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Never mind the oil, but feel the earnings with MORNING BID EUROPE
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors in Asia are once again made to feel foolish by the U.S., who come in and buy stock like drunken sailors. Surging oil prices don't matter when tech earnings look so bright. Caterpillar, a company from the old economy, has also embraced AI. The demand for Caterpillar's power equipment in data centers helped it to surpass Street forecasts by almost 10% and increase its share price. Apple's results were also better than expected, but not as much as they have been in the past. Analysts called it a solid result. It's possible that this is why Apple shares have only risen 1.9% after hours. Momentum is a powerful force on the markets. Why is it rising? People are buying it. Why are people buying it? It's rising. Goldman Sachs analysts say that this is going beyond momentum, and into mania. The recent Wall Street rally is one of the narrowest in history, and earnings upgrades are also very narrow, driven almost exclusively by semiconductors, information technology, and communications. Investors must ignore the effects of the?worst shock to the oil markets?ever recorded. Brent is down from its peak of $126.41, but this is mainly due to the fact that June's contract was rolled into July. It's now up around 1% at $111.00. There is still no sign of the Strait of Hormuz being opened anytime soon. Iran and the U.S. are content to exchange verbal threats. Prices will have to increase as supplies of fuels such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel, bunker oil, fertilisers, etc., become ever more scarce. Four major central banks warned this week of the inflation risks that lie ahead. Both the ECB and BoE said that rates could be raised as soon as June. The FOMC, however, is not in a mood to cut rates no matter what Kevin Warsh and his boss might want. High oil prices make it difficult for Japan to achieve its latest currency intervention because the country's trade surplus is about to explode in the coming months. The dollar has risen to above 157.00, as the market tests Tokyo's resolve. To defend 160.00, it will likely?require dumping more dollars. What will Trump and the U.S. Treasury think? The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Huw Pill, Bank of England's Chief Economist, gives a speech on the central banks latest interest rate decision ISM Manufacturing Survey for April
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Oil prices rise to $1 without any sign of the Iran conflict ending
Oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve Iran conflict have hit a deadlock, with Tehran blocking the 'Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. Navy is blocking 'exports of Iranian crude. Brent crude futures rose $1.19 or 1.08% to $111.59 per barrel at 0149 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 39 cents or 0.37% to $105.46. Brent's June contract which expired on Friday, hit $126.41 per barrel, its highest price since March 2022. Since the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran at the end of February, oil prices have been rising. This was due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of around one-fifth of world?oil shipments and liquefied natural gas shipments. Brent oil prices rose by 50% in just March. According to the IRNA news agency, Esmaeil baghaei, spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said that it is not reasonable to expect immediate results from U.S. negotiations. He was quoted as saying: "Expecting a quick result, no matter who the mediator is, is not realistic." A senior official from Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned earlier in the day of "long and painful" strikes on?U.S. If Washington re-attacked Iran, oil prices would rise to intraday highs before falling. A U.S. official said that Donald Trump would receive a briefing Thursday about plans for a series of new military strikes against Iran in order to force it to negotiate a peaceful end to the war. Helen Clark (Reporting; editing by Chris Reese, Tom Hogue and Helen Clark)
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Oil off peak, tech resilience gives Asia shares relief
As oil prices dropped and investors shifted to tech stocks due to positive earnings, the Asian stock markets recovered on Friday. Japan also stabilized its currency with the first yen buying intervention in over two years. Apple's 'upbeat sales outlook' and beating of forecasts 'amplified the cheer, but it warned about chip supply constraints. In extended trading, its shares rose 2.7%. This was on top of gains of 10% for both Caterpillar (which beat expectations) and Alphabet (which also exceeded expectations). S&P 500 rose more than 10% in April on the back of expectations for rising profits, while Nasdaq soared 15% for its best performance since 2021. S&P futures rose 0.2% Friday, while Nasdaq's futures firmed 0.1%. Asia also had a great month in April, with the Nikkei 225 index of Japan up 16 percent, Taiwan's Nikkei 225 index up 23 percent, and South Korea's almost 31 percent. The Nikkei gained 0.4%, while Australian shares added 0.7%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%. Asia is still very vulnerable to rising energy prices. It imports most of its gas and oil, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a major obstacle for oil flow. Iran announced on Thursday that it would respond to any retaliation by the United States with "long, painful strikes". If Washington re-initiated attacks and reaffirmed its claim over the Strait, Iran would take "long and painful strikes" on them. Brent crude rose 1.2% to $111.70 per barrel. However, this was still well below the four-year high of $126.41 on Thursday. U.S. crude oil rose by 0.5% to $105.64 per barrel. JAPAN DRAWS LINE FOR YEN The currency markets were also a buzz after reports that Japanese authorities intervened to buy dollars for yen on Thursday, initially sending the greenback tumbling five whole yen and bringing it to a 2-month low at 155.50. But buyers returned on Friday and lifted the dollar up to 157.29, a sign that Tokyo will have to do more to reach the 160.00 yen mark. Tim Baker, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank and expert on the history of intervention, said that the cost would likely be in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. He said, "We are not convinced USD/JPY is going to keep falling or stay at this level for very long." The cross is high in relation to rates but low when compared to a simple model which includes rates, oil, and equities. The rise in crude oil prices will cause the trade deficit to increase dramatically. The surge in dollar sales lifted the euro indirectly to $1.1729, and away from a three-week low of $1.1655. The pound rose to a high of $1.3612, a 10 week high. Both currencies were supported with hawkish comments from their respective central banks. The Bank of England warned that the fallout could be "forceful" if the energy prices continue to rise, and one member of the board voted in favor of an immediate rate hike. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that they were "debating" whether or not to raise rates. She noted that the data collected over the next six-week period would determine the decision. Analysts at Citi said in a report that "the messages conveyed during the press conference give us a distinct impression that governors are unanimous that they will raise policy rates at their next meeting, on June 11,". We?find nothing to change our expectation of a?back-to back rate increase in June and July." This comes after a shift in hawkishness from the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, which led to markets giving up any hope of a rate reduction this year. After the pivot, U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are up 8 basis points for the week to 4.390%. However, they have fallen from a high of 4.436%. Gold was also flat on the commodity markets at $4,623 per ounce. It has been in a trading range that is tight for over a month. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam; Reporting by Wayne Cole)
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Russell: The UAE dumping OPEC will not have the same effect on crude oil as expected.
It is generally believed that the United Arab Emirates' decision to withdraw from OPEC will lessen the clout and influence of the producer group, as well as?start a race for increased production which could lead to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The U.S.-Israeli war on?Iran, however, has radically changed the global crude market to the point that predicting what would otherwise appear the most obvious result is probably flawed thinking. The UAE may end up supplying more crude oil if the pre-war shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz resumes. These two outcomes may not be the only ones, nor as certain as they seem. First, let's ask how much damage OPEC has suffered. It is a big blow to lose the fourth largest producer. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, are two exporters that can ramp up production quickly. The 65-year old producer group has survived departures in the past and managed to remain relevant and influence the global crude oil supply and price. Angola left in 2024, Qatar 2020, Ecuador 2020 for the second, Indonesia 2016 and Gabon 1995. Gabon rejoined later. One could argue that none of these nations were as important as the?UAE. However, Angola and Qatar still count as major losers. It would take a brave analyst to say that Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ members Russia are weakened by the loss of a Saudi Arabian member who?produced around 12% of OPEC output. It will be interesting to see how Saudi Arabia and Russia react and if they decide to engage in a price and volume war. This move is not intended to force the UAE into maintaining production discipline. This move would be more aimed at driving high-cost producers off the market. The primary target is U.S. shale production. The irony of the situation is that while U.S. president Donald Trump welcomed the UAE's decision to leave OPEC it is the U.S. companies who will be the ones suffering if the move results in a price and volume war. The Republican Party and Trump may benefit politically from lower retail fuel prices, but this outcome shows that Trump is not as friendly to his country's energy sector as he claims. The impact may depend on the response to a re-opened strait The main question about the UAE's move is whether it will lead to a price and volume war. Before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, which took place on February 28, the UAE shipped about 3.3 millions barrels of oil per day. This effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts estimate that the UAE's production could rise quickly to 4.5 million?bpd, and reach 5.0 million bpd over the medium-term. This assumes, of course, that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully and sustainably opened at some point. However, this is not certain given the current conflict and the apparent lack of progress among the warring parties. Even if the Strait returns to its pre-war flow, will the additional barrels supplied by the UAE be enough to cause a significant correction in the price? It is important to know what the 'importers' are doing, as well as what their tactics are. Importers are attempting to replenish their depleted inventory as quickly as possible in anticipation of a new Middle East conflict. Or, do they adopt a more measured approach, hoping for a moderated price? China is the world's largest crude importer. It has historically built up stockpiles during low-price periods and cut imports when they reach levels that its refiners deem too high. China's massive stockpile of oil, estimated at 1.2 billion barrels, have not been used. The U.S. will likely see its crude oil exports fall once the Strait of Hormuz has been fully opened, but it is not certain how quickly inventories will be rebuilt. The question is also whether production in the Middle East can return to its pre-war level, considering that many fields and facilities have been damaged by drones or missiles. The Iran conflict has created a large number of variables that make it difficult to predict how the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC would affect the group or the overall supply-demand balance. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Brazil's Petrobras reduces US oil exports to zero during Q1, China takes the lead as the top destination
