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Oil prices rise despite US sanctions on Russian oil
The oil prices are on the rise this week, despite U.S. efforts to reduce supply concerns. Brent futures rose by 10 cents or 0.1% to $100.56 per barrel at 0400 GMT. This is expected to lead to a weekly gain of about 9%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), for April, was down 16 cents or 0.2%, at $95.57 per barrel. However, it is also expected to rise 7% for the week. Analysts said that the license issued by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was not enough to solve wider supply constraints. "ICE Brent Futures have already broken $100 per barrel, and they are still supported, despite the moves to calm markets, with the Russian oil 'waiver' and the unprecedented release emergency stockpiles," Emril Jamil said, senior analyst at LSEG. The market views this as a temporary solution, which does not deal with the "crux" of the disruption in supply. The crude intermonth spreads in future months show a continued and unresolved tightness of?supply," Jamil stated. Jamil stated that Brent is supported more than WTI because Europe is more vulnerable to energy security concerns, whereas the U.S. can stave off their exposure due to domestic production. Analyst Yang An at Haitong Futures said that the issue of the license will not resolve the fundamental problem. "The most important thing for the Strait of Hormuz is to restore navigation." The announcement about Russian oil comes a day after U.S. Energy Department announced that the U.S. will release 172 millions barrels of oil to curb the skyrocketing price of oil. This plan was coordinated in conjunction with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which agreed to release a record-breaking 400 million barrels from strategic oil stockpiles. The U.S. also contributed. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the'resurgence of Middle East risks' shattered any temporary relief triggered by IEA. The benchmark prices for both products rose by more than 9% Thursday, reaching their highest levels since August 20,22. Mojtaba Khmenei, Iran's supreme leader, said that Iran will continue to fight and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as leverage against Israel and the United States. Iraqi security officials reported that two fuel tanks in Iraqi waters had been struck by Iranian boats laden with explosives, on Thursday. Iraqi officials told state media that oil ports in the country have stopped operating. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, told Sky News that the U.S. Navy would, possibly with an international alliance, escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it was militarily feasible. (Reporting from Jeslyn Li in Singapore, Sam Li in Beijing and Lewis Jackson; editing by Tom Hogue).
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As supply concerns increase, iron ore prices rise.
The price of iron ore futures rose for the third session in a row on Friday, as expanded restrictions on cargoes by mining giant BHP caused concerns about supply. These were further exacerbated by expectations that?hot metal production would increase in?China. As of 0318 GMT, the most-traded?contract? for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange climbed by 3.22% to 818.7 yuan (118.87 dollars) per metric ton. Earlier in the session, the contract reached a high of 827 Yuan for two months. The benchmark iron ore for April on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.7% to $108.6 per ton. Both contracts have gained 6.5% this week. China has increased its ban on BHP iron ore a second time in just two weeks. This is a result of a contract dispute that has been ongoing for months with the world's third largest supplier of this key ingredient. Three sources familiar with the matter said that China Mineral Resources Group, the state-run buyer of iron ore, told domestic steel mills and 'traders' on Thursday they were prohibited from taking delivery of Newman Fines, a popular BHP ore stored in ports. Beijing has gradually tightened restrictions for local steel mills, traders and buyers of BHP iron ore in the last six months while it negotiates terms for BHP's supply contract 2026. Last week, traders were instructed to buy fewer Newman lumps, Newman fines and Mac fines. However, the directive also allowed them to purchase the grades of iron ore that are already in port storage. The ban this week restricts the buying to?stocks of?BHP Newman lumps or Mac fines that are already stored in ports. After the lifting of production cuts last week, it is expected that demand for feedstock will increase. The inspections and maintenance of the key Chinese steelmaking hub Hebei have also been completed, and warmer weather has encouraged construction. Coking coal and coke, both of which are used in steelmaking, grew by 2.84% and 1.65%, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have increased. Rebar increased by 0.7%, while hot-rolled coils gained 0.85%. Wire rod also firmed up 0.18%, and stainless steel hardened 0.422%. ($1 = 6.8855 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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Trump believes Iran's supreme leader, the new supreme leader, is still alive but damaged
Donald Trump said that the new Iranian Supreme leader Mojtaba Khmenei is still alive, but "damaged." His father, the previous supreme ruler, was killed in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran on the very first day. Khamenei has not been seen in Iran since he was selected on Sunday by the clerical council. His first remarks were read by a television presenter on a Thursday. A senior Iranian official said on Wednesday the newly-appointed supreme leader was only lightly injured, but continued to work. State television had described him as a war-wounded man. "I think (he is) probably alive." In an interview with Fox News' "The Brian Kilmeade show," Trump stated, "I think he has been damaged, but I believe he is probably alive, in some form." Fox News published his remarks late Thursday. Khamenei made his first remarks in which he vowed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and urged neighboring countries to shut down?U.S. Bases on their territory are at risk of being targeted by Iran. On February 28, the U.S., Israel and other countries began attacking Iran. Iran responded by launching its own attacks on Israel and Gulf states with U.S. base. As the war neared a two-week mark and thousands of people had been killed, the leaders of Iran and Israel, as well as the United States, all expressed defiance and vowed to continue fighting.
