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Gold futures record highs, global stocks rise
The global equities market rose on Friday, as investors held on to the belief that U.S. rates could fall even further this year. European shares posted their largest weekly gain in twelve weeks due to the strength of banking stocks. U.S. Gold Futures reached a record-high due to uncertainty about whether U.S. import duties would be applied to the most common sizes of gold bars. Investors waited for any signs of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after hearing that the United States was working with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. After Adriana Kugler abruptly left the U.S. Central Bank, President Donald Trump moved on Thursday to reshape it. He nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran as a temporary board member. Miran shares the same views as Trump who has criticized Powell for cutting rates "too late", despite the fact that growth is still holding and inflation is increasing. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank, Sydney's head of FX Strategy said: "It locks-in a vote in favor of rate cuts for all meetings from now until the end of the month." He added that "markets are already traveling with a very high expectation of a rate reduction." There is a question over whether he will be able to ratify the agreement in time for September's meeting. Bloomberg News reported on the fact that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as one of the leading candidates for Fed Chair. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.52%. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.47% to 42,175.61, S&P 500 gain 0.78% at 6,389.45, and Nasdaq Composite climb 0.98% to 21450.02. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.2%, finishing the week with a gain of over 2%. This was due to largely positive corporate results as well as firming bets on more Fed rate reductions. Prices were lifted from their five-week-lows last week. The stock market also saw an increase in shares due to the optimism that U.S. tariffs, which went into effect on Thursday, would be subject to negotiations. The SMI index in Zurich rose as traders shrugged off the 39% U.S. tax on Swiss imports. The shock is real. Now the question is, how and when will it impact the economy? Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier's economist, said that up until now the impact has been less than expected. Tariffs are higher than what many had expected in April. As a result, the relief over lower than expected duties could be short-lived. Chaar noted that the European Union has a 15% duty instead of the 50% Trump had threatened. "That is the vulnerability of the market... The focus is on the positive news, which is that you are not going to get the 50% but only 15%. The problem is that 15% represents a huge shock, and at some point it will show up in the data," said he. U.S. Treasury rates rose on Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note was poised to gain for the first time in three weeks following a series weak auctions. U.S. Customs and Border Protection published a ruling Friday on its website, which was interpreted by the gold industry as meaning that U.S. import duties could be applied to the largest gold bar sizes in the U.S. The December U.S. Gold Futures settled at $3,491.30 an ounce, up 1.1% from the previous record of $3,534.10 reported by the Financial Times. Spot gold slipped 0.08% to $3.394.24 per ounce. Brent oil futures closed up 0.24% to $66.59 a barrel, while U.S. crude remained unchanged at $63.88 a barrel. The expectation of a possible truce between Russia & Ukraine weighed down on the oil price earlier in U.S. trading. The economic outlook was also impacted by tariffs, and both benchmarks ended the week with losses. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3.9 basis points, to 4.283%. The Japanese yen fell by 0.44% in relation to the dollar. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.31%. However, the euro fell by 0.23%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at a loss of 0.63% while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.85%.
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Braskem US assets may face resistance from potential buyers
Three people familiar with the talks said that groups vying to control Brazilian petrochemical company Braskem would likely resist any sale of its U.S.-based assets. Brazilian chemical company Unipar has been in discussions to buy Braskem's plants in Texas and Pennsylvania for $1 billion. This was reported by the Brazilian newspaper O Globo on Thursday. Braskem confirmed to Unipar on Friday that they are discussing the sale unspecified Braskem properties. On Friday, Braskem shares rose about 3% while Unipar's shares jumped nearly 9% at the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that neither party vying for a controlling stake of Braskem is interested in selling its U.S. assets. One of the sources stated that Brazilian businessman Nelson Tanure who has been in exclusive talks for 90 days with engineering group Novonor (formerly Odebrecht) opposes this idea. One source says that IG4 Capital, a private equity firm, has a competing plan to swap Novonor's debt for Braskem when Tanure's 90-day exclusive talks with the engineering group expires this month. They would likely also oppose a deal for the U.S. facilities without a comprehensive future plan, the other source added. According to a third party, a sale of assets in the United States would also be contrary to Braskem’s stated strategy. Braskem, Unipar and IG4 declined to give any further information on the assets. Tanure and IG4 declined comment. Braskem CEO denied on Thursday that the company was interested in selling its U.S. assets. Luciana Magnalhaes, Brad Haynes and Kirby Donovan edited the article.
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Chilean prosecutor meets Codelco to investigate fatal mine accident
A top prosecutor in Chile said that on Friday, the country's prosecutors met with Codelco technical experts to investigate an accident last week at the El Teniente Copper Mine which killed six workers. Aquiles Cuillos, the prosecutor for the O'Higgins area, told reporters his office was in need of Codelco explaining various operations within the mine. He described them as "things which have been revealed by the investigation." He said that after the staff meetings his team reviewed four damaged levels in the mine. These do not include those where injuries and deaths took place. Investigators are taking photos of the locations to create a map that will show the extent of the damage. Cubillos reported that 3,700 meters of passageways were damaged by the collapse the day before. This is far more than the 700 meters originally estimated by the company. He didn't specify the extent of the damage, but said that it affected five or six areas in the Recursos Norte Unit and two or three areas in the Andesita Unit. El Teniente is home to about 4,500 km of tunnels. Codelco had asked Chile's mining regulator for approval to partially restart the mine on Friday.
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Lula signs a bill to relax Brazil's environmental licensing but vetoes certain provisions
The executive secretary to the President's Office said that on Friday, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva had signed into law a measure easing the rules for environmental licensing, but vetoed several provisions. The "Devastation Bill", as it is called by environmentalists and supported by Brazil's powerful agricultural community, significantly weakens the environmental controls of licensing processes. States and municipalities will have more authority to grant licenses for business development. Agribusiness has supported the bill, as it will make it easier to expand operations in environmentally sensitive regions. Miriam Belchior, executive secretary of Lula's office, confirmed that Lula had approved the bill, but altered or removed 63 out of nearly 400 articles. Belchior, speaking to journalists in Brasilia, said that the vetoes were intended to protect the rights and integrity of Indigenous and Quilombola Communities, as well as the integrity of licensing processes. She said, "We have maintained what we believe to be significant progress in streamlining environmental licensing." The provisions that were struck down are divided into two categories: 26 were vetoed in full, and 37 others will be either replaced by alternative text, or modified within a new bill. Belchior, Lula's former minister of foreign affairs, said that the Lula administration would send a new bill to Congress as part of a constitutionally-mandated urgency procedure. She added that this new proposal would introduce a "Special Environmental License", which will be designed to speed up strategic projects and fill the legal gaps left by the vetoes. Reporting by Lisandra paraguassu, Writing by Oliver Griffin, Editing by Joe Bavier & Rosalba o'Brien
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Gold reaches all-time high as gold prices rise amid Fed reforms
The global equities market rose on Friday, as investors held on to the belief that U.S. rates could fall even further this year. European shares posted their largest weekly gain in twelve weeks due to a strong performance by banking stocks. U.S. Gold Futures reached a record-high due to uncertainty about whether U.S. Import Tariffs will apply to the most common sizes of gold bars. Investors were looking for signs of an upcoming ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after hearing that the United States was working with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. The expectation of a possible truce put pressure on oil prices. They were also under pressure due to a tariff-hit economy outlook. Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, was nominated for a temporary board seat by President Donald Trump after Adriana Kugler abruptly stepped down. Miran shares the same views as Trump who has criticized Powell for cutting rates "too late", despite the fact that growth is still holding and inflation is increasing. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank, Sydney's head of FX Strategy said: "It locks-in a vote in favor of rate cuts for all meetings from now until the end of the month." He added that "markets are already traveling with a very high expectation of a rate reduction." There is a question over whether he will be able to ratify the agreement in time for September's meeting. Bloomberg News reported on Christopher Waller, the Fed Governor. He was a frontrunner for the Chair. MSCI's global stock index rose by 0.61% and is now nearing the record high set two weeks ago. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.56% to 44216.64. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% at 6,393.37, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 1.01% to 21458.14. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.2%, finishing the week with a gain of over 2%. This was due to largely positive corporate results as well as firming bets on more Fed rate reductions. Prices were lifted from their five-week-lows last week. The shares also rose on the optimism that U.S. tariffs, which went into effect Thursday, would be subject to negotiations. The SMI index in Zurich edged up as traders continued to ignore the 39% U.S. tax on Swiss imports. The shock is real. Now the question is, how will it impact the economy, the data and when? Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier's economist, said that up until now the impact has been less than expected. Tariffs are higher than they were in April. The relief over lower than expected duties could be short-lived. Chaar noted that the European Union has a 15% duty instead of the 50% Trump had threatened. "That is the vulnerability on the market. ... It is focused on the good news which is that it is not about getting 50% but rather 15%. The problem is that 15% represents a huge shock, and at some point it will show up in the data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is poised to gain for the first time in three weeks, after a string of weak auctions. U.S. Customs and Border Protection published a ruling Friday on its website, which was interpreted by the gold industry as meaning that U.S. import duties could be applied to the U.S.'s most popular sizes of gold bar. The December U.S. Gold Futures settled at $3,491.30 an ounce, up 1.1% from the previous record of $3,534.10 reported by the Financial Times. The spot gold price rose 0.11%, to $3400.69 per ounce. Brent oil futures are on course to drop nearly 5% in the coming week. WTI is also expected to end lower than last Friday's closing price. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3.9 basis points, to 4.283%. The Japanese yen has weakened by 0.35%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) edged up by 0.18%. However, the euro fell by 0.05%. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan closed at -0.63% while Japan's Nikkei rose by 1.85%.
