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After attacks on Gulf shipping and Iran warning, oil prices jump, shares fall

Global stocks fell on Thursday, as the attacks on oil tankers and the warning from Iran undermined the prospects for an imminent deescalation of the Middle East conflict. Oil prices briefly rose above $100 per barrel and inflation fears were stoked.

The'reaction' shows how quickly bets placed on an early end to the 'war which gained momentum earlier in the week are being unwound.

The contradictory messages of U.S. president Donald Trump has left traders fearful that they will be caught off guard, causing them to stay away from the markets or find refuge in safe havens.

Wall Street stock indexes fell. Early trading saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 1.26%. The S&P 500 fell 0.82%. And the Nasdaq composite lost 0.77%.

The STOXX 600 index, which is a pan-European benchmark for equity prices, fell by 0.5%. The MSCI All-World Index fell by nearly 1%.

Investors were not satisfied with the International Energy Agency’s announcement on Wednesday that it would release 400,000,000 barrels of oil from its reserves. This was the largest move in its history.

Brent crude futures rose as high as 10.4%, to $101.59 per barrel, before trimming gains as concerns remained over whether the release of reserves would be sufficient to cushion the blow from the Middle East shock.

Brent crude was last around $99 per barrel, with U.S. crude futures trading at $93.87. This is 7.6% more than the previous day.

"Even though the reserves may be large, it is not known how quickly they will reach markets. Joel Hancock is an energy analyst with Natixis CIB. He said that a market that's balanced by strategic stock releases will be "far less logistically efficient".

Attacks on Oil Shipments Continue

Iraqi officials reported that two fuel tanks were hit by explosive-laden Iranian boats in Iraqi waters early on Thursday morning. An Iraqi official also told the state media their oil ports had "completely halted operations."

Bloomberg News reported Oman had evacuated its main oil export terminal, Mina Al Fahal, as a precautionary move.

Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at NAB. He said, "The market continues to be very concerned about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and the information we have received over the past 24 hours does not make for a good read."

It reemphasizes that we should be concerned about this, and that the oil prices are likely to go up from here instead of going down.

Iran increased its attacks against merchant ships in Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the fighting, at least 16 ships have been hit in this region. Tehran has warned the world that oil will soon be priced at $200 per barrel.

Inflation Risks

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February, according to data released on Wednesday. This was above the 0.2% rise seen in January. However, the report was not considered particularly relevant, given that inflation has been fueled by the Iran War.

Globally, bond yields rose as the inflation risk outweighed any concerns about safe havens. The yields on 10-year Treasury bills rose by 4.3 basis points on Thursday to 4.206%, after a 7-bps jump overnight.

Fed?funds Futures continued to fall as investors worried that higher inflation would make the Federal Reserve's policy more difficult. The markets are betting that the Fed will only make one rate cut this year.

The markets speculate that the European Central Bank's next rate move could come as soon as June, due to the threat of energy-driven inflation.

Investors on edge sought out the dollar's liquidity, while shunning currencies of countries which are net energy consumers. This includes Japan and most of Europe.

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.153. The dollar was slightly higher at 158.96 Japanese yen. (Reporting from Lawrence Delevingne, Niket Nishant, and Stella Qiu, in Boston; editing by Susan Fenton and Keith Weir, and Mark Potter).

(source: Reuters)