East Asia

Crude oil prices have been driven primarily by the unwinding OPEC+ production cut, China storage flows, and geopolitical tensions this year. This is likely to continue for the foreseeable. It is important to understand the factors that influence the market. It is impossible to predict with accuracy the future of these factors. Forecasting the market is a difficult task for the crude oil industry because all three factors are unpredictable and can change rapidly. The Energy Markets Forum, held in Fujairah (the hub for oil storage and shipping in the United Arab Emirates) this week, was a place where participants...

Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors knew that the U.S. labor market was in need of support. But the miserable ADP Employment Report, released to the market at the same time as the shutdown of the federal government, is particularly alarming. ADP reported that payrolls fell by 32,000, compared to the economists' expectations of a rise of 50,000 for September. The 54,000 increase for August has been revised down to a slight decline. For the moment, traders are adopting a narrative that "bad news is a good news", and...

Tech shares rose on Thursday, boosting Asia stock indexes, while gold hovered at a record-high and the dollar sank as a weak U.S. Labour Market Report boosted bets that Federal Reserve interest rates would be cut. It was almost certain that the U.S. shutdown would prevent the release of vital monthly payroll data on Friday. However, overnight, the ADP private employment report revealed the unexpected loss of jobs in September. The prior month had also been revised downwards. Even without official labour data, traders priced in quarter-point Fed rates cuts at both of the remaining two policy meetings for the...

Wall Street futures, the dollar and gold all fell on Wednesday as the U.S. Government shut down most of its operations. This could delay the release of important jobs data, which may muddy interest rate forecasts. The government shutdown, which has no way out of its impasse regarding a funding agreement, will halt the release a closely-watched September employment report. It could also lead to the furloughing of 750,000 federal employees at a cost of $400,000,000 per day. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by about 0.5% on Wednesday. Gold prices rose to $3,895 per ounce in a record-breaking...

Wall Street futures dropped, gold reached a record-high and the dollar eased as the U.S. Government shut down most of its operations on Wednesday, potentially delaying the release crucial jobs data which could cloud the interest rate outlook. The government shutdown, which has no way out of its impasse regarding a funding agreement, will halt the release a closely-watched September employment report. It could also lead to the furloughing of 750,000 federal employees at a cost of $400,000,000 per day. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell 0.5% on Tuesday. Gold prices rose to $3,875 per ounce in the third...

Wall Street futures fell, gold reached a record-high and Asian stocks wilted on Wednesday as the deadline for the U.S. Government shutdown passed. This is expected to delay release of important jobs data and cloud the interest rate outlook. The government shutdown has no way out. Agencies warned that there was no clear solution. It would prevent the release of an employment report for September, which is closely watched. This would also lead to the furloughing of 750,000 federal employees at a cost of $400,000,000 per day. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures both fell by 0.5%. Gold prices rose to...

On Tuesday, the world's markets were cautious. The dollar and stocks fell and gold briefly hit new records on concerns that a U.S. shutdown could delay important jobs data. As Washington prepared for an imminent government shutdown, the dollar fell while U.S. stocks and European shares either remained flat or made small gains. The government shutdown would delay Friday's important employment figures, and put the spotlight on the Labor Department JOLTS report for August job openings that is due on Tuesday. This could also affect the Federal Reserve's outlook, as they cut rates earlier in the month. Monica Guerra is...

As markets assessed the likelihood of a U.S. shutdown, which would delay release of closely-watched jobs data, shares in Asia rose on Tuesday. Gold also maintained its record rise. As widely anticipated, the Australian dollar gained after the central banks held rates at their current levels. Oil prices fell due to expectations of increased production by OPEC+. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity declined for a sixth consecutive month in September. After little progress was made in budget negotiations between Donald Trump and Democratic opposition, U.S. vice president JD Vance stated that the government "seemed to be headed for a shutdown". The...

What will the ROI team be reading, watching and listening to this weekend? Hello Morning Bid readers! Yesterday, the job of U.S. Federal Reserve became a little more difficult. The first was the news that the second quarter GDP had been revised upwards to 3.8%. This is now the fastest growth rate since 3Q2023. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, announced new tariffs including 100% levies for branded drugs as well as 25% tariffs for heavy-duty trucks. Details are unclear, and there will be certain exemptions. However, the combination of resilient growth and possible price increases calls into question expectations of...

The Russian rouble gained against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese yuan Friday. This was due to the fact that corporate tax payments are due at the end the month, and there is certainty regarding the new state budget as well as new tax increases. LSEG data based off of over-the counter quotes showed that the rouble had strengthened by 0.5%, to 83.50 USD, as of 0930 GMT. The rouble was up 0.3% to 11.67 against the Chinese yuan. It is the most commonly traded foreign currency in Russia. Bogdan Zvarich, a PSB banker, said that if geopolitical expectations do...

Investors worried that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious in cutting interest rates after Thursday's surprising strong economic data. U.S. Treasury rates rose after the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economic growth was faster than initially thought in the second-quarter, thanks to a drop in imports and an increase in consumer spending. The second quarter gross domestic products increased at a rate of 3.8% annualized, compared to initial reports that it would be 3.3%. New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods increased unexpectedly in August. However, a decline in the shipments of...

The dollar grew after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell failed to confirm investors' expectations of U.S. rates falling sharply in the coming months. After U.S. president Donald Trump stated that he believes Ukraine can retake the land it has been occupied by Russia in a dramatic shift of rhetoric, in favour of Kyiv, European defence stocks rose. After seeing the economic trouble that the war is causing Russia I believe Ukraine with the support from the European Union is in a good position to fight and win all of Ukraine in its original state," he wrote in a post on...

