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Due to supply constraints, copper prices are nearing record highs.
The copper price ticked upwards on Tuesday. It hovered near the record levels reached in the previous session. This was after Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, and a Chinese smelter, agreed to a zero-processing fee for 2026 copper concentrate. This underscored supply constraints. As of 0332 GMT, the most active "copper" contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1% to 93,810 Yuan ($13325.28) per metric tonne. The benchmark copper price for the three-month period on the London Futures Exchange remained unchanged at $11,926.0 per ton. According to a Chinese market data provider, China's leading copper smelters plan to reduce production by more than 10% in 2026 to combat overcapacity, which has led to an increase in distorted processing fees for copper concentrates. After protracted negotiations, Chilean smelter Antofagasta has agreed to zero treatment charges and refining fees (TC/RCs). Miners pay TC/RCs traditionally to smelters in order to cover the costs of?converting copper concentrate into refined metal. Charges fall when the mine supply is tightened and smelters agree to accept less favorable terms in order to secure concentrate. Nickel, one of the SHFE's base metals, extended its gains for a 5th straight session. It reached a new high in more than 2 months, rising 3.6% to 122,750 Yuan per ton. The London benchmark nickel also rose, rising 0.5% to $16,350 per ton. This is its highest level since October 30. Nickel's rally has continued to gain support after the miner association of Indonesia, the largest nickel-producing country, announced last week that it will reduce mine production in 2026. Aluminium fell by 0.4% in Shanghai, while zinc and lead were up?0.20%. Tin was also up 0.1%. Aluminium, among other LME metals?nudged up 0.1%. Zinc was down by 0.1%. Lead added 0.1%. Tin gained 0.8%. Tuesday, December 23, DATA/EVENTS (GMT) Japan Chain Store Sales YY November 1330 US Durable Goods Oct 1330 US Gross Domestic Product Advance Q3 1415 US Industrial Production MM Nov The US Consumer Confidence Declined by 1500 Points The US Home Sales Units Oct. 2015: 1500
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Silver reaches new highs on demand for safe haven gold
Investors flew to gold as a safe haven amid tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. Silver also reached a new high. As of 0329 GMT the spot gold price was up by 0.9% to $4,486.41 an ounce. It had earlier reached a record high of $4,497.55 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery jumped 1.1% at $4,519.70. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that U.S.-Venezuelan tense relations are keeping gold in investors' minds as a hedge against uncertainty. Gold has risen this week, as part of a broader shift as U.S. rates are expected to ease. Waterer stated that buyers continue to view precious metals as a way to diversify their portfolios and maintain value. He added, "I do not think we have reached the high watermark for gold or Silver yet." Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump announced a "blockade", which would prevent?all oil tanks under sanctions? from entering and leaving Venezuela. Markets priced in two rate reductions for next year, amid expectations of a more moderate policy stance. Bullion has surged by more than 70% in the past year. This is due to a powerful?mixture of geopolitical risk, central bank purchases, rate-cut betting, de-dollarisation, and renewed exchange traded fund inflows. Frank Walbaum is a Naga analyst. He noted that the price of gold could be affected by geopolitical headlines as well as changes in expectations about rates. Spot silver rose 1% to $69.70, after reaching a record $69.98. The year-to date gains have exceeded 141%, and it has outpaced gold due to supply deficits, increased industrial demand, and investment inflows. Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone said that some consolidation could be possible over the holiday period, as liquidity thinned. He said, however, that the rally would resume once the volumes return. The $5,000 level is a natural target next year for gold and $75 for silver. The spot platinum price rose 1.2%, to $2,145.10 - its highest level in over 17 years - while the palladium price rose 3.4%, to $1,819.00 - a three year high, following gold and silver's strength. (Reporting from Sherin Elizabeth Varighese in Bengaluru and Arunima Kumar; editing by Rashmi Aich, Subhranshu Shu.)
