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INSTANT VIEW - Indonesia will set up a state-owned firm to manage sales of its key resource exports
On Wednesday, Prabowo Subito, the president of Indonesia, told the parliament that Indonesia would set up a firm to handle exports of natural resource, including palm oil and coal. The President said that the policy is aimed at maximizing government revenue and strengthening monitoring, as well as combating under-invoicing. COMMENTS: EDDY MARTONO (the chairman of GAPKI, the Indonesian palm oil producers 'association) Not all exporters have processing industries. Many of these companies are also traders or trading firms that deal with relatively small volumes in certain countries. What will happen to these companies with the creation of this body?" Even within the same industry the orders might not be the exact same. "Can requirements such as this be accommodated?" Exporters typically have their own markets. We must make sure that we don't lose these markets because of poor management. B.V. MEHTA - EXECUTIVE Director of the SOLVENTEXTRACTORS’ ASSOCIATION INDIA We are waiting to see the details of Indonesian export policy in order to assess its impact on Indian imports. Indonesia is India's largest supplier of palm oils, and any change could affect imports to India. GITA MAHYARANI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE INDONESIAN COAL MINING ?ASSOCIATION: "We think this plan needs further explanations from the government. Especially because the export mechanism via a state-owned company is a relatively novel approach for the coal sector." This plan?also needs to?be reviewed carefully. "This plan?also needs to be reviewed carefully." H KRISTIONO is the CEO of Indonesia's UCOAL Resources: The potential positives include: GOI's (the government of Indonesia) ability to align its exports to national interests, greater bargaining power because of the larger scale, revenue optimisation, if properly managed, improved data and planning. "Potential Negatives: Lower prices for producers, reduced investor attraction, innovation and efficiency may slow down, high concentration risks due to a central entity." RIZKI SIREGAR ECONOMIST UNIVERSITY?INDONESIA In the current setup, it is clear that the agency will have a monopoly on Indonesian exports and Indonesian producers. Its strategy will be to lower its purchasing price and raise its selling price. "The first is easier, since producers' only option will be to sell their products?domestically. (And selling their produce on the?black market would be less probable or at least more risky). The second option is more difficult because the commodities chosen are homogeneous and have a limited ability to affect world prices. This setup will result in a price drop, which is exactly what President Obama "doesn't want to happen." "This new setup is also blind to the challenges that Indonesian exporters face. According to the World Bank's survey of enterprise, Indonesian exporters are more likely to be bribed than their peers and average Indonesian companies. Indonesia's exporters "also face higher costs of trade for both importing and exporting." Exporters already face severe distortions. The agency could create even more.
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President says Indonesia will bring all commodity exports under centralised management.
Indonesian President Prabowo said that his government would centralise the exports of certain commodities in order to increase state revenues. In a fiery address to the parliament, Prabowo claimed that Indonesia had lost as much as $900 billion in revenue in the past 34 years due to the low prices of its commodities. He also said that in the future, key exports such as palm oil and coal will be sold through a government-run central enterprise. Indonesia is the largest exporter in the world of palm oil and thermal coal. Prabowo stated, "Today Indonesian government which I lead will release a regulation regarding the management of commodity exports." "The publication of this regulation is an important step in strengthening management of commodity exports,"? he said. He added that "all sales of our resources - palm oil, coal - must go through an SOE chosen by the government...as exclusive exporters". Prabowo’s remarks confirm previous accounts from sources who were familiar with the issue, who claimed that Indonesia was planning to move in order to strengthen the government’s oversight of its natural resources. Rumours of the plan have caused the stock market to panic, as it is feared that the changes could affect pricing mechanisms and reduce trader margins. Jakarta's main index fell 3.5% on Monday and almost 2% on Tuesday. Sources said that Prabowo's move, which aims to address concerns over exporters' under-invoicing, and transfer pricing, was a response to the concern about the issue. They declined to name the sources because they were not authorized to speak in public. Prabowo claimed that Indonesia's natural resource could provide enough welfare for the entire country, if managed in accordance with the constitution. He said: "In the view of the government, and I'm sure that every patriot would?support it - earth, water, and all resources contained within must be enjoyed by all Indonesians." He added that despite being a G20 member and a country rich in natural resources, Indonesia has not managed its economy well enough to increase state revenues. One source said that the regulations needed to bring the plan into effect had not been finalised.
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Europe's EV sales surge as Iran War pushes up petrol prices
Data exclusively shared with shows that demand for electric vehicles has risen in Europe as fuel prices linked to the 'Iran War' have pushed sales of second-hand and new EVs. This is a boost for the auto industry. While?sales for fully electric cars in Europe are expected to grow 30% by 2025, the adoption of EVs on the continent is still behind industry expectations. 'Carmakers - from Fiat-owned Stellantis to Volkswagen, who had invested heavily to meet the expectation of a much higher EV market, have booked multi-billion dollar charges in the past year to cover asset writedowns. The rise in oil prices has changed the calculations of buyers. Since U.S. airstrikes and Israeli strikes on Iran, at the end February, a wider conflict was triggered and an unprecedented disruption to energy supplies occurred. This isn't a blip. It's an inflection. Gurjeet Grewal said. Octopus Electric Vehicles in the UK registered a 95% increase year-on-year in demand for new EVs - and a 160% increase for used EVs. Britain is particularly vulnerable to inflation and rising food prices as it is a net energy importer. Data from the industry group E-Mobility Europe and the?research group New Automotive showed that in Europe, registrations of EVs increased 34% year-on-year. Data covers 16 markets, which account for over 80% of European Union car sales and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) car sales. Electric cars have seen a strong growth in Denmark, the Netherlands and other markets. However, in Italy, EVs are still lagging behind. Erik Severinson, Volvo Cars Chief Commercial Officer, said that the Swedish automaker has seen an increase in orders. This is especially true for its small EX30 entry-level electric SUV. "This is where customers are most sensitive to increases in oil prices." "We also see increased customer inquiries in our fully electric cars - even in markets in southern Europe where EV penetration rates are lower," Severinsson stated. CARMAKERS CONSIDER MORE EVS PRODUCTION Renault France said that 50% of its registrations were EVs in Britain during April. EV-related inquiries on Renault's UK website have increased by 48% since the Iran War began. Registrations in April, which are behind orders, are the first to reflect the full impact of the Iran War. Adam Wood, managing director of Renault UK, said that the interest in Renault's electric vehicle range had changed dramatically. Unnamed sources at the automaker said that the company is working to increase production. Markus Haupt, CEO Seat/Cupra – both Volkswagen brands – said in a statement in early May that his sales team reported in Germany that EVs accounted for nearly 60% of orders - well above their quota. Haupt stated, "We have set a budget for production this year." "But we may need to increase our EVs." CHINESE BRANDS APPEAL TO AFFORDABILITY The online?marketplaces also saw an increase in searches for new or used EVs. Chinese brands, which offer more affordable models, experienced a pronounced rise. Since the start of the war, German online marketplace Carwow reported that its share of electric vehicle enquiries had risen from 40% to 75%, and conventional gasoline engines have dropped from 33% to 16%. Carwow Germany's Managing Director Philipp Sayler said: "What is striking about the Chinese manufacturers is their strong momentum." BYD has gone from a "niche brand" to one of the most popular names. Carwow reported that BYD purchase inquiries on its website grew by a staggering 25,000% during the first quarter. OLX, a rival online marketplace, said that customer inquiries for EVs were up 80% on its French site since the start of the war. When fuel prices spiked in the past, dating back to the 1970s and beyond, consumers switched to fuel-efficient vehicles but then returned to less efficient cars when the price of fuel dropped. Industry players have said that this time it could be different. Christian Gisy, CEO of OLX, said that the Iran conflict had fundamentally changed how people thought about energy security. "Europeans are moving from a'maybe someday to 'right away' attitude towards electric vehicles."
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Two Ukrainians killed in Russian attacks; Kyiv drones attack central Russia
Local officials reported that two people had been?killed? and 19 others injured overnight in Russia's attacks on Ukraine, while Ukraine sent drones into industrial areas of central Russia. Local authorities in Ukraine reported that two people died and six were injured when Russia attacked the city of Dnipro, located on the south-east coast, with artillery and missiles. Authorities?added that another 13 injuries were reported in the northern Sumy Region and the southern region of Zaporizhzhia. Three children included. We could not independently verify these reports. Russia and Ukraine deny targeting civilians. DRONES TARGET INDUSTRIAL AREA?IN RUSSIA According to Russian officials on social media, Ukraine has increased drone attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure. The number of oil refineries that have been targeted by the Ukrainians since the beginning?of this year has doubled. This is to 'deprive Moscow of energy revenues in order to end a war lasting more than four years. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in China with members of his government, business leaders and other key figures. TASS, citing the Russian Defence Ministry, reported that 273 drones were shot down over the country. The governor of the region said that drones in Russia have attacked industrial areas around Nevinnomyssk, located in southern Stavropol. No damage has been reported yet, but the attacks are continuing. Nevinnomyssky Azot is a large chemical factory in the area. It has been targeted by drones from Ukraine. Nizhny Novgorod mayor said on Telegram that drones were also used to attack the area around Kstovo in Russia, where an oil refinery owned by?Lukoil was located. Local authorities reported on Telegram that two drones were shot down over Leningrad in Russia's northwestern region, which is home to one the largest?refineries, and an oil exporting port. Authorities reported that an attack also occurred in the Belgorod border area, resulting in an ambulance driver being injured. Reporting by Jekaterina Glubkova, Tokyo; editing by Chris Reese and Tom Hogue. Lincoln Feast is the editor.
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Oil drops after Trump declares US will end Iran War'very soon'
Prices of oil fell on Wednesday, after U.S. president Donald Trump reiterated that the war against Iran would end "very soon", though investors are still wary over the outcome of the peace talks due to the continued disruptions in Middle East supply. Brent crude oil futures dropped 88 cents or 0.8% to $110.40 a bar by 0410 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures were also down 67 cents or 0.6% to $103.48. Emril Jamil is a senior oil analyst at LSEG. He said that benchmark prices have lowered on a possible deal as the market assesses geopolitical outcomes. He said that even if an agreement is reached, the prices will still have some upside potential, as supply won't return to prewar levels right away. The benchmarks both fell by almost $1 on Tuesday, after U.S. vice president JD Vance stated that the U.S. Both benchmarks fell by nearly $1 on Tuesday after U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the?U.S. Toshitaka Takawa, an analyst with Fujitomi Securities, said that investors are eager to see if Washington and Tehran can find common ground in order to reach a peaceful agreement. The U.S. position is changing daily. He said that oil prices would likely remain elevated, given the possibility of further U.S. strikes against Iran, and the expectation that even if peace is achieved, crude'supply' will not return quickly to pre-war levels. Trump said late Tuesday that he was confident the conflict would be resolved quickly, but he also stated earlier that the United States might need to strike Iran once again. He had even been about an hour from launching an attack when he decided to postpone it. His comments about the need to strike again come a day after he announced that he had paused a scheduled resumption following a new Iranian proposal to end the U.S. - Israeli war. Trump said Iran's leaders are also begging for a?deal and warned that a new U.S. strike would be launched in the coming days if an agreement is not reached. Citi said on Tuesday that it expects Brent crude prices to reach $120 per barrel in the near term. The company stated that oil markets undervalue the risks of a prolonged disruption to supply and other tail risks. Some?tankers managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz recently, though the number of ships remains well below the 130 or more that transited the Strait before the war. After waiting for over two months in the Gulf, two Chinese supertankers with 4 million?barrels of Middle East oil crude left the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday. In order to make up for the shortage of supplies worldwide due to the war, the countries are turning to their strategic and commercial inventories. According to sources, American Petroleum Institute data released on Tuesday showed that crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell for a 5th consecutive week. Fuel stocks also dropped. According to a survey, the U.S. crude stocks reported by the Energy Information Administration will have decreased by approximately 3.4 million barrels during the week ending May 15. The EIA will release its weekly data later on Wednesday. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi and Jeslyne Lerh from Singapore; editing by Christian Schmollinger
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MORNING BID EUROPE-As stocks slump, cue Nvidia
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Nvidia's earnings could cause the market to move $350 billion either way, according to a recent analysis of?options prices. Analysts expect another 'blockbuster' report from the chipmaker that is at the centre of the global AI frenzy. But the key question will be if Nvidia remains dominant in the face of a shift from training AI systems, to actually running them. Intel, AMD and Alphabet, the Google-owned company, are all emerging as competitors in what is known as inference chips. Nvidia also reports its first-quarter results 'at a delicate time for the markets. Following the overnight declines on Wall Street, stocks are falling around Asia. European equity futures also point lower. Donald Trump stated on 'Tuesday' that the U.S. might need to strike Iran once again. He said he was a mere hour away from launching an attack before he decided to postpone it following an Iranian peace proposal. Geopolitics is in full swing across the globe. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted "old friend" Vladimir Putin the Russian leader less than a fortnight after welcoming Trump and Japanese Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi wrapped up a summit to Seoul on Wednesday. In Europe, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Rome and Hungary's Peter Magyar will travel to Poland on his first official visit abroad as prime minister. Both are attempting to steer their countries back towards the European mainstream. Andrew Bailey and other Bank of England policymakers will be speaking to the Treasury Committee about topics such as the decision to lower rates last month, the Iran War, or the UK's April CPI. The U.S. Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its April meeting. The board held rates steady despite the 'biggest split in the past 20 years, with a dissenter urging a rate cut, and three others pushing for the removal of dovish language from the statement. The markets are looking to the incoming Fed chair Kevin?Warsh as a guide on how to move forward with monetary policy, and central bank independence. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Wednesday. Earnings for the first quarter of Nvidia Minutes -UK CPI, PPI, Germany PPI (all April); Euro Area final HICP
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Sources say that Indonesia is planning to centralise the export of commodities through a state agency.
Two sources with knowledge of the issue said that Indonesia is planning to create a 'body' that will oversee the exports of certain commodities. This move is intended to?combat under-invoicing?and increase state revenue. The market has been spooked by the news, as Jakarta's main index fell 3.5% on Tuesday. Sources said that all exports of coal and palm oil will be handled by the state agency. Other strategic commodities are expected to follow. Indonesia is the largest exporter of palm oil and thermal coal in the world. They declined to be named as they weren't authorised by the government to speak in public. One source said that the regulation for the plan is not finalised yet. The plan was not known to the spokesperson of the Trade Ministry, who was contacted on Tuesday. Sources said that the move by President Prabowo, who pledged to maximise?revenue?from the rich natural resources of the country, was intended to address concerns about?under-invoicing?and transfer pricing?by?exporters. Prabowo will deliver a rare address to the parliament later today on?Wednesday.
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Asian stocks drop for the 4th consecutive day, as higher yields bite. All eyes are on Nvidia's results
Investors were waiting for Nvidia's earnings to find out if the world's most valuable company could help markets cope with higher borrowing costs. Investors increased their bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2019. The sell-off continued overnight. Overnight, the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate hit a 16 month high of 4,687%, while 30-year Treasury rates climbed to 5,198%. These levels have not been seen since 2007. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% on Wednesday but still remained above $100 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and U.S. president Donald Trump has said that he may need to strike Iran once again. This comes a day after Trump announced he would postpone an imminent attack in order to continue negotiations with Tehran. Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, will be hosting his "old friend", Russian?President Vladimir Putin in Beijing less than a fortnight after Trump's high profile visit. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, fell 1.6%. South Korea's KOSPI fell 2%. Chinese blue-chips fell 0.4% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.7%. The stock futures for Europe as a whole?fell by 0.5%. Nasdaq's futures were unchanged while the S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said: "At this time, I still believe that we're seeing a correction after a rally which was absolutely phenomenal." The US yields are causing some rumbles and attracting attention in the market. "Nvidia might come out and exceed expectations, but I don't believe so." "I don't believe that Nvidia can do what it did in the past, which was to shock everyone." The giant chipmaker will release its first quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of the markets. As always, expectations are high. According to a median forecast of LSEG analysts, revenue is expected to rise by nearly 80%. Treasuries suffered losses in Asia. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes remained at 4.6713% despite a 21 basis point jump in the last three sessions. The 30-year yield was unchanged at 5.1858%, after a 17-bps increase from last Thursday. The dollar was?near its six-week high compared to other major currencies. The yen was stable at 159.05, after gaining for seven consecutive sessions. This unwound the majority of the gains made on April 30th when Japanese authorities intervened in the market to protect the yen below 160. Overnight, the?euro reached its lowest level since 8 April. The British pound is at $1.3380 - not far off the six-week low that it reached earlier in the week. The U.S. Dollar gained, and gold prices fell 0.4% to $4.463 per ounce. This is the lowest price since March.
Asian stocks continue to lose ground as higher yields bite and Nvidia results are in focus
Asian stocks continued to fall on Wednesday, as inflation fears caused by war hammered bonds. Investors awaited Nvidia's earnings in order to see if the world's largest?company could help markets cope with higher borrowing costs.
Investors bet that the Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates in this year.
Overnight, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached a 16-month peak of 4,687%, while 30-year Treasury yields climbed to 5,198%, a level not seen since 2007.
Stock futures for the entire region are down by 0.7%. Nasdaq's futures fell 0.1%, while S&P 500's futures were down 0.2%. Brent crude futures fell 0.5% on Wednesday but remained above $100 a barrel, at $110.7. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and U.S. president Donald Trump has said that he may need to strike Iran once again.
Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, met with Vladimir Putin in?Beijing less than a fortnight after Trump's high profile visit. He said it was essential to end the Middle East war. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 0.7% on Tuesday, for the fourth consecutive day. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.5% for the fifth straight session. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.7%. Samsung Electronics fell 1.4% after the union announced that it would continue with an 18-day walkout starting on Thursday. This could threaten global semiconductor supply.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.6%, while China's blue chip CSI300 index remained flat. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said, "At this time, I still believe that we're seeing a correction after a phenomenal rally." The U.S. yields are causing some rumblings in the markets and now attracting lots of attention.
"Nvidia might come out and absolutely surpass expectations... but I doubt it." "I don't believe that Nvidia can do what it did, which was to shock everyone with its sheer power and brightness."
The giant chipmaker will release its first quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of the markets. As always, expectations are high. According to the median forecast of an LSEG analyst survey, revenue is expected to increase by nearly 80%.
Treasuries suffered losses in Asia. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes remained at 4.6613% after a 21 basis point jump in the last three sessions. The 30-year yield remained flat at 5.1795%, after a 17 basis-point jump since last Thursday. The dollar was near its six-week high compared to other major currencies. The yen was stable at 158.95, after gaining for seven consecutive sessions. This helped to reverse the majority of the losses caused by the Japanese authorities' intervention on April 30th when they stepped in the market to protect the yen around the 160 mark. Last night, the euro bought $1.1597 after reaching its lowest price since April 8. The British pound is at $1.3391 - not far off the six-week high it reached earlier in the week.
The U.S. Dollar gained, and gold prices fell 0.4% to $4.463 per ounce. This is the lowest price since March.
(source: Reuters)