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JP Morgan has said it does not have a clear endgame for the oil market as the Iran conflict drags out

JP Morgan stated on Thursday that they do not have a baseline view of oil markets for the first time since the US-Israeli War on Iran.

Analysts at the bank stated that they "simply do not know how to model endgame."

The note noted that JP Morgan assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be a few economic thresholds the U.S. government wouldn't cross. However, six months later, these lines had been crossed and no exit strategy was in sight.

The bank stated that gasoline is now $4.37 per gallon, and oil has risen above $100 per barrel. The bank also stated that US diesel prices had reached an all-time-high of $6.31 per gallon as we head into the winter season, when demand is at its peak. Meanwhile, inventories are at their lowest levels ever.

JP Morgan estimated Brent’s fair value for September at $90 per barrel, compared with current prices of around $106, which suggests that markets are pricing in further supply disruptions beyond the estimated 10,000,000 barrels per day.

The?note referred to the mounting dangers in the Middle East including recent attacks on Saudi export routes and threats to shipping through Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The?note also noted the continued attacks against Russian refinery infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. This underscores persistent geopolitical threats to global energy supply.

JP Morgan stated that despite the'scale of supply disruptions', oil prices haven't risen as much as expected, because consumers and governments have relied less upon inventory reductions.

Since the start of the conflict, global inventories of crude oil and refined products has fallen by around 555 million barrels. This is only about one third of the decline that the bank predicted earlier this year.

The?bank reported that global oil demand is about 4.4 millions barrels per day lower than it was a year ago, which helps offset the supply losses.

The market was able to absorb a massive disruption in supply without any sustained increase in crude prices by relying more on destruction of demand and less on stock draws. Brent oil has been averaging $94 since the conflict began," it said.

The International Energy Agency announced last week that global oil demand and supply are expected to fall further this year than was previously anticipated.

OPEC, on the other hand, still believes that world oil demand will grow in this year, despite lowering its forecast for a 5th consecutive month. OPEC expects the demand to rise by 380,000 bpd by 2026.

Bank officials said that significant inventories are still available, especially in China, Europe and Japan, which provides a buffer to a long-term disruption. This could reduce the need to raise?crude oil prices substantially in the near term.

It warned that, if the Middle East supply disruptions continue, oil prices may rise later this year, as inventories will decline and the market will become increasingly dependent on destruction of demand to maintain equilibrium.

The bank stated that there was still enough dry powder in the market to hold prices down for now.

(source: Reuters)