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Energy Markets

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

The IEA warns that escalation between the US and Iran could threaten oil surpluses in 2027.

The International Energy Agency said that the recent escalation of hostilities between the U.S., and 'Iran, could change its 'forecast of an 'important oi l market surplus next year. The global oil market received some relief last'month, as a peace deal between the U.S.A. and the 'Iran opened the Strait. Its closure had effectively cut off 'as much as 14 million barrels of crude oil per day during the height of the biggest oil supply crisis ever. The agency reported that global oil production rose by 4.1 mbpd in June but was still 9.4 mbpd lower than pre-war levels. The...

Fossil Fuels

Taganrog evacuates following drone attack on Taganrog's Ilsky Oil Refinery

Local officials said that a drone strike caused the fire at the Ilsky oil refinery in southern Krasnodar, and authorities in Taganrog evacuated residents after another strike. The authorities reported that preliminary information indicated no injuries. In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on 'Russia's energy infrastructure and other infrastructure to undermine Moscow’s war effort. The Ilsky refinery with its capacity of?around 138,000 barrels per day has been attacked before. Fuel shortages and price increases across Russia are a result of the attacks on oil refineries. Yury Slyusar, the Governor of Rostov, said on Telegram that fires are being...

Oil & Gas Exploration

India's TCS rises on revenue beat and AI momentum Fueling Recovery Hopes

Shares of India's largest?software exporter,?Tata Consultancy Services, advanced by more than 4% the day after beating a?quarterly revenue estimate.?Deal wins and increasing AI-related revenues raised hopes for a slow earnings recovery. TCS traded 1.8% higher, at 2,086 Rupees, at 9:59 am IST in Mumbai. This boosted the?Nifty50 index by 1.1%. The IT index rose about 2%. The results of the IT company kicked off India's first-quarter earning season, which saw earnings downgrades due to a slowdown in client spending and concerns that AI could disrupt the business models of software companies. TCS's quarterly sales increased 14% over the previous year...

Fuel Oil

Sources say that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday after a drone attack.

Two sources familiar with the matter said that Russia's Saratov refinery stopped processing oil on Wednesday due to damage caused by a drone attack. In recent months, Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure to try and undermine Moscow's military effort. Fuel shortages have been reported in Russia as a result of the attacks, with long queues at fuel stations, higher fuel prices and fuel exports being restricted. This week, the largest oil refinery in Russia, Omsk, halted its operations after a drone attack by Ukraine. Roman Busargin, the governor of Saratov region, said in a Telegram message...

Oil & Gas

Syria gains voting rights in the chemical weapons watchdog

On Thursday, member states returned Syria's voting right to the global chemical weapons watchdog after a "significant change in circumstances", as they called it, since the fall of Assad. Syria was stripped of its rights by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in 2021 after it was found that its forces had repeatedly used poisonous gas during the civil conflict. This was largely symbolic but sent a message to Syria that any breach of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention prohibiting the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield would not be tolerated. The OPCW stated that "after...

Fossil Fuels

Sources say that Indian BPCL, and Japan's Taiyo Oil purchase US crude through tenders.

According to sources in the trading world, India's Bharat Oil Corp and Japan's Taiyo Oil purchased 'crude' from the United States this week, as refiners sought to diversify their supplies amid the Middle East conflict. Four sources claim that BPCL purchased West Texas Intermediate crude oil from Vitol. The refiner has booked an Aframax Tanker that can?carry up to 600,000.0 barrels of crude oil, according to two of the witnesses. They added that the oil was purchased at a price premium of?around 6 per barrel over dated Brent. A separate trader reported that Taiyo Oil purchased 2 million barrels for...

Refined Products

Oil prices rise after US strikes on Iran

Oil prices rose on Thursday, after the U.S. launched new?strikes in Iran. This dented hopes of an end to the Iran war, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint that supplies one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war. Brent crude futures were up 78 cents or 1% at $78.8 per barrel as of 0054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 74 cents or 1.01% to $74.26 per barrel by 0054 GMT. WTI and Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 in the post-settlement trading on Wednesday,...

Fossil Fuels

IMF reduces global growth forecast for 2026 to 3%; sees rebound in 2020

The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global growth in 2026 to a slow 3.0% on Wednesday, warning about the ongoing risks associated with the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections to market expectations in AI. The 'global lender' said that the world economy avoided a sharper decline, as demand for AI and technology helped to offset the sharp fall in energy supplies due to the war. The growth rate should return to 3,4% by 2027. However, this is still lower than the 3.5% average seen between 2024 and 2025. The IMF forecasted 3.1% growth in April....

Oil & Gas

Trump on Iran: US likely to strike them again Wednesday night

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran the United States would likely launch additional strikes on Wednesday night, following the attacks of the previous day. "I'll give a little warning. We're going hit them hard tonight," Trump said to reporters before his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO Summit in Turkey. Trump had said to reporters in Ankara that a memorandum-of-understanding between the United States & Iran, which served as an initial ceasefire agreement, was "over". He did not say that Washington would go back to full-fledged warfare, and it was not clear if the negotiations to turn...

