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The U.S. economy has been undergoing a transformation. One of the most remarkable aspects is its escape from the?significant cyclical depression since mid-2009. This 17-year period has accelerated the stock market's boom and facilitated funding for the AI transformation. This is not the "Great Moderation", the period from mid-2007 to 1984 when macroeconomic volatility was dramatically reduced. The economy of today is bumpy and politically noisy. It's marked by widening income gaps, and it has already started to show signs of inflation. Investors have almost completely abandoned the idea of a possible downturn in the near future. It is harder...

The news flow has been relentless in the week that has passed, reflecting on the madness of the first half of 2026 as well as the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. This week's column is a little different. It's a look at a few issues, some related to the main story and others not. 1)?YOUTH BURDEN OR BOON? Many investment houses have been pondering the reasons why America is now the world's largest economy. Morgan Stanley strategist Andrew Sheets, citing Gordon Wood's book "Empire of Liberty" from 2009, which chronicles the early Republic, argued that chaos and volatility were transformed...

?U.S. The Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that crude oil production in April was the highest ever recorded at 13.93 million barrels per day. This is the highest level on record. Producers increased output to counter higher oil prices due to the Iran War. EIA data show that production rose by 216,000 barrels per day in April. Production in New Mexico reached a record of 2,37 million barrels per day. Texas' crude production increased by 36,000 bpd to 5.83 millions bpd. This is the highest level since November. The Permian Basin is located in Texas and New Mexico, where...

The oil prices were little altered on Tuesday, but they were heading for their largest monthly and 'quarterly' losses since the COVID-19 Pandemic early in '2020. Investors were looking at potential U.S. - Iran talks in Doha amid the strained -interim ceasefire of the four-month long war. Brent futures dropped 13 cents or 0.2% to $73.02 per barrel at 12:34 pm EDT (1634 GMT), whereas U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) fell 89 cents or 1.3% to $69.86 per barrel. The two crude benchmarks are close to the levels they reached on February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel...

Shell's annual report said that the global liquefied gas demand is expected to increase by 65% by 2050. This will be driven by Asia, as they seek "lower-emission alternative" fuels than coal, and data centres are driving up power consumption. In its LNG Outlook 2026, the world’s largest trader in supercooled fuel predicted that global demand would reach 700 million metric tonnes per year by this date. The report said that the LNG trade was expected to grow in 2026 from 422 million tonnes in 2025. The Strait of Hormuz is currently experiencing severe disruption, which has caused around one-fifth...

The world's central bank forum and watchdog have?warned investors against being swept up in this frenzy. The Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, in its annual report on the?state of world finance? on Sunday did not doubt the AI buildout's scale -- but was concerned about the "hangover" when spending peaks. As the U.S. and Israel war against?Iran continued to rumble in the background U.S. chipset stocks rallied by 75% in the second quarter of 2026, driven by another wave in capital expenditure forecasts coming from hyperscalers who are racing to build AI infrastructure. This has caused supply bottlenecks, chip shortages,...

The oil prices continued to decline on Thursday as stranded tanks left the Strait of Hormuz 'following an initial agreement to end the U.S. Israel war with Iran. This eased?supply worries. Brent crude?futures?for August delivery fell by 40?cents or 0.54% to $73.34 a barrel as of 0004 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 27 cents or 0.38% to $70.07 a barrel. Brent for August was cheaper than September at $73.59, indicating ample supply in the short term. In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that "the speed of this drop has caught many off guard" as the...

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that the Department of Justice was to investigate oil companies who had not reduced gasoline prices in line with the falling crude costs. He also accused these 'companies' of "gouging customers". Trump didn't name any companies in the post he made on social media, which was posted after midnight. The White House or the Justice Department (DOJ), which is responsible for the administration of the law, did not respond to an inquiry outside normal business hours. Data showed that the U.S.-Iran diplomatic relationship has resulted in a drop in gasoline prices for Americans. This...

On Wednesday, oil prices dropped more than 1%, continuing this week's losses and trading at near four-month highs. This is on signs that more oil tanks stranded in the Gulf will be moving out of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures were down 78 cents or 1.0% at $76.30 per barrel as of 3:50 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 78 cents or 1.1% to $72.43 a barrel. On Tuesday, both benchmarks fell by around 1% and reached their lowest levels since March. Positive signals from the Persian Gulf are fueling optimism regarding oil flow through the Strait of...

Mark Lashier, CEO of Phillips 66 in the U.S., said 'on Tuesday that it will take some time for crude supplies to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.' This is because there remains uncertainty about a return to normal shipping activity. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be used on a limited scale, which eases immediate concerns about supply and lowers crude prices. Energy companies monitor how quickly crude flow, inventories, and shipping activity returns to normal. Lashier, speaking at a JPMorgan Conference, said that between 90 and 100 million barrels of crude oil remain trapped in this strait. They...

Carnival Corporation forecast third-quarter profits below estimates as fuel prices and geopolitical tensions continue to squeeze margins. Its shares fell about 8% in early trading. After the Middle East conflict, cruise operators who are heavily dependent on fuel oil or marine gas oil have faced a more challenging operating environment. Carnival's second-quarter revenue was also lower than expected. The company said geopolitical instability weighed heavily on bookings. This was particularly true for European itineraries that were close to the conflict. Carnival, the only major U.S. Cruise Operator that does not typically hedge fuel, said it "overcame extreme geopolitical costs and...

