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Iron ore prices rise as China promises more 'proactive fiscal policies' in 2026
Iron ore prices rose on Monday, as the top steel-making ingredient's demand was boosted by China's promise to adopt more "proactive fiscal policies" in 2026. The most-traded iron ore contract for May on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed morning trade at 800 yuan (114.12 dollars) per metric ton after reaching its highest level at 803 yuan at the start of?the session. As of 0343 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange rose 1.32% to $106.05 per ton. The price of iron ore in January hit its highest level since November 27 at $106.3. China's Finance Ministry said on Sunday that fiscal policies would be more proactive next year, and China will boost consumption and actively expand investment in new productive forces. Everbright Futures, a Chinese broker, said that iron ore prices were also supported by "some steelmills resuming production after completing annual smelter maintenance" which meant a greater demand for feedstocks including iron ore. Mysteel, a consultancy, said that "improved?margins due to lower production costs" supported iron ore prices. The easing of concern in the real estate market was also a temporary boost to sentiment. China developer Vanke’s bondholders had approved a proposal by the state-backed company to extend the grace period of repayment for a 3.7 billion yuan loan. Coking coal and coke both rose by 1.13% and 0.611% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. The rebar rose by 1.09% and hot-rolled coils increased by 0.98%. Stainless steel remained unchanged, while wire rod dropped 2.2%. $1 = 7.101 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Amy Lv and Ruth Chai)
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Silver dips after breaking $80/ounce
As investors took profits and geopolitical tensions eased, precious metals fell on Monday. Silver traded lower after breaking $80 an ounce earlier that day, and gold was a little less than record highs. As of 0242 GMT spot gold was down by 0.4% to $4,512.74 an ounce after reaching a record-high of $4,549.71 last Friday. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery lost 0.4% per ounce to $4,536.40 Silver spot fell?1.3%, to $78.12 an ounce. It had earlier reached a session high of $83.62. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst, said that a combination of?profit-taking and apparently productive talks between Trump & Zelensky about a possible peace deal has put gold and?silver in the rear view mirror. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy are "getting closer" to an agreement?to?end?the war in Ukraine. Silver is up 181% in the last year, surpassing gold. This was due to its status as an important U.S. Mineral, shortages of supply, and low stocks amid a rising industrial demand and investment. Bullion is also on a spectacular rally for 2025. It has risen 72% and broken multiple records. The gold price has been boosted by a "cocktail" of factors including the expectation of more U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand as they move away from U.S. securities and dollars. Waterer stated that $5,000 was a "viable" target for gold in the coming year, provided the next Federal Reserve Chairman added a more dovish tone to Fed policy. Waterer stated that "rate?cuts, a continued robust industrial appetite and supply?shortages combined with a rise in silver to $100 by 2026" could be the catalyst for this. The traders still expect the U.S. to cut interest rates twice next year. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Palladium fell 8%, to $1,771.99 an ounce. Spot platinum dropped 0.4% to $2,441.20 after reaching a record high of $2478.50 the previous day. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)
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Copper trades near $13,000 after Christmas in a record-breaking catch-up.
The sharp rally that occurred in Shanghai last week spilled over into a global market that was curtailed by the Christmas holiday. As of 0250 GMT the benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had risen 5.86%, to $12,875 a metric ton, after having set a session record of $12960. After briefly touching a record high of 102.660 yuan, the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 3.43%, to 101.480 yuan. The London benchmark copper contracts?is closing with gains made by the Shanghai contract while the London exchange was closed for the Christmas holiday. Shanghai copper rose 5.81% in the last week while London copper gained a gain of 1.93%. The low prices due to the supply shortage led a group of China's leading smelters to decide on Thursday not to provide guidance for copper concentrate processing charges in the first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, China announced on Friday that it would limit its copper production capacity in the next 5-year plan to support gains in Shanghai copper. The traders who bet on the Fed cutting interest rates by two more times also supported the Monday rally. They are waiting for the minutes of the Fed's December meeting to be released on Tuesday in order to get clues about how the policy makers plan on balancing the risks of both inflation and a weakening labour market. All metals experienced a year-end rally on Monday. Aluminium rose by 0.96% on the London market. Zinc gained 1.33%. Lead advanced 1.15%. Nickel advanced 1.23%. Tin climbed by 2.01%. Aluminium, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin all advanced in the SHFE base metals.