Oil & Gas

IMF cuts 2026 global growth to 3%; sees rebound in 2020

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

Oil & Gas

UAE's ADNOC expands its energy partnership with South Korea

ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the UAE, announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a long-term partnership with South Korea for energy security. The agreement aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crude supply and emergency supply coordination. The partnership extends existing agreements. This includes a pledge made by the United Arab Emirates in March that they would supply South Korea up to 24,000,000 barrels of crude oil. It was announced at a visit to South Korea by Sultan al-Jaber. ADNOC Group CEO and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. ADNOC stated that both parties would...

Oil & Gas

NATO chief: New US strikes on Iran are absolutely necessary

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, said that the?new U.S. attacks on Iran? were "absolutely needed" The?U.S. The?U.S. Rutte said to reporters in Ankara, before the NATO summit. "When there is a ceasefire and Iran basically violates the ceasefire I think that it is absolutely crucial that the U.S. react forcefully." The European leaders will try to persuade Donald Trump to commit to the alliance after he renewed his disagreements with them regarding the Iran War and Greenland. Rutte stated that there was no doubt about the "complete commitment" of the United States to NATO, which he added also worked to...

Crude Oil

Crude Oil

India's ONGC plans a 1.75 million tonne national strategic oil reserve

India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp, India's largest explorer, will build a 1,75 million metric ton national strategic petroleum reserve at Mangalore (in southern India), the company announced in a late-night stock exchange filing. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, has been severely affected by the blockade of Strait of Hormuz following the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran. Around a fifth (25%) of world energy passes through the waterway. To strengthen its emergency supply, the 'South Asian nation' is increasing its energy cooperation with other countries, such as Japan and the United Arab Emirates....

Crude Oil

The strategic oil reserves will support the crude demand until 2028

Analysts and officials have said that governments are planning to purchase millions of barrels by 2028 in order to replenish 'emergency reserves' depleted due to drawdowns. This is to fill a void?in the global supply caused by a U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. They say that this could increase demand for crude oil, which would absorb a portion of the global surplus expected after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The government has reduced emergency reserves following supply disruptions related to the conflict that have removed estimated 1.5 billion barrels of global inventories in this year. Calculations based on International Energy Agency...

Crude Oil

Singapore's oil product stocks hover around 40 million barrels

Government data released on Thursday shows that oil product inventories in Singapore, Asia’s main trading hub, have barely changed from week to week. This is because declines in light distillates and residual fuels offset gains in middle distillates. Enterprise Singapore data shows that total onshore oil product stocks were hovering at 40.33 million barrels for the week ending July 8 compared to 40.45 millions barrels last week. Markets are anticipating an increase in inventories if exports to regions like Northeast Asia continue to rise, after a recovery of refining operations these past two months. China's outflows will also increase after...

Mining

Mineral Resources

Mineral Resources

Gold prices to drop this week as Gulf attack reinforces rate-hike betting

Gold?edged down on Friday - and was on course for a 'weekly drop, on fears that escalating U.S. - Iran tensions would fuel inflation. This could keep the Federal Reserve hawkish in its monetary policy. Gold spot fell by 0.2%, to $4.113.02 an ounce at 0735 GMT. It was on track for a weekly drop of 1.5%. U.S. Gold Futures for August?delivery fell 0.4% to $4121.90. Tim Waterer is the chief analyst at KCM Trade. He said that gold was in consolidation mode after yesterday's gains. Traders were hesitant to commit to further upward movement due to the uncertainty surrounding...

Mineral Resources

Copper stablises in the face of Iran's escalation fears

Copper prices were flat on Friday as fears faded of an economic hit and a drop in metal demand due to a spate of tit for tat attacks between the U.S.?and Iran. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange was?largely steady, with a drop of only 0.01% at $13,487.5 per metric ton as of 0700 GMT. The red metal prices are now close to the levels they were at the beginning of the week. This is the culmination of a few volatile days, during which fears about a new round in the conflict between the U.S. Prices...

Mineral Resources

Gold prices to drop this week as Gulf attack reinforces rate-hike betting

Gold prices rose on Friday as the dollar weakened, but were on course for a weekly decline on fears that the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could fuel inflation. This would keep the U.S. Federal Reserve in a hawkish policy direction. As of 0303 GMT spot gold was up by 0.2%, at $4,128,92 per ounce. It is heading for a weekly decline of over 1%. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were unchanged at $4,139.50. Dollars were at their lowest level in a week, which made greenbacks priced bullion more accessible to holders of other currencies. Tim Waterer...

Mineral Resources

Andy Home: The aluminum supply shock has revived long-idled Western Smelters

The Iran War has caused a supply shock that is reviving the old Western aluminum smelters. Magnitude 7 Metals in the U.S. is reactivating its New Madrid smelter located in Missouri. Over the Atlantic, Norwegian producer Hydro announced the partial restart of the Slovalco joint-venture smelter. The two plants were idled due to low aluminum prices and a spike in energy prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Washington and Brussels are both desperate to reduce their reliance on an import of a metal used in a wide range of industries. The return of these zombies smelters will not...

