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Brazilian real surges, stocks edge higher as investors weigh Trump’s latest tariffs
Investors weighed the latest trade announcements by U.S. president Donald Trump on Thursday. The Brazilian real recovered from its losses after Trump announced a 50% tariff against goods from Brazil. Delta Air Lines, which helped Wall Street stocks rise 12% after forecasting profits for the third quarter and the full year above analyst's estimates, jumped. United Airlines and other travel stocks rose as well, with United Airlines up 15.3%. Trump confirmed late Wednesday that a 50% copper tariff will be implemented, with effect from August 1. The last time U.S. Copper prices rose on the day was late Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Brazilian real's volatility gauges reached their highest level since late April and the real fell as much as 2,3%. The dollar fell 0.6% last Thursday against the real while Brazilian stocks dropped about 0.5%. Brazilian President Luiz inacio Lula da silva vowed to retaliate against unilateral tariff increases and called for a ministerial meeting on Thursday. Some traders believe that U.S. consumer prices could increase dramatically on staples such as coffee and orange juice, if the Administration sticks to its Brazil Import Plan. The market's reaction to Trump’s recent moves has been milder than it was in April. This could be because investors are hoping that the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington, D.C. and its trading partners will result in an agreement before the deadline. Investors are also preparing for the second-quarter earnings and looking for any signs of impact from Trump's Trade War launched on April 2. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts said that the market appeared to be in a hold pattern before the S&P 500 company reports. JPMorgan Chase will release its results on Tuesday, which is essentially the start of the reporting period. He said that there was a lot of skepticism among the analysts who follow the S&P 500. They've all been reducing their estimations based on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding that. "But, we believe, after all, that those tech companies and growth companies will come up with fantastic earnings." I believe the market is still in a period of waiting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 259.72 points or 0.59% to 44,718.67. The S&P 500 rose by 21.75 points or 0.35% to 6,285.02 while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 34.47 points or 0.17% to 20,645.81. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 2.70 points or 0.29% to 927.00. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended up with a 0.54% gain. Bitcoin Rallyes Another all-time record. The largest cryptocurrency in the world has reached a new record high of $113.734.64. The price is up 21% so far this year. Investors digested the upbeat quarterly results of TSMC, which showed strong interest in artificial-intelligence applications, fueled by strong demand for TSMC's products. The dollar index measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The index rose by 0.28%, to 97.65. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields Investors focused on the impact of tariffs on inflation in advance of next week's key consumer price data. U.S. crude oil fell $1.81, settling at $66.57 per barrel. Brent settled at $68.64 a barrel, down by $1.55.
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Union says EPA must reinstate workers placed on leave due to a dissenting letter.
Leah Douglas WASHINGTON (July 10) - A union official wrote to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin Thursday that employees of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency who were recently placed on leave for signing a critical letter of Trump's administration policies should be reinstated. The 139 employees and hundreds of other EPA personnel signed the letter of June 30, accusing the agency harmful deregulatory action and ignoring science. Under the direction of President Donald Trump's directives, the agency is going through a major restructuring, which includes staff reductions, elimination of grant programs and grants, and environmental justice. In a letter to Zeldin, Justin Chen, the president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 238 which represents over 8,000 EPA staff, stated that putting the employees on leave constituted illegal retaliation. All investigations and disciplinary actions should also be stopped. Chen stated that "These employees engaged protected speech in a matter of public concern and their actions are protected by federal law as well as our collective bargaining contract." The EPA didn't immediately respond to a comment request. The agency has previously stated that it has a “zero-tolerance” policy against career bureaucrats who illegally undermine, sabotage, and undercut the agenda of the administration.
