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Analysts say that Chinese refiners are sweeping up Russian oil as Indian demand drops

Analysts say that Chinese refiners are sweeping up Russian oil as Indian demand drops

Two analysts and a trader reported on Tuesday that Chinese refineries had purchased 15 cargoes for delivery in October and November as Indian demand for Moscow’s exports has declined.

India is the largest buyer of Russian oil by sea. It has been sold at a discounted price since Western nations have shunned purchasing and placed restrictions on Russian exports due to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian oil last month as the discounts shrank. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has also threatened to punish countries that buy Russian crude.

Richard Jones, an Energy Aspects crude analyst based in Singapore, reported that China had already secured 15 Russian Urals for delivery between October and November.

The size of each Urals cargo varies from 700,000 barrels to 1,000,000 barrels.

Kpler analyst Xu Muyu stated in a report dated August 14, that China likely bought about 13 cargoes each of Urals and Varandey oil for delivery in October, as well as at least two Urals crude cargoes for delivery in November.

Xu stated that the additional Russian Urals could reduce Chinese refiners’ appetite for Middle Eastern crude which is more expensive by $2 to $3 a barrel.

She added that this could put further pressure on the Dubai market, which is already losing steam as seasonal demand declines and competition from arbitrage supplies intensifies.

Kpler's estimate was confirmed by a trade source, who added that most of the cargoes had been booked at the start of the month by Chinese state owned and independent refineries.

Due to its close proximity, China, which is the largest oil importer in the world and the biggest Russian oil buyer, mainly buys ESPO oil exported from the Russian Far East Port of Kozmino. Kpler data shows that China imported 50,000 barrels of Urals oil per day in the year to date.

Kpler data shows that Urals and Varandey Crude are usually shipped to India.

According to Energy Aspects Jones, Indian state refiners have reduced their imports of Russian crude by 600,000-700,000 bpd.

He said that Urals was not a baseload for Chinese refineries, which were not built to process only the Russian grade.

He added that Chinese refiners would also be concerned about secondary U.S. sanctions in the event of Trump's failure to achieve a peace agreement with Ukraine.

Trump said that he would not have to consider retaliatory duties on China or other countries for purchasing Russian oil immediately, but he might "in two to three weeks".

(source: Reuters)