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Witkoff says that Russia has told Trump they are not sharing US military assets with Iran.
Steve Witkoff, U.S. Special Envoy to CNBC on Tuesday, said that Russia has denied sharing intelligence with Iran about U.S. military assets in the Middle East. Witkoff stated that the denial occurred during a telephone call between?U.S. Donald Trump spoke with?Vladimir Putin, the Russian president on Monday. The Washington Post reported Friday that Russia is providing Iran with information on targeting, including the locations of U.S. warships & aircraft in the Middle East. Witkoff responded that "yesterday, on the call with President Obama, the Russians stated that they had not been sharing" when asked by Washington if it believed Russia shared intelligence with Tehran about the location U.S. Military assets. We can trust their words. They?did say it. Jared (Kushner), I and Yuri Ushakov (Kremlin's foreign policy aide) spoke independently yesterday morning. They both confirmed the same thing," Witkoff said. He added: "That is a better question for the intel people, but let's just hope they aren't sharing."
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As the war continues, both low and high income US consumers could be hit by higher gasoline prices, volatile stock, and rising stocks.
The U.S. and Israel war against?Iran is likely to hit consumers hard across the United States' economic spectrum. This could undermine a key component of the economy that was?expected? to boom this year due in part because of a hefty income tax refund, low unemployment and rising asset prices. Analysts felt that both "spurs", of the U.S.'so-called K-shaped economic model, could maintain or even increase spending in the upcoming months. Wealth effects would lead better-off families and service industry workers to spend more, while windfall tax refunds due to 'new exemptions on overtime and tip income, helped hourly workers. Both sides may be under pressure from different sources. According to American Automobile Association, the average national gasoline price topped $3.50 per gallon on Tuesday morning. This is a 17% increase from the $3.50 average before the start of the conflict. Prices have risen above $3 a gallon in all states except Kansas. Oil markets are still volatile due to the shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz, so analysts predict that gas prices could reach $4 if the conflict continues. The stock market has fallen from its highs, and uncertainty over what comes next is a major factor for household spending, which is based on increasing net worth. President Donald Trump hinted on Monday at a quick resolution to the conflict, sending stocks higher. However, overnight, he changed his tone and warned of the risks of an extended conflict, including the impact on global supply chains, commodity prices, and corporate earnings. The major U.S. stocks indices showed little change when the trading began on Tuesday. Rising?gasoline prices could cause lower-income families to cut back on other spending categories, causing businesses to suffer, which could lead them to reduce their investment and job plans. The longer the oil price stays high, the more it will hurt consumers and drag the economy down. Prices at a particular level for a period of time can change from a positive impact on GDP to a negative one, increasing the probability of a recession. This is what Luke Tilley said, chief economist of Wilmington Trust. Oil prices in the range of $85-$100 per barrel for several months will "materially increase" the risk of a recession, because the labor market has been in a difficult state. Benchmark Brent crude rose to $116 per barrel on Monday, then fell below $90. It rose again on Tuesday. U.S. defense secretary Pete Hegseth has said that Tuesday will see the most intensive strikes against Iran. A top general also spoke of targeting Iran's ability to lay mines on the Strait of Hormuz as a possible move towards reopening the shipping through the chokepoint, where the Middle East oil movement is all but stopped. The sudden change in the risks facing the U.S. economy and the global economy posed a challenge for central bank policymakers. This was especially true in the U.S. where officials saw a strong economy with a balance of risks, including inflation about a point above the 2% target, but which was expected to decline, and a stable unemployment rate in a range between 4.3% and 5%, without any consensus on whether it would spike higher. This view is now being challenged by both sides.?With the economy having already shed jobs in February, the uncertainty caused by the conflict may cause businesses to be more cautious when it comes to hiring. Meanwhile, inflation could increase if oil prices rise and affect other costs, such as shipping rates or home heating expenses. The current environment poses risks, even though higher fuel costs may only have a temporary impact on inflation or could even reduce broader price pressures if consumers divert spending to other areas, and growth overall slows. Kansas City Fed researchers conducted an analysis after oil prices jumped in 2022, following Russia's invasion in Ukraine. They concluded that increases in gasoline prices can have a large impact on household inflation expectations. Investors expect the Fed will cut interest rates in this year. However, the timing has shifted after the beginning of U.S. Military action. A potential standoff is developing between policymakers over inflation and growth concerns. Next week, the Fed is expected to maintain its current policy rate of 3.5% to 3.75%. Vincent Reinhart, former Fed top staffer and chief economist at BNY Investments, said that it is too early to make any predictions about the economic impact of the conflict. Even concerns over the impact on the economy have to be tempered because the U.S. is a net producer of energy, which means that higher global prices could mean higher gas prices for U.S. customers, but it would also mean more income and jobs for U.S. energy companies. The longer oil prices stay high, the greater the risk. A barrel costing $90 or more for a period of a month could be a material shock which would start to undermine consumption and growth. Reinhart stated that "you have to have oil prices significantly higher than people's expectations" for a shock in the U.S. economic system to be a success. It has to be large enough. "We're not big enough."
