South-West Asia

* Oil demand growth in 2026 is cut by 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the impact of the Iran war * OPEC+ production?rises 3 million bpd by June as Hormuz flow starts to?recover * Reduced geopolitical tensions could give the economy some 'upside' in the second half of the year Olesya Astakhova & Alex Lawler LONDON - OPEC lowered Monday its forecast for the world's oil demand growth to 780,000 barrels a day. This is its third consecutive downward revision. The producer group has continued to predict a lower impact on consumption than other forecasters, such as the...

After a series of antisemitic attacks on British streets, the British government used powers similar to proscriptions in order to combat state-backed threats. This power would effectively ban support for these groups, and give police and intelligence agencies?new powers to combat any threats related to them. Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that "these 'new powers' will make it easier for anyone to be prosecuted and jailed in Britain who is doing their dirty work." Since its establishment in 1979, the IRGC has been an elite military force loyal the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic...

Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani died aged 74. He was a moderniser and a powerful leader who took power in 1995, but broke tradition by handing it over to his son, 18 years later. The Amiri Diwan in Qatar, Qatar's top government body, announced on Sunday that Sheikh Hamad died. The cause of death was not mentioned. It did not mention?the cause of his death. Sheikh Hamad presided in one of the most significant periods of history of the country, driving a fast transformation of the small desert state, which reshaped the economy, global status and political ambition. He was...

The nation's Amiri Diwan (its top government body) announced on Sunday that Qatar's former emir had died at the age of 74. Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, Qatar's former ruler from 1995 until 2013, abdicated to his son Sheikh Tamim. Sheikh Tamim is now the current leader of this gas-rich Gulf nation. The Amiri Diwan has announced the death of HH Father Amir Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani. The Diwan stated that Allah would have mercy on him and give him the best reward possible for his achievements for 'his homeland and nation. Sheikh Hamad has raised Qatar's profile...

The International Energy Agency said on Friday that the recent escalation of hostilities between the U.S., Iran, and other countries could change its forecast of an oil surplus next year. Global supply increased in June after the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, but it still lagged behind pre-war levels. Last month, global oil markets were given some relief as a peace deal between the U.S.A. and Iran allowed the opening of Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this strait had effectively cut off up to 14 million barrels of crude per day during the height of the biggest oil supply...

On Thursday, member states returned Syria's voting right to the global chemical weapons watchdog after a "significant change in circumstances", as they called it, since the fall of Assad. Syria was stripped of its rights by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in 2021 after it was found that its forces had repeatedly used poisonous gas during the civil conflict. This was largely symbolic but sent a message to Syria that any breach of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention prohibiting the use of chemical weapons on the battlefield would not be tolerated. The OPCW stated that "after...

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran the United States would likely launch additional strikes on Wednesday night, following the attacks of the previous day. "I'll give a little warning. We're going hit them hard tonight," Trump said to reporters before his meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the NATO Summit in Turkey. Trump had said to reporters in Ankara that a memorandum-of-understanding between the United States & Iran, which served as an initial ceasefire agreement, was "over". He did not say that Washington would go back to full-fledged warfare, and it was not clear if the negotiations to turn...

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

ADNOC, the state-owned oil company of the UAE, announced on Wednesday that it had entered into a long-term partnership with South Korea for energy security. The agreement aims to increase cooperation in areas such as crude supply and emergency supply coordination. The partnership extends existing agreements. This includes a pledge made by the United Arab Emirates in March that they would supply South Korea up to 24,000,000 barrels of crude oil. It was announced at a visit to South Korea by Sultan al-Jaber. ADNOC Group CEO and UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology. ADNOC stated that both parties would...

Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, said that the?new U.S. attacks on Iran? were "absolutely needed" The?U.S. The?U.S. Rutte said to reporters in Ankara, before the NATO summit. "When there is a ceasefire and Iran basically violates the ceasefire I think that it is absolutely crucial that the U.S. react forcefully." The European leaders will try to persuade Donald Trump to commit to the alliance after he renewed his disagreements with them regarding the Iran War and Greenland. Rutte stated that there was no doubt about the "complete commitment" of the United States to NATO, which he added also worked to...

On Tuesday, the United States revoked a general license which authorized the sale of Iranian crude oil. A U.S. official had warned that Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz are "wholly unacceptable" and that they will be met with consequences after attacks on tankers along the strategic waterway. The announcement led to an increase of more than 5% in oil prices. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would allow Iran to wind down its oil transactions until July 17, which were allowed under the license now revoked. An official from the United States said that despite this latest escalation,...

The Syrian state news agency said that French President Emmanuel Macron landed in Syria Monday. This was the 'first visit by a European Union Head of State to Damascus'since rebels led President Ahmed al-Sharaa overthrew Bashar al-Assad 2024. The visit highlights Syria's geopolitical change under Sharaa. A former al Qaeda leader, Sharaa has built close ties to Western and Middle Eastern countries that shunned Assad as he tries to rebuild a nation shattered after 13 years of war. "I'm here to affirm France’s commitment to the Syrian People. "I am here to affirm France's commitment to the Syrian people. Let's...