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As mill maintenance and rising China port stock weigh, iron ore falls
The price of iron ore futures fell on Tuesday due to steel mills performing annual furnace maintenance, and a rise in?Chinese ports inventories. As of 0258 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore?on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange(DCE)?traded 0.64% lower at 775.5 Yuan ($110.30). The benchmark January Iron Ore at the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.49% to $104.25 per ton. The steel mills have annual blast furnace maintenance plans which are causing a decline in pig iron production. Port inventories are continuing to build up, showing a slight weakening of the fundamentals. SteelHome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.19% week-on-week, to 145.5 million tonnes as of December 19. Steel producers reported mixed results. Japan's crude output of steel fell by 1.6% in November from the same month a year earlier, to 6.77 millions tons. India's production of steel grew 6.1% on an annual basis against a 5.9% increase that was revised upwards for October. The dollar index, which measures currency against six different units, fell to 98.18 at the start of trading on Tuesday. It is still on track to drop 9.5% for the year. This will be its biggest annual fall since 2017. Dollar-denominated investments are more affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. The DCE showed a?mixed picture of other steelmaking ingredients, with coking coke up 1.04% but coke down by 0.17%. Mysteel said that China's supply of coking coal continued to tighten as of December 22. This was due to strict safety inspections and slower production at the end-of-year. However, a softer downstream market capped price increases. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange mostly rose. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a majority of steel benchmarks in the green.
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Oil prices drop as the market considers Venezuela and Russia supply risks
The oil prices fell in early trading on Tuesday, after rising by more than 2% the previous day. This was due to the U.S. saying it may'sell Venezuelan crude that it has seized. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attacks against Russian vessels and piers increased supply disruption concerns. Brent crude futures dropped 11 cents or 0.18% to $61.96 a barrel at 0100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude, fell 13 cents or 0.22% to $57.88. Brent posted its best performance in over two months, while WTI climbed the most since November 14, Donald Trump, U.S. President, said on Monday that the U.S. could keep or sell oil that it has seized in recent weeks off the coast of Venezuela as part of his pressure campaign on the country. Trump added that it could be used as a strategic reserve or to sell. He said that it would be smart for Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro to step down. Barclays stated in a Monday note that oil markets would likely be well-supplied in H1 26 even if Venezuelan exports fell to zero in the near future. Barclays, however, estimates that the global oil surplus is expected to shrink by 700,000 barrels a day in the?fourth quarter of 2026. A prolonged disruption may further tighten the market, reducing recent inventories. In the meantime, Russia and Ukraine launched attacks on each other's facilities in the Black Sea. This is a crucial export route for both nations. Russian forces attacked Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa on Monday night, damaging port facilities and a vessel. This was the second attack in less than 24 hours. Authorities in the region of Krasnodar, Russia, said that a Ukrainian drone attacked two vessels and two?piers, causing a fire to spread in a village. Ukraine has also targeted Russia’s maritime logistics, focusing on the shadow fleet oil tankers which attempt to bypass Russia’s sanctions over the nearly 4-year war. Market participants remain cautious, weighing geopolitical risk against the forecasts for ample supply by early 2026. This leaves prices vulnerable to prolonged disruptions.
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Trump: It would be a'smart move' for Venezuelan Maduro's Maduro leave power
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that it would be a good idea for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro if he left power. The United States can 'keep or sell' the oil they have seized in recent weeks off the coast of Venezuela. Trump's campaign of pressure on Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence and over two dozen military attacks on vessels suspected of trafficking drugs near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean or Caribbean Sea. The?attacks have killed at least 100 people. When asked if his goal was to remove Maduro from the presidency, Trump replied to reporters: "Well I think it would probably... It's up him what he decides to do. I think he'd be wise to do that. We're going to find out." He said, "If he does something, and he is tough, that will be the last time?he can ever play tough." Trump, during the press conference also "took aim" at Colombian president Gustavo Petro, with whom he had also been feuding throughout the entire year. "He is not a friend of the United States." He is very bad. He's a very bad guy. "He's got to watch his ars because he's making cocaine and they're sending it into the U.S.," Trump replied when asked about Petro’s criticisms of the Trump administration’s handling the tensions with Venezuela. Trump announced earlier that in addition to the strikes, he would "blockade all oil tankers subject to sanctions from entering or leaving Venezuela." On Sunday, the U.S. Coast Guard began pursuing an oil-tanker in international waters near Venezuela. This would be the second operation of this weekend and the third within two weeks. Trump said, "Maybe we'll sell it, or maybe we'll keep it," when asked about what would happen to the oil seized. He added that it could?also be used?to replenish the United States strategic reserves. Maduro, without directly referring Trump's remarks, said that every leader should?attend to the internal affairs of his or her own country. "If I talk to him again, then I'll tell him that each country should take care of its own internal matters," Maduro said in reference to a first phone call made between the two leaders a month ago. Steve Holland reported the story. Idrees Al-Ali (Writing) and Chris Reese, Stephen Coates and Stephen Coates (Editing).