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Finance Minister: Japan is ready to take action against sharp yen fluctuations
Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance Minister, said that the country is prepared to take any steps necessary against sharp swings on foreign exchange and other financial markets. These have a major impact on peoples' livelihoods. Katayama said at a regular press conference that it was "clear" that the Middle East crisis had caused significant volatility in financial markets. She said that the government was ready to take action at any time to respond to the sharp swings in the market, particularly those caused by the surging oil price. The yen reached 159.43 yen on Thursday. This is the lowest since January 14. An escalating Middle East war has pushed crude oil prices up, raising concerns about inflation and slowing growth. As Japan is heavily dependent on?energy imports, a weaker yen may also worsen the impact of higher oil prices. Katayama said that a recent Group of Seven meeting, which included U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott?Bessent, had discussed the financial markets, including exchange rates. She added, "In any event, we are keeping extremely close communication with U.S. authorities, even closer than usual."
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After drone attack, several French soldiers are wounded and one officer is killed in Iraq
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned on Friday an attack that left one French officer dead and?wounded a number of soldiers in?Erbil. The French army announced on Thursday that six French soldiers who were 'providing counter-terrorism training' in the area had been injured in a drone strike, only hours after another Italian base in the same region was targeted. France has hundreds in Erbil as part of an international coalition fighting?Islamic State militants. In a tweet, Macron stated that Chief Warrant Officer 'Arnaud?Frion "died" for France and that several of our soldiers were injured in the attack. He said: "This attack on?our forces that have been fighting Daesh since 2015, is unacceptable." The presence of French soldiers in Iraq falls'strictly under the umbrella of the fight against terror. The war in Iran does not 'justify' such attacks. The drone's origin was not immediately apparent. According to two Iraqi sources who are close to the group and three Iraqi sources, the Shi'ite militants of Iraq have increased the number of missile and drone attacks against U.S. interests within Iraq over the past three to four days. In a press release, Erbil Governor Omed Koshnaw stated that the drone strike was carried out in the Makhmour region. The Italian Defence Ministry said that the overnight airstrike on an Italian military base was deliberate. It targeted a facility hosting NATO personnel. France has deployed about a dozen navy vessels, including an aircraft carrier strike group to the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and possibly the Strait of Hormuz, as part of its defensive support for ally countries threatened by the Middle East conflict. Leaders of Iran, Israel, and the United States have all voiced their defiance, and pledged to continue fighting as the Middle East war approaches the two-week mark this Friday. The conflict has killed thousands, disrupted the lives of millions, and shaken financial markets. (Reporting and editing by John Irish and Ahmed Rasheed; Mrinmay dey and Michael Perry).
