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The U.S. economy has been undergoing a transformation. One of the most remarkable aspects is its escape from the?significant cyclical depression since mid-2009. This 17-year period has accelerated the stock market's boom and facilitated funding for the AI transformation. This is not the "Great Moderation", the period from mid-2007 to 1984 when macroeconomic volatility was dramatically reduced. The economy of today is bumpy and politically noisy. It's marked by widening income gaps, and it has already started to show signs of inflation. Investors have almost completely abandoned the idea of a possible downturn in the near future. It is harder...

The news flow has been relentless in the week that has passed, reflecting on the madness of the first half of 2026 as well as the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. This week's column is a little different. It's a look at a few issues, some related to the main story and others not. 1)?YOUTH BURDEN OR BOON? Many investment houses have been pondering the reasons why America is now the world's largest economy. Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets, citing Gordon Wood's book "Empire of Liberty" from 2009, which chronicles the early Republic, argued that chaos and volatility were transformed...

?U.S. The Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that crude oil production in April was the highest ever recorded at 13.93 million barrels per day. This is the highest level on record. Producers increased output to counter higher oil prices due to the Iran War. EIA data show that production rose by 216,000 barrels per day in April. Production in New Mexico reached a record of 2,37 million barrels per day. Texas' crude production increased by 36,000 bpd to 5.83 millions bpd. This is the highest level since November. The Permian Basin is located in Texas and New Mexico, where...

The oil prices were little altered on Tuesday, but they were heading for their largest monthly and 'quarterly' losses since the COVID-19 Pandemic early in '2020. Investors were looking at potential U.S. - Iran talks in Doha amid the strained -interim ceasefire of the four-month long war. Brent futures dropped 13 cents or 0.2% to $73.02 per barrel at 12:34 pm EDT (1634 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 89 cents or 1.3% to $69.86 per barrel. The two crude benchmarks are close to the levels they reached on February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel...

Shell's annual report said that the global liquefied gas demand is expected to increase by 65% by 2050. This will be driven by Asia, as they seek "lower-emission alternative" fuels than coal, and data centres are driving up power consumption. In its LNG Outlook 2026, the world’s largest trader in supercooled fuel predicted that global demand would reach 700 million metric tonnes per year by this date. The report said that the LNG trade was expected to grow in 2026 from 422 million tonnes in 2025. The Strait of Hormuz is currently experiencing severe disruption, which has caused around one-fifth...

The world's central bank forum and watchdog have?warned investors against being swept up in this frenzy. The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, in its annual report on the?state of world finance? on Sunday did not doubt the AI buildout's scale -- but was concerned about the "hangover" when spending peaks. As the U.S. and Israel war against?Iran continued to rumble in the background U.S. chipset stocks rallied by 75% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by another wave in capital expenditure forecasts coming from hyperscalers who are racing to build AI infrastructure. This has caused supply bottlenecks, chip shortages,...

The oil prices continued to decline on Thursday as stranded tanks left the Strait of Hormuz 'following an initial agreement to end the U.S. Israel war with Iran. This eased?supply worries. Brent crude?futures?for August delivery fell by 40?cents or 0.54% to $73.34 a barrel as of 0004 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 27 cents or 0.38% to $70.07 a barrel. Brent for August was cheaper than September at $73.59, indicating ample supply in the short term. In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that "the speed of this drop has caught many off guard" as the...

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that the Department of Justice was to investigate oil companies who had not reduced gasoline prices in line with the falling crude costs. He also accused these 'companies' of "gouging customers". Trump didn't name any companies in the post he made on social media, which was posted after midnight. The White House or the Justice Department (DOJ), which is responsible for the administration of the law, did not respond to an inquiry outside normal business hours. Data showed that the U.S.-Iran diplomatic relationship has resulted in a drop in gasoline prices for Americans. This...

On Wednesday, oil prices dropped more than 1%, continuing this week's losses and trading at near four-month highs. This is on signs that more oil tanks stranded in the Gulf will be moving out of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures were down 78 cents or 1.0% at $76.30 per barrel as of 3:50 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 78 cents or 1.1% to $72.43 a barrel. On Tuesday, both benchmarks fell by around 1% and reached their lowest levels since March. Positive signals from the Persian Gulf are fueling optimism regarding oil flow through the Strait of...

Mark Lashier, CEO of Phillips 66 in the U.S., said 'on Tuesday that it will take some time for crude supplies to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.' This is because there remains uncertainty about a return to normal shipping activity. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be used on a limited scale, which eases immediate concerns about supply and lowers crude prices. Energy companies monitor how quickly crude flow, inventories, and shipping activity returns to normal. Lashier, speaking at a JPMorgan Conference, said that between 90 and 100 million barrels of crude oil remain trapped in this strait. They...

Carnival Corporation forecast third-quarter profits below estimates as fuel prices and geopolitical tensions continue to squeeze margins. Its shares fell about 8% in early trading. After the Middle East conflict, cruise operators who are heavily dependent on fuel oil or marine gas oil have faced a more challenging operating environment. Carnival's second-quarter revenue was also lower than expected. The company said geopolitical instability weighed heavily on bookings. This was particularly true for European itineraries that were close to the conflict. Carnival, the only major U.S. Cruise Operator that does not typically hedge fuel, said it "overcame extreme geopolitical costs and...

Investors were looking for more clear signs of progress regarding the restoration of crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. Iran peace talks. Brent crude 'futures' fell 20 cents or 0.3% to $77.70 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $73.74 per barrel, down by 12 cents or 0.2% as of 0323 GMT. Prices dropped more than 3% after the United States granted Iran 60-days of sanctions waiver following the initial peace talks. Officials also reported a lull between hostilities and the wider agreement in Lebanon. The gradual increase in oil flow through the Strait of...