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Australia shares reach a new high on the back of mining boom; RBA Minutes in Focus
Australian shares rose Tuesday, with mining stocks leading the way, as commodity prices firmed. Investors awaited minutes of the December meeting, due later that day, for clues about the monetary policy position next year. By 2325 GMT, the?S&P/ASX 200?index had gained 0.4% and reached 8,735.9. The benchmark index reached its highest level in more than five weeks during this session. The miners' index rose by 0.4% after briefly reaching another record high. Iron ore prices increased?on the tight supply of BHP Jimblebar and Jingbao Fines, while copper traded at a?record level. BHP shares rose 1.3% while Rio Tinto, a rival Anglo-Australian company, gained up to 1.4% and reached a new high. The mining subindex, which lagged the benchmark index in 2024, will?now add almost 40% to its value this year. The sub-index?received?support from its gold producing?constituents during a bullion rallie that helped to more than double the value of local gold stocks this year. Investors will closely examine the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting to determine the direction of the bank's policy in the coming year. The minutes will be released around 0030 GMT. The markets are pricing in a nearly 30% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point at its meeting in February. Shares of the data center landlord,?Goodman Group, rose 6.9%, reaching their highest level since November. The data centre owner signed a partnership worth A$14 billion (9.32 billion dollars) with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board for the development of data centres in Europe. Goodman's actions pushed the sub-index for real estate up by?2.4%. Financials heavyweights rose 0.2% and are on course for their fourth session of gains. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia's largest lender, rose by 0.6%. The benchmark S&P/NZX 50 Index in New Zealand gained 0.2%, reaching 13,530.44.
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Trump: It would be a'smart move' for Venezuelan Maduro's Maduro leave power
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that it would be wise for Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro if he left power. The United States can keep or sell the oil it has seized in recent weeks off the coasts of Venezuela. Trump's campaign of pressure on Maduro includes a stepped-up military presence and over two dozen strikes against vessels suspected of trafficking drugs near Venezuela in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea. The attacks have killed at least 100 people. When asked if the aim was to remove?Maduro, Trump replied: "Well I think it would probably... It's up to him to do what he wants to do. I think he'd be wise to do that. But, again, "we're going to find out." He said, "If he does something, and he is tough, that will be the last time ever for him to be tough." "He is not a friend of the United States." He is very bad. He's a bad guy. He has to watch his ass, because he is making cocaine and sending it into the U.S." Trump also announced that he would "blockade", all oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela under sanctions. The U.S. Coast Guard began pursuing an offshore oil tanker near Venezuela, on Sunday. This would be the second operation of the weekend and the third within two weeks. When asked what would become of the oil, Trump replied, "Maybe we'll sell it, or maybe?we'll keep it." He added that it could also be used to replenish United States strategic reserves.
