Europe

The markets overshoot and the recent dramatic increase in bets placed on higher interest rates due to the Middle East energy crisis is the latest example: although the move was logical, its magnitude remains questionable. The Iran War shows no signs of stopping and the?markets are still in flux. Rates traders may need to take a break and re-evaluate. The abrupt change in global 'rate outlook' reflects concerns about the short-term impact on inflation of the soaring prices for oil and gas. Federal Reserve now has a higher probability of raising U.S. interest rates in this year rather than cutting...

Confindustria, Italy's leading business lobby, forecast that the economy would grow by 0.5% in this year. This is a reduction from the 0.7% it had predicted in October. It also warned of'strong' 'downside risks' if the Iran conflict continues. The third largest economy in the Eurozone saw its gross domestic product rise by 0.5%, marking the third consecutive year of growth below 1%. Confindustria stated in its bi-annual report that the 0.5% growth scenario for 2026 was based on an "optimistic hypothesis" that?the conflict in Iran would be over by March's end. The business group warned that if the hostilities...

The minutes from the most recent meeting of the Riksbank on monetary policy showed that the future is uncertain. Erik Thedeen, Governor of the Riksbank, said that it was difficult to assess?the effects? of war but warned of the dangers of stagflation (higher inflation and lower growth). Thedeen stated in the minutes that "given the length of time the crisis has been going on and the effects already being felt by the energy infrastructure, I am concerned about the long-term impact this may have on the supply of oil and natural gas in the world." On March 19, the Riksbank...

The Philippines' ambassador to the United States stated that it is working closely with Washington in order to securing waivers and exceptions to allow oil to be purchased from sanctioned U.S. countries. This will 'ensure supply. The Philippines, which is heavily dependent on imported fuels, declared on Tuesday a national energy emergency in order to deal with Middle East War fallout, including oil procurement. In a series of phone messages, Jose Manuel Romualdez said: "We're working with the State Department on getting waivers or exemptions for oil purchases from sanctioned U.S. countries." Romualdez responded that "all options" are being considered...

The Iran War and the global energy crisis it unleashed could have "killed" the idea of an asset that fits all. It is not a novel concept given the poor performance of the U.S. Treasuries did well after the Russian invasion of Ukraine four years earlier. The extraordinary fall in gold prices since the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran, February 28, has brought it into the spotlight. In times of increased economic, geopolitical or financial uncertainty, investors tend to flock to gold, Swiss franc, Treasuries and the dollar. These are the assets that will most likely serve as a...

Dutch Central Bank Governor,?Olaf Sleijpen?said Tuesday that the rising oil and gas prices will likely affect the economy faster than they did during '2022's energy crisis. The Dutch representative in the ECB Governing Council stated that he and his colleagues would have more information on their April meeting about the second-round effect, which occurs if firms raise?their price to offset higher input cost and employees demand higher wages. We can't control the price of oil and gas, but we are able to act if we notice second-round effects. "I think we'll have more information?on that front - in April", he...

The British government announced on Monday that the Iranian ambassador in the UK was summoned. Last week, an Iranian national and a British-Iranian dual citizen were arrested on suspicion of aiding Iran's spy services. Two men were accused in a London Court last week of 'being involved in gathering information from Iranian spy services and conducting reconnaissance of Jewish targets within?Britain over a five-week period in the summer of last year. The British Foreign Office said that "national security is our number one priority and we take the threats posed by Iran and those who follow its orders 'extremely serious."...

The Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday told the government to take "balanced" decisions on how to use newly increased'state revenue' from?energy exports in light of a surge in global prices. He also stressed that the economy and the public accounts must be protected from external risks. He asked Russia's energy companies to use their additional revenues to pay back the massive debts they owe to banks. Prior to this month's dramatic rise in energy and?oil prices, due to the conflict in the Middle East, Russia had been experiencing falling budget revenues due to a greater discount on its oil...

