South-East Asia

You wouldn't guess it by the price of aluminium. Two damaged Gulf smelters, and the resulting?logistical constraints at other smelters have already created a 2 million metric ton gap in the global supply chains. After surging to a 4-year high of $3,787.50 per tonne in early June, London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month aluminium now trades around $3,170 a tonne, exactly where it traded before the United States launched its "Operation?Fury", a joint strike with Israel against Iran, on February 28. Where did the war premium end up? Is the market right in being so'relaxed' about?the unprecedented shortage of a metal...

International Energy Agency warns that the full implementation of China’s rare earth export restriction could put $6.5 trillion in downstream production outside of the country at risk. China, the world's largest producer?of?rare Earths, increased export controls in?October of last year, to include additional materials, and introduced new licensing requirements. However, they agreed to postpone implementation for one year. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals that are used in small amounts but essential for products such as cars, aircrafts, electronics and weapons systems. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals outlook report stated that if the controls are fully implemented, an...

Malaysia announced on Wednesday that higher global energy prices have boosted its petroleum revenue enough to cover part of the rising costs for 'fuel subsidies. This has eased pressure on the government's finances. The government said that it may spend as much as 40 billion ringgits ($9.83 billion), far more than the 15 billion ringgits initially allocated?in the budget for 2026, on fuel subsidies in 2019. This is due to higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. * Each $1 change in crude oil prices is estimated to affect federal petroleum revenues by?about 300 million ringgit, not including...

After the U.S. and Iran deal to end the Middle East conflict, spot premiums for crude oil in Asia are back to their pre-war level. However, caution over how soon normal shipping will resume is keeping the oil markets afloat. Prices fell across the board after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that a preliminary deal had been signed. Details have not yet been released, and the U.S. as well as Iran say that a permanent ceasefire is still being negotiated. Dubai's premium for swaps on Middle East crude returned to its pre-war level of $2.06 a barrel on Monday. This...

Thailand announced on Friday that it would join the U.N. arbitral process selected by Cambodia to settle a 'festering maritime border dispute. After Bangkok unilaterally ended a framework agreement for talks on the disputed maritime belt in 2001, Cambodia has launched this week a mandatory conciliation process pursuant to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Both have claimed over 25 years that they own about 26,000 sq km (10,0 miles) of ocean in the Gulf of Thailand. This area is estimated to contain nearly 12 trillion cubic feet of natural gases and large quantities of oil....

Brunei ruler announced major cabinet reshuffle Thursday. He created new key 'portfolios' and appointed two of his sons to ministerial positions, in a possible succession plan for the oil-rich tiny sultanate. This is the first reshuffle since 2022, and Brunei on the island of Borneo faces pressure from a global oil crisis sparked off by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The diamond jubilee of Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah - the longest-reigning monarch in the world who was crowned in 1967 – is also a year away. After undergoing knee surgery in January, the 79-year old, who has multiple roles in government...

Cambodia has been relying on the little-used UN arbitration procedure known as "compulsory reconciliation" to settle a long-running maritime border dispute with Thailand. It is hoping that this will resolve the dispute and allow it to unlock potential oil and natural gas resources worth billions of dollars. What is the CAMBODIA - Thailand dispute about? Since more than 25 years, Cambodia and Thailand both claim about 26,000 square kilometers of?sea? in the Gulf of Thailand. It is estimated that the disputed maritime belt contains nearly 12 trillion cubic foot of natural gas, and large quantities oil worth about $300 billion....

In a 'joint statement' received on Tuesday, business groups in Indonesia asked the government to provide technical guidance to its plan to centralise exports. The Indonesian Employers Association (IAA), along with associations of coal miners and nickel smelters, palm oil producers and miners, supported the new regulations, but expressed the hope that the government would collaborate with the private sector to implement them. They said that the government should "issue transparent technical guidelines" to eliminate negative speculative and maintain confidence on international markets in Indonesia as a global supplier of commodities. On May 20, President Prabowo announced that resource-rich Indonesia...

