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In Dien Bien, Vietnam, flooding leaves 14 dead and missing.
State media reported that heavy rains caused flooding in the province of Dien Bien located in northern Vietnam. At least 14 people were killed or are missing. After hours of heavy rainfall, floodwaters rose quickly Thursday night, flooding low-lying houses and causing mudslides and flash floods in mountainous areas of the province. According to the report, the mountain village of Xa Dung was the most affected, with six people missing and one person dead. According to a provincial People's Committee statement, flooding has cut off power and traffic lines in several areas of the province. According to a statement, rescuers have yet to locate the bodies of two children who were buried by mudslides in Hang Pu Xi. According to media reports, the heavy rains in the province are hampering the search for missing persons.
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ASIA GOLD-Gold Demand in Key Asian Hubs Improves amid Price Correction
The physical gold demand on key Asian markets has improved this week, as the price drop has sparked a renewed interest in buying. However, volatility is keeping some buyers cautious. On Wednesday, spot gold fell to its lowest level for a whole month and was on track to suffer a third consecutive loss. This week footfall was higher than the previous week. "Buyers were asking about the price trends and made small purchases," said an Indian jeweller based in Pune. The domestic gold price was around 97.700 rupees for 10 grams of gold on Friday, after reaching 100.555 rupees the previous week. Indian dealers offer discounts The difference between official domestic prices and the price of gold has decreased to $7 per ounce, including 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes, as opposed to up to $15.00 last week. A Mumbai-based bullion seller with a private banking firm said that jewellers wanted to purchase items to replenish their inventory following a correction of overseas prices. However, a significant fall in the rupee partially offset the effect of the price drop. The World Gold Council announced on Thursday that India's gold demand in 2025 will fall to its lowest level in five years, due to record high prices. Dealers in China quoted gold at a range of prices, ranging from a discount of $4,2 to a premium up to $12 per ounce over international rates. Hugo Pascal is a precious metals dealer at InProved. He said, "China appears slightly to buy the dip in Gold... Trading volume for the physical contract AU9999 has been increasing (11 tons were traded yesterday), reflecting renewed interest in the Metal." Hong Kong gold Singapore sold the same product at a $1.50 price premium. Prices ranged from parity to a $1.40 surcharge. In Japan, bullion Was sold at par with a premium $0.60. There was a lot of demand for buying if the price even dropped slightly. A Japan-based trader stated that gold was being bought as an asset amid low interest rates, regardless of the Japan-U.S. deal. (Reporting from Anmol Choubey, Bengaluru, and Rajendra Jadhav, Mumbai)
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Chongqing residents seek refuge as heatwave strikes China's southwest
Chongqing in southwest China, known for its cyberpunk cityscape and fiery hotpot restaurants, has been sweltering in temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. Locals have responded to the heat by inventing new ways of coping with it. Liu Fengying (60), a local resident, said, "It is getting hotter and more hot." Liu Fengying, 60, a local resident, said that the temperatures were soaring on Thursday afternoon. He avoided the heat playing cards and sharing snacks among friends in an air-conditioned subway entrance. There's no way to escape the heat other than coming here. Even with the AC set at 17 degrees C last night, it was hot and would not cool down. The record heat in China has put strain on the power grid, as the demand for electricity is at new highs. It's now over 1.5 billion kilowatts and records have been broken four times in July. Chongqing's heat-wave alert was raised to its highest level, a "red alert", on Thursday. The forecast for 21 of the 38 districts is for temperatures to reach up to 43 C. Sunday will see a peak temperature of 44 C. In the past, temperatures in this city of 32 million people rarely exceeded 39 C, which is very hot for global standards. The number of days in the city that have been above 35 C since the beginning of May is double the average. But some Chongqingers remain unfazed - for now. Xie (79), one of dozens who gathered in a tributary to the Yangtze on Thursday as the sun began to set, cools off with regular swims along China's longest River. He said, "Chongqing is a furnace-city but we can cool off in the river." Before diving into the water from a bank of a river two meters high and wearing only his underwear. Qiu Xianhui (36), came to eat Chongqing hotpot, the famously spicy soup, with his friends at a restaurant located in an old bomb shelter, where the natural cooling air is present. "We are locals and we're used 40+ degree weather. He said, "We've seen everything."
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Europe has ceased to rely on American science
Interviews indicate that European governments are taking measures to reduce their dependence on the scientific data that the United States has historically provided to the world. They are also stepping up their data collection systems in order to monitor weather extremes and climate change. This effort, which was not previously reported, is the most concrete response to date from the European Union and European governments in response to President Donald Trump’s administration’s retreat from scientific researchers. Trump, since his return to the White House in 2017, has implemented sweeping cuts to agencies such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Centers for Disease Control, and others. He has also dismantled programs that conduct climate, weather and geospatial research, and taken some public databases off-line. According to interviews, as these cuts are implemented, European officials are becoming increasingly concerned that governments and businesses may have difficulty planning for extreme weather and long-term investment in infrastructure if they do not continue to access U.S. supported weather and climate data. In March, over a dozen European nations urged the EU Commission in order to quickly recruit American scientists whose jobs were lost due to these cuts. When asked for comment about NOAA cuts and EU moves to expand their own collection of scientific information, the White House Office of Management and Budget stated that Trump's proposed budget cuts for the agency in 2026 were targeted at programs which spread "fake Green New Scam ‘science'," a reference to policy and research on climate change. Rachel Cauley, a spokesperson for OMB, stated via email that "Under the leadership of President Trump, the U.S. funds real science again." European officials expressed concern about the U.S.'s general pullback in research, despite the fact that they are concerned that the data is vital to understanding climate change and marine systems. Maria Nilsson is the Swedish State secretary for Education and Research. She said: "The current situation has been much worse than expected." "My reaction is, quite frankly, shock." The Danish Meteorological Institute called the U.S. Government data "absolutely crucial" and stated that it relied upon several data sets for measuring sea ice and surface temperatures in the Arctic. The DMI's National Center for Climate Research director Adrian Lema said that reliable data is essential for extreme weather forecasts, climate projections and protecting communities. Officials from eight European nations said that their governments are reviewing their reliance on U.S. climate, marine and weather data. Seven countries, including Denmark, Finland Germany, Netherlands Norway Spain and Sweden, described their joint efforts to protect key climate and health data. LEANING ON THE U.S. A senior European Commission official said that the EU was expanding access to ocean observations data as a matter of priority. These data sets are vital to the shipping, energy and early storm warning industries. The EU is planning to expand the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODN) in the next two-years. This network collects and hosts data about shipping routes, seabed environments, marine litter and more. Senior European Commission officials said that the initiative aimed to "mirror and possibly replace US-based services". Europe is concerned that the U.S. will cut funding to NOAA, which would have a negative impact on Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), a network of ocean-observation programs that support navigation services, shipping routes, and storm forecasting. A second EU official confirmed this. Insurance companies rely on disaster records from the Global Ocean Observing System to model risk. Coastal planners use data on shoreline, sea level, and hazards to guide investments in infrastructure. Oceanic and seismic data are used by the energy industry to determine offshore drilling or wind farm feasibility. The senior EU Commission official also said that the EU was considering increasing funding for the Argo Program, a component of the Global Ocean Observing System, which uses a global network of floats in order to monitor oceans around the world and track global climate change, extreme weather and sea level rise. NOAA described the program that has been in operation for more than 25 years as the "crown gem" of ocean sciences. Its data is freely accessible to the oil and gasoline industry, marine tourism, and other industries. Argo's annual operating costs of $40 million are funded by the EU, but 57% is covered by the United States. White House and NOAA didn't respond to any questions regarding future support of that program. Craig McLean who is retiring in 2022, after 40 years at the agency, believes that European efforts to set up independent data collection and take a larger role in Argo are a break from decades of U.S. ocean science leadership. He said the U.S. was the undisputed leader in weather, climate, and marine data collection, and through NOAA, the U.S. had paid for over half of all ocean measurements around the world. European scientists recognize the U.S. government's outsized role in global scientific data collection and research. They also acknowledge that European countries are overly dependent on this work. It's similar to defense, we also rely heavily on America in this area. Katrin Boehning Gaese is the scientific director at Germany's Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. "GUERRILLA ARCHIVISTS" A number of European countries are taking steps to reduce this dependence. Sigrun Aasland, Norwegian Minister for Research and Higher Education and Research, said that Nordic countries had met in the spring to coordinate their data storage efforts. In May, European science ministers met in Paris to discuss the U.S. budget cuts for science. Aasland stated that Norway would set aside $2 million for the backup and storage of U.S. Data to ensure stable access. In February, the Danish Meteorological Institute began downloading historical U.S. Climate Data in case they were deleted by the U.S. Christina Egelund said that the Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science is also planning to move away from American observations and to alternative ones. Lema, from the Institute, said that "the potentially critical issue" is when new observation data stops coming in. He said that while weather models would continue to work without U.S.