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EU may maintain Russian oil price caps at $44 per barrel as a way to exert pressure on Moscow

EU diplomats told reporters on Monday that the European Commission could propose to leave the G7 price limit?on Russian oil unchanged when it reviews the price cap in July. This would be a 'effort to reduce Moscow's windfall resulting from the Iran War and the subsequent?oil shock.

This 'idea' was floated by the Commission in meetings with European Union representatives over the weekend. It could be included in their 21st package against Russia in response to its war in Ukraine. Last year, the Group of Seven nations, including allies and the U.S. agreed to a price cap that would move based on the market. This was done in order to make the system more effective. In order to reflect the lower average oil price, the countries reduced the price of a barrel from $60 to $47.60. They then revised it down to $44.10 in January. The price cap was set to be implemented in late 2022. Its goal was to reduce Russia’s revenue sources without causing an oil price spike. Third?countries are allowed to buy Russian oil at the maximum price by using Western shipping services and insurance. The cap still applies to up to 30% of the?seaborne Russian crude oil, while the remainder is transported by a shadow-fleet. The West wants to maintain pressure on Russia but Moscow has been enjoying some financial relief since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Prior to the beginning of the conflict on February 28, one-fifth the world's oil and natural gas flowed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources said that the Commission could also propose that future price reviews cannot exceed $60 per barrel, regardless of current average prices, given the outlook for sustained high prices throughout the rest of the year. Brent oil futures traded around $93 per barrel on Monday, and analysts have raised their average 2026 oil price predictions 40% since February to 'around $90 a barrel. This measure may be a compromise for the idea that was stalled of a complete ban on maritime services?on Russian Oil, which would have?ended the cap system. The EU countries adopted the legal basis of the ban as part of the previous sanctions package. However, they added the caveat that a decision on the phase-in will not be taken until further coordination with G7. Reporting by Julia Payne, Editing by Paul Simao

(source: Reuters)