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Stocks and yields rise after a solid US jobs report
Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stocks fell ?on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth data boosted bets on a September interest rate hike by the Federal ?Reserve. The three major U.S. stock indexes all ended the day lower, in a widespread selloff before a 'three-day holiday weekend. Global stock index also declined. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 positions last month, following a 21,000-job increase that was upwardly revised in July. The economists polled predicted an increase of 56,000. This was after the previously reported decline of 23,000 jobs in July. The unemployment rate remained unchanged. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which is particularly sensitive to changes of monetary policy and was the last increase 4 basis points, at 4.37%, led this rise. The yield briefly reached a high of?4.4246%. This was its highest level since January 2025. The yield on Treasury 10-year notes increased by nearly 2 basis points to 4.78% after peaking at 4.812%. Bret Kenwell is a U.S. Investment Analyst at eToro, New York. He said investors would pay close attention to the consumer price report next week ahead of Fed's mid September decision. Short-term interest rate futures indicated that there was a 64% chance of a Fed hike in September, compared to 55% just before the jobs report. In New York's afternoon trading, this had dropped to 57%. The producer price inflation data will be released on Thursday and the consumer price inflation report will be published next Friday. Economists predict that the core CPI will ease from 2.5% to 2.4% over the course of the year. OIL PRICES, DOLLAR-UP The renewed attacks on the U.S. - Iran war this week has sparked a rise in oil prices and added to concerns about rising costs. The oil prices increased and finished higher for the entire week. Brent crude futures ended the week at $92.68 per barrel, an increase of 76 cents or 0.8%. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $91.48 per barrel, an increase of 18 cents or 0.2%. Brent crude increased 7.6% this week, while U.S. Crude gained almost 10%. This is because the Middle East remains a difficult place to supply oil due to the ongoing war. Adobe's 6.7% drop after its announcement that Anil Chakravarthy, an insider, will succeed long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 271.86 points or 0.51% to 53,414.25.?The S&P 500 declined 29.11 points or 0.38% to 7,718.60, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 77.07 or 0.29% to 26,506.99. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 1.09 points or 0.09% to 1,153.65. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index?rose by 0.12%. Dollar jumped following the jobs data, but lost some of its initial gains. The dollar index, which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies, rose by 0.21% at 99.17. However, the euro fell 0.12% to $1.1611. The dollar gained 0.26% against the Japanese yen to?156.19. The yen is surging this week as traders bet on more or quicker Bank of Japan interest rate increases. It's testing the 155.21 mark, which was last month's high following U.S.-Japan interventions. It will then reach its highest level since May 6 if it manages to break through this barrier. Spot gold dropped 1.2% to $4.419.09 an ounce.
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A Mexican lawmaker from the ruling party was found dead, with a gunshot wound a year prior to elections
By Lizbeth Diaz MEXICO CITY - On Friday, September 4, a member of Congress of Mexico's ruling Morena party, was found dead in Veracruz, an eastern state, from a gunshot wound. This happened a little more than a year before local and federal election. Zenyazen Escobar, a federal lawmaker representing the coastal state - home to many of the oil complexes in the country - was found dead with at least one bullet wound inside his vehicle. Lisbeth Lisbeth told reporters that the investigation file was being prepared, without providing any further details. Ricardo Ahued said that the vehicle of the legislator showed no signs of violence. Mexico's lower chamber of Congress sent condolences Escobar's friends and family, and asked judicial authorities to "conduct a thorough investigation into the fact." The death happened as the country prepares for elections to be held on June 6, to renew positions in mayoral, state legislative, city council, and gubernatorial offices. During previous elections, violence was linked to organized criminal groups that sought to control political figures by co-opting them. Data Civica reports that in just one month, there were 30 "political criminal violence" incidents in 11 states of Mexico. Of these, 14 were homicides. Zacatecas had the most cases, followed by Michoacan and Quintana-Roo with four cases each, Oaxaca with three, and then?Baja California,?Veracruz and 'Baja California, each with two. Data Civica defines political-criminal violent as threats, murders and armed attacks. It also includes assassination efforts, kidnappings, disappearances and assassination tries. The national?electoral?body INE has warned organized crime is a serious concern for democratic processes. According to INE, in the past, court rulings documented the presence of armed individuals who attempted to intimidate the public or 'coerce them into voting a particular way.