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Investors weigh Middle East tensions as they consider oil gains
Investors weighed Middle East tensions which could disrupt supply and a major obstacle remains in the Russia-Ukraine talks. Brent crude futures were up?56 -cents or 0.92% to $61.20 a barrel at 0236 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 51 cents or 0.9% to $57.25. Both benchmark prices dropped more than 2% Friday, as investors considered a global glut of supply and the possibility that a Ukraine peace deal could be reached ahead of weekend discussions between U.S. president Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The geopolitical tensions are still high, and Russia and Ukraine continue to strike each other's energy infrastructure. "The Middle East?has?also been unsettling recently, with Saudi Air Strikes in Yemen and Iran claiming?the country was in a?full-scale conflict' with the U.S. Europe and Israel. Yang said that this may be the reason for market concern about possible supply disruptions. U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Sunday that both he and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy are "getting closer, perhaps very close" to a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine. However, both leaders admitted that many of the most difficult details remain unresolved. Both leaders held a press conference together late on Sunday afternoon, after meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago Resort in Florida. Trump stated that it would be obvious "in a matter of 'weeks'" if the negotiations to end this war were successful. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said that while the peace talks were positive there was still a'significant obstacle' in the form of territorial control for the?Donbas area. WTI will likely trade in a range of $55 to $60, with an eye on the?U.S. Sycamore stated in a report that enforcement actions would be taken against Venezuelan oil exports and the fallout of a U.S. strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria. Nigeria produces approximately 1.5 million barrels / day. Reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Ryan Woo; Editing by Raju Gopikrishnan, Thomas Derpinghaus
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Investors weigh Middle East tensions as they consider oil gains
Investors weighed Middle East tensions which could disrupt supply and a major obstacle remains in the Russia-Ukraine talks. Brent crude futures rose 57 cents, or 0.94%, to $61.21 a barrel at?0112 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), however was up 54 cents, or 0.95%. The benchmark prices of both oil and gold fell by more than 2 percent on Friday, as investors considered a global glut of supply and the potential for a peace agreement in Ukraine ahead of weekend negotiations between U.S. president Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The main reason for the price increase is because geopolitical tensions are still high, and Russia and Ukraine continue to strike each other's infrastructures over the weekend. The Middle East is also unrest, with Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and Iran claiming that the country is at a "full-scale battle" with the U.S. Europe and Israel. This may be the reason for market concerns over potential supply disruptions, said Yang An of Haitong Futures. U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Sunday that both he and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy are "getting closer, perhaps very close" to a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine. Both leaders, however, acknowledged that many of the most difficult details still remain unresolved. Both leaders held a press conference together late on Sunday afternoon, after their meeting at Trump's Mar-a-Lago?resort. Trump stated that it would be evident "in a couple of weeks" if the negotiations to end the war are successful. Peace talks were positive. Tony Sycamore, IG analyst, said that there was no breakthrough and a major obstacle remains - the territorial control of Donbas. IG stated in a report that crude oil will trade in a range of $55 to $60, with an eye on US enforcement actions against Venezuelan shipments, and any possible fallout from US military strikes against ISIS targets, in Nigeria. Nigeria produces approximately 1.5 million barrels a day. (Reporting from Sam Li and Ryan Woo, Beijing; Editing done by Raju Gopalakrishnan).
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Australia shares rise on miners' and gold rally
Australian shares rose on Monday as mining and gold stocks extended gains to reach record highs. This was due to a rise in commodity prices that overshadowed the losses of?energy companies. S&P/ASX 200 index increased 0.2% to 8,777.90 by 2319 GMT. The benchmark index fell by 0.4% before the markets closed on Boxing Day and Christmas Day. The mining stocks rose by 1.1%, reaching a new record high. Copper prices reached a new high on Friday and iron ore prices also increased. Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore company, rose 0.7% following a?briefly reaching another record high. The Anglo Australian miner is looking to shift its focus towards its copper business in order to take advantage of record-high prices during a green energy revolution. Gold stocks climbed to record highs, tracking the bullion's persistent rally. Northern?Star Resources, Evolution Mining and other gold producers jumped by 1.4% and 1.33% respectively. The rise in the price of mining stocks has been nearly 42%, outperforming that of the benchmark index, which is up 7.6%. This was due to strong commodity prices, and a rotation away from bank shares, which are expensive. Westpac, one of the "big four", fell 0.6% on the day. The sub-index is up for five weeks in a row. The valuation?concerns persisted throughout the year as Australian banks boasted some of the richest multiples in comparison to their peers from developed countries. The sub-index is up 8.5% this year compared to the 28% increase in 2024. Energy stocks also lost 0.5% on Friday, as oil prices fell. Investors weighed the looming glut of this commodity. Woodside Energy, a producer of oil and gas, and Santos both fell by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand rose by 0.1% to 13,547.74.
