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US Senate Parliamentarian: Oil and gas projects cannot avoid environmental review
A provision in the massive U.S. budget and tax bill that Congress is finalizing cannot be passed unless at least 60 Senate members vote for it. Elizabeth MacDonough is a Senate parliamentarian whose job is to ensure lawmakers follow the proper legislative procedures, like requiring 60 votes out of 100 instead of a simple majoritiy. The parliamentarian examines the mega-bill budget to make sure it adheres to the Byrd Rule. This rule, dating back decades, prohibits large pieces of legislation from including provisions that are "extraneous to the federal budget". MacDonough's list of problematic provisions adds to the hurdles facing Republican lawmakers. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson, along with administration officials, are pushing Republican legislators to pass the OBBB Act before President Donald Trump signs it into law on July 4. Independence Day. The MP has stated that the provisions of OBBB which deem offshore oil-and-gas projects automatically compliant with National Environmental Policy Act would require a greater vote threshold. The parliamentarian said that the controversial provision championed Senator Mike Lee, which would authorize the selling of millions of acres of Bureau of Land Management lands and U.S. Forest Service land should be removed from this bill. She also suggested that the provision that allows the construction of an Alaskan mining road to go ahead. She also highlighted a provision allowing gas exporters pay for their projects to become "in the nation's interest," which is a lengthy determination normally made by the federal governments; a section requiring oil and gas leases be issued within 90 days to successful bidders and another that removed the Interior Secretary's ability to reduce fees on federal land for renewable energy. Thune has repeatedly stated that he won't overrule a parliamentarian. He told reporters on Monday that this is "a process we must go through." They're working on it. "We're counter-offering in some cases as we flag things," he added. John Cornyn, the Senator from Texas, told reporters Monday that "we don't yet know what will be the final product." We're going keep trying to maximize the benefits of reconciliation. The parliamentarian stated last week that a proposed rollback of the Environmental Protection Agency’s new emission limits for medium and heavy-duty trucks like delivery trucks in the OBBB and a provision allowing companies to pay a fee to opt out from the environmental permit review can’t pass without 60 vote. Thune hopes to have the Senate begin action this week, and pass the bill by the weekend. The bill will then be sent back to the House to receive final approval. Senate Democrats have said that they will continue to make sure the OBBB is thoroughly scrutinized. "Democrats won't stand by as Republicans try to circumvent reconciliation rules in order to sell public lands for tax breaks to billionaires," said Senator Jeff Merkeley.
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Gold Reserve asks for clarification on US license protecting Citgo
Gold Reserve filed an urgent request to a Delaware court asking for clarification on a License Venezuela-owned U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum will pay its creditors even if a court auction is held, the company announced on Tuesday. The Delaware court has advanced to Complete the Auction Citgo Holdings, the parent company of Citgo, is offering shares to up to 15 creditors to compensate them for defaults on debts and expropriations. The winner of the bidding round is expected to be chosen by July 2. Gold Reserve Canada, one of the creditors participating in the auction, and also a buyer, has asked the court to invite Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to confirm and clarify whether they intend to continue to protect Citgo against creditors after the anticipated closing of the sale process. The final hearing of this process is scheduled for the middle of August. Venezuelan opposition leaders asked Washington to suspend this auction. The administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro criticized it, calling it a theft of sovereign assets.
