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QUOTES - Asia stock crash deepens, as markets prepare for energy shock
Investors sold their chips on Wednesday as they feared that the Middle East conflict would cause an oil shock, which could fuel inflation and delay interest rate cuts. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 4.2%. Seoul's KOSPI index fell more than 11%, triggering a circuit break. Japan's Nikkei Index and Taiwan's index both dropped more than 4 percent each. Analysts' comments: COMMENTS: CHARU CHANANA CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST SAXO SINGAPORE "Asia’s selloff has become disorderly, because markets are no longer treating it as a one-week headline shock. The current?pricing reflects the fact that this conflict could continue, and spillover risks are increasing rather than decreasing. "The inflation channel is biting more. The market doesn't only reprice geopolitics, but also energy logistics, security premiums, and long-lasting inflation pressure. This is a more difficult backdrop for risk assets compared to a simple growth fear. "Policy offsets are less credible when they're implemented in reality. Talk of escorting vessels or lowering energy costs does not solve the core problem if the transit of the Hormuz is in dispute and energy infrastructure is in danger. "The'sell whatever you can' phase has spread: liquidity requirements are pulling precious metals down, which is less of a clean rotation than it is de-leveraging and margin driven selling across asset categories. KENNETH GOH, DIRECTOR, PRIVATE WEALTH, UOB KAY HIAN SINGAPORE "Uncertainty is driving this." Investors believe there is no endgame and, more importantly, there is no plan visible for an endgame. This is what has markets more uneasy than tariffs. This is a very different situation from the global financial crises, when investors were running for the exits at all costs and holding as much cash as they could. We're now seeing a more deliberate shift in asset allocation towards cash and safe-haven assets. Within that rotation, "some market participants also position in gold and look at commodities as a hedging." TONY SYCAMORE MARKET ANALYST IG SYDNEY "We are seeing portfolios de-risked... I feel that the Middle East is moving in a more uncertain way... It's now looking like a good moment to put money on the sidelines." "At the beginning of the week, there was a sense, I believe, that this was going to be a short conflict. "The pessimistic view, which is resonating stronger now, is that this could last for weeks, months or even years." FRANCIS TAN CHIEF ASIA STRATEGIST INDOSUEZ MANAGEMENT SINGAPORE The market is adjusting now to what if the conflict is going to last a little longer. The beta shock will be greater for those indexes with a high beta. "(Clients) have asked about the impact on China." "People have asked, because China imports oil, how these things will impact, and translate towards the overall growth of the economy." HIROYUKI UENO IS THE CHIEF STRATEGIST OF SUMITOMO MISTI TRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT IN TOKYO. "Today's loss has erased the Nikkei gain since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won the national elections in early February by a wide margin. Investors who purchased Japanese stocks following the election likely sold the shares during the recent selloffs. "The Nikkei will be aiming for a low of 52,000 by the end of January, when Takaichi declared the snap elections. I see 52,000 as the Nikkei's defence line. Once it drops below that level, the index could 'keep falling. CHRISTOPHER FORBES, DIRECTOR OF ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST AT CMC MARKETS The KOSPI's two-day 15% collapse is a textbook example of momentum, and not a structural breakdown ....?when U.S. - Israeli operations virtually closed the Strait of?Hormuz there were no diversified offers to absorb the sales. The order book disappeared. In just two sessions, foreign investors drew in $7 billion. The record hedge fund short book is the biggest catalyst for upside. Goldman Prime brokerage reported that shorts outnumbered longs by two to one in early February. If tensions are eased quickly, then a violent squeeze may follow. Samsung and SK Hynix are healthy businesses. RUPAL AGARWAL ASIA QUANT STRATEGIST, BERNSTEIN SINGAPORE The impact on Asian markets was greater because Asian economies were more vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz closing and because momentum trends in many parts of Asia, such as Korea, were very strong in the lead-up to war. For markets to find a bottom, we need to see signs of de-escalation or a status quo. This could then shift the focus to fundamentals. RADHIKA ROA, SENIOR ECONOMIST,?DBS BANK SINGAPORE The ASEAN-6 countries' net oil trade balance (as a percentage of GDP) is most negative in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, with price pressures being most significant in Thailand and the Philippines. "Thailand and Singapore, although less strategically important, are the top LNG buyers in this region. However, they have a well-balanced supplier mix in Singapore, in particular. "Much the region will likely be watching developments in the Middle East closely with fear." The regional central banks will not act in advance on policy and prefer to stay on hold." Reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore, Tom Westbrook in Tokyo, Roushni Nai in Bengaluru, and Kate Mayberry in London.