-based data, the quality of those models would be affected. The German government, meanwhile, has asked scientific organizations including the Center to examine its dependence on U.S. database. Scientists and citizens around the world have downloaded U.S. databases that were slated to be decommissioned - calling this "guerrilla archive." We received emergency calls from our U.S. colleagues who told us, "We have a serious problem and will need to abandon certain datasets," said Frank Oliver Gloeckner. He is the head of PANGAEA's digital archive, operated by German public funded research institutions. As part of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency cutbacks, about 800 of NOAA's 12000-strong workforce were terminated or given financial incentives to leave. The White House budget plan for 2026 aims to shrink NOAA further. It proposes a $1.8 billion budget cut or 27%, as well as a staffing reduction of nearly 20%, bringing the NOAA workforce down to 10,000. The budget proposal eliminates the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA's principal research arm), which is responsible for ocean observatories including Argo, coastal observation networks, satellite sensors, and climate model laboratories. Also, it is reducing the number of data products. NOAA announced the decommissioning on its website of 20 datasets related to marine science and earthquakes between April and June. NOAA has not responded to any requests for comment. Gloeckner stated that there are no legal obstacles to storing data from the U.S. Government as the information is already public. Denice Ross is a senior fellow with the Federation of American Scientists. The group is a nonprofit science policy organization. She was the chief data officer for the U.S. Government during Joe Biden’s administration. Ross stated that databases need to be updated regularly, which is only possible with government funding and infrastructure. In the past few months, officials from the Federation and EU have had a series discussions with European researchers, U.S. charities, and groups that advocate for health and the environment to determine what data should be saved. She said that other nations, institutions, and philanthropies could fill in the gaps left by the U.S. quality if it starts to deteriorate.
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Andy Home: Copper market suffers for forgetting its TACO-hedging:
The copper market has the tariffs right, but the products are wrong. The copper market was surprised by President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would "address the effects of imports of copper on America's security". Imports of semi-manufactured copper products, such as wires and tubes, will face a 50% tariff starting Friday. The tariff will not be applied to refined copper until at least January 2027. If warranted, a gradual increase in the rate may then take place. The tariff trade that has dominated the copper market in February has collapsed. CME's U.S. Contract plummeted more than 20% after the news. This wiped out the high premium that was previously over the London Metal Exchange price. The United States has a surplus of metal that it does not need, after traders shipped massive tonnages via the arbitrage gap. The copper market has forgotten Trump's tendency of backing down from his most extreme threats. To borrow a popular investor meme, it has been TACOed, which is short for Trump Always Chills Out. Targeted Products for Copper Tariffs on semifinished copper products are applied to between 400,000-500,000 metric tonnes of U.S. imports per year. The United States imports a lot more refined copper. Last year, imports were just under 900,000. Canada is by far the biggest copper supplier to the U.S. but there are many other suppliers. Copper tubes were imported from 32 countries last year. Tariffs will be applied to all copper-intensive products, including cables, connectors, and electrical components. This is likely to include more suppliers. The new tariff wall will be good for domestic processors - but only if their capacity is sufficient to cover what's currently imported. In the next few months, we will know how many exemptions specific to products have been granted. SCRAP WARS GET HOTTER Export restrictions will also be placed on concentrates mined in the United States and recyclable copper. A quarter of domestically-produced "copper input materials" will be required to be sold in the United States from 2027. This rate will increase to 30% in 2020, and then 40% in 2029. This may require more capacity than the three domestic smelters currently available, even if Grupo Mexico were to reactivate its idle Hayden facility in Arizona. To encourage domestic recycling, "high-quality copper scrap" must also meet a minimum requirement of 25%. The exact types of scrap that qualify for this measure are not known, nor is it clear how the measure will work in reality. However, the move represents an escalation of the simmering scrap battles. The European Union also considers export quotas for recyclable copper in order to stop "scrap leakage." China is the primary target, as it is the largest purchaser of secondary raw materials in the world. In 2024, the country imported 2,25 million tons copper scrap, the highest total ever since 2018, the first year that the authorities tightened the purity requirements on imported material. Imports are already slowing down this year due to a drop of 42% in shipments coming from the