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The list of missing from the Texas floods creates uncertainty in the search for survivors
Authorities say that more than 160 people are still missing six days after flash flooding swept parts of Texas Hill Country, killing at least 120. On Thursday, thousands of searchers searched through piles and piles of debris covered in mud to find survivors. Experts in disaster response say that this figure is not necessarily accurate. The number of missing people in the wake of a disaster is often much higher than the death toll. Unable to contact a friend or relative, worried members of the public report their name to the local authorities. This information is then added to an ever-growing list. In the days immediately following the wildfire that devastated the mountain town of Paradise, California in 2018, the number missing people briefly exceeded 1.200. Local officials took two weeks to find all of the victims and months to locate every person who was reported missing. The fire claimed 85 lives, making it the state's deadliest wildfire. The FBI reported that more than 1,000 people were missing in 2023 after a wildfire destroyed Lahaina, a town on Maui Island. The final death toll was 102 by the summer of 2023. Josh Dozor is a former assistant administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and is now a senior executive with the disaster response firm International SOS. He said that the list of people missing could change in a significant way. He said that there could be missing people who are unaware they're listed. "There could be power problems, and someone's cell phone might not be charged. Shelters are full. It may take some time to reconnect with family members." Kerr County is a vast, rural county that has sporadic cell phone coverage in some areas. Over 2,100 first responders continued a mile-by-mile, painstaking search across the nation, hoping against all odds to find survivors, six days after torrential rainfall sent a wall raging water down the Guadalupe River during the early morning hours of July 4. Since the floods, no one has been found alive. Officials said that Kerr County had lost at least 96 residents, including 36 children. They gave a press conference on Thursday morning. Camp Mystic is a Christian all-girls summer retreat located on the banks the river. Officials said that five girls and one staff member from the camp are still missing. Dozor, on Thursday, said that the odds of finding someone alive after a flash flood in summer are decreasing. 'FLASH FLOODS ALLEY' Kerr County is located in the middle of central Texas' "Flash Flood Alley", a region that has seen some of the deadliest floodings. Early on the morning of July 4, more than a foot fell in less that an hour. The river rose in height from a little over a foot up to about 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures along its banks. On Wednesday, hundreds of Kerrville residents gathered for a prayer service at Tivy high school to remember the victims. Some students and adults hugged and held back their tears, while others prayed and sang. Reece Zunker and Paula Zunker were both former teachers at the school. According to the school district, their two children are still missing. Marti Garcia, an art teacher who was present at the event on Wednesday, said: "Zunker is a tough guy." "I had complete faith in his ability to overcome the situation." "I just had faith that he was going to pull it out." In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham informed reporters Thursday that, after discussions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem, federal officials had committed $15 million to disaster relief in the mountain village Ruidoso where, on Tuesday, flash flooding killed three people including two children and damaged hundreds homes. Lujan Grisham stated that some $12 million of federal disaster funding was money pledged but never paid to build levees in order to protect the community against flash floods following wildfires. (Reporting from Jane Ross in Kerrville and Rich McKay, Atlanta; Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Allen, Andrew Hay, Joseph Ax, Chizu Nomiyama, Matthew Lewis and Paul Thomasch)
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Holders of Venezuelan bonds ask New York Court to protect their rights
Holders of an important bond defaulted on by Venezuela's PDVSA state oil company asked a New York Judge to ensure that they can claim compensation in an expected auction of shares of the parent of Venezuelan-owned U.S. refining company Citgo Petroleum. Holders' claim in New York against Venezuela is still not resolved. However, if they obtain an injunction, they can block the transfer of Citgo Holding's parent company PDV Holding's shares to the winner of the auction. Last week, a Delaware court officer who was overseeing the bidding process recommended that a $7.4 billion bid submitted by group led by unit of Gold Reserve for PDV Holding be declared the winner. The auction, which is being conducted by a court, aims to repay Venezuela's creditors for the debt defaults and expropriations that occurred in South America. The Gold Reserve Group's bid is not a payment agreement for bondholders, unlike some other competing offers. Holders are preparing to file an injunction in Delaware if Gold Reserve Group's offer under the proposed terms is approved. Christopher Clark, the lawyer for the holders, said to Judge Katherine Polk Failla of the Southern District of New York that "we don't wish to interfere with sale" in a court proceeding. "We are only trying to protect our rights." Delaware is not a proper forum to do that. Leonard Stark, a federal judge, must decide in the coming weeks whether or not to approve this recommended bid. Stark anticipated that bondholders' objection to Gold Reserve's proposed transaction to purchase Citgo's parent company could lead to an increase in litigation. The 8-year-old case saw a first failed bidding round. Late in June, the lawyers for the holders informed Polk Failla that they would be seeking relief, such as an injunction to maintain their status quo, while the New York Court decides their case. The purpose of the hearing on Thursday was for lawyers to explain their planned injunction. Reporting by Marianna Pararaga Editing and proofreading by Marguerita Chy
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IMF: New US tariffs increase trade uncertainty
