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James Hardie Australia shares plunge the most in two days on weak forecast
James Hardie shares listed in Australia fell by more than 11% Thursday, and are on track for their largest two-day decline ever after the fibre cement manufacturer forecasted 2026 earnings below analysts' expectations citing weak North America markets. The share price has dropped 36% in the last two days to A$28.34, losing more than A$9 Billion ($5.78 Billion) in market value. This selloff reflects broader investor dissatisfaction with Australia-listed firms that have failed to meet their targets. The selling began on Wednesday, after the company announced that it would have adjusted operating earnings between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion in fiscal 2026. This was below Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of $1.23billion. The midpoint of forecast range is also just barely above the $1.1 billion that the company earned during fiscal 2025. James Hardie, based in Dublin, is facing a slowdown on its biggest market North America. Weaker-than-expected activity for single-family housing construction during the summer has worsened the demand for repairs and remodelling. North American fibre cement sales dropped 12% in the first quarter to $641.80 million, and adjusted net income fell to $126.9 from $177.6 millions a year ago. The stock is down nearly half this year. It's now 42.7% due to a decline in single-family home sales across the U.S., which has been caused by higher borrowing costs and increased inventory levels. CSL shares fell nearly 20% over the past two trading sessions, as the biotech company abandoned its main margin restoration goal for the blood plasma division. This is the second time that Australian investors have been disappointed by earnings-related issues.
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Oil gains as demand for oil increases
The oil prices continued to rise on Thursday. This was boosted by strong signs of demand in the U.S. and uncertainty about efforts to end war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures reached a new two-week high early in the trading session and were up by 27 cents or 0.40% to $67.11 per barrel at 0442 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI), which are based in the United States, rose by 29 cents or 0.46% to $63.01 a barrel. Both contracts rose over 1% during the previous session. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million last week, compared with a poll expectation of a 1.8-million barrel draw. The EIA reported that gasoline stocks fell by 2.7m barrels versus the expected 915,000 barrels. This indicates a steady demand for summer travel. This was also seen by a spike in the average four-week consumption of jet fuel, which reached its highest level since 2019. Daniel Hynes said that the price of crude oil rebounded on Thursday as strong demand from the U.S. boosted confidence. Hynes warned, however, that "some bearish sentiment remains apparent as traders continue monitoring negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine." Analysts and traders expect the oil price to drop once a peace agreement is signed, but if there are no further concrete steps in the negotiations then this could undermine the market. Russia warned on Wednesday, as U.S. military planners and Europeans started to explore post-conflict guarantees for Ukraine's security, that any attempt to resolve the issue without Moscow's involvement was a "road leading nowhere". As long as the efforts to bring peace in Ukraine continue, Western sanctions against Russian oil will remain in effect. The market is still at risk of more sanctions and tariffs for Russian oil purchasers. Russia is adamant that it will continue to supply crude oil to India, even after the United States warned against this. Russian diplomats in India said the country expected to continue to supply oil to India, despite the warnings of the United States. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced that an additional 25% tariff would be applied to Indian goods starting August 27, due to their purchases of Russian crude. The European Union also sanctioned Indian refiner Nayara Energy which is supported by Russian oil company Rosneft. Indian refiners initially refused to buy Russian oil, but officials from state-run Indian Oil (Indian Oil) and Bharat Oil (Bharat Petroleum) have now bought Russian crude in September and October for delivery. They resumed purchases after the discounts were widened. (Reporting from Siyi Liu and Katya Glubkova, in Tokyo; editing by Christian Schmollinger & Tom Hogue).
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Jackson Hole will open under Trump's shadow
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Today, the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium is a highly anticipated event for the U.S. central banks. Investors will be listening intently to every word that central bankers around the globe say. Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman for his final year at this annual meeting, will deliver a speech on Friday. He's likely, like his predecessors to take the opportunity to shape how his tenure will be recorded in history books. This is especially true considering the harsh criticism he received from President Donald Trump this year for not cutting rates. Investors are looking for any hint of a September cut. They have increased their bets on an easing after a surprising soft payroll report earlier in the month. Recent consumer prices show little impact of Trump's aggressive tariffs but higher-than-expected producers prices suggest that sticker prices could rise in the coming months. The implied odds of a quarter point cut on September 17, currently at 80% are down from 84% just a day earlier. The Fed minutes of last month's meeting suggested that only Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for supervision Michelle Bowman were pushing for a cut in rates. Trump's increasing influence on monetary policy is another reason why the Fed is in the spotlight. Lisa Cook is the latest target of President Obama, who has demanded her resignation after allegations were made by a political ally about mortgages that she held in Michigan and Georgia. If Trump were to remove Cook from the Fed board, that would be an addition to his choices, as Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran is set to replace Adriana Kulgler after her sudden resignation. Bowman and Waller are, of course both Trump appointments. Trump may end up having four of the seven board members support his demand for lower rates. Investors were unnerved by Trump's threat to fire Powell, before his tenure as governor expires in May next year. This led to a sharp decline in the dollar. But the U.S. dollar has taken these latest developments in stride. Asian stocks are generally mixed as they adjust to recent sharp selloffs or rallies. Japan's Nikkei, for instance, continued to retreat after reaching a record high earlier in the week. South Korea's KOSPI, on the other hand, bounced strongly back from a drop to a 6-week low earlier that day. Wall Street's tech selling off was mostly shaken off. Advantest, Japan's largest chip-testing equipment manufacturer by far, is the Nikkei's biggest index point gainer. Trump, aside from the sky-high prices, is also being cited as a cause for the downturn. This administration has been looking at taking equity stakes into chip companies such as Intel, just weeks after negotiating revenue-sharing agreements with Nvidia, AMD, and others. Walmart will release its earnings today and provide a barometer of the U.S. Consumer's health. Target's stock dropped on Wednesday, after the company appointed Michael Fiddelke to be its CEO. It also maintained annual forecasts which were reduced in May. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. - Jackson Hole symposium opens The Philadelphia Fed's Business Index, U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales for July - Walmart results - Flash PMIs for euro zone, France, Germany, Britain
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Iron ore prices rise as fears over China's demand recede
Iron ore futures recovered on Thursday, as a mandatory production cut in China ahead of a parade military proved to be less severe and shorter that expected. This eased demand concerns. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the morning trade at 777.5 Yuan ($108.39). As of 0321GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 1.44% at $102.2 per ton. The benchmarks fell for six consecutive sessions until Wednesday. This was due to concerns about demand, as steelmakers at China's largest steelmaking hub Tangshan had been asked to reduce production in order to improve air quality in Beijing in time for the military parade commemorating World War II on September 3. The length of the production restriction in Tangshan is shorter-than-expected, therefore the overall impact will be limited, analysts said. One analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with the media, predicted that hot metal production, a measure of iron ore consumption, would likely remain stable this week. This will support ore prices. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also saw gains, rising by 0.77% each. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are mixed. Hot-rolled coils were flat, wire rod was up 0.48%, and stainless steel fell 0.16%.
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Talos Energy Announces Successful Exploration Results at Daenerys
Talos Energy Inc. announced successful drilling results at the Daenerys exploration prospect located in the U.S. Gulf of America Walker Ridge blocks 106, 107, 150, and 151.The discovery well was drilled to a total vertical depth of 33,228 feet utilizing the West Vela deepwater drillship and encountered oil pay in multiple high-quality, sub-salt Miocene sands. A comprehensive wireline program was conducted, acquiring core, fluid, and log data to evaluate the reservoir. The well was drilled approximately 12 days ahead of schedule and delivered approximately $16 million under budget. Planning is underway for an appraisal well to further define the discovered resource. The discovery well has been temporarily suspended to preserve its future utility.Talos, as operator, will hold a 27% working interest ("W.I."), Shell Offshore Inc. will hold a 22.5% W.I., Red Willow will hold a 22.5% W.I., Houston Energy, L.P. will hold a 10% W.I., Cathexis will hold a 9% W.I., and HEQ II Daenerys, LLC will hold a 9%."We are encouraged by the results of our Daenerys discovery well, which confirms the presence of hydrocarbons and validates our geologic and geophysical models," said Talos President and Chief Executive Officer Paul Goodfellow. "We believe these results support Talos's pre-drill resource assumptions. We are now working closely with our partners to design an appraisal program that will further delineate this exciting discovery. We anticipate spudding the appraisal well in the second quarter of 2026."
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Aluminium prices rise on reduced stocks and improved China demand
Aluminum prices rose on Thursday, beating their peers as signs of improved demand and lower inventories in China, the top consumer, boosted prices. As of 0231 GMT, the most traded aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen by 0.73% to 20,670 yuan for a metric ton. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.17%, to $2.581 per ton. The price of aluminium has been supported by the improvement in spot demand. This, coupled with a destocking of certain products, was said under condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to media. Analysts at Galaxy Futures wrote in a report that lower aluminium inventories will support Shanghai's prices in the event of potential downside risks. A higher global supply has, however, limited further price increases. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI), which released data on Wednesday, showed that the global primary aluminium production in July increased 2.5% compared to last year. Investors are also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech for clues to test their bets for a rate reduction. The dollar price of metals could increase due to a weaker U.S. dollar. SHFE copper grew by 0.06%. Zinc advanced by 0.31%. Lead gained 0.35%. Nickel fell 0.23%. Tin dropped 0.68%. LME copper edged up 0.02%. Nickel slipped 0.05%. Lead lost 0.08%. Zinc dropped 0.11%. (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson, Sonia Cheema).