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Stocks drop more in fear of oil shock.
Tom Westbrook, Wayne Cole and others look ahead to the European and global markets. South Korea was the hardest hit by the 'flight from risk' in response to a possible prolonged oil shock. The KOSPI was down almost 13% at one time and had lost 8% by?mid-session. Two-day losses are the highest since 2009. Panic hit one of the best trades in the year. Japan was also hit by heavy selling, with the Nikkei down 3.7%. Taiwan stocks fell 3.6%. In a market that had been very crowded, there were few buyers. Thailand was the worst performing emerging market with a 7.7% decline. A large part of Asia imports energy via the Strait of Hormuz, and is hit by higher energy prices due to a stronger dollar. The markets were relieved late on Tuesday in New York when Trump announced that he had directed the?U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will provide financial guarantees and political risk insurance for oil tankers in Gulf and may even use U.S. Navy?escorting shipping. The fact that the US administration did not think about it and had not set up the system?before attacking Iran didn't exactly instill confidence. Analysts also saw that there were many issues ahead. Insurance was available in the Iran/Iraq War of 1987, but it was a limited program that took ages to implement. It was also far from the scope needed to cover the hundreds of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. These tankers are not owned or flagged by the United States. The DFC does not appear to have the resources to cover these risks or the insurance expertise necessary to assess them. This type of cover would be challenged in court as is the case with most things in America. Did anyone ask the Navy first about the U.S. Navy's escorting of shipping? It is a narrow strait that can be difficult to navigate even at the best times. Add in the fact that Iran, a hostile country just a few kilometers north of the strait, makes it even more challenging. The Navy, which is already limited in size, hasn't even gotten close to the area. Cracks are appearing in the private credit sector and a fear of AI disruption is sweeping through the software industry. Blackstone's flagship private credit fund saw a spike in withdrawals in the first quarter. Investors pulled out a total of $1.7 billion. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. - News: Iran war developments - Markets: Oil price moves - U.S. Economic Data: ISM Services Survey and ADP Payrolls
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The Middle East shipping disruptions are blamed for the fuel rationing by Myanmar's junta.
Myanmar's ruling junta announced a new fuel rationing policy for private cars on Wednesday. They blamed disruptions in the global energy chain, caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The National Defence and Security Council of the country (NDSC) announced that the new regulations would be effective on March 7, 2026. They were a reaction to "global 'political situations", and armed conflict in the Middle East which had obstructed the oil shipments. The announcement stated that under a new "even/odd" license scheme, plates with even numbers will only be permitted to drive on even days, and plates with odd numbers on odd dates. Electric motorcycles and vehicles are exempt. The NDSC warned individuals and businesses not to?hoard fuel to resell at inflated prices. They said that violators will be prosecuted. The cost of shipping has risen due to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused a disruption of?tankers headed for Asian ports. Myanmar heavily relies on fuel imported from Singapore and Malaysia. These countries are regional hubs for processing Middle Eastern crude. There are already shortages due to the disruptions. However, secondary supplies can be obtained via Russia and Thailand. Residents in Yangon, Myanmar’s commercial center, are concerned that the rationing scheme will increase the cost of living, and complicate the daily routines for residents who already suffer from power outages. One Yangon resident said, "A system that alternates even and odd days for vehicles based on their license plates is incredibly frustrating to people who live in a city such as Yangon where we rely so heavily on our cars." He added that the skyrocketing price of oil has already made it difficult for the country to meet its demand. This raises questions about the size of its strategic reserves. According to a resident, fuel supplies ran out in Myawaddy border town as early as the evening of March 3. Local stations were forced to temporarily close and residents had to queue at gas stations in Thailand’s Mae Sot. Since yesterday, a lot of people have crossed over to the Mae Sot area to fill their tanks. "I went to stand in the line myself and I saw a huge?number? of vehicles queueing up at a?Thai gasoline station," said the resident. Since 2021, Myanmar has been in turmoil. The military overthrew the government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and sparked a wave anti-junta demonstrations which have evolved into a civil war across the country. (Reporting and Editing by David Stanway).