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Beijing's plan to control the global iron ore markets
China's iron ore state buyer uses increasingly aggressive tactics against mining giants like BHP in order to tighten their grip on the $132 Billion seaborne market, and to extract better terms from steel?mills. This is happening just as an enormous new supply source is about to strengthen China's hand. China Mineral Resources Group, (CMRG), in November asked their steel mills and traders to refrain from buying spot cargoes for a second BHP-product. This was months after the group blacklisted a product that had raised concerns with Australia's top supplier. Analysts and traders said that the standoff over a supply deal for next years' supply?marked a significant escalation?because CMRG hadn't previously banned multiple products coming from a single provider. This shows how far the buyer, who has been in business for three years, is willing to go in order to get better terms for China’s steel industry. The deal is expected to account for around a fifth (or more) of China's production needs, as well as the majority of BHP's mines located in Australia's north-west. Interviews with over three dozen steel and mine executives, traders, and analysts indicate that CMRG is assertive but has had limited success. Some steelmakers privately complain that CMRG hasn't delivered better contract terms or prices they wanted. RBC analyst Kaan Peek in Sydney said that CMRG's tactic with BHP may set a precedent with Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Brazil's Vale. China is looking to reduce the 80% margins enjoyed by the 'iron ore' miners. CMRG's strategy has been refined and it has seen some successes, but also some mistakes. Three sources familiar with the matter said that, in a previously unknown move, a Chinese buyer obtained a freight-related discount of $1 per metric tonne on certain large cargo vessels from Rio last. CMRG became the sole Chinese supplier of iron ore to billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting after a long-running standoff, during which mills, traders and others claimed they had been pressured by Rinehart to not buy Roy Hill MB on the spot market for more than a full year. In implementing the strategy, CMRG actually made it more difficult for their own steelmakers. The company targeted a product of lower quality that was in demand during times when margins were extremely thin, and forced mills to spend more money to buy from other suppliers. CMRG refined its strategy to select products that would exert maximum force on individual miners while?minimizing market disruption. Several Chinese traders reported that mills who were banned from purchasing BHP's Jimblebar blend fines in September could easily substitute Rio's Pilbara Blend fines. BHP CEO Mike Henry said to CTV Canada in late December that the company is still in negotiations with Chinese clients. Hancock, Rio, Fortescue BHP, and Vale all declined to comment. CMRG - the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission - which directly supervises CMRG - the state-backed Steel Association and the world's largest steelmaker, China Baowu Steel Group - did not respond when asked for comment. In Search of Leverage China created CMRG 2022 in order to use its position as the largest iron ore purchaser to negotiate better terms with miners whose fat profit margins were a problem when steel mills had paper-thin or negative margins. Wood Mackenzie estimates that CMRG now negotiates on behalf of mills more than half the 1.2 billion metric tons per year of iron ore imported by China. CMRG wants to negotiate better terms on the index-linked price and other conditions, such as shipping and promoting more transactions via a domestic index. Some steelmakers privately complained early on that CMRG’s presence merely increased costs and reduced flexibility with their suppliers. It was bitter to give up negotiation rights, but it was also impossible for state-owned mills to refuse what was effectively a political mission. CMRG has become the dominant player in annual contract negotiations. However, traders and mills have said that it has failed to offer better prices. We have no choice but to pay a commission fee. "No, the company did not negotiate better terms or prices for us. "It's a politically charged task, and you must cooperate," said the manager of a steelmaker who refused to identify himself due to the sensitive nature of the issue. Steel industry sources claim that CMRG commission fees increased procurement costs for mills who were already suffering from low margins due to a downturn in the property sector. There have been many benefits, but especially for smaller mills. CMRG helped those who were unable to access credit lines to import iron ore, by acting as their buyer. CMRG is also aggressively buying spot cargoes via its Shanghai-based trading platform in an attempt to reduce volatility. Three sources confirmed this, and also said that the company has a trading target of 100 million tons by 2025. NEW SUPPLY SOURCE LOOMS Iron ore prices are still above $100 per ton despite China's slowing economic growth. They have been trading at this level since July. Wood Mackenzie predicts that prices will be $98 per tonne in 2026, and $95 per tonne in 2027. The vast Simandou Project in West Africa’s Guinea, however, is slated to provide around 7% global supply by 2028. This will tip the market into a surplus of 65 million tons and give CMRG a stronger bargaining position. Chinese companies are the largest shareholders in Simandou. Guinea is next, with a 22,5% stake, and Rio comes third, with a 22,5% stake. The ramp-up of Simandou has been widely viewed as a sign that the market dynamics are changing structurally. Peker, of RBC, said that it would fragment Australia's dominance when supplying iron ore into China. Peker stated that it is "sensible" for China to be aggressive in negotiating better terms of contract this year. Most mining executives that we spoke with agreed that CMRG will struggle to dominate a market if it doesn't have a dominant supply. The Chinese really want CMRG more effective. Demand and supply fundamentals continue to determine the price, said Gautam Varma founder of commodity consulting firm V2 Ventures who worked previously at Fortescue.
