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Dollar firms as gold prices fall; investors watch U.S. economic reports
Gold prices fell on Thursday, despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. This was due to a slight increase in the U.S. Dollar Index. As of 0848 GMT, spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,346.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were down 0.4% at $3,393.80. Gold is now more expensive to holders of currencies other than the dollar, as it rose by 0.04%. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist for WisdomTree, said that the marginal drop in gold from this morning can be attributed to a slightly stronger dollar. Shah said that gold is still supported by signs that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates. After new data showed that U.S. inflation rose at a moderate rate in July, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that a half-point reduction was possible in light of recent weak employment figures. Gold that does not yield is more attractive in an environment with low interest rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields in the United States are also near an all-time low. Investors will be closely monitoring U.S. Economic Data scheduled for later that day, such as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and the weekly jobless claims to get a better idea of the Fed’s monetary policies. Shah continued, "The rate reductions are fairly priced in. But towards the end this year, we'll see a movement upwards on the gold market as concerns about higher debt really start to push the metal higher." While U.S. president Donald Trump warned of "severe penalties" if Russian President Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace, he also said that they could be quickly followed by another meeting that would include the head of Ukraine. The spot price of silver fell 0.6%, to $38.26 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.1%, to $1341.35, and palladium jumped 1%, to $1133.40. (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum in Bengaluru)
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Congolese mining firm rejects US accusations following sanctions
The Congolese company sanctioned this week by the United States has "categorically rejected" allegations that it is linked to armed group and mineral smuggling within the turbulent eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. Treasury Department announced Tuesday sanctions against Cooperative des Artisanaux Miniers du Congo, or CDMC, for what it termed the illegal sale of critical minerals from the mineral rich region of Rubaya. The U.S. sanctioned two Hong Kong exporters and the Coalition des Patriotes Resistants Congolais - Forces de Frappe (PARECO FF), an armed group that Washington claimed controlled Rubaya's mining sites from 2022-2024. CDMC claimed that the control of their sites by armed group meant they could not legally operate. CDMC stated in a late-night statement that "we are not the perpetrators, but the primary victim" of the conflict and plunder which have destabilized the region. The CDMC said that "the presence of armed groups like PARECO-FF, and more recently the M23 rebels, and their taxation on mining activities, have prevented CDMC to exercise lawful control over his concession." The sanctions are among the latest steps taken by President Donald Trump's administration to bring peace to the eastern Congo. Rwanda-backed M23 M23 rebels made a rapid advance in the region earlier this year. This led to violence which has resulted in the deaths of thousands. Rubaya is controlled by M23 rebels since April 2024. It produces 15% of all the coltan in the world. This metal, called tantalum, is used to make mobile phones, other electronic devices, and medical equipment. (Reporting and writing by David Lewis, Congo newsroom. Editing by PhilippaFletcher.
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Six policemen are killed in eight targeted attacks by Pakistani militants
An official confirmed on Thursday that militants in Pakistan's north-west carried out eight overnight gun-and grenade assaults against the police, resulting in six deaths. Police officer Mohammad Ali Babakhel told reporters that the attacks targeted police stations and checkpoints in seven districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province bordering Afghanistan. The nation, which has 240 million citizens, was celebrating its 78th Independence Day. He said that the militants had used rocket-propelled launchers to carry out some of these attacks. Six officers were also killed, and nine others injured. The recent spike in attacks is a difficult challenge for an overstretched police force that is the frontline in fighting militant attacks. TTP, a Pakistani islamist militant group that has links with the Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for these attacks. The TTP is a group that includes several Sunni Islamists groups. Since 2007, it has fought against the state in an attempt to overthrow and replace the government with its own version of Islamic Law. Since the TTP ended a ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani Government in late 2022, attacks have increased. According to an independent organization, the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), in 2024, Islamist militants will have carried out 335 attacks across Pakistan, resulting in 520 deaths. Pakistan claims that militants are based in Afghanistan, which is next door, where they plan and train attacks as well as train fighters. Kabul denies this claim.
