Middle East








Energy Markets

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas

Crude futures turn positive on continued Hormuz closure

Analysts were cautious, however, as they feared that the weekend could bring about unexpected changes to the war status two weeks after its start. Brent futures were up $1.59 or 1.58% to $102.05 a barrel at 11:35 AM CDT (1635 GMT), pointing towards a weekly gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), for April, gained $1.15 or 1.2% to $96.88 per barrel. This was also a week-to-week increase. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. We're about to enter another weekend, where this could be over by Monday. We could also see that the war continues and...

Oil & Gas

France and Italy begin talks with Iran on the passage of the Hormuz; Italy denies FT reports

France and?Italy opened talks with Iran on Friday to?negotiate a deal that would guarantee safe passage of?their vessels through?the Strait of?Hormuz. However, Italy denied this report. Since the U.S. began its strikes against Iran on February 28, shipping in the Gulf, and along the Strait of Hormuz - which carries a fifth of all the oil on the planet - has been at a standstill. Global oil prices have soared to levels not seen since the year 2022. The FT reported that France is one of the European nations engaged in talks with Tehran while Italy sought to contact the...

Oil & Gas

JP Morgan expects crude oil supply to drop by 12 million barrels per day as a result of the tanker ban.

JPMorgan stated in a Friday note that the crude oil supply cut is on track to hit 12 million barrels of oil per day. This will intensify deficits on physical markets, as tanker movement through a key Middle Eastern waterway faces a two-week interruption. The bank stated that "Commercial Tanker Traffic remains extremely Limited, with most vessels currently Iranian and likely heading to China." It added that although cargoes departing the Gulf prior to the shutdown are still arriving but new shipments have mostly stopped. Supplies to Asia could run out next week while Europe bound flows are likely stop...

Oil & Gas

The biggest global oil supply disruptions ever

International Energy Agency stated that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz caused the biggest disruption in global oil markets history. The agency said supply is expected to drop by around 8 million barrels per day or 8% in March. In response, the member countries of the agency agreed to release 400 million barrels from their strategic stockpiles in order to stabilize oil prices and compensate Middle East production loss. Here's a list of previous oil supply disruptions: The 1973-1974 Arab Oil Embargo The Arab oil embargo was initiated by the Yom Kippur War which began in October '6, '1973,...

Oil & Gas

Why haven't Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen, entered the war?

Iran's Shiite allies from Lebanon and Iraq joined the regional war sparked by U.S.-Israeli?strikes against Tehran. Yemen's Houthi Rebels, who are heavily armed, and can strike Gulf neighbours?and cause major disruptions to maritime navigation in the Arabian Peninsula have yet to join the fray. This is why: Who are the Houthis? Houthis is a military?and?religious?movement led by the Houthi?family and based in north Yemen. They are Shi'ite Muslims who belong to the Zaydi Sect. After the "Arab Spring", the Houthis expanded their power, and developed closer ties to Iran. The group took advantage of the instability in the country to...

Oil & Gas

Kremlin: Russia and US have a shared interest in stabilising the energy markets

The Russian government sees the lifting of U.S. sanctions on its oil as an attempt by Washington to stabilize global energy markets. Washington's waiver of sanctions on Russian oil is an effort to stabilize global energy markets. The two countries share a common interest in this. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the United States had granted a 30-day exemption to 'countries' to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product currently at sea. This was done to stabilize global markets roiled by Iran War. Peskov stated that stabilisation of the market is impossible without a significant volume of Russian oil entering...

Oil & Gas

Japan considers whether to purchase Russian crude oil following US sanctions waiver

An official from the?industry?ministry said that Japan would consider buying Russian crude oil after the U.S. granted a 30-day waiver of?sanctions amid the Iran War, taking into account international conditions and its own?national interest. The U.S. waiver permits countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude oil and petroleum products that are currently stranded on the sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this as a move to stabilize the global energy market, which has been?roiled by Iran's war. Narumi hosokawa, the deputy general-director of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's (METI) immediate crisis management, said, "We will examine the issue in...

Oil & Gas

Brazil scraps diesel taxes, but imposes a levy on exports of oil after price spike

Brazil's government has scrapped diesel taxes and imposed a tax on oil exports. The move, which was made on Thursday, could affect the state-run Petrobras as it tries to ease the impact of recent global oil price spikes. The administration of President Luiz inacio da Silva said that the temporary measures will reduce the impact on local fuel prices caused by price swings resulting from the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. The South American nation cut the PIS federal tax and Cofins federal tax levied on diesel to zero. It also imposed a 12 percent tax on crude oil and a...

Oil & Gas

Nepal rations cooking gas in panic over shortage

An official said on Thursday that Nepal would begin rationing cooking gas due to fears of a possible nationwide shortage caused by the Middle East conflict. Chandika Bhatta, executive Director of the state-run Nepal Oil Corporation said that authorities will only refill half of empty cylinders of consumers starting Friday in order to extend the life of its liquefied petrol gas (LPG). The shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and Tehran's response across the region. This has effectively stopped shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Bhatta said that despite assurances...

Oil & Gas

Official: Gulf trio reviews sovereign investments to offset Iran War Impact

Gulf officials said that three Gulf states were reviewing the way they invest trillions of dollars from their sovereign wealth funds to offset the losses caused by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The official who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the review could include divestments, reversals of investment pledges, and a reevaluation of global sponsoring deals. This is because the oil and gas-rich states are assessing how to deal with the financial shock. The top four economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. Three of the four largest economies in the...

Oil & Gas

Australia temporarily relaxes fuel standards to boost the supply

Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced on Thursday that the country will temporarily relax fuel quality standards during the next 60-day period, as the Iran war is choking 'oil supplies and sending prices soaring. The move would allow fuels to contain up to 50 parts-per-million of sulphur, instead of the normal 10 parts-per million. He said that under the new relaxation, 100 million additional litres of gasoline per month will be allowed to enter the country. This will ease price pressures and fuel will be directed towards regions with a shortage. Ampol, a fuel refiner and retailer, is the company...

Oil & Gas

Brent oil returns to $100 after Iran intensifies its attacks on Gulf shipping

Oil prices rose on Thursday as Iran intensified its attacks?on?oil?and?transport facilities in the Middle East. This sparked fears of a long-term conflict and disruptions to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures were up $8.54 or 9.28% to $100.52 a bar at 0354 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $7.22 or 8.28% to $94.47. Brent crude oil hit $119.50 per barrel on Monday. It was its highest price since mid-2022. Then, it dropped when U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the Iran War could end soon. In remarks directed at the U.S., an Iranian military spokesperson said...

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

S&P maintains Saudi Arabian sovereign investment grade due to its ability to withstand regional conflict

S&P Global, a ratings agency, affirmed Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating at "A+/A-1", with a "stable outlook" on Friday. The agency said that the kingdom was well-positioned to withstand 'the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. S&P stated in a press release that "the outlook also reflects the view that non oil growth momentum and non-oil revenue... should support (Saudi Arabia’s) economy and fiscal trajectory." The Gulf Kingdom has budgeted a smaller budget deficit this year, but the global oil market remains volatile. The U.S. and Israeli war against?Iran is causing the Strait of Hormuz to be close to shutting...

Fossil Fuels

What are the echoes of 2022? The markets look back at Russia's playbook for the Middle East conflict

The world markets are 'rocked' by a Middle East conflict that could cause another inflationary shock. They're looking to the past for clues as to what will happen next. The global economy was recovering from the COVID-19 epidemic when the surge in?energy prices exacerbated inflation. Equities were down and investors sought safety with the dollar. George Lagarias is the chief economist of wealth manager Forvis-Mazars. He said that there are parallels in the sense that the global economy has been weakening due to the trade war. The trade war is a major inflationary factor that could be amplified by an...

Fossil Fuels

ASEAN Ministers call for an end to the Middle East War as the crisis rumbles trade and energy

ASEAN's foreign and economic ministers called on Friday for an immediate end to the Middle East war, and stated that the effects of high oil prices and disruptions in trade have already impacted Southeast Asia's economy. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has begun implementing measures to combat the economic impact. Governments are moving quickly to conserve electricity, stabilize domestic markets, and protect sectors like tourism that are vulnerable. Ma, the Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs, said: "We have expressed our serious concern about the?situation? in the Middle East? and its impact on the region. We also stressed the importance?of...

Crude Oil

Refined Products

Refined Products

Finance Minister: Japan is ready to take action against sharp yen fluctuations

Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance Minister, said that the country is prepared to take any steps necessary against sharp swings on foreign exchange and other financial markets. These have a major impact on peoples' livelihoods. Katayama said at a regular press conference that it was "clear" that the Middle East crisis had caused significant volatility in financial markets. She said that the government was ready to take action at any time to respond to the sharp swings in the market, particularly those caused by the surging oil price. The yen reached 159.43 yen on Thursday. This is the lowest since January...

Refined Products

The revenue from Russia's biggest oil tax is expected to double in March due to the global price rise

Calculations showed that the proceeds from Russia's mineral extract tax, which is its largest tax item for crude oil production and the country's?largest taxable item, could almost double in March due to the global price rally induced by the conflict in the Middle East. The global oil benchmarks soared to $119 per barrel on Monday, the highest level since June 2022. This was due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and others producers, which stoked fears of a major disruption to global supplies. The price increase of crude oil, along with the natural gas that it produces, will benefit Russia's...

Refined Products

South Korea will cap fuel prices starting Friday in order to ease consumer burden

South Korea announced on Thursday that it would cap the domestic fuel prices starting Friday in order to combat an increase in energy costs resulting from the conflict?in the Middle East. South Korea, Asia's fourth largest economy and a country that relies on imported energy for its needs, is making this move to try to mitigate the impact of the Middle East oil crisis. South Korea has set the maximum wholesale gasoline price at $1.17 per liter. This is below Wednesday's 1,833 won. The price will be adjusted every two weeks in order to reflect the changes in oil prices....