According to the preliminary results from 'the state election commission', based on?the most votes?counted?, the right-leaning Slovenian Democratic Party and liberal Freedom Movement were tied at Sunday's parliamentary elections in Slovenia. Even with their existing coalition partners, neither party appeared likely to win the 46 seats required for a majority of the 90-seat Parliament. This makes smaller parties who cross the 4% threshold potentially kingmakers. SDS won 28 seats. Based on 99.45% counted votes, GS was in a close race with SDS. With the support of the other parties, GS, led by the incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob, would have...

The British government announced that Prime Minister Keir starmer will chair an urgent meeting on the economic impact of the war in Iran, on Monday. Finance minister Rachel Reeves, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are expected to attend. Investors should prepare for another turbulent?week on the financial markets, after Iran warned that it would 'hit the energy and water system?of its Gulf neighbours' if U.S. president Donald Trump followed through on his threat to strike Iran’s electricity grid. The British are watching this situation with particular concern. The high level of inflation, the country's dependence on natural gas...

Slovenia temporarily limited fuel purchases on Sunday to combat shortages caused by stockpiling and cross-border fuelling due to the Iran War. This has raised concerns about the security of fuel supplies as the country prepares to vote. Robert Golob, the Prime Minister, announced on Saturday night that fueling at individual service station will be limited to 50 litres a day for private vehicles. The restrictions will remain in force until further notice. "Let's reassure you there will not be any fuel shortages in Slovenia. The warehouses are filled and?there is no shortage of fuel," said Golob. A liberal, Golob is...

Analysts were cautious, however, as they feared that the weekend could bring about unexpected changes to the war status two weeks after its start. Brent futures were up $1.59 or 1.58% to $102.05 a barrel at 11:35 AM CDT (1635 GMT), pointing towards a weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), for April, gained $1.15 or 1.2% to $96.88 per barrel. This was also a week-to-week increase. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. We're about to enter another weekend, where this could be over by Monday. We could also see that the war continues and...

Boliden announced on Wednesday that it expected earnings for the first quarter of 2026 - before interest, taxes and depreciation - to be impacted by about 400 million Swedish crowns ($42.77m) due to production being impacted in its Garpenberg Mine because of abnormally high earthquake activity earlier this month. Swedish miner reported its first-quarter production was slightly less than 0.8 million tonnes, down from an initial?expectation that slightly more than 0.9 million tonnes. The company said that production in the worst affected part of the mine will not resume until 2026. Garpenberg said that until further notice, its production will...

Four people with knowledge of the matter said that discussions of a potential sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (TKSE) to Jindal Steel International may be cancelled due?to disagreements over pension liabilities and investments, as well as energy costs. The people say that while discussions over a possible sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe are ongoing and could still lead to an agreement, a?deal is less likely now after nearly six months' worth of due diligence. One person said that the companies may decide to stop official negotiations as early as next month. Thyssenkrupp tried to sell TKSE a number of times...

Greenland's Naleraq Party, which supports rapid independence from Denmark won its first Danish seat at the general election. This sends a critic of Copenhagen-Nuuk's union to a parliamentary chamber during a crucial time in the history of the kingdom. Naleraq secured 24.6% of the vote on Tuesday, an increase of sharply from 12.2% during the 2022 elections. The election result comes amid increased international interest in Greenland after U.S. president Donald Trump's attempts to control the Arctic Island. "It's a clear signal that the status quo in Greenland will not be tolerated," said Qarsoq Hgh-Dam who won Naleraq’s seat. He...

Schindler's head, who is Swiss, told? The head of the Swiss lift maker told? Bloomberg News reported last week that TK Elevator, a subsidiary of?Finland?s?Kone?was in negotiations to purchase TK Elevator? (TKE), citing people familiar with the situation. The merger would make Schindler the second largest lift manufacturer in the world, surpassing OTIS. Schindler CEO Paolo Compagna stated that the deal would be a 'bloodbath' bound to disrupt industry as the third- and fourth-largest manufacturers of lifts would have to integrate overlapping customer bases and production sites, and also?teams. Compagna stated in the interview that she was sure that they...