The conflict in Iran has shifted oil flows around the globe, and China is now the final destination of 62% (or more) of Petrobras' crude oil exported abroad. Petrobras exports about 1,12 million barrels of oil per day and its derivatives, an increase of 47% compared to a year earlier. China, which received 33% of Petrobras' oil exports in the first quarter of 2025, bought record quantities of Brazilian crude after the Strait of Hormuz was closed. India is now the second-largest destination for Brazilian oil. It received around 15% of total sales, up from 14% one year ago. Petrobras stated in a filing that India, the second largest importer of oil by sea, had cemented its position as a strategic market. Exports to China, India and other Asian countries have dropped from 28% to just 8% in the first quarter of this year. Exports to Europe fell from 19% to just 8% in the same time period, while exports to the U.S. dropped from 3% to zero from the previous year. Petrobras said that the company's oil production in Brazil rose by around 16 percent in the first quarter of the year to 2,58 million barrels per day. Total sales in January-March were up 12% on an annual basis, totaling 3,22 million barrels per day.
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The US-Iran conflict is heading towards a pivotal deadline with no end in sight
The U.S. president Donald Trump has until Friday to either end the Iran War or "make the case" to Congress to extend it. But the deadline is unlikely to change the course of the conflict, which has devolved into a "standoff" over shipping routes. It is highly unlikely that the war will be ended. Analysts and congressional aides expect Trump to inform Congress of his plans to extend the deadline by 30 days or ignore it altogether. His administration will argue that the current ceasefire agreement with Tehran marks the end of the conflict. War powers are deeply partisan. Like many policies in an acrimonious divided Congress, opposition Democrats have called for Congress to assert its constitutional right of declaring war, while Republicans accuse Democrats of using the War Powers Act to weaken Trump. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, Democrats have repeatedly tried to pass resolutions that would force Trump to withdraw U.S. troops or get congressional approval. Trump's Republicans in the Senate, and House of Representatives who have slim majorities, have almost unanimously voted against them. Republicans blocked the sixth attempt in the Senate Thursday, just a day before the deadline for war powers. Senator Susan Collins, of Maine, had voted against the previous resolutions. She was joined by Senator Rand Paul, of Kentucky, who had backed each of the resolutions. According to the 1973 War Powers Resolution the president is only allowed to wage military action for 60 days, before ending the operation. He can either seek authorization from Congress or request a 30-day extension if "unavoidable" military necessity for the safety of the United States Armed Forces. The Iran conflict started on February 28 when Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran. Trump officially notified Congress 48 hours after the start of the conflict, which began the 60-day clock ending May 1. FIRE FRAIL CEASEFIRE A U.S. official said that Trump would be briefed on Thursday about plans to launch 'fresh military strikes against Iran in order to force it to negotiate a peaceful end to the conflict. Trump, if fighting continues, can tell lawmakers that he's started a 60-day countdown. This is something presidents from both parties have done many times since Congress passed the "War Powers Law" over Richard Nixon's then veto in response to Vietnam War. This conflict was also not authorized by Congress. A ceasefire announced by Trump on April 7 may have also led the administration to argue that May 1, 2019 is not the deadline. Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, told Senators on Thursday that he believed the 60-day countdown stopped when a ceasefire was declared. Democrats denied this, claiming that there is no such provision in war powers legislation. Iran warned on Thursday, if Washington continued its attacks on Iranian positions, it would respond by launching "long and painful" strikes on U.S. positions. This could complicate Washington's hopes of a coalition of international countries to open the Strait of Hormuz. Six months before the November elections, which will determine who controls Congress in next year's Congress, polls show that Americans are unpopular with the Iran War. Trump's approval rating fell to its lowest level in his current term as Americans grew resentful of the rising cost of living, and blamed it on the war. Trump is still in strong control of his Republican party, and very few Republicans are opposed to his policies. Republicans also strongly support Israel which is also attacking Iran and welcome the weakening Iran as a bitter enemy of the United States. Christopher Preble said, "It is partisanship plain and simply," a senior fellow with the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. "Republicans will not defy President Obama, that's it." 