South-West Asia

A report released by OPEC on Wednesday showed that the world oil supply will match demand in 2020, reflecting the production increase of OPEC+. This is a shift from earlier predictions of a 2026 supply deficit. OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies - has increased its production targets by approximately 2.9 million barrels a day - or about 2.7% of the global supply – since April. The company plans to stop production increases in the first quarter 2026, amid predictions that there will be an oversupply. In a report released...

Several sources familiar with the situation said that Saudi Arabia will export to China at least 36,000,000 barrels of crude, a slight decrease from the previous month. As some Chinese refineries prepare for maintenance, and independent refiners wait for Beijing's 2026 import quotas, the expected drop in oil supply for the second consecutive month from the top oil exporter to world's biggest importer comes at a time when many refineries in China are preparing for maintenance. Sources said that one of the Chinese buyers has reduced their December volume because they have already lifted the majority of their full-year contract...

The Gulf's major stock exchanges rose early on Tuesday. This was aided in part by the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and signs that the U.S. shutdown may be nearing its end. The U.S. economy lost jobs last week. Retail and government sectors were the main culprits. A survey released on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer's sentiment had fallen to its lowest level in 3-1/2 years at the beginning of November, due to concerns about the effects the shutdown would have on the economy. The shutdown has delayed important economic metrics including the non-farm...

The top official of the U.S. Treasury Department said that the United States is looking to seize a "moment in Lebanon" to cut off Iranian funding for Hezbollah, and to press the group into disarming. John Hurley said in a late-Friday interview that Iran managed to send about $1 billion this year to Hezbollah despite the Western sanctions which have ravaged its economy. The U.S. is waging a campaign of "maximum pressuring" on Tehran to reduce its uranium-enrichment program and regional influence. This includes in Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah has also been weakened since Israel destroyed its military strength...

A U.S. official familiar with the matter said on Friday that the United States supports the European Union in using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine and bring an end to the war with Russia. The European Commission, as the West seeks a way to increase pressure on Moscow has proposed a plan that would allow EU governments to use up 185 billion euro ($217 billion), which is the majority of the 210 million euros of Russian sovereign assets frozen in Europe. Washington "absolutely support (the EU)" and the measures they are taking to be able to use those assets...

Bloomberg News, citing the CEO of ADNOC, reported that the trading division at the Abu Dhabi state oil company plans to double its volume in the next few year as part its international expansion. ADNOC has increased its global expansion over the last few years in order to find new revenue sources for the Gulf State, including by building trading operations. Ahmed Bin Thalith is the chief executive officer of ADNOC Global Trading. He told Bloomberg that the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company views trading as a means to maximize the value of fuels sold in the emirate or...

The Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have agreed to the United States' and Arab countries' proposal for a humanitarian truce and are open to discussions on a cessation in hostilities. Both the RSF and the Sudanese army have agreed to various ceasefire proposals during their two-and-a-half-year-old war, though none have succeeded. The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump has stated that it is working to end fighting in Sudan. The Sudanese Army did not respond immediately to the announcement. It comes less than two week after the RSF had taken over the famine-stricken town of al-Fashir and consolidated its control...

A survey on Wednesday showed that the growth in non-oil activity in the United Arab Emirates in October was less robust, and business confidence had fallen to its lowest level in almost three years. The S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index, which is adjusted for season, fell to 53.8 from 54.2 in Septembre but remained well above 50.0, the mark that indicates expansion. The growth was driven by an increase in new orders and improved economic conditions, as well as increased marketing efforts. The pace of growth in new business slowed compared to September and orders from foreign clients only...

A survey on Tuesday found that OPEC oil production increased in October following an OPEC+ deal to increase production. However, the rate of growth was much slower than it had been during September and summer. According to the survey, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28,43 million barrels of oil per day last month. This is up 30,000 barrels from the total of September. Saudi Arabia and Iraq saw the biggest increases. OPEC+ - a grouping of OPEC members and their allies, including Russia - has slowed down the pace at which its output increased in October, due...

Saudi Arabia's third-quarter budget deficit increased by 160%, as revenues dropped and spending rose. The finance ministry announced this on Thursday. Oil revenues dropped 0.1%, to 150.8 billion riyals. The unwinding of OPEC production cuts weighed on prices. Meanwhile, the Kingdom's Vision 2030 plan for diversification was implemented. In the first quarter of this year, revenues for the world's largest oil exporter fell by 13% compared to last year. 119.1 billion dollars came from industries other than oil. The public spending increased by 6% on an annual basis to 358.4 billion Riyals. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook raised its...

India announced on Thursday that the U.S. had granted it a six-month waiver of sanctions to operate Chabahar's Iranian port. This will help New Delhi to boost its trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian nations, bypassing Pakistan. Last year, India signed a contract for 10 years with Iran. Develop and operate a port This month, the United States has increased its cooperation with Taliban-run Afghanistan. Reopening of its Embassy Kabul was closed in 2021 after the Islamist group took power following the withdrawal by the U.S. led NATO forces. Initially, the port was planned to be built on Iran's Gulf...

Traders and analysts said that Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, a state-owned company, has sold crude oil to Asia after an unplanned shutdown at its Al-Zour Refinery. People said that KPC sold crude oil, including Kuwait Heavy Crude, Eocene Grade, to Asian buyers for immediate delivery via rare tenders. It was not immediately known the volume or who bought it. Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company shut down Al-Zour's refinery on October 21 due to a fire. All units should be back up and running by November 7, says industry watchdog IIR. Indian refiners were looking for alternatives to Russian oil after U.S....