The rouble will not be weakened by the need for Russia to import more gasoline following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries because exports of excess crude oil will increase, according to a top central bank official. Russia is importing gasoline from India by sea and plans to import up to 400,000 tons of fuel a month. This will help to alleviate the shortages which have caused long queues in filling stations. Calculations based on "market prices" suggest that these imports may cost around 60 billion roubles (roughly $767 million) per month. The rouble can be under pressure if imports are...

Four industry sources reported on Wednesday that Kazakhstan agreed to provide 50,000 metric tonnes?of fuel to Russia as humanitarian assistance in July and August. Russia has been stricken by fuel shortages, long queues and soaring gasoline and diesel prices over the last few weeks, as Ukraine has attacked Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, to undermine Moscow's funding for war efforts. Sources in the industry have said earlier that Russia began importing gasoline from India. In summer, the?Russians consume at least 110,000 tonnes of gasoline per day. Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine is trying to create discord among the Russians....

Two industry sources confirmed on Wednesday that Russia began importing gasoline by sea from India in an effort to reduce fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks against its energy infrastructure. Fuel shortages have been felt in all 11 time zones of Russia, with long queues and record gasoline prices. The Kremlin announced on Tuesday that Russia is in contact with other nations and discussing the importation of fuel at reasonable prices. The Indian oil ministry and the Russian energy ministry have not responded to requests for comment. A source in the industry said that at least 60,000 tons of gasoline...

Ukraine has hit a Russian refinery in Ufa for the second consecutive time, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said on Wednesday. Kyiv is intensifying its strikes in Russia. "Our plan to impose Ukrainian long-range sanction is being implemented every day," Zelenskiy said, referring the Ukrainian attacks deep within Russian territory. "This is a completely just response to everything Russia does against us." Zelenskiy reported that a strike was also carried out on a Russian military-industrial complex he described as "strategic", located in the Penza area, which he claimed made components for missile weapons used by Moscow to attack Ukraine....

Asia's crude oil imports by sea?rose slightly in June, but remained near their lowest levels in over a decade due to the impact of the?Iran Conflict on shipments from Middle East. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region will receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the?20.39million bpd received in May and almost 2 million bpd more than the 18,77million bpd achieved in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior to the United States' and Israel's...

On Sunday, President Vladimir Putin admitted that fuel supply issues had caused shortages in Russian regions. A task force is working to ensure sufficient quantities are provided across the country. Putin said that Russia must minimize the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on oil installations related to shortages. He was speaking to a group of senior officials who were discussing fuel supply and distribution. He said that a ban on exports of diesel was being considered as a way to guarantee supplies for the agricultural sector. According to Russian news agencies, Putin told the group: "You know that there are...

Official data on Thursday showed that oil product inventories in Singapore, the Asian trading hub, have recovered to levels not seen for a month. They had fallen to 13-year lows last week, but they are now back at levels never before recorded. According to Enterprise Singapore, the number of barrels of oil products onshore totaled 42.19 millions in the week ending June 24. This is a 20% increase from the previous week. Since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began, global oil inventories are down by a large amount. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased this week after...

In his evening address on Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that Ukraine would carry out preemptive strikes?on the facilities Russia uses for its war. Kyiv is expanding its strikes on energy infrastructure to try and force Moscow into negotiations. Zelenskiy stated that he had instructed his intelligence services and military forces to take preemptive action against Russian facilities used to increase their 'war effort. As the fuel crisis intensified, Kyiv continued to attack refineries and energy assets. Industry sources say that the capital's Moscow refinery, which was heavily damaged by a?Ukrainian swarm attack, will be off-line for at least six month....

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine was attacking civilian infrastructures in Russia to try and destabilise the society. Ukraine's attacks against oil refineries has doubled since 2026. This has led to longer?lines in some areas and higher gasoline prices. Kyiv has said that its goal is to savage a 'key source' of war funding for Russia and to show Russians that the conflict is not a distant one. Putin made his first comments on the attacks, since Ukrainian drones struck a Moscow refinery a week ago. "Strikes on civilian infrastructure - what is their purpose?" "To destabilize...

?U.S. President Donald Trump described Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as "neutrals" in the war against?Iran on Wednesday, claiming they hadn't thwarted him efforts to curb Tehrans n?uclear ambitions. Trump stated that the ceasefire agreement made the situation "a lot better". At a press briefing at the Group of Seven Conference in Evian-les-Bains (France), Trump told reporters that he was grateful to the leaders who stayed out of the conflict. "I would like to thank China and President Xi. "I was with him and he stayed totally neutral and I appreciated it," said?Trump. "I want to...

Kommersant reported that the Russian government had authorized a few oil refineries to produce fuels at lower environmental standards for the domestic market. This is because the country has been experiencing fuel supply disruptions. According to data collected by, media reports and social media posts have indicated that there are supply disruptions in Russia in a dozen different regions. Only two regions of Siberia, besides the Russian-held Crimea have formally?confirmed these disruptions. Last week, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak requested fuel market forecasts in order to avoid problems with fuel distribution and meet domestic demand. Ukraine has been targeting Russian...

Kommersant reported that the Russian government had authorized a few oil refineries to produce gasoline and diesel fuel with lower environmental specifications for the domestic market. According to data compiled by, fuel shortages have been reported in Russia by media and social media users?in about a dozen different regions. Only two regions in Siberia, besides the Russian-held Crimea have confirmed shortages. Last week, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak called for fuel market forecasts to protect against difficulties in fuel distribution. Ukraine has been targeting Russian refineries, fuel depots, and pipelines for several months in order to limit Moscow's financial support...