'ACTIVE ?CONVERSATIONS' The White House is yet to announce its plans or whether it will seek congressional authorization for the Iran campaign. The Hill and the administration are in active discussions on this issue. Members of Congress that try to score points by usurping Commander-in Chief's authority will only undermine the United States Military abroad, which is something no elected official would want to do," said a White House representative on condition of anonymity. Only Congress and not the President can declare war in the U.S. Constitution. However, this restriction does not apply to short-term operations, or countering an immediate threat. Some Republicans who voted against the war powers resolutions may change their minds after May 1. John Curtis, Republican Senator from Utah, wrote an article in which he said he supported Trump’s actions but that he would not support continued military action after the deadline without Congress’ approval. Some said they would wait and see. John Thune, South Dakota Senator and Senate Republican Majority Leader, said that it would be "ideal" for Washington and Tehran to reach a peaceful agreement. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate leader from New York, has sponsored resolutions to end war. "Republicans are aware that Trump's handling this war was a disaster. "They see how much American people are suffering right now," he stated in a Senate address, referring the sharp rises in gasoline prices and other costs. How many War Powers Resolutions must Democrats introduce before Senate Republicans act? Schumer asked. (Reporting and additional reporting by Steve Holland, Alistair Bell and Don Durfee; editing by Don Durfee)
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Petrobras, Brazil's largest oil company, gains a stronger position in the Braskem restructuring
According to four sources 'close to the matter,' Brazil's state run?oil firm Petrobras will have a stronger voice in the operations of Braskem following a management revamp?by its controlling shareholder. Braskem shareholders elected a new Board of Directors on Wednesday, which included Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard in the role of chair. The board also includes seats for Braskem's director of industrial process and chief financial officer. Helcio Brandao, Braskem's CFO and other executives will be nominated by IG4 Capital. The firm acquired a controlling interest in the engineering group Novonor. Six anonymous sources confirmed that Petrobras will name four Braskem directors in the commercial and operational areas. Sources say that Petrobras sees an opportunity to unlock efficiencies, as it is a major raw material supplier to Braskem. One of those familiar with Petrobras' thinking said that the plastics manufacturer, which is heavily indebted, has a long way to go before it can recover. Petrobras is still optimistic about Braskem's future, despite the fact that its 47% voting share has been largely ignored by the company at board and management levels for years. IG4, who?acquired a 50% voting stake in Petrobras through a deal that included creditors such as the state?development?bank BNDES?,?signed a new shareholders agreement with Petrobras this month granting both parties equal board representation. The deal is the result of years of uncertainty for Braskem as Novonor (formerly Odebrecht) struggled with debts that exploded in a corruption scandal about a decade back. According to Gimme Credit, the new shareholder agreement will not solve Braskem's problems with its balance sheet. The company's gross credit debt was $9.4 billion in December 2025. Reporting by Rodrigo Viga Gaier, Luciana Magnhaes and Brad Haynes; editing by Chris Reese and Brad Haynes
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Venezuela's Rodriguez claims that the minimum monthly income will increase to $240
Acting president Delcy Rod said that the monthly minimum income in Venezuela would be increased to $240 and pensions to $70. This was announced amid protests from'some employees who demanded higher salaries to combat triple-digit inflation. The monthly minimum wage is only a few dollars in dollar terms. However, workers get bonuses that can bring their incomes to as much as $190 a month. "I think they're right when I see protests by workers." We want higher wages for workers. We want wages to be fully restored to what they were meant to represent. Certainly. This is the first step to being able guarantee the purchasing powers of workers throughout the country, Rodriguez said during a march to end U.S. Sanctions. She has stated that this will increase foreign investment and boost the economic. Rodriguez didn't say how much the new $240 will come from a salary minimum and?how much it will be from bonuses. "I would also like to announce that our grandparents and grandmothers -- those who were hit the hardest -- will be receiving a pension of $70. This represents a 40% rise. It's not enough. "It is not enough," Rodriguez added, adding that additional measures for the elderly will be investigated. The last time the base salary or pay scale of public sector employees was increased was March 2022. According to Caracas-based economist firms, the depreciation in the bolivar currency increased the cost of bonuses from $250 million to $400 million between December and April. Following the capture of Nicolas Maduro and his wife by U.S. troops in January, some supporters of the ruling?party in several?states claimed that certain?bonuses weren't being paid. This helped fuel discontent, leading to even defections of the socialist party. According to data from the central bank, annual inflation was 649% in march. Since Maduro was captured, protests in education, healthcare, and other?public services sectors have increased, as oil deals from the United States brought hundreds of millions to government coffers. The police and the crowds at the government-led protest in Caracas prevented a planned union march to demand better wages from taking place in Caracas on Thursday. According to government statistics, the public sector employs over 3 million people and its pensioners are around 5 millions.