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Brazil Government projects $4.4 billion in revenue from the extra pre-salt auction by 2027
According to the annex of the budget bill submitted to Congress, Brazil expects to earn?22.4 billion (US$4.4 billion) in revenue from a pre-salt oil auction in 2027. This is a source of income that will be crucial in achieving Brazil's goal to post its first primary surplus since years. The government of Luiz inacio da Silva, who is seeking re-election this October, has projected an 18,6 billion reais surplus for next year. This would be equivalent to 0.13 percent?of the gross domestic product. It would be the first primary surplus for Brazil since 2022 if it is achieved. Officials from the government claim that the results of 2022 were distorted because part of the court-ordered payments by the government had been postponed after Jair Bolsonaro approved an amendment to the constitution capping these expenditures, which Lula later reversed. Dario Durigan, the Finance Minister, has stated that Lula would leave the next administration, regardless of the results, with a budget balanced and free from additional measures that require Congress approval. The auction of pre-salt oil in an offshore area off Brazil will, however, be crucial to achieving the fiscal target as the expected proceeds are greater than the primary surplus projected. Unnamed government officials confirmed that the money would be collected. A second source with knowledge of the plan said that the planned operation would include 'the sale of future revenues tied to the Federal Government's share of oil production. The government expected to earn?31 billion from an extraordinary pre-salt sale earlier this year. However, that estimate was scrapped by the end of May. The government claimed that the TCU federal audit court had questioned the model of selling federal government rights in the pre-salt area, and therefore it was necessary to remove projected revenues "until oil disposal model is properly implemented."
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Nigeria's SEC has approved a Dangote Refinery IPO worth $1.6 billion
The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the initial public offering (IPO) of 'Dangote Group Refinery's business.' This is Africa's largest-ever share sale. According to the statement, the IPO could raise up to 2.15 trillion ($1.63billion) if it is fully subscribed. The company plans to sell 4.1 billion shares of ordinary stock at 525 naira each. The terms were first announced on Friday. The listing will test the appetite of investors for one of Africa's most ambitious projects. The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, built at a cost of about $20 billion on the outskirts of Lagos, has transformed Nigeria's fuel market and emerged as a ?major beneficiary of supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, exporting jet fuel across Africa and into Europe. According to calculations, the SEC has registered 120.13 billion shares of ordinary stock in the refinery company. This implies a value of approximately $47 billion. The company stated that "with SEC approval secured, the refinery will embark on a historic offering which could broaden investor participation significantly in one of Nigeria’s most transformative industries ventures." Sources with knowledge of the issue said that the order book would open on the 14th September, which is in line with the timeframe set by Aliko Dangote - the majority shareholder of the group - on Thursday. Dangote Group refused to comment on when the offer was made. The refinery's major shareholder has raised cash to fund a planned doubling in capacity to 1.4million barrels per day. They have already secured a 400 million dollar underwriting commitment. Two sources from the company said that a formal signing ceremony will take place next week to launch the deal. AFRICA'S RICHEST MALE Market participants claim that the rapid growth of the refinery has helped to fuel investor interest in this share sale. First source: The IPO 'will include a greenshoe option that allows it to sell up to 15% more shares if the demand exceeds the supply. A private placement made in July showed a refinery's valuation at $40 billion. However, some analysts and investors say that this is high compared to other listed oil refiners. Tupras in Turkey, which has a similar refinery capacity across?four locations, has a?market?value of around $12 billion. Meanwhile, HF Sinclair of New York, with a capacity of approximately 678,000 bpd is valued at $16 billion. Aliko Dangote said at a Botswana business meeting on Thursday that he wanted to turn the refinery - which doesn't disclose financial details - into a company with a profit before tax, interest, depreciation, and amortization of more than $12 billion. Dangote is Africa's richest person with a net-worth estimated between $31 billion to $35 billion. He said he wanted investors across the continent, including Nigerian investors, to "participate" in the offering. This is not a Nigerian listing. In his Botswana address, he stated that it was an African listing and we would pay everyone, including Nigerian listings, in dollars.