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine was attacking civilian infrastructures in Russia to try and destabilise the society. Ukraine's attacks against oil refineries has doubled since 2026. This has led to longer?lines in some areas and higher gasoline prices. Kyiv has said that its goal is to savage a 'key source' of war funding for Russia and to show Russians that the conflict is not a distant one. Putin made his first comments on the attacks, since Ukrainian drones struck a Moscow refinery a week ago. "Strikes on civilian infrastructure - what is their purpose?" "To destabilize...

Five trade sources have confirmed that China's Hengli Petrochemical has cancelled its recent purchases of non-Iranian oil. This forced the company to further cut back on refinery operations as the inventory was running low. The strange cancellations came just a few weeks after reports that the refiner had purchased cargos from West Africa, the Middle East and other parts of the world to avoid Washington's list. Three sources briefed about the issue said that the refiner had cancelled at least six million barrels. They said that 2 million barrels (of West African oil) were delivered last month to storage tanks...

Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a 'further increase in their 'output targets for August, when they meet?Sunday. This will add supply at a moment of falling prices, as the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. All sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity, said that 'no decision has been finalized. Seven members of OPEC+ (which groups OPEC, Russia and other producers) have increased their 'output quotas between...

?U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline retailers to lower their prices in honor of the?U.S. The United States celebrates its 250th birthday. President Donald?Trump reiterates his message that "we are watching." Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, particularly?during the 250th anniversary because we are watching." Bessent reiterated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline'retailers' to lower prices in celebration of the U.S.'s 250th birthday, reinforcing 'Trump's message with a warning 'we're monitoring' Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, especially during the 250th anniversary of the?Oil Industry, because we are watching." Bessent repeated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big issues." "If Retailers...

Indian refining sources claim that several middlemen offered 'discounted Iranian crude oil' to Indian refiners as a way for 'Tehran' to speed up sales following Washington’s temporary waiver of sanctions. After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days, which opened a small window for a renewed energy trade. Sources said that the Iranian state oil producer, National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), has approached Indian refiners directly and through intermediaries, claiming to have allocated oil. "Apart form NIOC several traders contact us to sell?Iranian Oil. One of the refining...

Trade sources reported on Friday that 'QatarEnergy' has released a tender to sell crude oil for loading in July and August. This is believed to be its first tender since the onset of 'the Iran -war. Producer offers Marine Land, Marine Qatar, and al-Shaheen crude. According to a tender document seen by, buyers can load or transfer via ship-to -ship transfer between Fujairah & Sohar. The bid will close on 29 June. The offer is a further boost to the rising supply of Middle Eastern producers. Iraq's SOMO, the state-owned oil marketer in Iraq, issued a tender?Thursday for Basra Heavy...

The oil prices continued to fall on Thursday, dipping near the levels seen just before the Iran War. This was due to a 'rising'?supply expectation from the Middle East that outweighed the demand concerns. Brent crude futures, for delivery in August, fell by $1.22 or 1.65% to $72.52 a barrel as of 0337 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.02 or 1.45% to $69.32 a barrel. Both contracts have reached their lowest levels since February 27, Brent for August was cheaper than September at $73.59, indicating ample supply in the short term. In a recent note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore...

Two sources with knowledge of the issue have confirmed that Indian Oil Corp. has received "no bids" in the tenders for 'charter vessels' to lift crude oil and liquefied petrochemical?gas from ports within the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, India's largest refiner and fuel retailer floated three tenders for chartering a very-large gas carrier (VLGC), an extremely large crude carrier, and a Suezmax. Indian state refiners buy most of their oil and LPG from Middle Eastern producers free-onboard. A VLCC carries about 2 million barrels of oil. And a VLGC holds 45,000 metric tonnes of LPG, a mixture of propane...

Industry sources say that India's imports from the U.S. of liquefied petrol gas (LPG), a record-breaking amount, will top 1 million metric tons in June. This is because New Delhi has turned to more expensive suppliers to compensate for disruptions from the Middle East. India relied on Middle Eastern LPG producers to provide 90% of its imports of LPG, which totaled about 2 million tonnes per month. Government data revealed that imports of LPG - widely used in Indian homes as a cooking fuel - fell to 696,000 tonnes in April due to 'the strait blocking'. Data showed that imports...

Sources in the trade said that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company sold "at least 18,000,000 barrels" of crude oil from United Arab Emirates during its third spot tender this month. ADNOC has sold at least 48,000,000 barrels of crude oil in June, according to calculations. ADNOC is also offering more volumes in a 4th?tender due to close this week. Kpler data showed that the UAE exported 101.4 million barrels of oil in January, and 95.2 millions in February before the U.S. - Iran war blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Two trade sources reported that an Indian refiner bought 2 million...

Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian Central Bank Governor and Alexei Zabotkin, her deputy, addressed a Friday press conference after the central banks cut its key interest rate by 25 basis point to 14.25%. Nabiullina spoke in Russian and Zabotkin in English. The following quotes were translated into English by. NABIULLINA ON RATE DECISION "...The positions of the participants in the discussion on the important rate decision differed along 3 main lines. First, the first thing to consider is the stability of inflation rates in recent months. The second item is an assessment of inflationary factors which have emerged since the last...

Early trading on Thursday saw oil prices fall after the U.S. signed an interim deal with Iran that would end the Iran War, reopen Strait of Hormuz, and waive U.S. sanction s on Tehran's crude, ending the largest energy supply disruption ever. Brent crude futures fell 89 cents or 1.12% to $78.66 per barrel at 0005 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 98 cents or 1.28% to $75.81 per barrel. The benchmarks have resumed their fall, reversing the gains made on Wednesday after U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he would resume his bombing campaigns if Iran's leaders "don't behave"....