Oil prices are off peak, but tech resilience is a bright spot for Asian shares
Asian shares rose on Friday, as investors reacted to the relief that oil prices had dropped and positive company earnings attracted them into tech stocks. Japan's first yen buying intervention in two-years also helped stabilize the currency.
Apple boosted the mood by exceeding?forecasts, and announcing a positive outlook for sales. However, it warned of chip supply shortages. In extended trading, its shares rose 2.7%. This was on top of gains of 10% for both Caterpillar (which beat expectations) and Alphabet (which also exceeded expectations).
S&P 500 rose more than 10% in April on the back of expectations for rising profits, while Nasdaq soared 15% for its best performance since 2021. S&P futures rose 0.2% Friday, while Nasdaq's futures firmed 0.1%.
Asia also had a great month in April, with the Nikkei 225 index of Japan up 16 percent, Taiwan's Nikkei 225 index up 23 percent, and South Korea almost 31 percent.
The Nikkei gained 0.6%, while Australian shares added 0.9%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.3%.
Asia remains acutely vulnerable to higher energy prices. It imports most of its oil, gas and other fuels, and oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupted.
Iran warned on Thursday that it would respond to any new attacks by Washington and reaffirm its claim over the Strait with "long, painful strikes".
Brent crude rose 0.6% to $111.70 per barrel. However, this was still well below the four-year high of $126.41 set on Thursday. U.S. crude oil rose by 0.1% to $105.10 per barrel.
JAPAN DRAWS LINE FOR YEN
The currency markets were also enlivened after reports that Japanese authorities intervened to sell dollars in exchange for?yen on Thursday. This initially sent the greenback tumbling five?yen and to a 2-month low at 155.50.
But buyers returned on Friday and lifted the dollar up to 157.29, a sign Tokyo might still need to do more to reach the 160.00 yen mark.
Tim Baker, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank and expert on the history of intervention, said that the cost would likely be in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.
He said, "We are not convinced USD/JPY is going to keep falling or stay at this level for very long." The cross is high in relation to rates but low in comparison to a simple model which includes rates, oil, and equities.
The rise in crude oil prices will cause the trade deficit to increase dramatically.
The surge in dollar sales lifted the euro indirectly to $1.1726, and away from its trough for three weeks of $1.1655. The pound reached a 10-week-high of $1.3591.
Both currencies were supported with hawkish comments from their respective central banks.
One board member voted to increase rates immediately after the Bank of England warned that the fallout could be "forceful" if energy costs continue to rise.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that they are debating whether to raise rates. She noted that the data collected over the next six-week period will decide the issue.
Analysts at Citi said in a report that "the messages conveyed at the press conference give us a distinct impression that governors are unanimous that they will raise policy rates at their next meeting, on June 11,".
"We see no reason to change our expectations of a back-to-back increase in rates?in July and June."
This comes after the Federal Reserve made a shift to a more hawkish stance on Wednesday, which led markets to give up any hope of a rate reduction in this country for this year.
After the pivot, U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are up 8 basis points for the week to 4.390%. However, they have fallen from a high of 4.436%.
Gold was also flat on the commodity markets at $4,612 per ounce. It has been in a trading range that is tight for over a month. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes and Wayne Cole)
(source: Reuters)