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Asian stocks fall as Iran's war on oil keeps it near $100 and denies rate-cut betting
Asian stocks fell on Friday as oil prices rose due to the fading hopes for a solution to the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. This cast a shadow on global markets, and sparked inflation fears. The?U.S. The dollar has been the currency of choice during the turmoil, and most other currencies have come under pressure. The dollar is up 2% in the last two weeks since the outbreak of the war at the end February. Oil prices remain close to the $100 per barrel mark, although they have eased slightly in early Friday trading after U.S. granted a license to countries for a period of 30 days to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product currently stranded on sea. Brent futures was last at $99.85 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $95.05 per barrel. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index eased by 0.5% in Asia. It is on track to decline 1.5% for the week. Japan's Nikkei index fell by 1.3%. South Korean tech stocks fell nearly 2%, and Taiwanese equities dropped 1%. Investors are preparing for a long conflict and higher oil costs as Iran's new Supreme Leader,?Mojtaba Khmenei, vows to close the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have re-priced what they expect from central bankers this year due to the threat of inflation. Traders now anticipate just 20 basis points compared to 50 basis points last month. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior rates analyst at TD Securities said that the markets were positioned to cut the Fed this year but now the U.S.'s incursion into Iran has taken away the ability to justify Fed reductions. The markets are recalibrating themselves for a higher rate. The selling of global stocks and bonds is not showing signs of abating. U.S. stock prices fell dramatically overnight, and two-year Treasury yields, typically moving in line with Fed expectations of interest rates, reached a six-month-high on Thursday. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC Singapore. He said that investors should prepare themselves for further volatility in the short term and possible further decline. SWIRL INFLATION WORRIES Jose Torres said that the rising oil price has a negative impact on corporate margins and inflation expectations. He also noted that rate-cutting prospects, yields, and future rate cuts are all causing market volatility. Participants have few options to hide. In fact, the waning optimism regarding Fed rate cuts amid increasing cost pressures has weighed on traditional safe-havens like silver, gold and government debt. After reaching its highest level since the 22nd of August on Thursday, the yield for two-year notes eased 3 basis points to 3.730%. Since the start of the war, the yield has increased by?35 basis points. This month, the yield on 30-year bonds has increased by 24 basis points. Investors will?focus on a series of policy meetings that are scheduled for next week. The Fed, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, as well as the Bank of England, all have to meet. Most of these meetings are expected to maintain rates. Reserve Bank of Australia rates are widely expected to increase next week. The euro was last priced at $1.1527. It is still on track to experience a weekly decline of almost 1%. The dollar index stood at 99.599. This was a 0.8% increase for the week. The yen has firmed up a little to 159.13 dollars, hovering just below the 160 mark. However, the talk of possible intervention is 'fairly muted. Analysts say the bar is higher for Tokyo to intervene due to the recent oil price shock. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. It makes no sense to spend precious intervention ammunition - verbal or physically - to try to defend the 160ish this time. The price of gold was 0.7% higher on Friday at $5,114 an ounce but is expected to drop 1% for the entire week. (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee, Singapore; Editing and proofreading by Sam Holmes).
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Oil prices drop after US grants license to countries to purchase Russian oil that has been stranded on sea for 30 Days
The price of oil dropped Friday morning, after the U.S. granted a license to countries for a period of 30 days to purchase Russian oil as well as?petroleum stranded in the sea. This eased supply concerns. Brent futures fell 71 cents or 0.71% to $99.75 per barrel at 0123 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), was?down 88 cts or 0.92% to $94.85. The license was granted in what Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent described as a move to stabilize global energy markets that were roiled by war in Iran. The license will not resolve the fundamental problem. Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures, said that the most important thing was the restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement about Russian oil comes a day after the U.S. Energy Department announced that the U.S. will release 172,000,000 barrels of oil out of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 'tame the sky-high oil prices following the war in Iran. This plan was coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which?agreed? to release 400 million barrels from strategic oil stockpiles. contribution. In a note, IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the IEA'release' was followed by a dangerous reescalation in Middle East risks. The benchmark prices both rose more than 9% Thursday, and reached their highest level since August 2022. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khmenei has said that Iran will continue to fight and close the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against Israel and the United States. Iraqi officials reported that two fuel?tankers were hit by Iranian boats laden with explosives in Iraqi waters on Thursday. Iraqi officials told state-run media that oil port operations in the country have been halted. Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that Oman had moved all its vessels from the main oil export terminal in Mina Al?Fahal outside of the Strait of Hormuz as a precautionary measure. Other measures are also being taken to reduce the risks. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Sky News that the U.S. Navy would, perhaps along with an international alliance, escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it was militarily feasible. Saudi Arabia reportedly pays a premium for tankers to be rerouted?towards the Red Sea using its East-West pipeline to transport oil on global markets. In his note, IG's Sycamore stated that Iran allows one or two tankers a week to pass, mainly towards China. This keeps China on their side and the cash flowing. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Sam Li)
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Australian shares fall on inflation fears, Northern Star falls on output warning
Australian shares dropped on Friday, as rising oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict fueled inflation fears. Meanwhile, gold miner Northern Star fell after announcing difficulties in achieving its annual production forecast. By 2333 GMT, the?S&P/ASX 200 was?down _0.3%? at 8,611.20. The benchmark index has lost 6.5% in the last two weeks, since the Middle East War began. The oil price rose on Thursday, reaching its highest level in almost four years. This was due to Iran's increased attacks on oil and transportation facilities throughout the Middle East. Markets projected a 78% probability of an increase at the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on 17 March, up from 20%. Northern Star Resources plummeted as much as 16.6%. It is on course for its worst session since late March 2020 after the company announced operational setbacks in one of Australia's biggest open-pit gold mining operations, Kalgoorlie Consolidated Mines. Lower gold prices weighed down on the Australian gold peers as well as the broader mining index, which both fell by 4.3% and 1.8% respectively. The dollar strengthened and bets that the U.S. Fed would cut rates eased. The conflict and Northern Star's fall wiped out gold sub-index gains for the year, after it had more than doubled on a bullion price rally in 2025. Financials increased 0.5%, which helped limit the overall loss, but if momentum continues, it is likely that a third straight week of?loss will follow. All four "Big Four' lenders gained between 0.3% to 0.7%. Energy stocks rose by 1.1% due to higher oil prices. Karoon Energy, however, lost?1.8% when it announced that Brazil had imposed a 12 percent tax on oil exports. Karoon has a Brazilian asset, the Bauna Project. The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index in New Zealand fell 0.5% to 13,133.31.
Sources: China expands BHP iron ore banning amid contract negotiations
China has increased its 'ban on BHP Iron Ore for the second time in just two weeks. This is a result of a contract dispute that has been ongoing for months with the third largest supplier of this key ingredient to steelmaking.
Three sources familiar with the situation said that China Mineral Resources Group, the state-run buyer of iron ore, told domestic steel mills on Thursday they were prohibited from accepting Newman fines – a popular BHP ore found in ports – starting late next week.
According to two anonymous sources, customers will be able to receive their cargoes in the next five days.
One of the sources said, "We had a feeling (that the day would arrive when more BHP products were restricted) and we waited for it to come. It was not a big surprise."
BHP declined comment, and CMRG didn't immediately respond to a comment request.
Beijing has gradually tightened the restrictions on local steel mills and traders purchasing BHP iron ore in the last six months, as it negotiates terms for BHP's supply contract 2026.
China banned the purchase of Jimblebar Fines, another iron ore product, in September. This was followed by Jinbao in November.
Last week, traders were instructed to purchase fewer Newman fines (also known as Newman lumps) and Mac fines. However, the directive did allow for the purchase of grades of iron ore that are already in port.
The ban this week restricts the purchase of BHP Newman lumps or Mac fines that are already in port storage.
SPILL-OVER EFFECT
The traders are dumping the cargos because they believe that more restrictions will be announced soon, making it impossible for them to sell.
Another source said, "We plan to sell all Newman Fines at ports within the next few days, and will also get rid of Mac Fines, even if they are not currently under this wave of restrictions, because you never know when you won't be able to take delivery of Mac Fins."
The benchmark April iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange jumped by over 4% to $108.95 on Thursday afternoon, reaching their highest level since early January.
According to another trader, the portside stock of Newman Fines was 3.17 million tonnes as of this week. This is up 55% since October.
(source: Reuters)