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Israel's Foreign Minister says that Israel does not want to fight Iran indefinitely
Israel does not want a 'never-ending war' with Iran and will coordinate with the United States on the end of the conflict, said Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Tuesday. He declined to give a public timeline on the end of the conflict. In its 11th day of combat, the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has engulfed much of the Middle East. Iranian attacks have hit neighbouring countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. Israel is also fighting Hezbollah, in Lebanon, as well as Iran. Saar, along with his German counterpart, told journalists in Jerusalem that they would continue to work until we and our partners decide that it is time to stop. He said, "We don't want an endless war." Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, said in Berlin earlier that Europe was becoming more concerned about the war. It appeared there was no plan in place to end it. Saar responded to a government question about what victory looks like by saying, "We want the existential threats to be removed,?for the long term, from Iran to Israel." He called Mojtaba Khamanei, the newly appointed supreme commander of Iran - the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first war day by Israeli forces - an extremist. Israel has said that it wants to end Iran's clerical regime by destroying the country's nuclear and missile programs, and creating conditions to allow Iranians to topple their rulers. Saar said that there is an opportunity to create conditions to allow Iranians to "regain freedom," while acknowledging it may not occur during the war. We must not waste this opportunity by delivering partial results. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is the first high-ranking official from outside the United States to visit Israel publicly since the start of the war. He said that he believed both Israel and Washington are open to a diplomatic resolution which could bring an end to the conflict. Wadephul stated that Tehran has made it clear that they are not prepared to accept any terms in a?solution?. (Reporting and Editing by Alexandra Hudson, Philippa Fletcher and Alexandra Hudson)
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Exxon to abandon New Jersey incorporation in favor of Texas homecoming
Exxon Mobil wants to abandon its corporate registrations in New Jersey and relocate in Texas, where its "headquarters" is located. This move could strengthen its defenses against climate activists and activist shareholders. Exxon made the announcement in a proxy file. If shareholders approve the move, Exxon will become the latest high-profile company to register in Texas, joining SpaceX, Tesla, and Coinbase. A new Texas law improved legal protections for business through several mechanisms. This included reducing shareholder litigation threats by allowing businesses to set stock ownership levels for lawsuits. The company stated in a filing that "the Board believes Texas legislators and judges who could make decisions affecting Exxon Mobil, are more familiar with the business and operations of the company." Exxon was at odds with activist investors in recent years, but CEO Darren Woods stated in an interview that the company did not intend to adopt provisions of Texas law?that allows companies to make shareholder proposals more difficult. Woods stated that "that's in no way influencing" the decision to move. "We are quite satisfied with the engagements we have had with our shareholders." Longtime environmental lawsuits have been filed against the top U.S. producer of oil, which is physically located in Spring, Texas. In 2022, officials in New Jersey will sue Exxon, Chevron, and other fossil fuel companies, claiming that these companies contributed to climate changes, forcing the state's budget to be slashed by billions to clean up following major natural disasters like Superstorm Sandy and hurricane Ida. The lawsuit was dismissed in 2017. Jill Fisch is a professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania. She said that incorporating in the state where a company has its headquarters could help executives gain the attention of politicians who can assist them with tax questions or other issues. She said that one way to show loyalty to your state and to get legislators to take notice of you would be to incorporate in your home state. Exxon has its roots in New Jersey dating back to the breakup Standard Oil in early 1900s. Its headquarters, however, have been in Texas since 1988. Exxon introduced a new program in September to prevent activist shareholder resolutions at annual meetings. The program allows retail investors to vote automatically according to the board's recommendation. The company said that individuals held nearly 40% of its shares, but only a quarter voted during the proxy season. They mainly supported the board. Texas is trying to strengthen its reputation as an ideal place for doing business. It has benefited from the fact that many companies are leaving states like Delaware, which was a popular destination for incorporation. Reporting by Sheila Dang from Houston and Ross Kerber from Boston. Nathan Crooks (Editing), Muralikumar Anantharaman, Mark Potter and Nathan Crooks.
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Exxon CEO: Exxon has evacuated all non-essential Middle East employees as operations are scaled back.
