Energy Markets
Mike Dolan: The ROI-Transatlantic Rate Convergence may be a mirage
The interest rate differentials are telling a story right now, and it is a complex one. Transatlantic policy rate gaps are closing quickly, but if you look farther out, a different picture emerges. The euro/dollar rate is the pivotal currency pair in the world. It accounts for over $2 trillion of daily currency market turnover, and more than one fifth of all global flows. The U.S. premium on short rates over the euro zone may well disappear by the end of this year. This is likely to be a powerful headwind for the dollar. It may struggle to maintain the...