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Oil prices steady as the market weighs Venezuela and Russia supply risks

Oil prices steady as the market weighs Venezuela and Russia supply risks
Oil prices steady as the market weighs Venezuela and Russia supply risks

The oil prices remained stable on Tuesday, after rising by more than 2% the previous session. The U.S. announced that it may sell the Venezuelan crude they seized. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attacks against Russian vessels and piers increased fears of supply disruption.

Brent crude futures fell by 6 cents or 0.1% to $62.01 a barrel at 0440 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of West Texas and Texas Intermediate crudes, fell 9 cents or 0.16% to $57.92.

Brent's daily performance was the best in two months, and WTI rose to its highest level since November 14.

In a recent note, Priyanka?Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova said that crude oil markets were grinding through the last weeks of 2025 - with prices largely subdued. This reflects a tug-of war between persistently bearish fundamentals, and intermittently bullish headlines.

She said that while prices showed modest rebounds in geopolitical headlines through 2025, a broader narrative points to an imbalance of sluggish supply and sluggish demands.

Overall, the trend is weaker as structural supply concerns overshadow short-term risk-off rallies.

The markets are cautious, as traders balance geopolitical risk against the forecasts for ample supply by early 2026. This leaves prices vulnerable to any prolonged disruptions.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said on Monday that the U.S. could keep or sell oil it has seized in recent weeks off the coasts of Venezuela. This is part of his campaign of pressure against Venezuela, including a "blockade", of oil tankers subject to sanctions, entering and exiting the country.

Barclays stated in a Monday note that oil markets would likely be well-supplied in H1 26 even if Venezuelan exports fell to zero in the near future.

Barclays, however, estimates that the global oil surplus in 2026 will be reduced to just 700,000 barrels a day. A prolonged disruption would also tighten up the market, reducing recent stock builds.

Russia and Ukraine have been attacking each other's Black Sea facilities, which is a crucial export route for both countries.

In the second attack in less than 24 hour, Russian forces attacked Ukraine's Black Sea Port of Odesa on Monday night and damaged port facilities and an entire ship.

Authorities in the region of Krasnodar, Russia, said that a Ukrainian drone attack caused damage to?two vessels and two piers, as well as a fire, in a village.

Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics. It is focusing on the shadow fleet of oil tankers, which are attempting to bypass sanctions against Russia during the almost four-year-old war. (Reporting from Anjana Anil, Bengaluru; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing done by Sonali and Neil Fullick.)

(source: Reuters)