The IMF stated on Thursday that it closely monitored the latest U.S. Tariffs announcements. It said uncertainty about the global economy outlook was high, and encouraged countries to work together to create a stable trading environment. The IMF announced that it would provide more information when it updates its April World Economic Outlook late in July, before the new deadline of August 1, for trade negotiations. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, expanded on Wednesday a global economic war by imposing a new tariff of 50% on U.S. imports of copper and a duty 50% on Brazilian goods. Both duties will be effective on August 1. He also announced that he would be increasing tariffs on 21 other countries. In response to an IMF representative's question, "Trade-related development is evolving and uncertainty continues to be high", the IMF spokesperson stated. ? "Countries must continue to work together to create a stable trading environment and to address common challenges." Surveys released on Tuesday showed that worries over future U.S. Tariffs clouded the outlook for many factories in the United States, Asia, and Europe. However, some factories were able shrug off this uncertainty and continue to grow. Analysts say the softness of the surveys underscores the challenges that businesses and policymakers face as they attempt to navigate Trump's efforts to shake up global trade. Officials from the Trump administration claim that tariffs have not caused inflation and that a law reducing taxes approved last week more than offsets any temporary negative effects of additional trade duties. In April, the IMF lowered its growth predictions for the United States and China, and warned that trade tensions could further slow the growth. It cited the impact of U.S. Tariffs, which are now at a 100-year high. Since then, the economy has grown due to stockpiling in anticipation of tariffs. The U.S., as well as China, have also backed down on steep reciprocal tariffs. This could indicate a slight, if temporary, upward revision. Economists believe that uncertainty is high, and that higher tariffs are likely to hit harder in the second part of the year. (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft; Andrea Shalal)
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Thousands of first-responders are searching for Texas survivors despite the odds
On Thursday, thousands of first responders continued to comb through piles covered in mud and debris, searching for survivors, despite the odds, six days after flash flooding swept across the region, killing 120. Twelve states have sent search teams to Kerr County where most of the victims died when torrential rainfalls sent a wall raging water down the Guadalupe River at dawn on July 4. Officials said that at least 96 people including 36 children died in Kerr County. They made the announcement during a press conference on Thursday morning. A further 161 people are still missing. According to authorities, the last person alive found was Friday. Camp Mystic is a Christian all-girls summer retreat located on the banks the river. Officials said that five girls and one camp counselor remain missing. Kerr County is located in the middle of "flash-flood alley" - a region of central Texas that has experienced some of the deadliest flooding. In less than an hour, more than a foot fell early on the 4th of July. The river rose in height from a few inches to over 34 feet (10.40 meters) within a few hours. It washed away trees and other structures as it swept its way. On Wednesday, hundreds of Kerrville residents gathered for a prayer service at Tivy high school to remember the victims. The memorial held at the football stadium of the school saw students and adults praying and singing, some holding back tears and hugging each other. Reece Zunker and Paula Zunker were both former teachers at the school. According to the school district, their two children are still missing. Marti Garcia, an art teacher who was present at the event on Wednesday, said: "Zunker is a tough guy." "I had complete faith in his ability to overcome the challenge." Kerr County authorities have been questioned about what more they could have done to warn residents of the rising floodwaters in the early morning hours of July 4, and to get some to higher ground. After failing to obtain state funding to cover the costs, the county refused to install an early warning system. Officials have promised to examine the events in order to determine where they went wrong. However, their focus at this time is on rescue and recovery. In a special session, the state legislature will meet later this month in order to investigate and provide funding for disaster relief. New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham informed reporters Thursday that, after discussions with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Nuem, federal officials had committed $15 million to disaster relief in the mountain village Ruidoso where, on Tuesday, flash flooding killed three people including two children and damaged hundreds homes. Lujan Grisham stated that 12 million dollars of the federal disaster funds were money that was previously promised, but never paid to build levees in order to protect the community against flash floods following wildfires. Reporting by Jane Ross, Additional reporting by Jonathan Allen and Rich McKay; Writing by Joseph Ax. Editing by Chizu nomiyama.
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Analysts warn about the impact of Trump tariffs on shares of Brazil's Embraer
The shares of Brazilian planemaker Embraer plunged sharply Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced he would impose 50% tariffs on all imports coming from South America. Analysts have warned that the third largest aircraft manufacturer in the world, with a large market for its executive jets and regional planes in the U.S., will be among the most affected firms by the tariffs. Embraer shares traded in Sao Paulo fell as much as 8 percent on the news before reversing their losses and trading down only 5%. Embraer led the decline in Brazil's Bovespa index which fell 0.7%. SkyWest recently ordered 60 E175 Embraer jets. The demand for business jets has been high in Brazil, where Embraer has assembly lines. Analysts at Itau BBA said that 60% of Embraer’s revenues are derived from North America. Of this, three quarters of them could be affected by tariffs. The analysts estimated that Embraer could lose $150 million in earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) between August and December. Brazil's top imports to the United States are aircraft, oil, steel, coffee, and orange juice. Analysts at XP said that "although we see Trump's statement primarily as a negotiation tool, we expect investors to remain concerned given the potential impact a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would have for Embraer." They noted that although Embraer's jets are assembled in Florida, some of their content comes from Brazil. XP said that the tariffs may also affect demand for E1 aircraft in an inflationary climate. Embraer shares have risen more than 30% year-to date, after a 150% increase last year. The shares reached a new record earlier this month due to robust demand for Embraer's aircraft. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Gabriel Araujo)