Summit Therapeutics shares rose up to 7% before bell ringing?after its ivonescimab treatment with China-based Akeso helped advanced lung cancer patients?live 15% longer than BeOne Medicines Tevimbra immunotherapy. Late-stage trial results revealed that in a head to head study conducted in China, patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer squamous who were treated with ivonescimab, chemotherapy and Tevimbra lived on average 27.9 months compared to 23.7 months when they received Tevimbra, chemotherapy and Tevimbra. Tyler Van Buren, TD Cowen's analyst, said: "This is a significant advancement in a situation?where other treatments have never found success." Ivonescimab belongs to a class of...

G.O.I., a Cypriot private equity fund, has agreed to purchase the Sicilian oil refiner ISAB. The Italian group Energy said Wednesday that the Iran War has revealed Europe's dependence on the Gulf to supply jet fuel and refined products. Ludoil is the jet fuel supplier to Rome's Fiumicino airport. The Morattis family of Italy and the Brachetti Perettis family in Azerbaijan sold their oil refineries recently to Vitol, a commodity trader. Ludoil had already begun discussions with G.O.I. When the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, they used ISAB to generate energy. Ludoil was founded in 1954...

Indonesia's Financial Services Authority said that on Wednesday, there was no panic sale of shares following MSCI's removal of?six companies from its Indonesia Global Standard Index. They added that they would continue their efforts to reformate the stock market. After a review of the MSCI Indonesia Index, the index provider announced that Amman Mineral International and Chandra 'Asri'Pacific had been removed from it. Dian Swastatika Sentosa was also removed, as well as Barito Renewables Energy, Petrindo Jaya Kreasi, and Sumber Alfaria. On Wednesday, the Jakarta Composite Index fell by up to 1.92% and reached its lowest level in more than...

Four industry sources said on Monday that Hengli Petrochemical International (the former Singapore trading arm of the?sanctions hit Hengli Petrochemical Refinery in Dalian) plans to cease its operations. Three sources stated that the?operation will likely wind down by late May. Hengli Petrochemical, based in China (Dalian), did not immediately respond to an email?requesting comment. Hengli Petrochemical International was a company that employed 100 people and traded mainly oil and petrochemicals before the parent company came under U.S. sanction, according to two of those interviewed. Sources claim that some staff were told they were going to be?made redundant? while others were...

Two Indian sources said this week that India's state run Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Indonesia's Krakatau Steel are planning to invest up to $350 million into a'stainless-steel slab plant' in Indonesia. Sources said that the plant is expected to become operational in the next 3 to 4 years. SAIL and Krakatau Steel have signed a preliminary joint venture agreement in Indonesia to produce stainless steel plates during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sources said that SAIL will'send a technical team next month to Indonesia to prepare a feasibility study. After this, the two companies will...

Indonesia's Presidential?staff Office has called for a?cooperation among government agencies, law-enforcement officials and the?industry? to resolve a regulatory void that has reportedly delayed exports of nickel and alumina products due to their rare-earth contents. Indonesia is one of the world's largest exporters of minerals, but it produces rare earths only as a minor by-product. No rules have been established yet to govern how much of these elements can be added to shipments of other mineral. Officials stated that exporters faced delays in their shipments on Monday due to the lack of clear regulations. Dudung Abdurachman, the Chief of Staff to...

Some investors are buying back the laggards as big investors start to sell and Indonesia's battered, unloved stock markets is gaining some love. Jakarta's stock market has been Asia's worst performing'major' stock market for this year. It is down by 28%. Investors have been looking at markets with less of a focus on AI. David Chao is the Asia-Pacific Global Market Strategist at Invesco, based in Singapore. He said: "We have been buying Indonesia and taking a profit in South Korea." "Indonesia remains the most overlooked macro-growth story." BARGAIN HUNTERS ARE SEEKING VALUE AS SENTIMENTS CHANGE Although still cautious, the...

The Iran War has caused a supply shock that is reviving the old Western aluminum smelters. Magnitude 7 Metals in the U.S. is reactivating its New Madrid smelter located in Missouri. Over the Atlantic, Norwegian producer Hydro announced the partial restart of the Slovalco joint-venture smelter. The two plants were idled due to low aluminum prices and a spike in energy prices that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Washington and Brussels are both desperate to reduce their reliance on an import of a metal used in a wide range of industries. The return of these zombies smelters will not...

