Iran

The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the recent escalation of hostilities between the U.S., Iran, and other countries could change its forecast of an oil surplus next year. Global supply increased in June after the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, but it still lagged behind pre-war levels. Last month, global oil markets were given some relief as a peace deal between the U.S.A. and Iran allowed the opening of Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this strait had effectively cut off up to 14 million barrels of crude per day during the height of the biggest oil supply...

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran the United States would likely launch additional strikes on Wednesday night, following the attacks of the previous day. "I'll give a little warning. We're going hit them hard tonight," Trump said to reporters before his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO Summit in Turkey. Trump had said to reporters in Ankara that a memorandum-of-understanding between the United States & Iran, which served as an initial ceasefire agreement, was "over". He did not say that Washington would go back to full-fledged warfare, and it was not clear if the negotiations to turn...

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, said that the?new U.S. attacks on Iran? were "absolutely needed" The?U.S. The?U.S. Rutte said to reporters in Ankara, before the NATO summit. "When there is a ceasefire and Iran basically violates the ceasefire I think that it is absolutely crucial that the U.S. react forcefully." The European leaders will try to persuade Donald Trump to commit to the alliance after he renewed his disagreements with them regarding the Iran War and Greenland. Rutte stated that there was no doubt about the "complete commitment" of the United States to NATO, which he added also worked to...

On Tuesday, the United States revoked a general license which authorized the sale of Iranian crude oil. A U.S. official had warned that Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz are "wholly unacceptable" and that they will be met with consequences after attacks on tankers along the strategic waterway. The announcement led to an increase of more than 5% in oil prices. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would allow Iran to wind down its oil transactions until July 17, which were allowed under the license now revoked. An official from the United States said that despite this latest escalation,...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline'retailers' to lower prices in celebration of the U.S.'s 250th birthday, reinforcing 'Trump's message with a warning 'we're monitoring' Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, especially during the 250th anniversary of the?Oil Industry, because we are watching." Bessent repeated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big issues." "If Retailers...

Oil prices increased on Monday following days of titt-for-tat attacks?by the United States and Iran?in the Middle East, which highlighted the fragility of the interim peace agreement and once again slowed down energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 52 cents or 0.672% to $72.51 per barrel at 2313 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 71 cents or 1.03%, trading at $69.94. Brent crude dropped 10.6% last weekend, its third consecutive weekly decline. Crude shipments through the Strait increased last week to the highest level since February, when the U.S. - Israel conflict with...

International Monetary Fund?said Thursday that it had seen energy and commodities prices drop since?the U.S. and Iran agreement to?halt?hostilities and reopen?the Strait of?Hormuz.?But it will take some time for prices to return to normal and Gulf trade to resume. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a press briefing that the Fund would decide on whether or not to stick with the three growth scenarios that it had presented in April, which were dependent on the outcome of the Iran war. Kozack said that as the Strait of Hormuz was closed in May and benchmark oil prices remained above $100 per...

Under the interim agreement to end the war with Iran, the U.S. began lifting some sanctions. However, it will be difficult for any comprehensive agreement to unravel the tangled webs of restrictions that restrict the country's trade and activities. It is for this reason that any attempt to lift the sanctions against Iran may take many years, and foreign investment could be slow to return. WHEN WILL THE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN BE RELEASED? Since decades, the U.S. has imposed sanctions, trade 'embargos' and asset freezings on Iran over its nuclear program, human rights record, and support of groups in the...

The U.S. Treasury Department approved the production, sale and delivery of Iranian oil on Monday. This was a promise made by Washington and Tehran in an agreement last week. The general license announced by the two sides as they continue their talks to reach a final agreement on peace allows for the production, sale and delivery of crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products with Iranian origin through August 21. In a recent post on X, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran had 'committed' to allowing free and open passage through the Strait of Hormuz as well as allowing?International Atomic...

Mediators said that U.S. officials and Iranian officials had made "encouraging progress" during a first round of discussions in Switzerland, which ended early Monday morning, despite the tensions over Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar said the parties agreed on a roadmap to a final deal to end their war within 60 days. This was despite the initial tension as 'Tehran' again closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to restart attacks against Iran. The two sides said they had agreed on a mechanism that would end the fighting between U.S.-ally Israel and...

On Sunday, the United States and Iran will begin 'peace talks' in Switzerland. U.S. officials have disputed Iranian claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iranian state media reported that high-level Iranian officials arrived in Switzerland to hold peace talks with the U.S. The U.S. and Iran had agreed on a 60-day truce while negotiations are taking place. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, despite the U.S. Military stating that commercial vessels have continued to operate in the waterway. These developments could complicate negotiations between the two sides to implement an...

The local RFE/RL branch reported that Tajikistan has 60 days worth of fuel reserves. It is also in discussions with nearby countries to secure future supplies. This comes amid acute fuel shortages in Russia, a major trading partner. Radio Ozodi quoted the minister Daler Juma as saying "The export of some types?of petroleum products is still continuing from Russia to Tajikistan." At the same time, some difficulties continue. The broadcaster quoted the minister as saying that Tajikistan worked with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran to ensure it had the fuel it needed. Tajikistan is a small country with a population of...

Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly roundup of what the Open Interest team was reading, watching, and listening to. This week's picks include the impact of war on?energy security and food, China's ability to leverage critical minerals, and World Cup drama. We'll be reading RON BOUSSO's ROI Energy Columnist's paper, which examines the global impacts of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's oil refinery infrastructure. The analysis provides great detail about the extent of the damage. CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia 'Commodities and Energy. The Iran War threatened to cause a food shortage. The...

Oil prices rose on Thursday, after the U.S. launched new?strikes in Iran. This dented hopes of an end to the Iran war, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint that supplies one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war. Brent crude futures were up 78 cents or 1% at $78.8 per barrel as of 0054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 74 cents or 1.01% to $74.26 per barrel by 0054 GMT. WTI and Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 in the post-settlement trading on Wednesday,...

Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a 'further increase in their 'output targets for August, when they meet?Sunday. This will add supply at a moment of falling prices, as the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. All sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity, said that 'no decision has been finalized. Seven members of OPEC+ (which groups OPEC, Russia and other producers) have increased their 'output quotas between...

Indian sources in the refining industry said that several middlemen offered discounted Iranian oil to Indian'refiners' as Tehran tries to speed up sales following Washington’s temporary waiver of sanctions. After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days, allowing for a limited window to resume energy trade. Sources said that the Iranian state oil producer had allocated oil to Indian refiners through NIOC and intermediaries. "Apart from NIOC several traders contact us to sell Iranian?oil. One of the refining source said, "My priority is to give NIOC a chance."...

Tehran will gain billions from the 60-day reprieve of U.S. Sanctions announced on Monday. However, unwinding four decades of restrictions could take many years. The question is whether a U.S. interim deal with Iran will translate into lasting economic benefits, given the complexity of dismantling sanctions that encompass U.S. law, international measures, and private sector risk concerns. Since the late 1970s, the United Nations, U.S., and European Union have imposed "sanctions, trade embargoes, and frozen assets" over Iran's nuke program, human right violations, and support of militant groups in the region. According to a memorandum signed last week by the...

Local media reported that South Korea will maintain its current fuel prices until there is more clarity about the U.S. Iran agreement and its impact upon global oil markets. Yang Gi-wook a senior official in the industry ministry, told a briefing the government would decide if the next round of ceilings will be set after monitoring the progress towards 'ending the Middle East Conflict, the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the movements of global oil prices. Yang said that the current price caps are expected to last for two to four weeks. However, it is too early to predict...

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, made his comments at the end of a G7 summit in France on Wednesday. He said he didn't want an economic disaster that could have resulted from a prolonged war in the Middle East. "The one thing I did not want to see was an economic catastrophe. Trump said to reporters at the resort on Evian-les-Bains' lake that if you had kept going with this, "that could have happened." The?U.S. The?U.S. The conflict, which began on February 28, with U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, and has since spiraled out of control, has caused energy prices to...

After the U.S. and Iran deal to end the Middle East conflict, spot premiums for crude oil in Asia are back to their pre-war level. However, caution over how soon normal shipping will resume is keeping the oil markets afloat. Prices fell across the board after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that a preliminary deal had been signed. Details have not yet been released, and the U.S. as well as Iran say that a permanent ceasefire is still being negotiated. Dubai's premium for swaps on Middle East crude returned to its pre-war level of $2.06 a barrel on Monday. This...

The U.S. is entering the peak driving season of summer just as gasoline prices are rising. A tight supply situation has been created by a combination of a strong domestic demand, and a surge in fuel exports. The soaring summer demand for American automobiles has not deterred U.S. refiners, who are increasingly focusing on lucrative jet and diesel fuel production in order to fill global shortages due to shipping disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz. This critical passageway is responsible for?nearly one fifth of all global oil flows. It has been effectively closed since the start of the Iran War....

Hengli Petrochemical in China, which was sanctioned by the U.S. because it allegedly purchased Iranian oil, bought at least 2 million barrels of West African crude and is seeking more mainstream supply. Six people have said that Hengli is seeking to buy oil from sources not sanctioned by Washington. The company was penalised in April for buying Iranian oil and denied doing so. Hengli, a privately owned refinery that operates in Dalian (northeast China) and produces 400,000 barrels per day, inquired recently about purchasing cargoes from West Africa and non-Iranian Middle Eastern oil?for deliveries starting June, according to multiple sources....

Donald Trump on a Wednesday appeared to be embracing data that showed a rise in inflation of more than 4%. He told reporters that he "loved the inflation" and reiterated his belief prices would fall once the Iran War ended. When asked about U.S. data that showed consumer inflation increased in May at the fastest rate in three years, and if it could hurt his fellow Republicans months before November's midterm elections, Trump replied: "I love inflation." Trump then explained that he approved a plan to secretly move oil tanks through the Strait of Hormuz due to concerns about higher...