The price of oil rose 2% to its highest level in four weeks on Tuesday as the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade of?Iran and the U.S. and Iran intensified their attacks in the Strait of?Hormuz. This increased uncertainty over?energy flow. Brent crude futures rose $1.68 or 2% to $84.98 a barrel at 0051 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude gained $1.65 or 2.1% to $79.79 a barrel. Brent crude gained 9.6% during the previous session. This was its largest daily gain since May 2019. The oil prices have reached their highest level since June 17, when the two countries signed...

The local RFE/RL branch reported that Tajikistan has 60 days worth of fuel reserves. It is also in discussions with nearby countries to secure future supplies. This comes amid acute fuel shortages in Russia, a major trading partner. Radio Ozodi quoted the minister Daler Juma as saying "The export of some types?of petroleum products is still continuing from Russia to Tajikistan." At the same time, some difficulties continue. The broadcaster quoted the minister as saying that Tajikistan worked with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran to ensure it had the fuel it needed. Tajikistan is a small country with a population of...

Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly roundup of what the Open Interest team was reading, watching, and listening to. This week's picks include the impact of war on?energy security and food, China's ability to leverage critical minerals, and World Cup drama. We'll be reading RON BOUSSO's ROI Energy Columnist's paper, which examines the global impacts of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's oil refinery infrastructure. The analysis provides great detail about the extent of the damage. CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia 'Commodities and Energy. The Iran War threatened to cause a food shortage. The...

Oil prices rose on Thursday, after the U.S. launched new?strikes in Iran. This dented hopes of an end to the Iran war, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint that supplies one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war. Brent crude futures were up 78 cents or 1% at $78.8 per barrel as of 0054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 74 cents or 1.01% to $74.26 per barrel by 0054 GMT. WTI and Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 in the post-settlement trading on Wednesday,...

Two questions are raised by the decision of OPEC+, to increase crude production quotas a fifth consecutive month? from August. Who will purchase the product if they are able to ship it? At a Sunday meeting, the'seven core members' of OPEC+ (which groups together OPEC, as well as other producers like Russia) agreed to increase quotas - by 188,000 barrels a day starting August. This will bring the 'total increase since April to nearly 800,000 bpd. The first question can be answered positively if the Strait of Hormuz remains open and the volume of water flowing through the narrow waterway...

Kuwait's crude production jumped to 1.65m barrels a day in June, from just 580,000 bpd a month earlier, a source with knowledge of the situation said on Thursday. The OPEC member is boosting exports via the Gulf after the?U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Kuwait's surge in crude oil production is a sign that Gulf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered rapidly after the disruption caused by the Iran War. Stranded cargoes are slowly clearing the Strait of Hormuz, and exporters are restoring their production. Kuwait produced about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day before Iran effectively closed the...

Kyrgyzstan, which was concerned about possible fuel shortages due to Ukraine's drone strikes against Russian refineries, asked Kazakhstan, Belarus and Azerbaijan to help ensure stable fuel supplies on Wednesday evening. The 7-million-strong Central Asian nation imports 90% of its fuel from Russia. Russia is also experiencing acute fuel shortages due to the Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow may ban diesel exports due to the growing domestic shortages. The Kyrgyzstan energy ministry released a statement saying that "to ensure sustainable fuel supply, official requests were sent to the government authorities of?Russian Federation?,...

Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a 'further increase in their 'output targets for August, when they meet?Sunday. This will add supply at a moment of falling prices, as the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. All sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity, said that 'no decision has been finalized. Seven members of OPEC+ (which groups OPEC, Russia and other producers) have increased their 'output quotas between...

The oil prices rose on Wednesday morning as investors reacted to the news that Iran will not be meeting with U.S. ambassadors. This puts further pressure on the interim truce agreed between both countries in the four-month long war. Brent futures increased 50 cents (0.69%) to $73.45 per barrel at 1208 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 63 cents (0.91%) to $70.13 per barrel. The White House said that Jared?Kushner, the son-in law of Donald Trump, and Steve Witkoff, the envoy, arrived in Doha on Tuesday for "high-level" talks, but Iran and Qatar stated they would only meet with...

Asia's crude oil imports by sea rose slightly in June, but they remained near their lowest levels?in over a decade due to the Iran conflict which crimped Middle East shipments. Data from commodity analysts Kpler show that the top importing region is expected to receive 20,71 million barrels of oil per day in June. This is up a fraction from the 20.39 million barrels of oil per day in May and almost 2 million more than the 18,77 million bpd received in April. The imports of Asia remain well below the average 26.79 millions bpd for the three-month period prior...

Indian sources in the refining industry said that several middlemen offered discounted Iranian oil to Indian'refiners' as Tehran tries to speed up sales following Washington’s temporary waiver of sanctions. After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days, allowing for a limited window to resume energy trade. Sources said that the Iranian state oil producer had allocated oil to Indian refiners through NIOC and intermediaries. "Apart from NIOC several traders contact us to sell Iranian?oil. One of the refining source said, "My priority is to give NIOC a chance."...

Trade sources reported on Friday that 'QatarEnergy' has released a tender to sell crude oil for loading in July and August. This is believed to be its first tender since the onset of 'the Iran -war. Producer offers Marine Land, Marine Qatar, and al-Shaheen crude. According to a tender document seen by, buyers can load or transfer via ship-to -ship transfer between Fujairah & Sohar. The bid will close on 29 June. The offer is a further boost to the rising supply of Middle Eastern producers. Iraq's SOMO, the state-owned oil marketer in Iraq, issued a tender?Thursday for Basra Heavy...