United States because of the high CME premium. The global scrap market is experiencing a growing resource nationalism, which will lead to structural changes in the recycling of materials. Can we have our COPPER back now? Not for refined copper as everyone expected. The United States has now ceased to need the copper that was shipped by large trade houses. It may have been a lucrative trade for the companies involved, but it is no longer necessary. CME warehouses now hold 232.195 tons of copper. This is the highest amount since 2004. Due to traders' last-minute rush to beat the August 1 deadline, metal is still arriving every day. Tariffs have a huge impact on the supply chain of other countries. China exported nearly 260,000 tons (or 78,800 tons) of refined copper from March to June. This is a significant increase over the previous four-month period. A portion of the copper was delivered to meet a shortfall on the London Market caused by the raid of LME stocks on brands that could be shipped to the United States. It was mostly non-Chinese steel that was shipped to the United States from warehouses bonded with non-Chinese metal. Shanghai Futures Exchange's stocks have plummeted to 73 423 tons, their lowest level since last December, due to China's booming exports. The physical supply chain may take longer to adjust than the futures trade. Analysts have already run the numbers to see if it makes sense to reverse the flow of copper back out of the United States. SAME TIME THE NEXT ANNUAL? What is the end of the copper tariff? Most likely not, as the reference explicitly mentions the option of a stepped tariff on imported refined copper starting at 15% in 2020 and increasing to 30% in 2030. The outcome will be determined by the report on the domestic market that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to release at the end of next June. It is also dependent on whether Trump decides to change his mind before then. Tariff Man is a great way to find out. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - "Tariffs, please use this version"
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The deadline for tariffs has passed and Donald Trump has imposed new levies on imports, including from countries that have not yet signed a trade agreement. Canada was set at 35%, India at 25%, Taiwan at 20%, and Thailand, 19%. Switzerland received a staggering 39%, one of the highest rates. This raises the question: What does Trump have against the Swiss people? You're not buying enough American watches or chocolate? After months of posturing and meetings, delays, and truces that prompted investors to wonder what was real and what was just a bluff, the big day finally arrived. There is much left to be done. Most levies, it could be argued, are lower than the ones that were threatened on April 2 which sent the markets into a tailspin. Plus, the major trade agreements with Japan and the European Union were reached and talks with China and Mexico continue. This is likely why the market's reaction has been so muted. Most Asian shares did fall, but not by much. South Korea, however, is the exception. Its shares fell over 3% due in part to the rollback of domestic tax cuts. Taiwan's President said that the 20% tax is only temporary, and it is expected to reduce further once a deal has been reached. Wall Street and European stocks did not seem too concerned by the tariff news. The EuroStoxx 50 futures fell by 0.3%. Nasdaq and S&P futures both fell by 0.2% due to Amazon's 6% drop after it failed to meet expectations. After the news on tariffs is out of the picture, the euro zone's flash CPI will be released later that day. Expectations are for a slight reduction in July to 1.9% from 2.0%, in annual terms. The markets have only priced half of a reduction from the European Central Bank for early next year. Then it will all be about the payrolls. This is crucial for hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. It's now priced at 40%, a far cry from 75% one month ago. Forecasts point to a rise of 110,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4,1% to 4,2%. If there are any positive surprises, they could reduce the likelihood of a change next month. This would give dollar bulls a reason to rally. The greenback has had its best week in three years - gaining 2.5% compared to its peers. This is a continuation of its recent upward trend from a low point three years ago. The Fed has remained hawkish and has not eased policy on the issue of tariffs. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge was a little hotter over night, showing some impact from tariffs. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Eurozone flash CPI for the month of July ISM Manufacturing Survey: U.S. Payrolls for July Want to stay up-to-date with the latest tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
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Shell's Second Quarter Profit Tumbles by Almost a Third
Shell's second-quarter adjusted earnings, its definition of net profit, tumbled by almost a third on Thursday, dragged down by a drop in oil prices, but still easily beat analysts' forecasts.The oil major said it would maintain the pace of its share buyback programme at $3.5 billion over the next three months, the 15th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion.Shell has, meanwhile, achieved $3.9 billion in cost cuts compared with 2022, part of a cost-cutting programme aimed at saving between $5 billion and $7 billion by the end of 2028.It recorded cash flow from operations of $11.9 billion in the quarter, down from $13.5 billion a year ago.Together with $2.1 billion in dividends, that brings shareholder distributions to 46% of operating cashflow, within its 40% to 50% guided range.Shell's adjusted earnings reached $4.264 billion in the second quarter, smashing the $3.74 billion average in an analyst poll provided by the company but down 32% from a year ago.Global benchmark Brent crude prices LCOc1 averaged around $67 a barrel during the April-to-June quarter, compared with $75 a barrel in the first quarter and $85 a year earlier.Crude oil prices fell in the quarter as OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, began unwinding self-imposed production cuts aimed at supporting the market.Their most recent decision calls for an oil output increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August.Shell had guided in a trading update that it expected earnings to be hit by weaker trading in its integrated gas division and losses at its chemicals and products operations after an outage at its U.S. Monaca polymer plant.(Reuters - Reporting by Shadia NasrallaEditing by David Goodman and Joe Bavier)