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Indian shares continue to fall as the oil price surge fuels a widening Mideast conflict
The rupee fell to a new record low on Wednesday as the escalating U.S. - Israel clashes against Iran drove oil prices?to an all-time high. This dragged down global markets on fears of a long-term Middle East conflict. As of 10:10 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 dropped?2.25% and reached a low of 24,305.4. The BSE Sensex fell 2.24%. It now stands at 78.443.2. The domestic markets were closed for a holiday in the country on Tuesday. Over the last two sessions, benchmarks lost an average of 2.5%. Wall Street also closed lower over night on fears that a larger Mideast conflict could cause an energy shock, which would?raise inflation and delay rate cuts. Brent crude futures were up 1.4% at $82.57 per barrel as of 0408 GMT after Tuesday's closing price was the highest since January 2025. They have gained almost 17% in just four sessions. India, a large oil importer, is affected by the higher prices of crude and trade disruptions. Macquarie analysts led by Suresh Ganahpathy said that any spike in oil prices for India would have implications on current account deficits, fiscal deficits and inflation, as well as putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee. U.S. and Israeli forces have struck Iran a fourth time in a row, while Iranian missiles and drones targeted Gulf oil refineries as well as U.S. embassies located in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. On Wednesday, 15 out of 16 major sectors in the United States posted losses. Small- and midcaps each lost 2.1%. The Nifty India Volatility Index jumped to 20,98, its highest since May 2025. This indicates a surge in investor anxiety. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance Industries, a conglomerate that combines oil and telecom, fell by 2.5% and 1.1%, respectively. Devarsh Vakhil, HDFC Securities' head of prime research, said: "Markets opened lower due to the unwinding of leveraged positions in light if the geopolitical events that have occurred over the last two days." Larsen and Toubro shares, which have a significant exposure to the Middle East, fell?7.2% after falling 5% the previous session. Oil marketing companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPC) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) each lost around 4%. Paint makers such as Asian Paints, Kansai, and Nerolac, lost 2.5% on the back of a rise in crude prices. Tyre manufacturers such as MRF JK Tyre, and Ceat have lost between 1.5%-3.3%. Interglobe Aviation, the airline operator, saw its revenue drop by 4.8% after the conflict forced some domestic carriers to cancel flights from the Middle East and parts of Europe. "If these cancellations continue for a period of?sevendays, we estimate that they will erase approximately 320 million rupees from Indigo's profits before taxes, which is equal to about 6% in the fourth-quarter profit before taxes," HSBC analyst Parash Jain said.
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PMI data shows that growth in the UAE's non-oil private sectors has picked up in February.