Exxon 'Mobil 'has evacuated non essential employees from its Middle East operations, CEO Darren Woods stated in an interview Tuesday as the U.S. and Israel war against Iran continues. He said that some operations were scaled back in order to maintain oil inventories as the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was being challenged. Exxon has a minority stake in oil and gas projects?in the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Woods stated that "our first priority is to ensure the safety of our people, so we evacuated those who were not critical or essential for?the operations we provided support for." After Iran threatened to attack any tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz - an important waterway that connects Iran and Oman - traffic through this area has been effectively stopped. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened on Monday to escalate the conflict with Iran if the country 'blocked oil shipments out of the Middle East. He also predicted that the conflict would be resolved quickly. Oil?producers are cutting production at some oilfields because storage capacity is running out. Woods stated that "the ability to'manage' inventory is very challenging, and many operations are pulling back just to manage the inventory levels as the logistics of the supply chain and?flow across the Strait gets worked out (with time)." According to Jefferies analysts, Exxon produces 20% of its oil and gas in the Middle East. TD Cowen reports that 60% of Exxon's liquefied gas business is based in the Middle East. Sheila Dang, reporting from Houston; editing by Chizu Nimiyama and Nathan Crooks
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Britain and allies support shipping through Strait of Hormuz
'Britain and its allies are working on a variety of options to support commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz despite iranian threats. The spokesman for Prime Minister Keir 'Starmer said that Tuesday, as the U.S. - Israel war against Iran is roiling oil prices. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has said that the war will end "soon." He also stated that the U.S. would escalate its attack if Iran attempted to block tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Downing Street read out a statement after speaking with the leaders of Germany, Italy and France late on Monday. They agreed that the "vital importance" of "freedom of Navigation" through the Strait was important and they "agreed in the future to work closely in response to 'Iranian Threats. When asked by reporters about the readout, the spokesperson said: "We are working with our allies to develop a variety of options that will support commercial shipping through the Strait. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Tuesday that they will not allow any oil to leave the Middle East unless U.S. attacks and Israeli attacks stop. Starmer's spokesperson stated that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband spoke to oil majors BP & Shell in recent days and added that safety of their vessels is their main concern. He said that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has liaised directly with Lloyd's of London to ensure operators have "appropriate insurance coverage" which includes cover for war and revolution. Charles Roxburgh, chairman of Lloyd's after meeting Reeves?Monday said that the insurance marketplace would work with Britain and the U.S. on "a comprehensive response to the current situation." In his meeting with Reeves, he reiterated Lloyd's confidence in our marine insurance market. "Our market has remained open during this time of increased risk and continues to support shipping and international trade," he stated. (Reporting and editing by Sarah Young, Sharon Singleton and Catarina demony)
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Sugar prices drop as Trump predicts a de-escalation of the Iran War
As U.S. president Donald Trump predicted that the Iran War could end soon, oil prices dropped around 7%. Dealers stated that the market's focus remained on how high energy prices might affect sugar production in Brazil, where mills can adjust their plants so they make more sugar or ethanol depending on the market?prices. Raw sugar futures were down 2% on the ICE exchange at 14.29 cents a lb. They had earlier fallen?nearly 3%. White sugar futures dropped 1.4% to $414.90 a metric tonne. Petrobras, the state-owned oil company in Brazil that supplies about 80% of gasoline to the country, has not yet increased the local prices. However, the longer the Iran conflict continues, the more likely it is they will. The Brazilian gasoline market has a major impact on the prices of biofuel ethanol. Cocoa futures rose in other commodities soft markets. Prices are expected to show a modest improvement by the end 2026, according to a poll. poll. London cocoa increased by 1.1%, to 2,383 lbs per ton, while New York cocoa grew 1.3%, to $3,335 per ton. Sources at the regulator and exporters said on Tuesday that the Ivory Coast Coffee and Cocoa Council had'sold' more than 400,000 tonnes of cocoa export contracts to local grinders within 10 days after exporters resumed purchasing for the'mid-crop. Arabica coffee dropped 1.1%, to $2.9370 a lb. Robusta coffee declined 1.5%, to $3.710 a ton.
