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The chemical industry in Europe is looking for a way to survive.

The chemical industry in Europe is looking for a way to survive.

After years of losses, and the rapid expansion of global capacities led by China, Europe's petrochemical sector is in disarray.

The European industry is struggling due to high production costs, and the ageing of plants. This has made the region more dependent on imported primary chemicals, such as ethylene, propylene and ethylene. These are the building blocks used in plastics, pharmaceuticals, and many industrial products.

Jim Ratcliffe said at a recent event that Europe was "sleepingwalking" into an industrial decline, referring to a unit found in petrochemical plant.

The billionaire, along with other leaders in the industry, has criticised a perceived lack of political action.

This month, the European Commission pledged to support domestic chemical production deemed crucial for its industries. These include ethylene and propylene. The European Commission plans to increase state aid for modernising plants and to require that public tenders prefer goods made in Europe, similar to EU legislation 2023 for metals and mineral.

It may be too late for the damage to be reversed.

It's like being aboard the Titanic - you can't remain in denial. Giuseppe Ricci is the head of industrial transformation for Italian energy group Eni.

Ricci, Eni's vice president of Versalis, said that the company's Versalis business has lost over 3 billion euro ($3.5 billion) during the past five years. This is despite the fact that the firm closed down Italy's two last steam crackers, and invested 2 billion euro in bio-refineries, chemical recycling, and other green technologies.

Dow, ExxonMobil TotalEnergies and Shell, as well as other global groups, are closing or reviewing the European chemical assets.

The majority of planned closures are aimed at crackers, which convert hydrocarbons to ethylene or propylene.

In a document published by eight EU countries in March on petrochemicals, it was stated that up to 50,000 jobs may be threatened by the closure of additional crackers in Europe before 2035.

Most EU plants are small or mid-sized, and their average utilization rate is below 80%. This level of utilization is considered uneconomical.

According to Wood Mackenzie, up to 40% of EU ethylene capacity, which is 24,5 million metric tonnes, faces a high or medium threat of closure. This includes shutdowns that have been announced as early as late 2024.

Robert Gilfillan is the head of Wood Mackenzie's plastics and recycling market. He said that "the proportion of European crackers exposed to risk is higher than other regions."

The United States and Middle East, however, use cheaper feedstocks such as ethane - a byproduct of shale gases.

NEW DEPENDENCY

According to ADI Analytics, North America's ethylene production capacity will increase to 58 millions metric tons from 54 million metric ton by 2030.

Huang Yinguo, CEO of the China National Chemical Information Centre, said that China will increase its ethylene production capacity by 6.5% per year between 2025-2030, at which time it will be producing nearly 87 millions metric tons annually.

This is more than three times the current EU capacity.

Chinese producers also build outposts in Southeast Asia for export to Europe and North America, to bypass Western tariffs and carbon taxes on China-made products.

In May, reports from the petrochemical industry organizations of Japan and South Korea stated that, due to their inability to compete, they have maintained low utilization rates since 2023.

The European Union faces a difficult choice. Either they intervene decisively, or the chemical foundation of Europe will erode.

In their document of March, France, Italy, and Spain demanded a "Critical Chemicals Act" as the latest EU data showed that the region was an annual net importer for ethylene and propylene in the period from 2019-2023.

Stephane Sejourne, EU Industry Commissioner, said that Brussels would identify strategic production and supply sites.

He told reporters in this month that "first and foremost, it's about sovereignty - keeping our steam crackers."

But sovereignty has a price. Citi analyst Sebastian Satz says that most European crackers have been in operation for over 40 years, while only 11 years are required to be considered old. Eni stated in a March presentation that ethylene production costs $800 per metric tonne in Europe when using naphtha, but only $400 in the U.S. with ethane. In the Middle East, the cost is around $200.

"SLEEPWALKING INTO DECLINE"

Some companies bet big on their survival.

INEOS operates in Cologne one of Europe's leading petrochemical plants. It is currently building a 4 billion Euro ethane Cracker in Antwerp, the first cracker built in Europe for over 30 years. The cracker will have a production capacity of 1,45 million metric tonnes of ethylene per year.

The plant is due to be online by 2026. It aims at competing with Chinese production while meeting local demand and reducing carbon footprint.

Consolidation is creating global giants in the Middle East.

Borouge Group will be formed by a $60 billion merger of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company with Austria's OMV. This will make it the fourth largest polyolefins manufacturer in the world. The company intends to export polymers into Europe and compete directly with U.S.-based firms as well as Asian ones.

Analysts believe that Europe's petrochemical industry will not disappear completely, but rather become the domain of only a few major players.

Enzo Baglieri is a professor of Operations and Technology Management at SDA Bocconi School of Management, Milan. He said that only major European companies will be able to continue producing ethylene. ($1 = 0.8604 euros)

(source: Reuters)