The Indonesian Presidential 'palace' announced on Tuesday that India and Indonesia had?signed an agreement on the BrahMos Cruise Missile System. During his two-day trip to Indonesia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited President Prabowo Sibito. This was his first visit to Southeast Asia since 2023. According to a Jakarta announcement that did not provide any details, BrahMos - an India/Russia joint venture missile company - and Indonesia's Defence Ministry signed a deal for the BrahMos system of missile defense. The?reported on Tuesday earlier that India would supply the BrahMos missile defense system to Indonesia and also?the Astra Air-to-Air missile, citing...

Lynas?Earths 'announced on Tuesday that it had signed a deal with South Korea JS Link for the development of a magnet plant in Malaysia. JS Link, a magnet manufacturer in?South Korea, and the Malaysian factory planned by JS Link will receive rare-earth material from the Australian producer until January 2038. This partnership comes after a magnet manufacturing agreement between the two companies in last year. Under the new?deal, JS Link is going to establish a permanent magnet factory in Kuantan (Malaysia) with 3,000 tonnes of neodymium, iron, and boron (NdFeB). Lynas stated that it will invest a total of?about A$50m...

The Mexican silver miner Sinda raised $213 million in its U.S. initial public offering. Shares of the company fell 10% on their debut at the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks of the San Miguel de Allende, Mexico based company opened at $10.80 each, lower than the $12 offered price. Sinda sold 17,75 million shares within the marketed price range of $11.25 - $13.25 per share. In recent months, a growing number of mining firms have turned to the capital markets to fund their capital-intensive operations and capitalize on the high metal prices. Pricing of the IPO below the middle of...

Lingyi iTech, a Chinese company, priced its Hong Kong IPO at HK$10.18 ($1.06bn), allowing it to raise HK$8.3bn ($1.06bn), which will be used in part to expand its AI capabilities. Apple's supplier is aiming to capitalize on the rising demand for AI computing and advanced equipment. In its prospectus, it stated that approximately 37.6%, or about HK$3,07 billion, of the IPO proceeds would be used to upgrade core manufacturing processes and increase production capacity. The next three years will see a total of?HK$1,71 billion invested in the manufacturing of high-density AI server, humanoid robotic hardware and AI optical communications infrastructure....

Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest palladium producer said that it expects to have a global palladium surplus of 0.3 million (Moz), excluding investments and stock movements, in 2026. The demand for palladium, excluding investments, is expected to reach 9.1 Moz by 2026, and 9.3 in 2027. Meanwhile, the supply will be at 9.4 and 9.5 respectively. Nornickel stated in a review of the market that preliminary estimates indicate investment demand for palladium may reach 0.3 Moz in 2026. This would effectively bring the market into balance. A similar trend is expected in?2027. Nornickel expects that global primary palladium output will...

Four?sources? with knowledge of the situation said that Cargill aims to sell its iron ore and trading business by late July?or early august, as it refocuses its operations on food and agriculture. According to Cargill, the Singapore-based company is a large one, with a trading volume of 60 to 70 millions metric tons of iron ore per year and up to 4 million tons steel. This makes it a target for companies that are looking to expand their physical trading. Sources say that the original deadline for the sale was late May, which is the end of Cargill’s financial year....

Guinea, a country in West Africa, is now the world's largest producer of bauxite - the raw material that ultimately becomes aluminium. It is now trying to use its newfound dominance in order to exert greater control over price and industry structure. Just as Indonesia did in nickel, and the Democratic Republic of Congo in cobalt. Three resource giants struggle to control mining sectors which have?grown too large too fast, flooding global markets and crashing the prices. Indonesia uses mining quotas. The Congo has export quotas. Guinea is considering a combination of the two to stop operators from exporting more...

Singapore is establishing an over-the counter gold clearing system and introducing central bank gold vaulting services. This comes as the city state looks to establish itself as a gold trading hub. Gan Kim Yong, the Deputy Prime Minister, told the Asia-Pacific Precious Metals conference on Monday that the Singapore Exchange will?establish a gold clearing system over-the-counter for Loco Singapore or physical gold in Singapore by the end this year. He said that six banks will be clearing members: DBS, Deutsche Bank ICBC Standard Bank J.P. Morgan OCBC, UOB. Gan stated that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will offer central...