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Oil prices increase as Fed rates are cut and Trump-Putin negotiations loom.

Oil prices rose by about 1% Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump warned that "severe consequences would follow" if the talks he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine failed. Also, there were expectations of a U.S. rate cut coming up next month to spur oil demand.

Interest rates are used by central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve to control inflation. Lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs for consumers and boost economic growth. Brent crude futures rose 87 cents or 1.3% to $66.50 a barrel at 10:53 a.m. (1453 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) crude climbed 88 cents or 1.4% to $63.53. These price gains lifted both crude benchmarks from the technically oversold zone for the first three days. Brent closed Tuesday at its lowest price since the 5th of June, and WTI at its lowest price since the 2nd of June due to the bearish data on supply and inventory from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as the International Energy Agency.

On Thursday, the U.S. praised the "sincere attempts" of the U.S. in ending the war in Ukraine. They also floated the possibility of an agreement.

nuclear arms deal

Before a Friday summit in Alaska, Trump will be meeting with his allies. Allies of the United States in Europe have encouraged Trump to be firm.

Russia was the world's second largest crude oil producer in 2024, behind the United States. Any agreement that eases sanctions against Moscow will likely increase the amount of Russian Oil available to export on global markets. Trump warned on Wednesday of "severe consequences," if Putin did not agree to peace with Ukraine. The U.S. President did not specify the possible consequences, but warned of economic sanctions in the event that the Friday meeting is fruitless.

Trump has threatened secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian crude oil, principally China and India, in the event that Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine.

Rystad Energy stated in a note to clients that "the uncertainty of U.S. - Russia peace talks continues adding a bullish premium on risk, given Russian oil purchasers could face greater economic pressure." Nevertheless, some analysts remained skeptical that Trump would take any action that would disrupt oil supply.

FED RATE CUT

Oil prices were also boosted by expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates this September. The majority of traders believe that a rate cut will occur next month, after U.S. Consumer Prices increased moderately in July.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-percentage-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

But a jump in U.S. wholesale prices last month looks to have all but erased the possibility that the Fed will deliver a jumbo-sized half-percentage-point interest rate cut in September, though expectations for a quarter-percentage-point move next month, followed by another in October, remain intact.

The Wall Street Journal reported that San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly has rejected the idea of a rate cut of 50 basis points at the central bank meeting on September 16-17.

A survey by the Statistics Office of major industry players revealed that in Europe, oil and gas investment is expected to peak in Europe this year and then start decreasing next year.

Norway produces around 2% of the world's oil. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, Norway became Europe's biggest supplier of pipeline natural gas. Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Robert Harvey, Katya Glubkova, and Siyi LIU in Singapore. Editing by Jan Harvey, Paul Simao.

(source: Reuters)