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Nexans, Crowley Wind Services to Build Cable Lay Barge for US Ops
French subsea power cable maker and services provider Nexans has formed partnership with Crowley Wind Services to develop and operate a Jones Act compliant cable lay barge. The cable lay barge will be dedicated to supporting the installation of subsea transmission lines necessary for offshore wind energy, telecommunications and other major industrial applications.The 300-foot, U.S.-flagged vessel, built in Louisiana and tested in the U.S. Gulf to Nexans specifications, will be crewed by American mariners under Crowley’s operation.The vessel will play a critical role in laying and burying the subsea cables needed to deliver energy from offshore to the grid onshore. The barge is the first to have vertical injectors along with a dynamic positioning system and a multiple-anchors positioning system, which allow for accurate and efficient cable placement, even in challenging conditions. The barge boasts a 3,500-ton capacity carousel to lay and bury subsea cable using burial tools such as a vertical injector, a jet sled, or a jetting ROV, with the potential to be upgraded to 7,000 tons with two carousels for bundle cable lay and burial.The barge is positioned to support Equinor’s Empire Wind offshore wind farm for New York and can be configured to lay or repair cable for a multitude of other subsea applications."This barge will support our existing fleet of cable laying vessels, the Nexans CLV Aurora, Nexans C/S Skagerrak and Nexans CLV Electra, and we are pleased to be working with Crowley on developing the capability to lay nearshore subsea cable in the U.S.," said Pascal Radue, executive vice president of Nexans' PWR-Transmission Business Group, highlighting the significance of the partnership.“The cable lay barge will provide a productive supply chain solution for offshore energy, telecommunications and other sectors.“Coupled with our U.S. maritime fleet and mariners providing feedering services and other logistics and project management capabilities, we could not be better equipped to serve the needs of industries seeking subsea cable solutions,” added Graham Tyson, vice president of operations, Crowley Wind Services.The vessel will be operated by a crew of U.S. mariners, supporting maritime investment and employment goals.“AMO is proud to be the leading source for United States Coast Guard licensed officers in the wind farm space. Our long-lasting partnership with Crowley, and our new relationship with Nexans, will help to provide clean, affordable and sustainable energy to millions of Americans and will open the door to future offshore projects,” added Willie Barrere, American Maritime Officers National President.
Sources say that Asia is increasing its imports of US WTI oil as Middle East prices increase.
Trade sources say that Asia will increase imports of U.S. West Texas intermediate crude in the fourth-quarter after Middle East oil price increased and opened arbitrage window.
They said that the price gap between light-sweet U.S.WTI oil and Middle East crude benchmarks Dubai & Murban has narrowed this month due to robust demand in Asia for high-sulphur oils.
WTI's Arbitrage to Asia has been open for the last week for cargoes that arrive in early November. This was stated by June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.
Sources said that U.S. oil producer Occidental sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil. One source said that the cargo was sold for a premium of $3.50 per barrel over October Dubai prices, and would be delivered in October.
A Singapore-based trader stated that WTI crude oil could be sold at a price 50-75 cents per barrel less than Murban oil of similar quality to North Asian refiners, depending on the suppliers.
Two other traders claim that WTI is 30 cents less expensive than Murban light-sour grade.
The trade is also enabled by the falling costs of a large crude carrier that can send 2,000,000 barrels from the Gulf Coast in the United States to Asia.
The daily tanker rates of SSY on LSEG Workspace show that the costs for a VLCC shipping U.S. crude oil to China, Singapore, and West Coast India dropped by $200,000 on Wednesday to $6.5, $5.5, and $5.35, respectively.
Sources confirming the benchmark said that Murban's supplies have also been tightened as Abu Dhabi National Oil Co has reduced its exports of its flagship grades by diverting oil to its own refinery.
Goh stated that "we anticipate more Asian buyers will secure WTI cargoes, especially as Murban looks expensive while taking the opportunity to diversify their portfolio against AG (Arabian Gulf crude)."
She said that the threat of U.S. president Donald Trump to impose secondary duties on countries who buy Russian oil also supports Middle East crude price. Indian refiners will look to purchase oil from Gulf to replace Russian supply, she added.
Trump shortened the deadline by which Moscow must make progress in a peace agreement with Ukraine or face secondary tariffs of 100 percent for its oil customers within 10 to 12 business days. This reflects his growing frustration over Russia's actions.
China, India, and Turkey are the main importers of Russian crude. Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Siyi LIu in Houston, Arathy Sommesekhar at Houston; editing by Tom Hogue and Philippa Fletcher
(source: Reuters)