According to a'monthly survey' completed just days before the United States, the non-oil sector of the United Arab Emirates expanded at the fastest rate for the past 12 months during?February. This was due to increased output and new order, which were largely responsible. Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran. The seasonally-adjusted UAE Purchasing Managers' Index, released on Wednesday, rose from 54.9 to 55.0, indicating a strong expansion in the sectors of construction,'real estate', logistics and technology. The pace of growth slowed from the near-two-year high reached in January. The subindex for new orders fell from 60.0 in January to 59.5 in the month of February. David Owen, senior analyst at 'S&P Global Market Intelligence', stated that the data so far 'pointed towards an encouraging picture for the domestic economic in the first quarter. Dubai is the commercial and tourism center of the Gulf, as well as a leader in efforts to diversify the Gulf's economy away from hydrocarbons. The strikes against Iran, which began on?Saturday, have caused the largest business disruptions in the region, since the COVID-19 Pandemic. Airports are closed and port operations are halted. Tourism and logistics are expected to be affected by the repercussions. JPMorgan cut its non-oil 2026 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage point for the Gulf Region and by 0.4 for the UAE on Monday, warning of larger revisions to come. The February survey revealed that input costs eased and inflation cooled from January's 18-month high. Employment rose modestly as firms increased their workforce to handle rising workloads. The headline PMI in Dubai fell to 54.6 from 55.9 last month, which indicates a softening of the operating conditions. (Reporting and Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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Oil prices rise by 1% after Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supplies
?Oil Prices rose 1% on Tuesday as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran disrupted Middle -East supplies. However, the pace of gains slowed from previous sessions after President Donald 'Trump' raised the possibility of U.S. Navy escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil rose $1.17 or 1.4% to $82.57 per barrel at 0408 GMT after Tuesday's closing price was its highest since Jan 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude rose 72 cents or 1% to $75.28 after reaching its highest level since June. Both have risen by 5% or more over the last two sessions. Phillip Nova - Senior market analyst Priyanka Sahdeva stated that "right now, geopolitics is clearly outweighing the usual price drivers such as inventory data, U.S. Economic numbers, or OPEC comment." She added that "in the near-term, the key indicators to watch are physical data exports from the Gulf, confirmed incidents of?tanker accidents, U.S. Naval movement, and Iran’s tone." Israeli and U.S. troops struck targets in Iran on Tuesday. This prompted Iranian strikes against the energy infrastructure of a region that accounts for less than a third global oil production. Iraq, which is the second largest crude producer within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has reduced its output by almost 1.5 million barrels per day. This is about half of what it was producing before due to storage limitations and the absence of an export route. Officials said that if exports don't resume, the country could be forced to close its 3 million barrels per day of production within days. Iran has also targeted oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz. Through this strait, about a fifth of world?oil and natural gas is transported. The Strait is effectively closed to traffic. Trump said the U.S. Navy would be able to escort oil tankers across the Strait of Hormuz, if needed. He also added that he had instructed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to provide financial guarantees and political risk insurance for maritime trade within the Gulf. The promise of such assurances comes at a time when insurers are cancelling their war risk coverage of vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. It's good news, but it won't be achieved overnight. This effort 'will take time,' ING analysts wrote in a recent note. Companies and countries have started looking for alternative routes and energy supplies. India and Indonesia have said that they are 'looking for alternative energy sources, while some Chinese refineries are closing or accelerating maintenance plans. According to sources citing the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks in?the United States rose by 5.6 millions barrels last weekend, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 2.3 million barrels. The U.S. Government is expected to release official figures later Wednesday. Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, Trixe Y. Yap and Himani Sarkar.
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As markets prepare for an energy shock, the stock market in Asia is stricken by a slump that begins with Seoul.
Investors dumped crowded positions in the chip industry on Wednesday due to fears that a Mideast war would cause an oil shock, which could increase inflation and delay interest rate cuts. The KOSPI fell more than 11% in two days, the most since 2009. Meanwhile, the won currency plunged to its lowest level in 17 years. Japan's Nikkei and Taiwan's stocks fell 3.6% each as investors fled from what had been the most popular bet of recent months, semiconductor makers. S&P futures fell 0.6%, and European futures, after an initial rise, dropped to just below flat. Christopher Forbes, CMC Markets' head of Asia & Middle East said: "There are just too many negatives for a bid." Benchmark Brent crude futures are on the rise, up more than 13% in the last week to $82.08 per barrel. Prices have fallen since U.S. president Donald Trump announced an insurance guarantee for Gulf shipping and said that the Navy may accompany oil tankers across the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces and Israeli forces have been pounding Iran for four straight days. Iranian drones and missiles also struck U.S. embassies located in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. It does seem that the conflict will last a bit longer than people initially thought. There's also been an escalation because the war has now expanded to include U.S. allies," said Damien Boey. "Oil infrastructure appears to be under attack... so? people are thinking about how long all that will last." Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all import energy and their equity markets have gained a lot recently. They are now under extra pressure to sell as investors liquidate their winning positions and tighten up. The Aussie dollar, which has been on an upward trend, hit a speedbump and fell below 70 cents yesterday. S&P 500 index closed 0.8% lower on Wall Street due to fears over a possible prolonged rise in oil prices. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana, said: "The interplay between inflation and interest rates is the biggest issue (investors are) trying to weigh." Are energy prices going to stay?elevated longer than people thought yesterday and does this pass through? Investors expect that Europe will be hard hit by rising energy costs. Gas prices in Europe have increased by 65% over the past two days. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Tom Westbrook)
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Aluminum prices rise on fears of supply as Middle East conflict escalates
Aluminum prices rose on Wednesday, as concerns about supply grew after Norsk Hydro of Norway announced a 'controlled shutdown' in its joint venture with Qatar due to the?ongoing conflict between Israel, Iran and the U.S. Around?8% global aluminum capacity is produced in the Middle East. As the conflict spreads to neighbouring countries and Iran threatens to target ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, supply concerns are becoming more real. As of 0300 GMT, the most active aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen by 2.04% to 24,730 Yuan ($3,576.13) per metric ton. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 1.18%, to $3289.50 per ton. Norsk hydro announced the Qatalum shut down on Tuesday, after its gas provider warned of a possible supply stop. The company announced that it had sent a notice of force majeure to its customers. EwaManthey, a commodities strategist at ING, said that the disruption caused by conflict "hits a tight market" in a recent note. Prior to the conflict, we had a deficit of about 600kt in 2026. China's cap on capacity, trade disruptions, and the impending shutdown of Mozal already restricted supply," Manthey said. He added that the drop in LME inventory, the elevated premiums, and the tightening of the spread between the LME cash contract, and benchmark three-month Even before the war, there was a shortage of supplies. Aluminium's gains were capped by a stronger dollar. The most active copper contract in 'Shanghai' fell 0.57%, to 101,830 Yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark copper rose 0.64%, to $13,068 per ton. Citi analysts warned that continued disruptions would continue to put pressure on the macroeconomic background, and persistent drone threats against shipping routes and energy infrastructure added to the market stress. Prices have been pushed down by fading expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and weaker cyclical growth projections. On the SHFE, elsewhere, zinc fell 0.51%, while lead dropped 0.67%. Tin plunged by 5.63%, and nickel edged up 0.08%. Other LME metals include zinc, which rose by?0.34%. Lead, which increased by 0.26%. Nickel, up 1.05 %. Tin, up 4.19%. Tuesday, March 4, DATA/EVENTS 850 France HCOB Services Composite PMI 02/0855 Germany HCOB Composite PMI 02/0855 Germany HCOB Composite final PMI 02/0855 EU HCOB Services Composite PMI 02/0855 UK S&P GLOBAL: COMPOSITE OUTPUT - February 0930 UK Reserve Assets total February 1000 EU Unemployment rate January 1445 US S&P global comp PMI final February 1445 US S&P global comp,
QUOTES - Asia stock crash deepens, as markets prepare for energy shock
Investors sold off their chipmaker positions on Wednesday due to fears that the Middle East war will cause an oil shock, which would increase inflation and delay interest rate cuts.
The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 4.2%. Seoul's steep falls triggered a circuit breaker as the KOSPI fell more than 11%. The two-day loss was 17%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 4.3%, while Taiwan's benchmark fell 3.6%.