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Germany's Merz sees no plan for bringing Iran war to swift end
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz highlighted growing concern in Europe about the U.S.-Israel war against Iran on Tuesday, saying that a "dangerous escalate" was taking place with "clearly no joint plan" to bring it to a halt. Merz's comments, which echoed those he made last week at the end of the week, followed Donald Trump's statement that the war would end "soon", but that the U.S. might escalate its attack if Iran tried to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Merz stated that Germany shares "many goals" with the U.S.-Israeli operation that killed Iran's Supreme leader Ali Khamanei. However, he added that "questions are arising each day, amid signs that a dangerous escalation is taking place." Merz and Czech Prime Minister Andrej Bábis held a press conference together in Berlin. "We do not want a war that never ends." "We have no interest in dissolving Iran's statehood, territorial integrity or economic viability," added he. He said that the world needed a "stable and viable Iran" as part of regional peace and security, in which Israel or other partners were not threatened. The remarks are a reflection of European concerns about 'the economic damage' that could be caused by a prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz through which a 'fifth of world oil' passes. They also reflect fears of 'disorder' that might follow a breakdown of Iran's institutions. He said that a scenario like the one we've seen in Libya, Iraq, or other countries in the area would harm us all. This affects our energy supply, security and perhaps also the migration situation. Reporting by James Mackenzie, Friederike Heine, Editing by Miranda Murray and Alexandra Hudson
McGeever: The 2007 subprime credit warnings are echoed in the alarms of private lenders.
Each financial market crisis differs, but they all rhyme. Parallels are emerging between the 'tremors' now rippling across private credit and the subprime housing in the U.S. that led to 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis.
It's not to say that a replay of the historic crash is imminent. There is a growing danger that the increasing stress in the private credit market - i.e., the lack of liquidity, the opaque pricing and the soaring redemptions – could spill?over into the public markets.
BlackRock, with its $14 trillion in assets under management, announced?on? Friday that it had limited withdrawals after an influx of redemption requests. Blackstone, an alternative asset manager, had announced a few days prior that it raised the redemption limit on its BCRED private-credit fund in order to meet record withdrawals.
These alarms are a result of a similar incident at Blue Owl, a smaller alternative asset manager, last month. Also, the bankruptcy of U.S. auto parts supplier First Brands, and Tricolor, formerly based in California, prompted Jamie Dimon, CEO at JPMorgan Chase, to say: "When you find one cockroach there will be more."
Investors who have a sense for history or were around during the 2000s may find this all a little familiar. BNP Paribas and Bear Stearns blocked withdrawals from U.S. Subprime Funds in 2007 or warned of their problems. This small risk grew into a global financial crisis.
The GFC did not?fully explode' until September 2008, when U.S. officials allowed Lehman Brothers go bankrupt. The crisis was building steadily over the past 18 months. Investors were alerted by the tremors in those subprime funds.
It is likely that the?reason for not allowing investors to access their money today will be similar to 2007's justifications: the value of the assets has probably dropped significantly and they would have to be sold to make up the required cash; the manager may be afraid to trigger a fire-sale in other assets to raise the needed cash; or the fund might be struggling to sell illiquid assets. It could be all three.
It is difficult to know what private credit assets are worth today because the market is opaque and illiquid. Price discovery is often lost, and the bearish assumptions win.
A similarity to subprime of 2007 is the belief that private credit, and more generally private markets, do not pose a risk systemic stability. We all know that this was wishful thinking at the time.
SUBPREME RHYME, DO NOT REPEAT
This time, is it different?
If we look at sheer size, probably. According to Investec, the mortgage-backed securities, which were the cause of the GFC in 2007, were worth $7.2 trillion, or 5% of all global securities. Private credit is currently worth $2 trillion. This represents less than 1% all global securities.
Unlike subprime credit in 2007, private lending is not as tightly regulated today, at least compared to traditional banks, so its true impact is difficult to determine.
Even mom-and-pop investors have become more active. According to Investec, retail investors will hold 16.6% of private credit funds by the end of 2024. This is up from just 5.5% at the beginning of 2020.
Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, said last week that private credit default rates will reach a new record of 9.2% by 2025. This is up from the previous high of 8.1% set in 2024.
Unsettlingly, none of these defaults included software companies. These firms have become major private lenders. Fears of disruption from artificial intelligence have impacted the software sector this year, causing shares in Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo to drop by up to 45%.
Private credit appears to have a skewed risk profile. The?U.S. The?U.S. economy is in a precarious position, with a shaky job market, the aftermath of the Middle East war, wild volatility on oil markets, and the threat of "stagflation" in modern times.
The consensus is that the fundamentals of the economy are strong and private credit is not large or integrated enough to sabotage GDP growth or asset markets. Barclays strategists note that private credit problems are present, but not large enough to send the U.S. economy into recession.
This is how subprime mortgages were viewed in 2007!
When the liquidity wave 'goes out', you can see who has been swimming naked. Recent events on the private credit markets suggest that more funds could be exposed soon.
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(source: Reuters)