSE 100 which reached record highs. This was due to the pound falling after British employment data gave investors greater confidence that the Bank of England would cut rates next month in order to boost growth. On Monday, the U.S. Senate approved a deal that will restore funding to the U.S. government...

Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The longest U.S. Government shutdown in history appears to be nearing an end. Traders are riding a wave that started late last week. The Senate has approved a compromise which would restore funding to the U.S. Government. The bill now heads to the House where Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to pass it by Wednesday. The Nasdaq and gold have both posted their best gains for months. Gold is trying to regain the momentum it had in October, when it reached record highs....

PetroChina, a major oil company in China, announced on Monday that it will close its Yunnan Petrochemical Plant from November 15th, 2025 to January 15th, 2026 for maintenance. It said that the overhaul covered about 23,000 tasks, with a broad scope and considerable depth. During the maintenance period, operational and supply adjustments will take place. According to a July report by the company, this refinery in Southwestern China produces mainly China VI standard gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for Southwestern China as well as Southeast Asia. The report stated that since its launch in 2017, the company has processed 83,000,000...

It was not clear what the 190+ countries attending the COP30 would be discussing during the two week U.N. Summit in Brazil's Amazonian city of Belem. It's also unclear how they will handle controversial issues such as the 2023 pledge to stop using polluting sources of energy and their demand for funding to achieve this. The biggest question was whether or not countries would want to reach a final deal, which is difficult to do in an era of global politics that has been fractious and the U.S.'s efforts to block a move away from fossil-fuels. After years of COP...

Investors worried about the sustainability and growth of artificial intelligence stocks, while U.S. Treasury rates continued to decline. An index of semiconductors fell 4.5% on Friday. The Nasdaq has dropped more than 4% this week, and is on course to have its largest weekly percentage decline since late March. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced his tariffs in April. Since then, the Nasdaq stock has gained over 50%. After our comments, we're still seeing the AI market sell off. The AI race is on. There's a recalibration in multiples, and that's the main weakness," said Michael O'Rourke. Chief market strategist...