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Stocks surge on Fed rate-cut hopes following disappointing jobs data

Investors raised their bets that the Federal Reserve will act to support the world's biggest economy. Global stocks rose for the second session of the day on Tuesday.

U.S. stocks rallied Monday, boosted by generally positive earnings reports. Bets on a Fed rate cut in September increased after Friday's disappointing jobs report.

The oil prices fell after OPEC+ increased their output, and gold was hovering near a week-high.

Rodrigo Catril is a senior currency strategist with National Australia Bank. He said that there are signs of weakness within the U.S.

The STOXX 600 index rose 0.4% to start the day in Europe. This is the second consecutive day that the STOXX 600 has been up.

The question is: Is bad news bad (economy slowing) or is it good (Fed moving toward rate cuts)? Mohit Kumar, a Jefferies strategist, said that the answer depends on whether or not bad data is being reported and what is priced in.

"A modest slowdown in the economy is good news, as the Fed should ease up more." A sustained and sharp increase in unemployment rates, however, would be a concern as it could affect growth and earnings.

The dollar rose modestly against the Japanese yen, reaching 147.6. Meanwhile, the euro dropped 0.25%, to $1.1543. The dollar index (which tracks the greenback's value against a basket six other currencies) rose 0.34% following a two-day slide.

The soft U.S. payroll data on Friday added weight to the argument for a Fed cut, and gained another level of drama when President Donald Trump fired the head of the labour statistics department responsible for these figures.

CME Fedwatch says that the odds of a rate cut in September are now at 94%. This is up from 63% on July 28. The market participants expect at least two quarter point cuts before the end of the year.

The news that Trump will fill the Fed governorship early has also added to concerns about politicization in interest rate policy.

Trump threatened again to increase tariffs on Indian goods above the 25% level announced by Trump last month, due to India's Russian oil purchases. New Delhi called Trump's attack "unjustified", and pledged to protect its own economic interests.

Brent crude futures are down 1% to a two-week low of $68.05 per barrel.

It remains to be determined if the primary goal is the threat of secondary sanction on India's funding of Russia. This move could be a way to increase the U.S.'s leverage over India, forcing it to allow agricultural imports into its country or to commit to buying U.S.-produced energy.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the earnings reports of Walt Disney, Caterpillar and other companies this week.

Palantir Technologies' revenue forecast was raised for the second time in this year, as it expects to see sustained demand for artificial intelligence services.

U.S. index futures rose between 0.2-0.4% at the opening of trading, suggesting a modest increase.

The data released on Tuesday revealed that the business activity in euro zone increased at a faster rate in July than it did in June. However, it remained slow.

A separate UK survey showed

British Businesses

In July, the company reported its largest decline in new orders for almost three years and reduced staff by the most in six-months.

The service sector in Asia's two largest economies has shown resilience. S&P Global's final services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures the performance of the service sector in Japan, grew to 53.6 from 51.7 in the previous month. This was the largest increase since February. China's service sector expanded last month at the fastest rate in over a year.

Bitcoin fell 0.6%, to $114.235, and gold rose 0.1%, to $3.375 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)