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EU envoys are expecting to resolve the blockage of new Russia sanctions by this week
The European Union said that they expected to reach an agreement during a summit of the EU this week regarding an 18th package against Russia. Slovakia and Hungary use it as a bargaining tool for concessions about Russian energy. The European Commission proposed the package to encourage Russia to negotiate with Ukraine a ceasefire after EU leaders demanded "massive sanction" in May. The package aims to target more of Russia's revenues from energy by listing its banks and destroying its shadow tanker fleet. Hungary and Slovakia announced on Monday that they will not support new sanctions unless the proposal to prohibit imports of Russian oil by 2027 is changed. The ban will be discussed by EU leaders at the European Council in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Ignacy Niemczycki is a Polish EU minister. He said, "We're waiting to see the result of the summit on Thursday, and I think that the conversation will be easier afterward." "We remain optimistic." Slovak PM Robert Fico, however, reiterated that a vote be postponed until Slovakia's concerns about the energy ban have been addressed. He also said he would block sanctions if Slovakia did not address its concerns. Slovakia claims that shutting down the Russian pipeline will increase prices, particularly in central Europe. Last week, Economy Minister Denisa Sakova stated that the country also wanted a mechanism for capping EU transit fees and guarantees in the event of a shortage. A diplomat who is familiar with the talks said that Slovakia and Hungary are seeking "different treatment" for countries which have landlocked borders. One diplomat said: "Hungary's not a big problem." If Slovakia lets go, then so will Hungary." SPP, the state-owned gas company in Slovakia, said that Gazprom could demand compensation even if SPP declared force majeure if EU imports are banned. SPP's Russian gas contract, which ends in 2034, is valued at approximately 16 billion euros ($18.6billion) at current prices. The lawyers have warned that it would be difficult to eliminate claims if the Commission went ahead with its plan of using trade measures to ban the product instead of formal sanctions which require unanimous approval. A spokesperson for the European Commission said: "We've been working very closely" with member states that are most affected by the phaseout. $1 = 0.8623 Euros (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey, Julia Payne, Jan Strupczewski Jan Lopatka, Marek Strzelecki)
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Wall Street to open at higher levels after Israel-Iran truce
Wall Street's major indexes are on course for a higher opening on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran. This announcement calmed investor nerves following the 12-day conflict, which hurt global risk assets as well as sparked inflation fears. Investors also analyzed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which reiterated the central bank’s approach of waiting and watching interest rates while tariff-driven pressures on prices become apparent. There's no doubt that Trump has pushed for interest rate cuts. "I don't believe Powell will budge," said Peter Cardillo. Chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. As supply concerns eased due to the Middle East conflict, oil prices fell by a record two weeks. Before the bell, U.S. oil prices fell as well. Chevron and Exxon both dropped more than 1%. Defense stocks Lockheed Martin fell 1%, and RTX Corp dropped 1.2%. Trump's call to a truce was a dramatic turnaround after the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites at the weekend, and Iran responded by firing missiles into a U.S. military base in Qatar. Israel Katz, Israel's Defence Minister, said that Iranian missiles had been fired in violation and ordered his military to strike Tehran as a response. Trump accused both nations of violating the truce. But optimism about the ceasefire is what has kept stocks supported thus far. At 8:56 a.m. At 08:56 a.m. ET, Dow Eminis had gained 268 points or 0.62%. S&P 500 Eminis had increased 41.25 points or 0.68%. Nasdaq Eminis have gained 208.75 or 0.95%. The benchmark S&P 500 remains approximately 2% below all-time highs. Powell has received Trump's criticisms over not cutting interest rates. The President hinted at firing Powell or naming his successor in the near future. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank didn't have to lower interest rates anytime soon because companies are planning to increase prices due to increased import taxes, and the job market remains strong. Michelle Bowman, Fed vice chair, endorsed the policy easing in July. Market participants expect at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points before the end of the year, with September being the first. Later in the day, several central bank officials will also speak, including Fed Board President Michael Barr and Fed Minneapolis president Neel Kahkari. The consumer confidence data for the month of June will be released at 10:00 am. ET. Later this week, the Commerce Department will release its final report on GDP for the first quarter and Personal Consumption Spending (PCE). Tesla shares led the gains with a gain of nearly 2%. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose by 1.2% and Amazon.com gained 1.6%. After bitcoin reached a new high, shares of crypto companies increased. Coinbase Global rose 1%, and Strategy gained 1.6%. FedEx, the package delivery company, was up by nearly 1.2% before its quarterly results were due to be released after the closing bell. (Reporting and editing by Devika Syamnath in Bengaluru)
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McGeever: Bowman's turn and oil plunge challenges Fed's hawkish stance