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Gold, silver, and oil surge amid US-Venezuela conflict
The majority of major stock indices rose on Monday at the beginning of a holiday-shortened week. Shares of Nvidia were up, and the yen was stronger versus the U.S. Dollar after Japanese officials warned of "one-sided, sharp" currency movements. Gold and silver prices soared to new records, and oil prices rose as well after the U.S. Coast Guard started pursuing an oil-tanker near Venezuela in international waters a day before. Nvidia gained 1.3%. The company told Chinese clients that it plans to begin shipping its second most powerful artificial intelligence chip to China before mid-February's Lunar New Year holiday. The financials also increased. TRADING VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED BE LIGHT Trading volumes may be low through the end week, as the U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for Christmas on Thursday. The late November downdraft is the intermediate bottom which has brought many technology, AI and Data-center names down. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management in Plymouth Massachusetts said, "I do believe that's the bottom." He said that the market was "entering Santa Claus period", which is a time when stocks are typically strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 233.48, or 0.48 %, to 48 367.72. The S&P 500 rose 41.16, or 0.60 %, to 6,875.66. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 128.10 points, 0.55% to 23,435.00. European stocks closed down 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei finished up 1.8%, extending Friday's bounce. Atsushi?Mimura, Japan’s top currency diplomat, said to reporters that recent FX movements were unbalanced and abrupt, adding that government will take appropriate actions against excessive moves. Minoru Kihara, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, also warned about yen's continuing weakness. Investors interpreted the comments as an indication of Tokyo's intervention. The dollar fell as low as 156.88 yen last week, or about 0.5%. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting will be released on Wednesday. On Christmas Day, the head of central bank will speak to a Japanese business lobby. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields increased with the yield of 10-year Treasury Notes last up 1.2 basis point at 4.162%. Gold spot was up 2.3% to $4,436.29 an ounce, after reaching a new high of $4440.21. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $68.55 per ounce after reaching a new record of $69.44. Brent crude settled at $62.07 per barrel, up $1.60. (Reporting from Caroline Valetkevitch, New York, and Nell Mackenzie, London; additional reporting provided by Wayne Cole; editing by Stephen Coates; Toby Chopra; Rod Nickel).
Stocks and precious metals are rising; the yen is on watch
Asia shares and precious metals rose on Tuesday, as investors continued to buy ahead of the upcoming holidays. A reading on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected later that day.
The fragile yen has found a floor as traders remain alert for any indications of Japanese intervention to stop the currency's decline, which?has? picked up speed in the wake of the well-telegraphed Bank of Japan rate hike last Friday.
Investors will be able to catch up with a number of U.S. Economic releases that were delayed due to a record-breaking government shutdown in January.
The key data for Tuesday will be the third-quarter figures of growth, which are expected to show that the U.S. has continued to grow strongly.
The annualised growth is expected to be 3.3%. This is a slight drop from the previous quarter, due to a sharp decline in imports following a surge earlier in the year before the introduction of tariffs.
David Doyle, the head of Macquarie Group's economics, said: "Growth is expected to slow in Q4 due to the prolonged government shutdown, and a potential further headwind coming from auto sales."
The market was still optimistic ahead of the result. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose by 0.31% during early trading, while Tokyo Nikkei gained 0.1%.
Nasdaq Futures gained 0.11% while S&P 500 futures were barely changed.
Shares of Nvidia rose overnight after reports that the company had told Chinese clients they hoped to begin shipping "its second most powerful AI chip to China" before the Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, next year.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday approved Novo Nordisk's weight-loss medication, giving the Danish company a competitive advantage in the race for a powerful oral medication to shed pounds.
As we near the end of the year, investors are increasing their equity and commodity exposures. This is according to Jose Torres senior economist at Interactive Brokers.
"Traders are currently taking their cues from the general feeling amongst participants, that there is little standing in the way of a Santa Claus rally manifesting."
Spot gold and silver reached all-time-highs in precious metals. This was driven by the demand for safe-haven assets as geopolitical tensions escalated, with the U.S. attempting to seize more tankers transporting Venezuelan oil.
After rising on Monday due to concerns about supply disruption, oil prices have dipped a little.
Brent crude futures dipped 0.06% to $62.03 per barrel, while U.S. Crude fell 0.16% at $57.92 a barrel.
INTERVENTION - TREASONS KEEP YEN IN CHECK
The yen was the main focus on the foreign exchange markets as investors assessed the likelihood of an impending intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency.
Early trade saw the dollar at 156.57, up 0.3%.
Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance Minister, told Bloomberg News on Monday in an interview that Japan has the freedom to deal with excessive movements in the yen. This was her strongest warning against the currency’s weakness.
The BOJ increased rates on Friday at the end of its policy meeting for December. This was widely anticipated and Governor Kazuo ueda gave few hints about the future extent of rate increases.
"Their message was so unimpressive... You hike, but it needs to be with conviction. "They didn't walk with conviction," said Alicia Garcia Herrero chief economist of Asia Pacific for Natixis.
The yen had also been pinned to a near-record low against the euro and Swiss franc.
The dollar is losing ground against other currencies. The euro rose 0.12% to $1.1772 while the pound sterling increased 0.16% at $1.3482.
(source: Reuters)