Refined Products

Trump's Kentucky trip aims to alleviate concerns about the cost of living caused by the Iran war

Donald Trump hoped to reassure Americans on a visit to Kentucky and Ohio, Wednesday, that the rising prices of 'gasoline' were temporary. Republican colleagues worried that these increases were causing voter anxiety over the economy. Trump's first campaign trip since the U.S. and Israeli military operation against Iran began on February 28, was a successful one. He could use the trip to hone his economic message, and highlight his achievements ahead of the midterm elections in November. His fellow Republicans are defending a narrow?majority in both chambers of Congress. Trump's first remarks at his stop in Cincinnati, Ohio were centered...

Refined Products

As the war continues, both low and high income US consumers could be hit by higher gasoline prices, volatile stock, and rising stocks.

The U.S. and Israel war against?Iran is likely to hit consumers hard across the United States' economic spectrum. This could undermine a key component of the economy that was?expected? to boom this year due in part because of a hefty income tax refund, low unemployment and rising asset prices. Analysts felt that both "spurs", of the U.S.'so-called K-shaped economic model, could maintain or even increase spending in the upcoming months. Wealth effects would lead better-off families and service industry workers to spend more, while windfall tax refunds due to 'new exemptions on overtime and tip income, helped hourly workers. Both...

Refined Products

Wanhua Chemical, a Chinese company, declares force majeure for Middle East supplies

A?representative of Wanhua Chemical said that the company has declared "force majeure" on its Middle East clients. According to an email sent by Wanhua to its customers and seen here, the 'force majeure' - a clause in a contract which relieves parties of their obligations due to a unforeseen event - took effect on March 7th. The letter said: "We face the'severe disruption of the shipping routes in Strait of Hormuz which makes?delivery unreasonably unsafe or impossible." According to traders, the petrochemical major sells its derivatives like isocyanates - a building block used in polyurethane for furniture, bedding and automobile...

Refined Products

The government's response to the oil price spike and the Middle East conflict escalating

Share markets are down on concerns that a U.S. - Israeli war against Iran is escalating and will lead to a squeeze on energy supplies around the world. Here are some?actions? that governments have taken?or? plan to take in order to lessen the impact the war has on their economies. SOUTH KOREAN PLANS FUEL CAPITAL South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced on Monday that the government would be capping domestic fuel prices for nearly 30 years. The country will also look for sources ?of energy beyond supplies shipped via the Strait of Hormuz, and a 100 trillion won ($67...

Refined Products

Finmin: Indonesia will absorb the shock of oil price increases using its state budget

Indonesia's Finance Minister?said? on Monday that the country will absorb the shock of a rise in oil prices by increasing the allocation to fuel subsidies and using the state budget. Indonesia has budgeted 381.3 billion rupiah (22.50billion dollars) for energy subsides and to compensate Pertamina, the state energy company and PLN, the utility company for their efforts to maintain some fuel and electricity prices at an affordable level. The budget is based on assumptions that Indonesian crude oil prices will average $70 per barrel in 2026 and the average rupiah rate of exchange for dollars will be 16,500. Oil prices...

Oil Refineries

South Korea will cap fuel prices to protect the economy from an energy shock

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced on Monday that the government would cap domestic gasoline prices for the first time in nearly 30 years to contain a price spike after the Middle East conflict sent global crude oil prices sharply higher. At an emergency meeting to discuss the Middle East Crisis, Lee stated that the government would "boldly and swiftly" implement a maximum pricing system on petroleum products which have seen recent price increases. In his opening remarks, Lee stated that the current crisis is "a significant burden" on our economy which is heavily dependent on global trade as...

Refined Products

US oil prices rise on fears of supply amid an expanding U.S./Israeli conflict with Iran

U.S. Crude Futures increased more than 20% during early trading on Monday. They reached their highest level since July 2022, due to the escalating U.S. - Israeli 'war with iran. As of 2220 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up as much as $20.34 per barrel and were $14.83 or 16.31% higher at $105.73. The price of WTI crude futures rose by as much as $22.4%, to $111.24 in the early part of the session. The benchmark contract rose 12% on the Friday, and it has gained 36% in the last week. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, the son...

Oil & Gas Refining

Asia refineries and petchem firms reduce runs as Mideast conflict disrupts feedstock supply

The U.S./Israel war on Iran caused a disruption in crude and feedstock imports from the Middle East, forcing several Asian refineries and companies to declare force majeure and cut back production. Asian steam crackers have declared force majeure on petrochemical deliveries to customers, despite sourcing more than 60% of their feedstock for naphtha from the Middle East. Three operators said they were reducing run rates in order to carry over some of the feedstock they have into next month. This will allow them to keep their plants operating and avoid shutting down even if they don't get enough imports. Two...

Oil & Gas Refining

India orders refiners in order to increase LPG production

A government order revealed that India has invoked emergency powers to increase production of LPG in order to prevent a shortage after supply disruptions caused by the Middle East Crisis. Last year, the world's second largest importer of LPG consumed 33.15 millions metric tons of LPG. This is a mixture between propane and butane. About two-thirds (or 85-90%) of LPG is imported, and most of it comes from the Middle East. The order, issued late Thursday night, asked all oil refiners to "maximise their propane and butane supplies and use them for the production of LPG". The government has asked...