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The share of Russian Aluminium in LME stocks has increased to 95% by June
Exchange data revealed?on Friday that the share of Russian-origin aluminum stocks in London Metal Exchange storage warehouses increased to 95% from 93% in may. This leaves only a small amount of Indian aluminium as an alternative. The total available or on-warrant aluminium inventories (0#MALSTXLOC>) fell by 3% to 246,600 tons in June, the lowest level since April 2025. This was due to the global supply being tightened as a result of the conflict in?Middle East. The available Russian aluminium inventories fell by 3,150 tons to 234,025 in June. However, their share of the total inventories rose as Indian stocks declined by an even greater 4,875 tons. At the end of June, there were only 12,575 metric tons of Indian aluminium in LME's warehouses. No other country was represented. Despite the fact that material produced prior to April 13, 2024 is still eligible for trading, many traders are avoiding Russian metal. Aluminum produced in Russia after April 13, 2024 was banned from the LME warehouse system as a result of Western sanctions. The share of Chinese copper in the available LME Copper Stocks 0#MCUSTX-LOC> increased to 59% in June, from 53% in may. The increase occurred despite a decrease in the volume of Chinese Copper by 22,375 tonnes to 118.650 tons. Stocks from Australia, Chile Peru and South Korea were also declining. The total available copper stock decreased by 65.175, to 201.700 tonnes, the lowest level since February. At the end last month, the share of?nickel of Chinese origin was reduced to?70% compared with 75% at May's end. Reporting by Tom Daly. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Oil market mapping: Unfinished business may mean more pain in the future
The U.S. price of oil has fallen by nearly 40% since May. This has also brought down the cost of gasoline. However, technical analysis indicates that there is still a risk of another move upward. Click here for a more detailed chart. According to LSEG, there are two price gaps on the oil charts, one between May 19-20, and another between June 12-15. In many markets, gaps are unfilled spaces in the price charts. The traders believe that'such gaps will eventually be filled. Prices typically trade through the range before settling on a different direction. Oil is currently trading at around $70 per barrel. The closest gap lies between the?June 12 close of $84.88 a barrel and the June 15 opening of $81.40. The renewed friction between the U.S. This week, Iran and the United States pushed crude oil just above $76, moving closer to this zone but still not closing it. Second, and more distant, is the gap between the close on May 19, $107.77, and the open on May 20, $104.12. Since it took about a month-and-a-half for prices to drop from these levels, drivers could be charged more if they fill that gap. Prices could continue to fall if gaps are not filled. The longer U.S. - Iran tensions continue and prices remain near their current levels, the more powerful the pull may be. The chart below shows: There are still two price gaps above current oil prices * Nearest gap: $81.40-$84.88 (June ?12-15) * Higher gap: $104.12-$107.77 (19-20 May)
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UN agency reports that dust storms will be record-breaking along the US-Mexico border in China and 2025.
In a report released on Friday, the World 'Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said that in 2025 record-breaking dust and sand storms will hit parts of China, the U.S. border region, and the border region between Mexico and the United States. These storms are expected to disrupt?transportation, damage health, as well as the environment. The report concluded that in April 2025, dust from Mongolia caused China's worst dust and sand storm for a decade. This was measured by intensity, length?and geographic reach. Dust?storms along the U.S./Mexico border were unusually intense and frequent. El Paso in Texas recorded 50 dust-weather days between 2025 and 2026, which is more than double what it averaged annually, and is the highest number since the "Dust Bowl disaster" of the 1930s. The Bodele Depression, in Chad is one of the most active dust regions on earth. Around 2 billion tonnes of dust are released into the atmosphere every year. Most of it originates in desert areas such as the Sahara Desert, Gobi Desert and Arabian Desert. Dust transport is a normal process. However, factors such as drought, poor land-management and environmental degradation contribute to the problem. The report said that although global average dust levels remained largely unchanged from the previous year, severe regional dust events showed a growing risk posed by dust and sand storms which affect over 150 countries around the world. Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus
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EGA will ramp up Al Taweelah's alumina refinery within days to 50% capacity
Emirates Global Aluminium announced on Friday that its Al Taweelah refinery in Abu Dhabi had restarted the production of feedstock for aluminum smelting. The restart has raised expectations of a faster than expected recovery in aluminium production, after disruptions caused by war with Iran. It also added pressure on benchmark prices for aluminum at the London Metal Exchange. The contract was last down 1.5%, at $3.152 per metric ton. In early July, EGA announced that it would restore production at the Al Taweelah Complex earlier than expected, although hot metal production could take up to one year to return to previous levels. In late March, Iranian missiles struck the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi and damaged the complex. This forced an emergency shut down. Al Taweelah's refinery will produce?2.4 millions of tons of alumina by 2025 and meet 46% of EGA’s alumina requirements. EGA said in a press release that the timing of "further production ramp ups" at the alumina refinery would depend on the supply chain conditions as well as the optimization of EGA's alumina procurement strategy. The company, which is jointly owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala, and state-owned Investment Corporation of Dubai, hopes to have the technical ability to return the alumina refining plant to full production before the end of 2026. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Tom Daly and Polina Devitt)
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As tensions between the US and Iran fuel fears of rate hikes, gold is expected to lose value this week
Gold was down on Friday, and set to suffer a weekly loss. Rising crude oil prices and the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States fueled fears that Federal Reserve might continue to tighten monetary policy. Gold spot fell 0.6%, to $4,098.46 an ounce, by 0906 GMT. This is a decline of nearly 2% in a week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.8% to $4107.70 an ounce. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, said that spot?prices could test $4,000 per ounce again as a psychological support if tensions continue to escalate and oil prices extend their recovery. After Washington's attack on?Iran?s eastern and southern coast regions, the oil market was set to see a weekly gain after Iranian forces attacked U.S. military installations in Gulf States. Energy prices may increase inflation, which could?push? central banks to raise their interest rates. This tends to put pressure on gold, as the metal offers no return. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets are pricing in 58% of a rate hike for September. