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Early monsoon rains will hit the southern Indian coast, causing crop planting
The state-run weather service announced on Friday that monsoon rains will hit India's southern coast six days sooner than normal, leading farmers to hope for early plantings of rice, corn and other crops. India Meteorological Department said in a press release that the monsoon will likely arrive over Kerala's southern state on May 26. The margin of error is four days. The'monsoon' usually ends in Kerala by the middle of September. India's $4 trillion economy relies on the monsoon to replenish reservoirs and aquifers, as well as water its farms. India Meteorological Department predicted below-average rains for 2026, the first time since 2013. This raised concerns about farm production and economic growth. India Meteorological Department defines a normal or average rainfall as falling between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average rainfall of 87 cm for a four-month period. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Mayank Bhardwaj)
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Watchdogs warn that foreign buyers are fueling the illegal mineral trade in Nigeria.
A joint report by the government and civil society revealed that Nigeria is losing vast amounts of mineral revenue to illegal trading networks, which are dominated by shell companies, foreign buyers, and armed criminals groups. This highlights the extent of illicit activity. The report was produced by Nigeria's extractive industry watchdog NEITI and Africa Network for Environment and Economic Justice with UK government funding. It found that illicit financial flow in the mining sector occurs through commercial manipulation, corrupt officials, and cross-border smuggling. Nigeria's mining industry contributed only 0.72% of GDP in 2023, 0.28% of revenue, and 0.75% % of exports. This is a fraction of the oil and gas sector, which was responsible for 82% of revenues and 29% of exports. The Financial Intelligence Unit of Nigeria has identified illegal mining in Nigeria as a growing threat to national security and the economy. The report alleges that foreign buyers, especially Chinese actors, have a disproportionate impact on pricing, purchasing arrangements, and export channels. They negotiate directly at mine sites. The report alleges that this allows for a'systematic undervaluation, weights and grades manipulation, and informal payments. Shell companies registered under Nigerian laws are often used by foreign companies to conceal ownership. They use local proxy firms to gain access licenses and permits. This practice, according to the report, facilitates money laundering and trade misinvoicing. In areas plagued by banditry or terrorism, an estimated 80% mining in North-West Nigeria will be illegal. This activity is expected to increase between 2022 and 2024. The report highlighted a growing overlap in commercial interests linked to China and local conflicts. It said that the May 2025 conviction of four Chinese nationals in 'Plateau State', each sentenced to 20 years with forfeiture of assets, is an exception. Requests for comments were not immediately responded to by the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development or the Chinese Embassy at Abuja.
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As rising yields and the dollar sap appeal, gold drops by 2%
Gold fell more than 2% on Friday, as a strong U.S. dollar and surging Treasury yields weakened its appeal. Higher oil prices and continued tensions in Middle East also reinforced expectations for higher interest rates. By 1141 GMT the spot gold price was down by 2.1%, at $4,551.81 an ounce, its lowest level since May 5. Bullion has already lost 3.4% this week. U.S. gold futures for delivery in June fell 2.8% to $4,556.40. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields have risen to a near-year-high, increasing the cost of gold that does not yield. Dollar strength also made greenback-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "Yields are higher and the dollar is stronger on increased inflationary concerns. This is partly due to the Gulf hostilities, but also backed by the PPI and CPI figures released this week," said StoneX analyst Rhona OConnel. Brent crude oil prices rose 7.8% in the past week and hovered above $109 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. As manufacturers pass on the costs, higher fuel prices can contribute to inflation. In turn, this forces central banks keep interest rates high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding metals. This week, data on inflation showed that consumers and businesses have begun to feel the effects of war. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, traders have priced in U.S. rate cuts for this year. O'Connell said that "Gold has been wary about the Gulf -war for some time now, and the news from India this week regarding import duties has increased tensions in an already weak market." This week, gold discounts in India reached a new record. The reason was a steep increase in import duties. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that the news is awash with uncertainty, which is causing gold prices to rise. Spot silver dropped 6.3%, to $78.26 an ounce. Platinum fell 3.1%, to $1,991.33, while palladium fell 1%, to $1,422.41. All three metals were on track to post weekly losses. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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Nigeria offers pension funds a waiver on investing in the proposed Dangote refinery IPO
Nigeria's pensions regulator has granted fund managers a "special waiver" to invest in the planned initial public offering of?Dangote Oil?Refinery. This is an unusual policy change aimed at supporting a key asset for the country. A circular dated May 13 stated that the National Pension Commission would suspend eligibility criteria, such as "profitability" and a track record of dividends which typically govern how pension funds allocate their assets. The move is part of an broader effort to channel domestic long-term?capital towards large industrial projects viewed as?vital for growth and energy security. PenCom stated that the decision was made after a review of "strategic significance" and "strong foundations", as well as a review the track record of Dangote Group, the parent company. Fund administrators can invest in an IPO under a waiver but they must adhere to internal guidelines, risk control and fiduciary responsibilities towards?contributors, retirees and fund contributors. The regulator stated that the forbearance is "exceptional and one-off, and strictly case-specific," but it will not apply automatically to future offerings. Aliko Dangote's refinery is Africa's biggest and has helped Nigeria to rely less on fuel imports. PenCom stated that the directive was effective immediately. Reporting by Camillus Eboh; Writing by Elisha Gbogbo; Editing by Andrew Heavens
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Trump spoke to Xi on lifting sanctions against Chinese companies buying Iranian oil
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Friday that he will soon make a decision about lifting sanctions against Chinese companies who 'buy Iranian oil'. Hengli Petrochemical, one of China's largest private refiners, and a symbol for Beijing's efforts to modernize?and upgrade?the industry, was among the Chinese oil refiners that were sanctioned by the U.S. Trump said to reporters on Air 'Force One, shortly after departing Beijing following his two day?summit? with President Xi Jinping. The Chinese summary of the summit did not mention any deals, but U.S. officials such as Trump mentioned the possibility that China could buy more American energy during the summit. Trump stated that his patience was running out with 'Iran. He said that he and Xi had agreed that Tehran 'couldn't be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon. He said that he would be fine with Iran suspending its nuclear program for a period of 20 years but that Tehran must make a "real commitment". Trump said that "twenty years" is sufficient, but the level of assurance?from Tehran must be a real twenty years. (Reporting Trevor Hunnicutt and Susan Heavey; Writing by Doina chiacu; Editing Michelle Nichols).
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INDIA BONDS - India bonds have their worst week since six years; oil and rupee slumps hurt short-end debts, swaps
The Indian government bonds suffered a'sharpest weekly decline in six weeks,' due to a?continued surge in U.S. Treasury and oil yields. This was compounded by the'stagnant fall of the local currency, which has reached record lows. Fears of central bank rate hikes were also heightened by the 'constant' bearish movement in key fundamentals, resulting in the underperformance of shorter-duration bonds and swaps. Gurvinder Singh wasan, a senior fund manager with Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund, said: "Geopolitical tenseness, higher commodity prices, in particular oil prices, and the depreciation of currency has resulted in an deterioration in inflation, current account deficit, balance of payments and fiscal debt." On Friday, the yield on the benchmark 2035 bond of 6.48% ended at 7.0644% while the yield on the five-year bond of 6.36%?"2031 closed at 6.8633%. The spread has narrowed from 30 bps to 20 bps - the lowest level in two months. Prices and yields are inversely related. The Indian rupee fell in all five sessions of this week and reached an all-time high on Friday at 96.1350, as rising oil costs intensified economic challenges. Key indicators are beginning to show signs of strain. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note jumped by almost 20 basis points to 4.55%, due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is unlikely cut rates further. Brent crude's benchmark contract rose 7% and moved closer to $100 per barrel as bets on supply worries increased. Donald Trump has stated that he's losing patience with Iran. "We assume crude averages $95.bbl - for the full year - and bring forward our first rate hike from February to December, with a risk of an earlier move if West 'Asian Crisis persists causing a disorderly increase in energy prices."?ICICI Primary Dealership stated. India's overnight swap rates for indexes jumped throughout the week. The spread between one-year and five-year swaps was reduced due to rate hike fears, which could flatten the curve. The five-year rate ended at 6.71 percent and the one-year swap closed at 6.17%. Spreads have shrunk to 54 basis points from 66 basis points last Friday.
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Sources say that Brazil police are targeting Rio's former governor and Refit owner as part of a tax investigation.
Two sources familiar with the investigation said that the Brazilian federal police had targeted the former governor of Rio de Janeiro, Claudio Castro, and the owner Refit Refinery Ricardo Magro as part of an investigation into alleged tax evasion. Castro and Magro did not immediately respond to a request for comment from. The police, without naming any suspects, said that they had launched an investigation into a conglomerate in the fuel industry suspected of concealing assets, faking assets and transferring money abroad. According to a statement, the Supreme Court ordered that assets worth approximately 52 billion Reis ($10.4 Billion) be frozen and that the economic activities of companies under investigation be suspended. The court also decided that the suspect would be added to Interpol's Red Notice. CONTEXT Brazil's tax authorities have played a key role in major investigations uncovering money laundering schemes connected to criminal organizations operating in the fuel sector, and identifying multiple overseas operations. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva publicly asked U.S. president Donald Trump to arrest Refit's owner, a?of?the?main?companies involved in this scheme who lives in the United States. Claudio Castro resigned ?from office in Rio de Janeiro in March. In March, Brazil's Electoral Court barred Castro from holding office for 8 years for abuse of power and economics, prohibited conduct, and illicit fundraising for the 2022 elections.
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India's trade deficit widens due to a surge in crude imports due to the Mideast war
India's trade deficit grew to $28.38billion in April as a surge of crude shipments?pushed imports up to a six-month peak with the?Middle East Conflict disrupting supplies?and raising oil and gas?prices. As the rupee plunges to new lows and becomes Asia's worst performing currency, policymakers are concerned that the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which lasted for months, could slow down growth, increase inflation, or affect India's balance-of-payments. India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. It ships more than 80% of its crude and 60% of its cooking gas from the Middle East. A poll showed that economists estimated the April trade deficit to be $26.5 billion. In?March, the trade deficit was $20.67 billion. Government data released on Friday showed that merchandise exports increased to $43.56 billion from $38.92 in the previous months, while imports reached a six-month record of $71.94 billion compared to $59.59 in March. Rajesh Agrawal, the federal trade secretary, told reporters that exports reached a decade-high in April. This was largely due to higher-value petroleum shipments and electronic goods. Aditi Nair, Chief Economist at ICRA, says that increased exports will not be able to control the trade deficit, putting pressure on the current accounts. She expects that the current account deficit will be about 2% of the GDP for the current fiscal period, which is more than double the estimated level for the previous year. Oil shipments jumped 53% in April to $18.63 Billion from $12.18 Billion in March. This marked a dramatic increase in the import bill. Since the Iran War began at the end of February, global crude prices have risen to $120 per barrel. Refiners imported more gold dore, which led to an 84% increase in imports. After the release of the trade data, the Indian rupee dropped to a new low. It fell below the 96-to dollar level for the first time. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged a series of measures, including fuel conservation and?work from home practices, as well as limits on travels and imports to conserve foreign currency reserves. South Asia, the second largest gold consumer in the world, has increased tariffs on gold and silver, and tightened rules regarding duty-free gold for jewellery exports. State-run fuel retailers raised the price of gasoline and diesel for the first time since four years on Friday by more than 3 percent. According to the government, services exports were $37.24 billion and imports $16.66 billion in April. This partially offsets the merchandise trade deficit.
Bond yields rise on inflation fears as global shares fall
Global shares fell on Friday, as investor euphoria about tech stocks was replaced by inflation fears. Bond yields rose and expectations of interest rate hikes in this year were raised.
MSCI's main world stocks index fell by 0.35%. Europe's STOXX600 dropped?1.37% after rising the previous two sessions.
Nasdaq Futures dropped 1.32%, and S&P500 futures dropped 0.9%. Wall Street had hit new highs after a 4% rise in AI darling Nvidia.
The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan dropped 2.54%.
Japan's Nikkei fell 1.99% following data showing wholesale inflation increased to 4.9% in the month of April, the highest pace in three-years, keeping the Bank of Japan in line to raise interest rates.
In the past few days "it has been this relentless rally. "I think that this rally has reached a point of exhaustion," said Tim Graf. He is the managing director at State Street Markets and is responsible for EMEA's macro strategy.
He added that the equities market remains supported.
He said that if there is anything to cause a reversal, it's the rate market and the possibility that inflation will stay above target.
Prices of oil?rose as the uncertainty surrounding a Middle East Peace Deal and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz was in the spotlight. Brent crude futures climbed 2.3% to $108.14 per barrel, on course for a 6.7% gain in a week.
Attention has also been focused on Beijing, where U.S. president Donald Trump concluded a state trip. Trump stated that after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping they both agreed Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. They also agreed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
"President Trump’s China visit continues and is a welcome respite from the Iran war anxiety. Padhraic G Garvey is the regional head of ING's Americas research.
"The front and center issue is delivered inflation which remains troubling for Treasury markets." We continue to maintain a view that yields will be tested on the upside in the coming weeks.
YIELDS SPike
The global bond market was again under pressure Friday due to the rising inflation risk, fueled by higher oil prices.
The yields on German 10-year bonds, the benchmark of the eurozone, increased by more than 7 basis points, to 3,1199%. Meanwhile, Japanese yields reached record highs.
The yields on U.S. 2-year notes US2YT=RR increased by 5.8 bps, to 4.0498%. And the yields on 10-year notes US10YT=RR also rose 7.7 bps, to 4.5358%. Both yields are at their highest levels in about a year.
A run of weak auctions in this week has highlighted the fragility of the market.
Dollar to gain 1.4% a week - most in 2 months - due to 'lack of progress' in Gulf.
The strength of the greenback pushed the yen down to 158?per?dollar and traders were on alert for any further interventions from Tokyo.
The sterling hit a new low of five weeks and fell 0.3% last session to $1.3360. It had fallen 0.9% the previous day following the resignation by Wes Streeting as health minister, which deepened Britain's political crisis. Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin from London and Stella Qiu from Sydney. (Editing by Sam Holmes Mark Potter and Joe Bavier.
(source: Reuters)