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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to halt oil production increases after September.

Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to halt oil production increases after September.
Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to halt oil production increases after September.

On August 2, seven members of OPEC+ will meet.

Sources say that the group will increase its output quotas for September by 188,000 bpd.

Source: OPEC+ requires the result of the oil capacity review to decide on 2027 quotas

By Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON, 28 July - OPEC+ will likely pause its 'gradual oil production hikes' after September, for?the rest of the year, according to four sources, because it needs to hold additional discussions before deciding on its output quotas in 2027. The pause will mark the end of several month of production hikes that were mostly on paper because the Iran War forced Middle East countries to reduce exports.

Some members of the alliance are pushing for higher targets, while others like the International Energy Agency predict that supply could exceed demand.

GROUP'S PRINCIPALS MEMBERS MEET?ON AUGUUST 2 Sources from OPEC+ told us last week that the core members of the group -- Saudi Arabian, Russia, Iraqi, Kuwait, Algerian, Kazakhstan, and Oman -- are likely to increase their output target for September by 188,000 barrels a day at a meeting on August 2, which is similar to what they did in June, July, and August.

The September increase 'would complete a phasing back of a 1,65 million bpd cut in supply originally agreed upon in 2023 when OPEC still included United Arab emirates.

One of the sources stated that there would be no further changes until the end of the year. The current production levels will remain unchanged until January 2027, when the new quotas are implemented.

Sources spoke anonymously and stated that no final decision has been made. Neither OPEC nor Russian authorities responded immediately to requests for comments.

INTERNATIONAL AND EXTERNAL FIELDS AT PLAY

OPEC+’s?output strategy for 2027 is likely to be influenced both by external and internal factors.

The group still has a layer of cuts to be implemented until the end?2026. This is a 2 million bpd cut that dates back to 2022 and applies for most members. OPEC+ is also completing a'review' of member oil production capacities to be used as a baseline for 2027, from which quotas will be set. The group must wait until the results of this review are released before deciding on the next steps. Iraq and other members of the group are also pushing for increased individual quotas in order to reflect their higher production capacity. The IEA's outlook for the oil market in 2027 is also important. It expects a surplus, depending on whether or not the Strait of?Hormuz will be reopened.

OPEC+ is a group of 21 countries that includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and allies.

Only seven countries have participated in the monthly management of production. The UAE was excluded until it left. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar; editing by Kirby Donovan and Jan Harvey

(source: Reuters)