Middle East

The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the recent escalation of hostilities between the U.S., Iran, and other countries could change its forecast of an oil surplus next year. Global supply increased in June after the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, but it still lagged behind pre-war levels. Last month, global oil markets were given some relief as a peace deal between the U.S.A. and Iran allowed the opening of Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this strait had effectively cut off up to 14 million barrels of crude per day during the height of the biggest oil supply...

On Thursday, member states returned Syria's voting right to the global chemical weapons watchdog after a "significant change in circumstances", as they called it, since the fall of Assad. Syria was stripped of its rights by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in 2021 after it was found that its forces had repeatedly used poisonous gas during the civil conflict. This was largely symbolic but sent a message to Syria that any breach of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention prohibiting the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield would not be tolerated. The OPCW stated that "after...

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran the United States would likely launch additional strikes on Wednesday night, following the attacks of the previous day. "I'll give a little warning. We're going hit them hard tonight," Trump said to reporters before his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO Summit in Turkey. Trump had said to reporters in Ankara that a memorandum-of-understanding between the United States & Iran, which served as an initial ceasefire agreement, was "over". He did not say that Washington would go back to full-fledged warfare, and it was not clear if the negotiations to turn...

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the UAE, announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a long-term partnership with South Korea for energy security. The agreement aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crude supply and emergency supply coordination. The partnership extends existing agreements. This includes a pledge made by the United Arab Emirates in March that they would supply South Korea up to 24,000,000 barrels of crude oil. It was announced at a visit to South Korea by Sultan al-Jaber. ADNOC Group CEO and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. ADNOC stated that both parties would...

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, said that the?new U.S. attacks on Iran? were "absolutely needed" The?U.S. The?U.S. Rutte said to reporters in Ankara, before the NATO summit. "When there is a ceasefire and Iran basically violates the ceasefire I think that it is absolutely crucial that the U.S. react forcefully." The European leaders will try to persuade Donald Trump to commit to the alliance after he renewed his disagreements with them regarding the Iran War and Greenland. Rutte stated that there was no doubt about the "complete commitment" of the United States to NATO, which he added also worked to...

On Tuesday, the United States revoked a general license which authorized the sale of Iranian crude oil. A U.S. official had warned that Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz are "wholly unacceptable" and that they will be met with consequences after attacks on tankers along the strategic waterway. The announcement led to an increase of more than 5% in oil prices. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would allow Iran to wind down its oil transactions until July 17, which were allowed under the license now revoked. An official from the United States said that despite this latest escalation,...

The Syrian state news agency said that French President Emmanuel Macron landed in Syria Monday. This was the 'first visit by a European Union Head of State to Damascus'since rebels led President Ahmed al-Sharaa overthrew Bashar al-Assad 2024. The visit highlights Syria's geopolitical change under Sharaa. A former al Qaeda leader, Sharaa has built close ties to Western and Middle Eastern countries that shunned Assad as he tries to rebuild a nation shattered after 13 years of war. "I'm here to affirm France’s commitment to the Syrian People. "I am here to affirm France's commitment to the Syrian people. Let's...

St Petersburg, Russia's second largest city and the surrounding Leningrad area were hit by a major Ukrainian drone attack over night. A Baltic Sea port which handles oil exports was also reported to have been affected. Alexander Beglov, the governor of St Petersburg, said that the city's?6-million population had been subjected to a "large scale" drone attack. He did not give any details about specific targets but the local media outlet Bumaga reported that there was a fire in the oil terminal of St Petersburg. Alexander Drozdenko, Governor of the Leningrad region, said that drones struck the port of Vysotsk...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline'retailers' to lower prices in celebration of the U.S.'s 250th birthday, reinforcing 'Trump's message with a warning 'we're monitoring' Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, especially during the 250th anniversary of the?Oil Industry, because we are watching." Bessent repeated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big issues." "If Retailers...

Guinea's mines minister said that the country aims to be a regional hub for gold refining. This is part of a wider push by West African producers to 'process bullion locally instead of exporting it into the Middle East. Gold prices are high, and the move aims to preserve more value for consumers at home. Bouna Sylla, Mines Minister Bouna Sylla said over the weekend that there was no problem if each country (in West Africa) had a refinery. "If you are not competitive in the market, your refinery will either fail or succeed due to economics and not politics."...

Oil prices increased on Monday following days of titt-for-tat attacks?by the United States and Iran?in the Middle East, which highlighted the fragility of the interim peace agreement and once again slowed down energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 52 cents or 0.672% to $72.51 per barrel at 2313 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 71 cents or 1.03%, trading at $69.94. Brent crude dropped 10.6% last weekend, its third consecutive weekly decline. Crude shipments through the Strait increased last week to the highest level since February, when the U.S. - Israel conflict with...

The local RFE/RL branch reported that Tajikistan has 60 days worth of fuel reserves. It is also in discussions with nearby countries to secure future supplies. This comes amid acute fuel shortages in Russia, a major trading partner. Radio Ozodi quoted the minister Daler Juma as saying "The export of some types?of petroleum products is still continuing from Russia to Tajikistan." At the same time, some difficulties continue. The broadcaster quoted the minister as saying that Tajikistan worked with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran to ensure it had the fuel it needed. Tajikistan is a small country with a population of...

Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly roundup of what the Open Interest team was reading, watching, and listening to. This week's picks include the impact of war on?energy security and food, China's ability to leverage critical minerals, and World Cup drama. We'll be reading RON BOUSSO's ROI Energy Columnist's paper, which examines the global impacts of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's oil refinery infrastructure. The analysis provides great detail about the extent of the damage. CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia 'Commodities and Energy. The Iran War threatened to cause a food shortage. The...

Oil prices rose on Thursday, after the U.S. launched new?strikes in Iran. This dented hopes of an end to the Iran war, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint that supplies one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war. Brent crude futures were up 78 cents or 1% at $78.8 per barrel as of 0054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 74 cents or 1.01% to $74.26 per barrel by 0054 GMT. WTI and Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 in the post-settlement trading on Wednesday,...

U.S. Oil Prices jumped by?nearly 3 percent in early trade Wednesday, continuing the previous session’s gains. This was after a series of strikes launched by the U.S. Military against Iran. The U.S. military's actions raised concerns about a fragile ceasefire. U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday that the strikes against Iran were a response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels that were?transiting the Strait of Hormuz?. As of 2215 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up $1.95 or 2.8% at $72.39 per barrel. WTI closed 2.8% higher on Tuesday, before continuing to rise?in the post-settlement trading after the U.S....

The oil prices fell on Monday as OPEC+ agreed that it would?increase the output target for August, while key?producers are recovering their exports via the Strait of Hormuz. This could add to global supplies. Brent crude futures fell 24 cents or 0.33% to $71.88 per barrel by 0010 GMT, after closing 0.45% higher Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $68.58 per barrel, down by 11 cents or 0.16%. WTI was not settled on Friday due to the U.S. market being closed for Independence Day on Saturday. The two contracts were largely unchanged last week after falling over the previous...

Kuwait's crude production jumped to 1.65m barrels a day in June, from just 580,000 bpd a month earlier, a source with knowledge of the situation said on Thursday. The OPEC member is boosting exports via the Gulf after the?U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Kuwait's surge in crude oil production is a sign that Gulf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered rapidly after the disruption caused by the Iran War. Stranded cargoes are slowly clearing the Strait of Hormuz, and exporters are restoring their production. Kuwait produced about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day before Iran effectively closed the...

Five trade sources have confirmed that China's Hengli Petrochemical has cancelled its recent purchases of non-Iranian oil. This forced the company to further cut back on refinery operations as the inventory was running low. The strange cancellations came just a few weeks after reports that the refiner had purchased cargos from West Africa, the Middle East and other parts of the world to avoid Washington's list. Three sources briefed about the issue said that the refiner had cancelled at least six million barrels. They said that 2 million barrels (of West African oil) were delivered last month to storage tanks...

Early trade on Thursday saw oil prices drop after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made "positive progress" during indirect talks concluded on Wednesday. The talks focused on the 'Strait of Hormuz which handled one-fifth of the global supply of oil before the war. Brent futures fell 73 cents or 1.02% to $70.84 a bar by 0102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 83 cents or 1.21% to $67.75 a bar. Both benchmarks dropped more than 1% in the previous session to their lowest level in four months. Sources claim that the U.S., Iran and their negotiators spent...

Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a 'further increase in their 'output targets for August, when they meet?Sunday. This will add supply at a moment of falling prices, as the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. All sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity, said that 'no decision has been finalized. Seven members of OPEC+ (which groups OPEC, Russia and other producers) have increased their 'output quotas between...

The oil prices rose on Wednesday morning as investors reacted to the news that Iran will not be meeting with U.S. ambassadors. This puts further pressure on the interim truce agreed between both countries in the four-month long war. Brent futures increased 50 cents (0.69%) to $73.45 per barrel at 1208 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 63 cents (0.91%) to $70.13 per barrel. The White House said that Jared?Kushner, the son-in law of Donald Trump, and Steve Witkoff, the envoy, arrived in Doha on Tuesday for "high-level" talks, but Iran and Qatar stated they would only meet with...

Indian sources in the refining industry said that several middlemen offered discounted Iranian oil to Indian'refiners' as Tehran tries to speed up sales following Washington’s temporary waiver of sanctions. After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days, allowing for a limited window to resume energy trade. Sources said that the Iranian state oil producer had allocated oil to Indian refiners through NIOC and intermediaries. "Apart from NIOC several traders contact us to sell Iranian?oil. One of the refining source said, "My priority is to give NIOC a chance."...

Trade sources reported on Friday that 'QatarEnergy' has released a tender to sell crude oil for loading in July and August. This is believed to be its first tender since the onset of 'the Iran -war. Producer offers Marine Land, Marine Qatar, and al-Shaheen crude. According to a tender document seen by, buyers can load or transfer via ship-to -ship transfer between Fujairah & Sohar. The bid will close on 29 June. The offer is a further boost to the rising supply of Middle Eastern producers. Iraq's SOMO, the state-owned oil marketer in Iraq, issued a tender?Thursday for Basra Heavy...