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Mali military helicopter transports gold from Barrick's Loulo Gounkoto
Three sources confirmed that on Thursday a Malian military helicopter transported gold from Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex. This comes days after reports claimed that a court-appointed administrator intended to sell the bullion at the site to fund operations. Last month, a Bamako Court appointed a temporary administrator to resume operations at the largest gold mine in the West African nation. This comes nearly six months after Barrick Mining had suspended the site's operations amid tensions over the implementation of the new mining code. Barrick has said that it had to suspend its operations at the beginning of January after Mali’s military-led Government blocked its exports and detained its executives for two months. They also seized three tonnes of bullion. The World Bank was also contacted to help resolve the dispute. A brown and green helicopter landed on the tree-lined runway of the mine site Thursday morning. The mine's security team escorted its passengers to the plant where the gold is stored, according to the first source. Five hours later, the helicopter took off with the bullion aboard. The first source reported that one ton of gold, worth approximately $107 million, had been in the storeroom of the site since January. Three tons of gold were taken out and stored in a vault by a Malian Judge. Second source: The entire tonnage was taken Thursday. First and third sources, as well as a fourth source, said that the provisional administrator and former health minister Soumana Maadji plans to fund the mine operations by selling the gold. Three sources have said that the gold airlifted will be sold to this end. While drilling and other extraction activities have yet to begin, operations at the plant, which processes ore into gold, resumed on Monday, according to the third, fourth and another source. According to estimates, it takes between 11 and thirteen days to produce the first gold bars after the plant restarts. Barrick's and Mali's Mines Ministry spokespeople did not respond immediately to requests for comments. Makadji was not available for comment. Barrick and Mali’s government are in talks since 2023 about the implementation of a mining code which increases taxes and gives the Mali government a larger share of the gold mines. Reporting by Portia Crowe in Dakar, and Divya Raagagopal in Toronto. Mark Potter edited the story.
OPEC cuts oil demand for the next four years and says there is no peak in sight
OPEC cut their global oil demand projections for the next 4 years as Chinese growth slows. However, they raised their longer-term outlook based on the rising consumption of oil in developing countries. They also said that there were no signs to suggest oil usage had peaked.
The OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, pumps more barrels in order to regain market shares after years of cutting back to support the markets. A lower medium-term demand may make it more difficult for the group's other cuts to be unwound, as they remain in place through the end of 2026.
OPEC's 2025 World Oil Outlook, published on Thursday, predicts that world demand will average 105 millions barrels of oil per day in 2019. The OPEC expects the demand to increase to an average of 106.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and then to 111.6 millions bpd by 2029.
All forecasts of demand for 2026-2029 are lower than the previous year. OPEC has said that demand will average 106.3 millions bpd by 2026. This is down from 108.3 million bpd last year. The forecast for 2029 is 700,000 bpd lower than last year.
Compared to other forecasters, OPEC anticipates that demand will grow for a much longer period. BP and International Energy Agency predict that oil consumption will peak in this decade.
In the preface to the report, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais stated that "Oil is the foundation of the global economy and central to our everyday lives." There is no imminent peak in oil demand.
The report will be launched at the biennial OPEC Seminar in Vienna which brings together oil executives and ministers. OPEC denied journalists from and other news organizations access to its seminar. OPEC refused to comment about why they were doing this.
OPEC stated in its report that the demand has recovered from the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting a more stable outlook. OPEC also said that China's growth is slowing, the country which has been driving oil consumption higher over the past few decades.
The OPEC referred to China by saying, "This is due to the slower economic growth and the increased penetration of EVs with charging infrastructure as well as the continued use of oil in many sectors."
OPEC+ started to reverse its output cuts of 2,17 million bpd with a 138,000 bpd production boost in April. In May, June and July, there were monthly increases of 411,000 bpd.
Separate cuts of 3,65 million bpd are still in place by the group until 2026. On Thursday, two OPEC+ delegates stated that there had not been any discussion on the release of this extra oil.
GAP WITH IEA AND BP
OPEC's forecast for 2030 demand remained unchanged from the previous year.
The International Energy Agency, on the other hand, expects the global demand to peak in 2029 at 105.6 millions bpd and then to fall slightly by 2030, said the advisor to industrialised nations last month.
OPEC believes that India, the Middle East, and Africa will drive the growth in the long term. OPEC says that developments such as the U.S. leaving the United Nations Climate Pact and a lower EV penetration rate will influence behavior and slow down the energy transition for developing countries.
OPEC predicts that the world's oil demand will reach 122.9 millions barrels per day in 2050. This is up from the 120.1 million bpd predicted in last year’s report. This is far higher than other industry forecasts for 2050, such as those of BP.
OPEC is calling for increased investment in the oil industry. The sector will need to spend $18,2 trillion by 2050 compared to $17,4 trillion estimated last year.
(source: Reuters)