In recent years, the financial markets have consistently underestimated the Federal Reserve’s willingness to reduce interest rates. The latest Fed talk, softer economic data and the dramatic drop in oil prices could indicate that they are right this time. Last week, the central bank appeared to snuff out traders' hopes of a dovish steering. The Fed's summary economic projections maintained its median "dot plot" projection of two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year. It was a close call and the Fed lowered its 2026 forecast from two rate cuts to just one. In the days following, it was widely believed that the hawkish stance of policymakers reflected their desire to anchor inflation expectations. The traders' expectations for rate reductions this year dropped to less than 50 basis points. This reading may be premature. First, the fear of rising energy costs due to conflict in Middle East has disappeared. Oil prices have fallen back to their previous levels, despite the fact that they rose by as much as 17 percent in the days following the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13. The price of oil is falling and, late Monday night, U.S. president Donald Trump announced the two countries had reached a ceasefire. The Fed has made a number of dovish remarks in the past few days, and they are not only from the usual suspects. This suggests that the U.S. Central Bank may be closer than previously thought to lowering rates. NEGATIVE SURPRISE It is not impossible to justify a more dovish approach. Fundamentally, the U.S. economy is deteriorating. Citi's U.S. Economic Surprises Index has been declining since the end May, and is now a negative number. This means that economic data are underperforming expectations. It fell to its lowest level since September of last year. It is important to be cautious when analyzing the economic surprise indexes following significant movements, because initial expectations could have been overly pessimistic. The current shift is a valid red flag. We look at the surprise factor and how it compares to consensus expectations. Citi's Stuart Kaiser points out that both have fallen into negative territory. The 'hard activity data' index is also now negative. What is 180 DEGREE Turn? Michelle Bowman, Fed Vice Chair of Supervision, surprised investors by saying that she would vote for a rate reduction as early as July if the inflation pressures remained contained. Bowman's remarks are important. She hasn't spoken about the economy for over two months. In March, she said that the labor market would be a more significant factor in policymaking. Since her appointment as Fed governor in 2018, she has been consistently one of the most hawkish members on the Federal Open Market Committee. The move came after Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that a rate reduction next month was on the table. Waller is one of the FOMC’s most dovish members. This is not surprising. But traders and investors should take note if a FOMC hawk such as Bowman now sings from the same hymnal. Cynics might question the timing of Bowman’s apparent 180-degree turnaround, which comes just as Trump intensifies his attacks against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over not reducing interest rates. There's no evidence that political pressure was at work. The recent drop in oil prices will also help her case. It fell 7% on Monday, the largest drop in three years. It was more impressive when you consider that it opened the day at 6% and reached a five-month peak in response to Saturday's U.S. nuclear bombing. The price of crude oil did not increase on an annual basis following Israel's initial strike against Iran on June 13. Oil prices have been falling since January and are down by 20% on a year-over-year basis. It's not energy prices that are causing inflation to be sticky. Waller - and Bowman - will love this. It is possible that traders are not overestimating the Fed’s willingness to reduce rates this time. They could be on the right track with their bets that 125 bps will be eased by the end next year. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Qatari PM: After missile salvo on US base, Qatari-Iran relations are damaged but will recover.
Qatar's Prime Minister said Tuesday that the Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in the Gulf Arab State had damaged relations between Qatar and Iran. However, he expressed hope that they would "return to normal" at some point. Iran fired missiles at Al Ubeid Air Base on Monday in response to the U.S. involvement in Israel's war against Iran. No one was injured after Tehran provided advance warning. A ceasefire Washington announced the news a few hours later. Qatar, located just across the Gulf of Aden from Iran, is often used as a regional mediator, such as between Iran and the United States, or between Israel and Hamas during the ongoing Gaza War. The Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said at a Doha press conference that the incident would definitely leave a scar on the relationship with Iran. However, I hope everyone will learn the lesson by then and not violate or undermine this type of neighbourhood relationship. He said: "The partnership between Qatar, the U.S. and Iran is growing stronger... I hope that the good relationship will return to normal with Iran as soon as possible." Al Thani said that Qatar had worked with Iran to facilitate a ceasefire at Washington's request. He said: "We hope that the ceasefire will be maintained as agreed, and we urge the U.S. to negotiate with Iran in order to reach a diplomatic solution which Qatar has been seeking for years." He said that Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, expressed regret to Qatar's ruling emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani in a telephone call that Tehran's intended target for retaliation against U.S. aerial strikes was a Qatari military base.
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Growing lettuce with fog in Chile's Atacama desert, the world's driest.