Mineral Resources

Copper rebound, Middle East conflict escalates no longer a concern

The dollar, which had recently surged, was stabled and copper rebounded on Thursday as the market looked beyond the escalation of Gulf hostilities. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.62% to $13,379 per metric ton at 0700 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 0.16%, to 103.160 yuan (15,182.65) per ton. This was a slight improvement from the earlier drop of 1.32%. Although the copper market is still watching Middle East conflict developments closely, investors have "tended to price in an expectation that any escalated tensions will be brief and a solution?will be...

Mineral Resources

Iron ore is in short supply as fears of a possible disruption to the supply counteracts a weakening demand

Iron ore prices were range bound on Thursday as investors weighed the potential supply risks arising from a strike threat by some BHP iron ore employees against a seasonally weakened demand in China, the world's largest consumer. As of 0304 GMT, the most-traded contract for?iron?ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange increased 0.27% from 745.5 Yuan ($109.66), a metric tonne. As of 0254 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore contract on Singapore Exchange fell 0.18% to $98.85 per ton. BHP's Port Hedland Iron?ore operation in Western Australia may see hundreds of workers walk off their jobs next week. This would be...

Mineral Resources

Gold drops over 1% and oil increases after Trump declares Iran peace deal "over"

Gold prices fell more than 1% after the?U.S. Donald Trump declared that the interim peace agreement with Iran is "over", which sent oil prices soaring and revived fears of inflation. Gold spot fell by 1.4% at 1027 GMT to $4,049.92 an ounce, its lowest price since July 2. U.S. gold futures for August delivered fell 2.3% to $4.059.80/oz. Oil prices rose by more than 6% following a statement from?Trump that the Memorandum of Understanding signed with Iran in June to end their four month conflict was "over", and that he did not want to engage Tehran. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo...

Mineral Resources

India Silver Import Curbs Create Shortages, Push Premiums to Six-Month High

India's import restrictions have caused shortages on the world's largest market for precious metals, driving premiums up to their highest levels in six months despite a weaker than usual demand. India's lower imports, which meet more than 80% its silver demand by purchasing it overseas, could have a negative impact on the global price of silver, as well as help narrow its trade deficit and reduce pressure on its currency, the rupee. Chirag Thakkar, the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group Gujarat - a major silver importer - said that "Silver Imports are almost at a standstill, creating a severe...

Mineral Resources

Gold falls as oil increases after Trump declares Iran peace deal "over"

Gold prices dropped more than 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the interim peace agreement with Iran had "ended". This sent oil prices up and fuelled fears of inflation, as well as higher U.S. rates. Spot gold dropped 1.02%, to $4,063.67 an ounce, by 0850 GMT. It had fallen to its lowest level since July 2, earlier in the session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1.97% to $ 4,074.80/oz. Trump stated that the Memorandum of Understanding signed in June with Iran to end a four-month conflict was "over" and added that he did not...

Mineral Resources

Aluminium gains in renewed Middle East combat

Aluminum gained on Wednesday as a result of'renewed tensions in the Middle East' after 'fresh U.S. attacks on Iranian targets threatened derailment of a fragile ceasefire. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark three-month aluminum?on London Metal Exchange was?up by 0.33% to $3,148 per metric ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract rose by 0.68%, to 23,075 Yuan ($3,394.38) per ton. The rise in prices comes after the latest U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets, and projectiles have 'hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This could undermine efforts to restore a?normal supply? in the region. Around 9% of the...

Environment

Dutch prosecutors file criminal charges against Tata Steel unit

Dutch prosecutors announced on Wednesday that they had opened a criminal case against Tata Steel's Dutch subsidiary for "intentionally polluting" the environment. The prosecutors said a criminal probe?into Tata’s massive plant in?IJmuiden on the Dutch coast, west of Amsterdam, gave clear indications that company did not take enough care to avoid hazardous pollution. Tata was also accused of operating without the necessary licences and inadequate maintenance for its highly polluting coke oven. Tata's Dutch division, which is part of Tata, said that they disagreed with these accusations and had made significant improvements to reduce pollution in the past years. It...

Mineral Resources

Japan Q3 aluminium prices soar highest since 2015 due to Mideast supply squeeze

Five sources said that Japanese aluminium buyers paid a premium of $395 per ton between July and September. This was the highest price since 2015. The U.S./Israeli war against Iran has squeezed the supply. Japan is the largest Asian importer and benchmark for the region. Its premiums on primary metals are set at a level that exceeds the London Metal Exchange cash price each quarter. The premiums agreed to are up from $350-$353 per ton in April-June, the third consecutive increase. This is the highest since $425 between January and March 2015. As tensions ease, producers cut their offers Sources...