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As markets prepare for Jackson Hole, the dollar drifts and Asian stocks are mixed.
Investors were preparing for three days worth of market-moving information from the Federal Reserve annual symposium at Jackson Hole. The event will begin later that day. However, traders will be focusing on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday speech as they look for clues about the possibility of a rate cut in September. The Nikkei fell 0.6% during the morning session and is now further away from its record high reached on Tuesday. Advantest was up 3%, while Tokyo Electron fell 2%, despite a tech-driven selloff overnight on Wall Street. South Korea's KOSPI rebounded by 0.9% on Thursday after hitting a six-week-low on Wednesday. Australia's benchmark index rose 0.6% to a new all-time high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was mostly flat, while mainland Chinese blue chips rose 0.5%. U.S. Stock Futures are pointing lower. Nasdaq futures have fallen 0.2%, and S&P futures are down 0.1%. Overnight, Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% while the S&P 500 Cash Index dropped 0.2%. Kyle Rodda is an analyst with Capital.com. Equity prices are starting to reflect the risk that Jackson Hole will disappoint, and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Fed will pivot in the aggressive dovish direction implied on the rates markets. The odds are currently around 80% that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point on September 17 and they price in 52 basis points over the remainder of the year. On Wednesday, odds of a rate cut in September were 84%. Fed Chair Powell said that he was reluctant to reduce rates due to the expected price pressures caused by tariffs this summer. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, where policymakers voted for rates to remain unchanged, were released overnight. They suggested that Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman were the only two who pushed for a reduction in interest rates at the gathering. The traders increased their bets on a September reduction after a surprising weak payrolls report was released at the beginning of this month. They were also encouraged by consumer price data, which showed that tariffs had little impact on prices. The policy picture was complicated by a higher-than-expected reading of producer prices last week. The central bank was again under pressure overnight by President Donald Trump, who is not only a potential influencer but also a trader. Trump, who had earlier attacked Powell for not cutting interest rates, targeted Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Wednesday, demanding her resignation amid allegations of wrongdoing in connection with mortgages on properties that she owns in Georgia, Michigan and elsewhere. Cook stated that she "had no intention" of being bullied into stepping down. Investors were unnerved by Trump's call for greater control over the Fed earlier this year. The dollar fell. The dollar index was unchanged at 98.252 in the morning, after climbing to its highest level since August 12 at 98.541 the day before. Rodrigo Catril is a strategist with National Australia Bank. If he were to remove Cook from the Fed Board, he could end up having four out of seven members supporting his call for lower rates. Trump nominated Council of Economic Advisers chair Miran to be a Fed Governor earlier this month following the resignation of Adriana Kulgler. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bill in the United States was unchanged at 4.2965% during the last session. The yields on Japanese government bonds have risen, however. For the first time since 1999, the yield for the 20-year bond has risen to 2,655%. Investors are concerned about increased fiscal spending, especially as the pressure on the Japanese Prime Minister to resign grows. The dollar was little changed at 147.41 Japanese yen. The Euro and Sterling were both flat at $1.1647 each and $1.3458 respectively. Bitcoin has continued to climb from the 2-1/2 week low of $112,386,93 reached on Wednesday, to reach around $114 690. Gold prices have slipped slightly to $3,342 an ounce. Prices of oil edged up as the U.S. crude oil and fuel inventory declined more than expected, supporting expectations of steady demand. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $67.19 per barrel after rising 1.6% the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 0.6% to $63.00, after gaining 1.4% in the previous session.
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Beijing, historically dry, is it ready for a wetter future?