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The Kremlin has said that Trump and Putin do not support the idea of a temporary ceasefire between Europe and Ukraine.
The Kremlin announced on Sunday that?Russian President Vladimir Putin and the U.S. The Kremlin said on?Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and?U.S. Yuri Ushakov, Kremlin's foreign policy aide, said that a phone call between Putin - and Trump lasted an hour and fifteen minutes - at Trump's request ahead of Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Miami. Ushakov stated that "the main thing is that the presidents from Russia and the United States share the same view that the temporary ceasefire option proposed by the Ukrainians or the Europeans, under the pretext of preparation for a referendum (or under any other pretext), only leads to a prolongation in the conflict. It's fraught with renewed hostilities." Ushakov stated that in order for the hostilities to cease, Kyiv would need to take a "bold" decision?in line with Russian and U.S. discussions about Donbas. It would be logical for the Ukrainian regime, given the current situation on the fronts to take this decision about Donbas. (Reporting Anastasia Lyrchikova, Writing by Gleb Stallyarov, Editing by Guy Faulconbridge).
Asian stocks are rising, and precious metals have reached new records due to Fed rate cuts.
On Monday, Asian stocks reached six-week highs, and the dollar was near its lowest level in nearly three months. This is due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming year. It has also led to a strong rally in precious materials.
Silver, platinum and palladium all fell after reaching record highs. Gold fell by nearly 1%, but it has broken record highs several times this year due to dollar weakness, safe haven demand and bets on rate cuts.
Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that precious metals were boosted this year due to a powerful combination of rate-cutting tailwinds, and hedging geopolitical, fiscal, and economic uncertainty.
"Add in supply concerns and the move has become parabolic." Silver's near-vertical rise in late-year also increases the risk of increased volatility. The risk is primarily technical and position-driven in the near-term.
The big picture for precious metals, however, still looks structurally favorable with eased rates ahead, fiscal unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, and continuing diversification demand. Chanana stated that any pullbacks could be viewed as "opportunities by long-term investors" to rebuild their exposure.
Investors are once again focused on geopolitics after U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Sunday that the United States and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy "are getting a lot closer, perhaps very close" to a deal to end Ukraine's war.
Stocks have a strong year-end
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index was 0.27% up, reaching its highest level since October 3, in a positive start to the final week of the calendar year. The index is up over 25% in the last year. This was boosted by tech stocks, as AI mania took hold of investors.
South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.5% to reach a near two-month high, bringing its annual gains to 74%. This is on track to be its biggest gain since 1999. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.4% while Taiwan stocks rose to a new record high.
The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, due Tuesday, will be the focus for investors during the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. Central Bank cut rates this month, and forecast just one further cut for next year. However, traders have priced at least two additional cuts.
Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that markets would be scouring the minutes to gain deeper insight into the debates of the committee on the balance 'of risks and timing future easing.
Sycamore stated that the focus will shift to data on the labour market, including non-farm payrolls.
If these reports show unambiguous weakness in the labour market, it will increase likelihood of the Fed cutting?rates 25bp during its January FOMC Meeting.
FRAIL YEN SUPPORT
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% on Monday to 156.13 U.S. dollars after a summary of slightly hawkish opinions from the Bank of Japan policy meeting held in December was released. The summary revealed that many members of the BOJ board felt the need to increase the policy rate.
BOJ raised interest rates in a well-telegraphed decision earlier this month, but the markets were disappointed by comments made afterwards which suggested that the central bank wasn't in a hurry to raise again. This weighed down on the yen, and traders were worried about intervention after officials in Tokyo issued strong verbal warnings.
The yen is still close to its 10-month low, 157.9 yen per dollar (which it reached in November), and the risk of intervention remains as investors reduce their long Yen positions. The yen is still close to the 10-month low of 157.9 per dollar, which it reached in November.
The dollar has been under pressure due to the prospect of the Fed lowering rates next year. A new Fed chair who may be dovish or willing to lower interest rates is also a threat.
The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus six rivals) was 0.08% higher at 97.953, and is on course for a 9.7% decline for the year. This will be its steepest drop since 2017.
(source: Reuters)