London copper fell on Tuesday after Iran denied holding talks with the U.S. about ending the Middle East war and launched new missile attacks against Israel. In official open outcry, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange fell 1.6% to $11,974 per metric tonne. Metal prices rose 2% after U.S. president Donald Trump said that he had "very productive" talks with Tehran, and had postponed the threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. EwaManthey, ING commodities strategist, said: "Copper has eased today following yesterday's rebound as geopolitical confidence faded." The rise in oil prices and the strengthening dollar have...

Gold prices continued to fall on Tuesday. This was due to a combination of 'persistent Middle East tensions' that fueled inflation fears and expectations for higher interest rates worldwide. By 9:00 am, spot gold had fallen 0.6% per ounce to $4 377.93. ET (1300 GMT), having hit its lowest level since November, at $4,097.99. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery fell 0.6% to $4378.80. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said: "If energy prices continue to rise and the war continues, this is not good news for gold." He added, "Gold is going to...

Gold prices have pared their losses after dropping by more than 2% on Tuesday. Investors remain wary of the Middle East conflict, despite conflicting signals about Iran-U.S. negotiations. Around 0820 GMT, spot gold fell 0.2% to $4396.74 an ounce. Prices fell more than 8% to $4,097.99 an ounce on Monday, the lowest level since November 24. They then pared some losses. U.S. Gold Futures for April Delivery fell?1.5%, to $4340.90. Iran denied that it had held any talks with the U.S., after President Donald Trump backed down on his threat to bomb Iran's electricity grid. He cited what he called...

Nornickel, world's largest palladium producer, says demand for the metal could reach 0.8 million ounces annually in the future from China's fiberglass industry, helping to offset a?expected drop in demand from the?auto sector. Nornickel of Russia, which produces about 40% of the global palladium, will set up a Palladium Centre in 2023. The center's goal is to find new uses for this metal, beyond autocatalysts which consume more than 80%. Dmitry Izotov of the Palladium Center said that China purchased 20,000 ounces?of palladium to test its use for the glass industry. After successful '300-day' industrial trials, the Chinese are now...

MMK, Russia's largest steelmaker, announced on Monday that it would halt new investments and axe 10% of its management staff due to a weak domestic demand. The demand for metals in the Russian construction, energy, automobile and machinery manufacturing industries, which are the main customers, is decreasing as companies stop investing due to high interest rates, as the central bank battles inflation. Western sanctions also affected the metals industry. In a recent statement, MMK CEO Pavel Shilyaev stated that the metals industry was the most sensitive?barometer? of economic?condition. The current state of the sector is challenging. Shilyaev said, "We have...

The top U.S. economic officials and Chinese leaders will launch a second round of negotiations in Paris on Sunday. They hope to smooth out the kinks of their trade truce, and prepare for Donald Trump's visit to Beijing at the end March to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. Discussions between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to center on the shifting of?U.S. Tariffs, the flow of Chinese rare earth minerals and magnetics to U.S. customers, American export controls, and Chinese purchases of U.S. agriculture products are all expected to be discussed. A source...

?Top U.S. economic officials and Chinese officials will launch a second round of talks on Sunday in Paris to smooth out the kinks 'in their trade truce, and to prepare for Donald Trump to travel to Beijing at the end of March to meet with Chinese president Xi Jinping. The U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, and the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to lead discussions on a number of issues, including shifting U.S. Tariffs, the flow of Chinese rare earth minerals to U.S. buyers and American export controls for high-tech products, and Chinese purchases U.S. agriculture products. A...

Greenland's Siumut Party has withdrawn from a 'coalition' government, said the Prime Minister 'on Friday. This weakens efforts to present an united front against U.S. president 'Donald Trumps' 'campaign' to 'take control of the Arctic Island. The party's departure comes after Siumut chair Aleqa Hammond warned that it would leave if two Greenlandic Ministers declared candidacies in the March 24 Danish parliamentary elections without a prior "leave". Greenland's Premier Jens-Frederik Nie expressed disappointment, but stated that his "government" would continue. He stressed the importance of good governance in a time of increased global scrutiny. He told reporters: "It's terrible timing,...