Cui Jian, the owner of a rural hotel in Beijing, and his guests were stranded in the rain on a roof during the deadly floods that struck Beijing last month. Rescuers had to battle through metres-high silt and mud to reach them the following day. Beijing's northern Huairou District and the neighbouring Miyun District received an entire year's rain in just one week. This led to flash floods which devastated entire villages, killing 44 people. It was the worst flood in Beijing since 2012. Most Huairou villagers were asleep when the authorities issued their most severe weather warning. In the past, they evacuated tourists, closed scenic areas, and relocated villages. It's good to warn people, but it is a disaster if you don't. The floods revealed weaknesses in Beijing's rural emergency response infrastructure. Beijing is an urban center surrounded by a number of rural districts. They also showed how Beijing, a city of 22 million, which has a history of being dry, is not prepared for an increasingly wet climate, according to experts. Forecasters predicted that the Chinese capital would only experience three deluges every 100 years. Climate experts warn of a growing threat to disasters previously unimaginable in scale. Chinese experts increasingly call for city planners in China to prioritize "ecological resilient" due to the devastating effects of climate changes. Zhou Jinfeng is the Secretary-General of China Biodiversity Conservation and Green Development Foundation. He said: "The current understanding and future challenges of climate change are insufficient. This naturally leads to inadequate deployment and planning." Beijing's city government and China's housing and environment ministries did not reply to faxed comments. While two Beijing districts devastated by floods in 2023 have issued long-term reconstruction plans prioritising "climate-adaptive city construction" and proposing measures to improve rural flood control systems and upgrade infrastructure, the vast majority of recently-commissioned infrastructure projects in the capital do not prioritise climate adaptation in their plans. In a database of the Chinese government, only three Beijing infrastructures projects were mentioned in the last five years in terms of "ecological resilient", while hundreds more tenders that mention "climate changes" are mostly research projects at Beijing's state scientific institutes. According to Zhou, ecological resilience is a term that refers to such measures as restoring natural river banks, reducing concrete and other hard material use, and artificial landscaping as well as increasing biodiversity. A top-level meeting on urban planning in July emphasized the importance of building "liveable and sustainable" cities. Mid-July marks the start of northern China's wet season, but it began earlier this year than ever before. Several Beijing rivers also experienced their worst floods. Official data revealed that the citywide rainfall for June and July was 75% higher than a year ago. The director of China’s National Climate Center, who works for the state-owned China Newsweek newspaper, said that this is because of the "significant northward extension of China’s rain belt" since 2011, which has been linked to climate changes. This marks a shift to "multiple, sustainable, long-term cycles of rainfall" within the traditionally arid North. 'SPONGE CITIES' China's policymakers took some steps to fight urban flooding. Since 2015, "Sponge City" projects are underway in China, which transform concrete-laden megacities into cities with hidden drainage infrastructure, such as permeable pavements, sunken rainfall gardens, and modernised sewer systems. This concept originated in China and refers to the ability of a sponge to absorb rainwater, then release it. Recent projects in Beijing include flood control pumps, riverside parks and manmade lakes. Official data shows that China will spend more than 403,78 billion yuan (2.9 trillion yuan) in 2024 on infrastructure projects for "sponge cities". The authorities aim to cover 80% of all urban areas by 2030. However, many provinces and large cities are still behind schedule. According to a Chinese database of procurement tenders, in Beijing, this year has seen the start of new "sponge cities" worth at least 150 million yuan. Media reports claim that 38% of Beijing’s urban areas currently meet the "sponge-city" standards. Experts say that such initiatives will not help Beijing's rural fringes, because of the mountainous terrain, which makes villages more vulnerable to secondary disasters, such as landslides, due to their location at the base of steep hillsides, and the lack emergency response infrastructure. Yuan Yuan is Greenpeace East Asia’s climate and energy campaigner. She said that the current "sponge cities" standards were also based on historic precipitation data, and they are not equipped to handle extreme rainfall. She added that future contingency plans should also include pre-emptive evacuations of residents, and improved early warning systems. 31 residents of an elderly nursing home in Miyun died during the recent Beijing flooding. The elderly residents were not included in evacuation plans, and they became trapped by the rising water. Yuan stated that it was necessary to plan infrastructure in a rational way and to coordinate risk response plans, countermeasures and other measures to minimize future losses. Reporting by Laurie Chen, Editing by Kate Mayberry. $1 = 7.1813 Chinese Yuan Renminbi
Investors' views on gold are not much different as they await Jackson Hole comments
Investors waited for clues about the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook before the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that begins later in the day.
As of 0202 GMT, spot gold declined 0.1% to $3341.93 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery also fell 0.1% to $3384.40.
Investors will be watching closely to see if Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports measures to boost the labor market, or focuses on inflation risks.
We don't believe gold prices will rise much and think they are consolidating right now. We could see gold prices rise slightly even if the interest rate is cut a little. The $3,400 level may be possible. If not, prices could continue to stabilize or even drop a bit, to a level closer to $3300," said Brian Lan.
Two Fed officials, Vice Chair for Oversight Michelle Bowman, and Governor Christopher Waller, voted last month for a quarter point rate cut in order to address the job market's weakness. However, their position was not widely supported.
CME's FedWatch tool predicts an 85% probability of a quarter point rate cut in September.
Gold usually performs better in low-interest rate environments and times of increased uncertainty.
U.S. president Donald Trump demanded that Fed Governor Lisa Cook resign due to issues allegedly related to her mortgages held in Michigan and Georgia. This was part of his increased efforts to influence the central bank.
Russia also said that attempts to resolve Ukraine's security concerns without Moscow's involvement were "a road to nowhere".
Silver spot remained at $37.86 an ounce. Platinum fell by 0.3% to 1,334.99, and palladium dropped 0.1% to $1,000.46. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich and Rashmi Nandy, Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)