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EU proposes a ban on exports of waste, including aluminum scrap, to non OECD countries
Sejourne’s 'cabinet' released a statement on Friday stating that the EU's Industry Chief Stephane 'Sejourne decided to propose a 'broad ban' on the export of wastes, including aluminum scrap, 'to non-OECD nations'. Sejourne was expected to announce long-awaited measures for trade on September 23. These would only limit exports of aluminum scrap. In the internal discussion, it was revealed that the tool could only cover?around half of the scrap import. The Executive Vice President has withdrawn the proposal in order to look at a different proposal that is independent of trade instruments. We are currently working on a?act delegated under the Waste Shipment Regulation. This delegated act 'will ban the export of waste including aluminium scrap, to non-OECD nations with some exceptions. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, based in Paris, is a group that includes mostly wealthy nations. However, it excludes China, India and many other Asian countries, which are the major destinations for EU scrap metal and waste. Since the spring, Europe's aluminum industry has been waiting on?the Commission to implement trade restrictions such as export duties. The announcement was delayed from June to September. Scrap metal is an important?source of raw materials for EU smelters that are struggling to survive. It also plays a key role in decarbonisation efforts. Recycling aluminium consumes?95% fewer energy resources than mining bauxite to produce metal. The statement said that the proposal will first be opened to public consultation, before being adopted by the end of the year.
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Holiday schedule for US economic and other data
Labor Day, which falls on Monday, September 7, will impact the release of major economic, energy, and commodities reports in Washington for the week ending Sept. 6. The schedule is below. The times are in EDT/GMT. Treasury announcements are subject to change. Monday, September 7 Labor Day. Labor Day. Tuesday, September 8, National Federation of Independent Business releases Small Business Optimism Index, August 0600/1000 Conference Board releases Employment Trends for August 1000/1400 Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases weekly U.S. Export Inspections for Grains, Oilseeds at 1100/1500. Note: this week's inspections are delayed due to the holiday. Treasury Dept. Weekly sales of 6-week, 3-, and 6-month bills are held at 1130/1530. NOTE: Sales of 3- and 6-month bills delayed due to the holiday on Monday Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Federal Reserve Issues Consumer Credit for July, 1500/1900 USDA releases weekly Crop Progress for 1600/2000. NOTE: This is a delayed release from Monday, due to the holiday. Wednesday, September 9 Mortgage Bankers' Association releases weekly "Mortgage Applications Survey", 0700-1100 ADP releases weekly NER (National Employment Report), Pulse, 815/1215. Note: this report is delayed from Tuesday because of a holiday Redbook publishes weekly retail sales index, 0855/1255. Due to the holiday, Tuesday's sales will be delayed. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. The American Petroleum Institute releases the weekly National Petroleum Report, 1630/2030. Due to the holiday, Tuesday's report has been delayed. Thursday, September 10, Labor Dept. Labor Dept. Commerce Dept. Commerce Dept. releases Wholesale Inventories of July 1000/1400 The National Association of Realtors?issues U.S. Existing home sales for August, 1000/1400 Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly U.S. Underground Natural Gas Stocks, 1030/1430. Schedule is not affected by holidays Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Treasury Department holds weekly?sale of 4- and 8-week bills, 1130/1530 Weekly?sale 1130/1530 of 4- and 8 week bills EIA releases weekly petroleum stock and output data at 1200/1600. Note: time change on Wednesday. Freddie ?Mac issues weekly U.S. mortgage rates, 1200/1600 Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. Weekly balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, 1630/2030 Friday, September 11, The Labor Department releases the Consumer Price Index for August; Real Earnings for August, 0830/1230. Labor Dept. USDA releases weekly?Export Sales at 0830/1230. Note: this report is delayed from Thursday due to the holiday. University of Michigan releases preliminary September survey of consumers, 1000/1400 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland releases Median CPI, August approx. 1100/1500 USDA releases monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates, 1200/1600 Federal Reserve releases quarterly Financial Accounts (Z.1) of the United States (1200/1600) Treasury Dept. Treasury Dept. releases Monthly Budget for August 1400/1800
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Drought affects Pilsner Brewers' prized Czech Hops
After a brutal summer, the growers of aromatic 'Czech Saaz' hops that are used in Pilsner Lagers around the world are looking for new varieties and irrigation methods to boost their faltering harvests. Jiri Smetana of the Hops Growers Union of the Czech Republic said that this year's rainfall was 60% lower than normal and temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) were record highs, which damaged crops. Smetana, at a hopyard in Steknik, near Zatec (whose German name is Saaz), said that this season had been extremely hot and dry. He said that "we expect a decline in the yield of 25% to 30% compared with the long-term mean" for Saaz. The crop is less potent and less bitter Smetana stated that the average total harvest is 6,500 tons. This year, however, farmers will be "happy" if they get a 5. Brewers had to 'use more' of the reduced output because it was less bitter and potent. Smetana stated that the breweries would be able cope with the situation due to pre-stocking. However, a poor harvest in 2013 could cause serious problems. Around 80% of Czech hops is exported. China is the largest market, followed by Japan. The Saaz Shine, which is able to withstand dry climates, is a popular experimental variety. It is only being grown in a limited area, but growers hope it will take off. This year was a real test for the?varieties. Smetana stated that we will be able to see how the drought resistance works, but for now, the plantation looks good. The problem is that Saaz has become a tradition for many customers. Japanese and 'Chinese customers, who are the main export customers for Czech Hops, view new varieties with some suspicion." According to the latest estimates, growers are building small reservoirs near plantations and placing their hopes in plans for a "major" new dam that will not be completed for 15 years. Saaz will also be fine-tuned for temperature and drought resistance and genetic modification.