Sources at three Indian refiners reported on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia and Iraq, producers from the Middle East, have allotted full-term crude volumes for Indian refiners in December while also offering additional quantities under optional contracts. After halting their Russian oil purchases due to the tightening of Western sanctions, Indian suppliers have increased demand for Middle East crude. Last month, the United States, Britain and European Union designated Russian Top oil producers Rosneft, and Lukoil caused immediate disruptions in trade as fears of sanctions drove away buyers from India and China. Sources said that the Indian refiners received their full...

Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has offered heavy crude to be loaded in December through a spot bid, according to sources within the industry and the tender document. This is because it sells extra oil that Al-Zour Refinery cannot process. The producer offered to load 500,000 barrels Kuwait Heavy Crude on December 6 and 7, as well as the same amount of Eocene Crude on December 8 and 9. The bids will be valid until Thursday. KPC now has a total of 3.9 million barrels in heavy crude spot sales. Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (KIPIC) has announced that on October 21...

The Turkish government said that it was continuing talks with Qatar and Oman to procure Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters. This follows a Monday deal with Britain for the purchase of 20 jets. The agreement between NATO allies Turkey, Britain and France aims to strengthen their relationship and boost Turkish air defences. Ankara said that it also wanted to purchase 24 jets from Qatar and Oman, even if they were lightly used. Analysts have called the British Prime Minister Keir starmer's deal worth 8 billion pounds ($10.7billion) expensive. The Turkish Defence Ministry announced at a briefing held in Ankara that the...

OPEC did not change its forecasts on Monday for the relatively high growth in global oil demand this year and the next. It also implied that the oil market would see a smaller deficit of supply by 2026, as the OPEC+ group continues to increase production. OPEC+ has added more crude oil to the market since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies have decided to undo some production cuts faster than originally planned. This extra supply has led to concerns of an oil surplus, and has weighed down on the price of crude this...

Saudi Arabian crude oil exports fell to their lowest level since four months in July, according data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative on Monday. The world's biggest oil exporter has seen its crude exports fall to 5,994 million barrels a day from 6,141 million bpd, the lowest level since March 20,25. Saudi Arabia's crude production for July fell to 9.201 million barrels per day (bpd) from the 9.752 in June. The data revealed that the crude throughput of Saudi refineries was 2.978 millions bpd. This is up 10% from June, when it was 2.703million bpd. Direct crude burning,...

The energy minister announced on Tuesday that Sri Lanka is expecting the Chinese state energy giant Sinopec, to begin construction on a $3.7-billion refinery in this year. They are also considering the long-standing request of the company to sell more local fuel. In an interview in his office, Energy Minister Kumara Jayakody stated that the Sinopec refinery approved in 2023 will have a capacity of processing 200,000 barrels per day. It will be located close to the Chinese-built Hambantota Port in southern Sri Lanka. He said, "The land is already allocated to them and they've done all the other facilities."...

Three sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil exporter, has asked Asian buyers for more crude oil in October. The kingdom had made price cuts deeper than expected on all grades due to a growing supply. Two sources claim that Saudi Aramco, in its bid to regain market share, spoke with Asian buyers at the APPEC Conference in Singapore this week, encouraging them to buy more crude oil in October. One of them stated that this has partially led to the delay of the October supply being allocated to their customers, possibly...

A survey released on Thursday found that OPEC oil production increased in August following an OPEC+ production agreement. This was primarily due to the United Arab Emirates' and Saudi Arabia's higher production. According to the survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 27,84 million barrels of oil per day in July, an increase of 360,000 barrels per days over the revised total for the month of July. The United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, were the countries that saw the biggest increases. OPEC+ - which includes OPEC, its allies, including Russia - is accelerating the plan to...

China's refiners increased their processing rates in the month of July. However, strong crude oil imports from abroad and domestic production meant that there was still an excess of over half a million barrels a day (bpd). Calculations based on data from the official sources show that crude oil surplus in July dropped to 530,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 1.42million bpd. The key is that despite the drop in oil surplus, refiners will likely continue to add to their stockpiles. This will allow them the ability to reduce imports if prices increase to levels they feel are not justified....

Four trade sources reported on Monday that Indian Oil Corp had purchased 7 million barrels from the United States and Canada, as well as the Middle East. This comes at a time when U.S. president Donald Trump is intensifying his criticism of India over its purchases Russian oil. India is the largest buyer of crude oil by sea from Russia. Russia is currently under Western sanctions due to its involvement in Ukraine. Reports last week said that its main refiners stopped buying Russian oil as discounts from other suppliers shrank. Trump had threatened to impose hefty tariffs for imports of...

Indian Oil Corp. (IOC), India's largest refiner, bought 7 million barrels from United States, Canada, and Middle East crudes arriving in September via an auction, according to several sources. IOC's large purchase of spot crude comes after the arbitrage windows for U.S. oil to Asia opened, and Indian state refiners stopped buying Russian crude oil at a time when discounts were shrinking. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned that countries should not purchase oil from Moscow because it is currently under sanctions for its full-scale invasion in Ukraine on February 20, 2022. The sources stated that IOC purchased 4.5...

It would have been a bold prediction a couple of months back to claim that OPEC+ could bring back 2,5 million barrels of crude oil production per day and keep the price of oil at $70 a barrel. This is what happened, as the eight producers of the group rolled back their voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd by September and allowed a separate rise for the United Arab Emirates. Eight OPEC+ member countries met virtually on Sunday and agreed to increase output by 547,000 bpd in September. This is an addition to the 548,000 bpd increases for August, the...