The copper price rose to its highest level in 16 months on Thursday, as fears of shortages caused by supply disruptions and the lower dollar surpassed weak demand forecasts for China's leading consumer. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 1% to $10,479 per metric ton, up from $10,520.5. This is the highest level since May of last year, when industrial metal prices reached record highs over $11,100 per ton. The latest on supplies comes from Indonesia, where Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg operations suspended operations on 8 September after a deadly mudslide. The suspension of operations at Grasberg...

Sources said that Russian companies' plans for low-cost financing through China's massive bond market are not working because Chinese investors and banks avoid them due to concerns over Western sanctions. The conundrum shows how difficult it is for Russian companies to raise capital in a country which has been an ally since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine over three years ago. Beijing, which is seeking a deal with Washington while also forging a partnership with Russia - a relationship that is said to have no limits - is being put to the test. Last month, sources at top Russian companies including...

The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed concern on Wednesday about a report stating that China's iron ore state buyer has taken steps to stop purchases of iron ore from BHP. Bloomberg News reported Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the situation, that the state-owned China Mineral Resources Group had asked steelmakers and traders in the country to halt purchases of BHP’s seaborne iron ore shipments denominated in dollars during the annual price negotiations. Albanese, a reporter, said: "I'm concerned about this and we want to ensure that the markets are operating properly." We have dealt with these issues before. I...

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as investors took profits after the price hit a record earlier in the day. However, concerns about a U.S. shutdown and an increase in bets for a Federal Reserve rate reduction limited losses. As of 0924 GMT, spot gold was down 0.9% at $3,800.34 an ounce after gaining 1% during Asia hours to reach a record high price of $3,871.45 per ounce. Bullion is up 10.4% in September and on course to have its largest monthly percentage gain since the month of July 2020. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.7% to $3.827.80....

Bloomberg News, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that China's iron ore purchaser has instructed major steelmakers to temporarily stop purchasing any seaborne iron ore freights denominated in dollars from BHP. China is the largest consumer of iron ore in the world, and purchases about 75% global seaborne ore. BHP is also the largest publicly listed mining company. China Mineral Resources Group, a state-owned buyer of iron ore, was created in 2022 to help Beijing increase its iron ore pricing power. BHP reported last month that it had recorded its lowest annual profit in five years due to a...

Industry and government sources claim that India's private power producers are urging the government to allow the importation of equipment from China. They say the domestic resources available in the country are not enough and expensive, and the country is looking to increase its coal-based generation. India's Ministry of Power, as part of its "Make in India", mandated that homemade equipment be used in 2021. The initiative was designed to boost local manufacturing. This programme was also launched at a time of high diplomatic tensions between China and India. According to a letter that was reviewed by, the Association of...

Iron ore prices fell Tuesday due to weak China manufacturing data. However, they recorded solid gains for the quarter as export-driven rallies from July and August overshadowed recent declines. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 0.64% lower, at 780.5 Yuan ($109.58). The contract fell 0.51% in this month's trading, but finished the quarter with a 9.89% gain. As of 0709 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore price on Singapore Exchange was down 0.05% at $105.25 per ton. The contract is up 12.27% in the first quarter. According to an official survey...

Shanghai tin reached a six-month high Tuesday as supply concerns grew following reports about a crackdown against illegal mining in Indonesia, a key producer. The Indonesian president Prabowo Subito ordered the closing of 1,000 illegal tin mining operations on the island Sumatra where tin-mined goods were being smuggled on small boats and ferryboats, according to state media Antara. Antara quoted Prabowo as saying that 80% of the tin produced in the main producing region of Bangkia Belitung, off the east shore of Sumatra, was being smuggled abroad. Fears of a lower supply in the second largest tin-producing country in the...

Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday due to weak China manufacturing data. However, they are on track for a solid quarter gain as export-driven rallies from July and August have outweighed recent declines. As of 0238 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.45% to 782 yuan (109.73 dollars) per metric ton. The contract is down 0.51% this month but up 9.82% for the quarter. On the Singapore Exchange, September benchmark iron ore was down 0.05% at $105.25 per ton. The contract is up 12.27% in the first quarter. According to...

Iron ore prices fell on Monday due to a sluggish demand for steel and a buildup of inventories in Chinese ports. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime trading 1.57% lower, at 784 Yuan ($1010.11) per metric ton. As of 0705 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down by 0.02% to $105.3 per ton. Analysts from ANZ noted that iron ore futures dropped sharply during the week of October 1-8 due to a slowdown in steel mill restocking. Hexun Futures, a Chinese broker, said that a combination of...

Lithium Argentina’s Cauchari-Olaroz Project in northern Argentina aims to produce 85,000 tons of battery metal per year by 2029. This is more than triple the output last year, according to Executive Vice President Ignacio Celorrio. This is one of six projects in Argentina that produce lithium, which is used to make batteries for electric cars. Lithium Argentina (listed in Canada and the U.S.) and Ganfeng Lithium, a Chinese company, are developing Cauchari-Olaroz in the Lithium Triangle, which spans Argentina and Chile, as well as Bolivia. Celorrio, speaking on the sidelines a lithium-related conference in Buenos Aires on Tuesday, said that...

The price of copper fell on Friday, as the rally this week -- driven by concerns about supply following an accident in the second-largest mine in the world -- affected demand. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.6%, to $10.202.50 per metric ton at 0947 GMT. After a disruption in the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, analysts have lowered their forecasts of global supply for 2025 and 2020. Indonesia's government has reached an agreement with Freeport Indonesia, to stop operations at the mine in order to prioritize the search for trapped employees, said the country's Mining...