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Petrobras Brazil sees little chance of additional dividends in this year
Fernando Melgarejo, the Chief Financial Officer of Brazil's state-owned oil giant Petrobras, said that the company has little hope of paying out extraordinary dividends in this year. He cited lower revenues due to a fall in oil prices worldwide. Melgarejo said that the company is not planning to change its dividend policy. The executive said that if revenue was lower, it would be more difficult to pay out extraordinary dividends. This statement came during a conference call with analysts following the company's results for the second quarter. We see low chances of having the extra cash this year to make a payment. Melgarejo confirmed the company's $18.5 Billion capital expenditure forecast for this year but said that certain projects could be revised due to lower oil prices. Petrobras announced on Thursday dividends and interest to equity holders of $8.66 billion reais (1.60 billion dollars) while reporting a net profit for the second quarter of $26.7 billion reais. According to Petrobras the average Brent oil price was $67.82 a barrel during the second quarter of this year, down from $75.66 a barrel during the first three month period. Petrobras' preferred shares traded in Sao Paulo fell by more than 5% Friday. This made the oil giant the worst performer on the benchmark Bovespa index, which dropped 0.2%.
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Kepler, a Brazilian silo manufacturer, reports weak results and looks to Argentina for growth
Kepler Weber, a maker of silos, posted lower quarterly results due to a weaker operational scenario in Brazil. However executives expressed optimism about the company's growth in Argentina. High interest rates and low grains prices have hurt Brazil's business prospects and profitability, but CEO Bernardo Nogueira says Argentina is a new avenue for growth as the economy and inflation in Argentina improve. Nogueira stated that the situation in Brazil was "dismal" as farmers had produced a record-breaking soy crop, which has pushed prices down globally. Brazil is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn, among other staple foods. Kepler reported that its backlog of silo orders increased by nearly 14% in the second quarter. The net profit, however, fell by 61% in comparison to the same period of last year. It was 14.4 million reais (2.65 million). Kepler generates most of its revenue in Brazil. 90% of the net sales generated by the company in the first half 2025 were domestic. Farmers in Argentina can invest more in storage as the economic crisis subsides. Kepler management stated that the country already accounts for 30% Kepler's overseas sales, compared to zero in 2023. Nogueira compared Brazil's most important grain-producing state to its neighboring country, Argentina. It's amazing what's going on there.
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HSBC increases silver price forecast on the strength of gold and geopolitical risk
HSBC raised its silver price predictions for 2025-2026-2027. It cited strong support from the high gold prices, as well as safe-haven demands in light of geopolitical, economic, and political uncertainty. The bank expects silver prices to average $35.14 an ounce by 2025. This is up from the previous forecast of $30.28. In 2026 they are expecting $33.96 per ounce, as opposed to the earlier forecast of $25.95. And in 2027 they expect $31.79, instead of $28.30. HSBC warned that silver prices are surging, but the surge is due more to silver's relationship with Gold than (to) underlying Fundamentals. Record-high gold exerts a "strong gravity pull" on Silver. Gold spot prices have risen 29% this year, after reaching a record of $3,500 an ounce in April, when the U.S.-China trade war erupted, triggering a move into safe-haven investments. HSBC has said that industrial demand for the metal may decline this year after four years with record growth. However, any decreases will likely be small. HSBC said that industrial demand for silver would recover in 2026 due to key sectors like the photovoltaic and electronic industries. The bank said that the demand for jewellery and silverware is expected to continue to decline due to high prices. Coin and bar demand, meanwhile, has been weakened by recent robust purchases as well as high prices. HSBC reported that the silver mine production continues to grow at a modest rate. According to the bank's model of supply and demand, silver will be in deficit by 206 million ounces by 2025. This is a significant increase from a deficit of 167 million in 2024. This is expected to shrink to 126,000,000 ounces by 2026. HSBC said a weaker U.S. Dollar this year as predicted by HSBC Research is a silver positive. Ongoing debates about Federal Reserve rate reductions and central bank policy could also impact prices in the future. Sherin Elizabeth Varighese in Bengaluru and Noel John, who reported the story; Jan Harvey edited it.
Russian drones hit SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine's Odesa region, sources say
Two industry sources confirmed on Friday that a Russian drone attack in Ukraine's southern Odesa Region damaged an oil depot owned SOCAR by the Azerbaijani state oil company.
One source said that four people were injured in the attack.
A source from the energy sector said that "multiple drones" struck the oil depot owned by the Azerbaijani SOCAR company this evening. The damage is hard to estimate at this time. "Several people were hurt."
SOCAR has 60 fuel stations in Ukraine.
In recent months, Russian forces have intensified their drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities far from the frontline.
Officials in Ukraine said that earlier this week Russia attacked a gas station used to import LNG imported from the U.S.A. and Azerbaijan as part of an attack intended to undermine winter preparations.
In July, Ukraine began pumping a small amount of Azerbaijani natural gas via the Transbalkan route. It also announced plans to increase imports of gas from the Azerbaijani SOCAR energy company.
Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president, is in Washington this Friday. He is expected to sign a first peace agreement mediated by the United States with Armenia at a meeting between Donald Trump and President Aliyev. (Reporting and Writing by Olena Hartmash, Editing By Louise Heavens).
(source: Reuters)