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Stocks mostly decline after a solid U.S. job report
Treasury yields, the dollar and S&P?500 all rose on Friday as U.S.?job creation?accelerated and unemployment rate remained steady. Investors are looking forward to the consumer inflation report next week as a key factor in this determination. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 positions last month, following a 21,000-job increase that was upwardly revised in July. Economists surveyed by predicted an increase of '56,000 following a previous reported decline of 23,000 jobs in July. Last week, the yield on 10-year benchmark U.S. notes increased by 1.21 basis points to 4.774%. Just after the report, it was 4.792%. The yields on two-year bonds reached their highest level since January 2025. Bret Kenwell is a U.S. Investment Analyst at eToro, New York. The Fed will make its interest rate decision in mid-September, so the CPI report next week will be closely monitored. The short-term interest rate futures indicate a probability of 65% for an increase at the Fed meeting on September 15-16, up from 55% prior to the report. OIL PRICES DROP, DOLLAR UP Prices of oil have dropped from their recent highs. The renewed attacks in the U.S. - Iran war this week caused a spike in oil prices. This has added to concerns about rising costs. U.S. crude fell 1.6% to $89.87 per barrel and Brent dropped 1.3% to $94.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 98.46 points or 0.19% to?53.587.55, the S&P 500 declined 6.06 points or 0.08% to 7,741.65 while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 17.02 points or 0.06% to 26,601.08. MSCI's global index of stocks rose by 1.02 points or 0.09% to 1,155.76. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.04%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) was up by 0.2% for the day. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened by 0.41% to 156.45 dollars. Last time, the dollar was near flat against yen. Spot gold dropped 1.2% to $4.418.09 per ounce.
US Embassy issues health alert to Cuba amid oil blockade and sanctions
The U.S. Embassy in Havana has issued a health alert for Cuba, warning residents and travelers of a rise in diarrhea and intestinal illness due to a 'failing electricity and water supply.' This is happening as the Trump Administration continues to halt fuel shipments that are necessary for the power generation in Cuba.
The alert said that the U.S. Embassy had noted an increase in diarrheal illnesses across Cuba. This was associated with the continued degradation of Cuba's water and energy infrastructure. This degradation affects the water supply and food storage, as well as temperature control.
The U.S. alert comes nine months after Trump's administration imposed a fuel?blockade on communist-run Island, contributing to an increase in power?cuts as well as complicating refrigeration measures and sanitary measures for homes and businesses.
U.N. human rights experts called the Trump fuel ban a 'violation of international law. In August, a team of U.N. scientists?warned that the U.S. had tightened its sanctions on the island and increased the risk of disease outbreaks.
The experts warned that "the humanitarian consequences have already exploded into a crisis that threatens the rights to life, health, food, and development."
Trump's administration claims that sanctions are needed to force a?change in the island's governing body, an aim the U.S. has had for decades following Fidel's revolution of 1959. Trump has called Cuba an?threat' to national security in the United States.
Residents in Cuba have been complaining of a rash of illnesses that cause diarrhea, fever, and body aches for several days, leaving them bedridden.
In the Caribbean, it is difficult to sleep without an air conditioner or fan, and food preservation is impossible without refrigeration. The U.S. blockade of fuel has led to widespread blackouts lasting days.
The U.S. health alert issued on Friday warned?travelers to Cuba and residents to be "cautious" of "perishable food that has been improperly stored." It also cautioned against eating foods that have appeared to be sitting at room temperature.
(source: Reuters)