COMMENTS:
TARECK HORCHANI is the head of prime brokerage at Maybank Securities in Singapore.
We are seeing foreign outflows driving the move, especially in large-cap tech stocks that have led the rally year-to date. Korea was one of the world's strongest markets, with a peak of nearly 50%, thanks to the AI and memory cycles. Positioning was therefore crowded. This looks more like an unwinding of positions and a risk reduction than a fundamental decline in earnings. Global funds tend to quickly de-risk the index heavyweights when oil prices spike and FX volatility increases, especially in oil-importing countries like Korea and Japan. This is where the selling has concentrated: Samsung SK Hynix, and other large-cap stocks.
"There's also a macro-overlay." Oil prices are rising, raising concerns about inflation. This could delay Fed easing. High-beta technology and cyclical stocks will be hit disproportionately. Yes, there is some profit-taking going on, but this is more of a global risk off move than an investor permanently moving into cash. "Importantly domestic institutional accounts are selectively adding, and we're seeing rotation towards defensives and defense-related names, rather than indiscriminately selling across all sectors."
CHRISTOPHER FORBES, HEAD, ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EST, CMC MARS:
The Kospi's 15% collapse in two days is a textbook example of momentum unwinding, not a structural break ..... When U.S. and Israeli operations virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz there were no diversified offers to absorb the selling. The order book disappeared. In two sessions, foreign investors pulled in over US$7 Billion.
The record short book of hedge funds is the biggest catalyst for an upside. According to Goldman's Prime Brokerage, shorts outnumbered longs by two-to one in early February. If tensions are eased quickly, then a violent squeeze may follow. Samsung and SK Hynix are healthy businesses."
RUPAL AGARWAL is the Asia Quant Strategist at BERNSTEIN.
The impact on Asian markets was greater because Asian economies were more vulnerable to the Strait of Hormuz closing and because momentum trends in Asia, such as Korea, were extremely sharp during the lead-up to war.
For markets to find a bottom, we will need to see signs of de-escalation or status quo on the front lines. This could then shift the focus to fundamentals. It's hard to predict geopolitical events, but the extreme positioning on the way up would make it take some time before things normalized.
RADHIKA RAO SENIOR ECONOMIST DBS BANK SINGAPORE: Amongst ASEAN-6 nations, the net oil balance is most negative in Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam (as % GDP), and the price pressures are most material in Thailand and Philippines. Thailand and Singapore, despite being less strategically important, are the top LNG consumers in the region. However, they have a diverse mix of suppliers, particularly in Singapore. "Much the region is likely to be watching developments in the Middle East closely. THB, MYR and SGD have all fallen more than 1% in the past week, and regional currencies could underperform as long as the U.S. Dollar remains strong. The regional central banks will not act on their policy preemptively, but rather prefer to remain on hold while keeping a close eye on the domestic currency and bond yields."
SHINGO IDE IS THE CHIEF EQUITY STRATEGIST AT NLI RESEARCH INSITUTE, TOKYO
The market has been inflated by narratives such as Takaichi's policies and expectations of double-digit profits next fiscal year. Both of these pillars, however, are "wobbling". It's not the time to talk about investing based on 'Takaichi Policies'. You will run out of cash if you focus on measures to combat higher oil prices and crude prices.
"And corporate profits, too. If high oil prices continue, profits will be squeezed. The premises on which we have been relying no longer hold. In this light, I would not call the 54,000 yen "oversold".
"I don?t think it just keeps falling forever. It will find a level that it stabilizes at--but we can't tell you if this is 54,000, 52,00, 50,000 or some other level on Korea's KOSPI.
Investors in a wide range of industries were looking for an opportunity to profit. There was no clear trigger to a major downturn and this backdrop continued. "Suddenly, the profit-taking has exploded." Reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore, Tom Westbrook in Tokyo, Roushni Nai in Bengaluru, and Kate Mayberry in Bengaluru.
(source: Reuters)