Researchers and growers in Chile's Atacama desert, the driest place on earth, are trying to capture moisture from fog to grow lemons and lettuces. They use a net that catches the drops. Near Chanaral, in the Atacama desert, where there are areas that have not seen rain for years, Orlando Rojas told reporters, "We grow hydroponic lettuce completely with fog water." "We've tried other crops and they didn't work, so we tended to do lettuce." Researchers at the UC Atacama Desert Center have launched a web-based mapping tool that allows anyone to see the locations of areas in the country with the potential to harvest fog-water. They are trying to cultivate these arid regions. Camilo Del Rio is the director of UC Atacama Desert Center. He said, "We know that it has a lot of potential. We know that we can use it as a solution and an option for different water needs on different scales in different areas where there are significant water shortages." The system is used to collect and store water in tanks in the midst of barren, rocky hills, and white, dry sand. A mesh is suspended between two poles and it intercepts the moisture in the air. Rojas said that the water collected from this region was also being used to grow lemon trees. This water resource is the source of life. We haven't stopped since we first learned about the project. It is essential for human survival." Mario Segovia from the fog-catching team also said that the collected water from moisture in air is pure. He said, "The harvest looks good, it is a super-healthy food, with pure organic nutrients." They're in water with nutrients because fog-catcher water has no chlorine or minerals. (Reporting and writing by Rodrigo Gutierrez, editing by Nia William)
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Copper reaches two-week high due to softer dollar, and Iran-Israel cease-fire
The dollar dropped and the yuan rose after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $9,743.50 per metric tonne by 1013 GMT, after reaching its highest level since June 11, when it reached $9,760.50. Market attention focused on the continued outflow of copper from warehouses registered with LME. The combination of large cash copper contracts, warrants (title documents conferring ownership) and other factors has led to an increase in the premiums on near-term contracts. The premium for cash copper contracts over the 3-month forward On Tuesday, the price of a ton dropped to $249. It closed at $280 Monday, its highest level since November 2021. This indicates tightness in LME copper market. The LME approved warehouses have seen a 65% drop in copper inventories since mid-February, with 94,675 tonnes, the lowest level since August 2023. Some traders moved metal to the United States, hoping to profit from the premium offered by COMEX copper contracts over the LME benchmark, while Washington continues to examine potential tariffs against copper imports. Metal traders said that the metal was dripping out of warehouses daily. The LME copper price is lower than Comex, so the LME system can't attract delivery. Aluminium fell 0.3% on the LME to $2,581 per ton, as the Iran-Israel ceasefire lowered oil prices, and the Middle East aluminium producers no longer faced an immediate threat in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Aluminium, whose smelting requires large amounts energy, reached a three-month peak of $2,654.50 Monday. LME lead increased 1.1% to 2,024.50 after reaching $2,025.5, its highest level since March 31, while zinc rose 0.9% to 2,711 after touching its highest level since June 4. Nickel gained 1.3%, to $14.990. Tin fell 0.1%, to $32,670. (Reporting and editing by David Goode)
China's heavy dependence on Iranian oil
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, accounting for approximately 13.6% of the purchases made by the world’s biggest crude importer this year. This leaves Beijing exposed to any disruption in supply caused by conflict in the Middle East.
Beijing, the world's largest oil importer and buyer from Venezuela, has been able to reduce its import bill by billions of dollars in recent years.
How much Iranian oil does China buy?
China purchases 90% of the Iranian oil shipped, but this is limited due to U.S. Sanctions aimed at cutting funding for Tehran's Nuclear Programme.
According to Kpler, China bought an average of 1,38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day in the first half of this year.
According to Kpler, China imported about 14.6% more than it did last year in Iran.
Who are the main Chinese buyers of Iranian crude?
Teapots are independent Chinese refiners that cluster mainly in Shandong Province. They buy Iranian crude because of the discount it offers compared to barrels from non-sanctioned countries.
Teapots are a small part of the Chinese refinery industry, and their margins can be negative. Recently, a tepid demand for refined products has led to a squeeze on these margins.
Traders and experts claim that China's large state oil companies have not bought Iranian oil in 2018/2019.
How much cheaper is Iranian oil?
Three traders reported that Iranian light crude was trading at $3.30 to $35 a barrel less than ICE Brent, for July deliveries. This compares to discounts of about $2.50 in June. Teapots slowed the buying, and sellers were looking to reduce inventories.
According to traders, Iranian oil is currently trading at a discount of $7-8 per barrel compared to Middle East oil that has not been sanctioned.
DO U.S. Sanctions Have an Impact?
Washington re-imposed sanctions on Tehran in 2018 and, since Donald Trump took office in January, his administration has imposed new sanctions against Iran's oil industry.
Reports state that Trump's sanctions include penalties on three Chinese Teapots. This has caused several independent mid-sized businesses to reduce their purchases, fearing being designated.
According to one trader, non-sanctioned Iranian oil has replaced around 100,000 bpd in China this year.
What is Beijing's position on the Iran Oil Trade?
Beijing defends its trade relations with Iran and rejects unilateral sanctions.
The traders who import Iranian oil into China usually label it as coming from another country, like Malaysia, which is a major hub for transshipment.
Since July 2022, Chinese customs records have not indicated any oil being shipped from Iran. Reporting by Asia Energy Team, written by Tony Munroe and edited by Saad sayeed
(source: Reuters)