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Second volunteer dies battling wildfire in Spain's Leon province
On Thursday, an official from the Spanish government confirmed that a second volunteer firefighter, who had suffered severe burns in Spain's northern Leon Province while fighting a wildfire, died of his injuries. Nicanor Sen wrote on X: "Today, we mourn the loss of another member of our team fighting fires," Nicanor said. Local media identified Jaime Aparicio as a 37-year old man who was trapped with another volunteer, near Nogarejas town, between two fronts while they were trying to create firebreaks using brush cutters. Abel Ramos died on Tuesday. This is the sixth death linked to wildfires this year in Spain. A man was killed in a fire on Monday near Madrid. On Thursday, wind and extreme temperatures fueled nearly two dozen fires in Spain. Around 9,500 people had to be evacuated and hundreds were told to stay home. According to the traffic authority DGT at least 14 roads are blocked. Adif, the railway operator, said that trains between Madrid and Galicia's northwestern region remain suspended. Spain asked European partners for help to fight the fires. It requested two Canadair water bombing planes. According to the EU Science Hub Joint Research Centre, fires have affected more than 440,000 hectares (1.700 square miles) of the eurozone so far in 2025. This is twice the average since 2006. Scientists claim that climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires across the Mediterranean due to the hotter, drier weather conditions. In Spain, after a long drought, record rainfall in the spring accelerated vegetation growth. This included undergrowth, which becomes highly flammable during a dry summer. (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum; David Latona)
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China's petrochemical industry set to expand despite deepening losses
The broader refining industry is experiencing a decline in profits due to increased competition. However, a key segment of China’s petrochemicals sector will see its growth almost double between now and the year 2028. Li Suoshan said that the capacity of ethylene production, a key component in plastics manufacturing, would increase by 40 million tons between 2025-2028. This will bring total capacity up to 100 millions tons. He added that the growth of traditional petrochemicals will slow down over the next five-year period, with margins likely to be weakening in 2025. Refiners in China are rushing to petrochemicals as the overbuilt sector is facing a squeeze of profits due to a weakening economy and rapid electrification. They not only reduce fuel prices, but also the demand for fuel. Fu Xiangsheng said, Vice Chairman of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation at the same conference, that losses in refining and petrochemicals had increased by 8.3% compared to a previous year. He added that both sectors were facing "involution", a term used in China for brutal competition which destroys profits. China is a country that has The rhetoric has been stepped up The sector is fighting against "disorderly price competition" in polysilicon, which is a component of solar panels. Already proposed Plans Reduce capacity. In China, where local governments are involved in many major projects, the question of how much and at what capacity to reduce is often a difficult one. Fu said that it is not appropriate to use a blanket rule related to size, usage or profitability when deciding which refineries should be shut down. Instead, Fu said the decision should be made by combining state policy with market forces. He did not give a specific time frame, but said that the price of petrochemicals would eventually rise as China deals with "involution". Yang Lin, Guosen Securities' principal petrochemical analysts said that industry associations were conducting surveys to gather feedback. He added that policies to reduce overcapacity could affect areas such as ethylene and refining. Reporting by Sam Li and Lewis Jackson, Beijing; editing by Jacqueline Wong & Kate Mayberry
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EUROPE GAS - Prices ease as heatwave ebbs, but Trump-Putin Summit in focus
The Dutch and British wholesale prices of gas were lower on Tuesday morning due to signs of reduced gas demand. As temperatures eased, and wind speeds are expected to increase, the market is still cautious about making any major moves before Friday's Trump and Putin summit. LSEG data shows that the benchmark Dutch front-month contract for the TTF hub fell 0.17 euros to 32.55 Euro per megawatt hour at 0822 GMT. The Dutch day-ahead contracts was down 0.30 euros at 32.05 Euro/MWh while the British day ahead price was down 1,32 pence at 79.0 pence per thermo. Ulrich Weber, LSEG's analyst, said that the demand for gas-to-power is expected to decrease as wind power production increases and temperatures in Europe cool down. He added that the French nuclear power capability, which had been reduced by cooling water problems, would also recover next Monday. Gassco data shows that the Norwegian gas supply to Europe is steady at 324 million cu metres (mcm), per day. Analysts at ING said that speculators may be reducing their risk by reducing net long positions in anticipation of the meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, which could result in a ceasefire, or more stringent sanctions. A ceasefire could lead to immediate price drops and increased speculation about a possible restart of Russian pipelines into Europe. Other news: British Gas owner Centrica, and U.S. infrastructure investor Energy Capital Partners, will jointly purchase National Grid's Grain Liquefied Gas terminal, Europe's biggest such facility. The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was down 0.44 euros at 71.30 euro per metric ton. Nora Buli, reporting from Oslo; Nina Chestney, editing)
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Ampol buys EG Australia for $718.9 Million
Ampol, an Australian company, announced on Thursday that it will buy EG Australia (the local unit of British fuel station operator EG Group) for a sum totaling A$1.1 billion (718.85 millions dollars). The move is part of Ampol's efforts to expand its retail business in Australia. Ampol would issue EG Australia Ampol shares worth A$250,000,000 and A$800,000,000 in cash. The funds for the acquisition will come from existing debt. Ampol has acquired fuel networks, such as Z-Energy, SeaOil and Gull NZ, in the past few years. However, some assets, like Gull New Zealand, were divested later. Ampol will be able to buy up to 500 Ampol-branded COCO sites, which would boost its retail growth. Ampol Chairman Steven Gregg stated that the combined network would have greater scale, and cost synergies will support strong earnings growth and returns for our shareholders. Ampol stated in a press release that the deal was subject to the approval of Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. The Australian Financial Review reported on the deal first earlier that day, stating Ampol had advanced discussions to purchase EG Group’s Australian service stations portfolio.
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India's palm oil imports in July fell as soyoil jumped to a 3-year high
A leading trade group reported that India's palm-oil imports fell in July due to cancellations of import contracts. Meanwhile, soyoil exports soared by a third year, driven by the competitive price and arrival of June consignments delayed, it said. India's lower palm oil imports, which are the largest buyers of vegetable oils in the world, could cause a buildup of stocks among top producers Indonesia, and Malaysia, and put pressure on Malaysian palm futures. Solvent Extractors' Association of India said that India's imports of palm oil in July dropped 10.5% from June to 855 695 metric tons. In a press release, the industry trade group said that imports of sunflower oil fell 7.5%, to 200,010 tonnes, while soyoil imports increased 36.9%, to 492,336 ton, which is the highest in three years. The SEA reported that the increase in soyoil imports boosted India's total edible oils imports by 1.1%, to 1.55 millions tons, from a year earlier. This was the highest level of imports since November. A Mumbai-based trader said that palm oil imports dropped in July due to order cancellations. However, they may rise in August, as refiners build up stocks for the festival season. In India, the demand for edible oils, especially palm oil, usually increases during festival season because of increased consumption sweets and fried food. The dealer stated that a significant amount of soyoil was being diverted into rapeseed oils as a substitute, since rapeseed oils are currently selling at hefty premiums over other edible oil. Six dealers said earlier this week that India's soyoil imports will surge 60% annually to a new record of 5.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. Palm oil is mainly imported from Indonesia and Malaysia. Soyoil, sunflower oil, and other oils are imported from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine. India's push to produce more ethanol has led its farmers to stop growing oilseeds. This undermines government efforts to reduce expensive imports of cooking oil in the world's biggest buyer.
Dollar suffers as stocks take a break and the Fed's rate cuts continue.
The U.S. Dollar was under pressure Thursday, as traders bet that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates in January. Bitcoin reached a new record high while global stock markets took a break from their blistering rally.
MSCI's measure of Asia ex-Japan equities remained near its highest level since September 2021. It took cues from Wall Street where the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq closed at new highs for a second consecutive day.
The MSCI All Country World Index reached a new record on Wednesday, and was nearly flat the following day.
The futures markets suggested that European and U.S. stocks were set for a muted launch.
Dollar falls to a 2-week low against a basket major counterparts as expectations for rate cuts in the United States shift. Comments from U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent have also sparked some bets on a 50-basis point reduction.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver three 25-basis point interest rate reductions this year, and two more by 2026.
CME's FedWatch tool shows that traders are pricing in the near certainty of an interest rate cut for September. The odds of a 50-bps cut, which is more aggressive, have risen to 7% from 0% one week ago.
Ben Bennett, APAC Investment Strategist at Legal and General Investment Management said that a rate cut is likely in September given recent revisions to the job market.
He said that "but inflation data remain sticky and there is no sign of serious economic downturn. So the Fed will likely want to keep its options open for the remainder of the year."
In the Asian hours, the Japanese yen was the biggest mover. It climbed to its highest level in three weeks at 146.38 to the dollar after Bessent stated in a press interview that the Bank of Japan would likely raise interest rates because it is behind in dealing with inflation risk.
The yen has also strengthened against the euro, British pound and other currencies.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he was willing to continue raising rates, but defended his decision by stating that "underlying inflation," which is based on domestic demand and wage growth, still falls short of the BOJ target.
BOJ policymakers are also hesitant to raise rates until they have a better understanding of the impact U.S. tariffs will have on Japan's economy and corporate profit.
CRYPTO SURGE
Analysts also point to recent financial reforms for a boost to the asset class.
Bitcoin is up 32% in 2025. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has increased by 41%. It's just a little bit shy of its November 2021 high.
Gold prices and crude oil prices rose a little bit on commodity markets after they hit a two-month high on Wednesday. Investors remained focused on the Friday summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump warned on Wednesday that "severe consequences would follow" if Putin refused to agree to peace in Ukraine. He also stated that the meeting could be quickly followed by another one, which would include Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Trump has previously said that both sides would have to exchange land in order to stop the fighting, which has resulted in tens and thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people.
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that while a lack of progress on a ceasefire could lead to new threats of secondary oil sanctions/tariffs, they saw a limited risk of major disruptions of Russia's supply.
Investors are also waiting for the U.S. producer prices inflation data, which will be released later that day. The retail sales report is expected to follow on Friday.
DBS analysts believe that investors will apply the "bad-news-good-news" rule. They will treat soft U.S. economic data as an indicator of lower yields, weaker dollars and a stronger risk appetite, while viewing stronger data as evidence to counter the narrative of easing. Reporting by Jaspreet Banerjee and Ankur Kalra in Singapore, Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Kim Coghill
(source: Reuters)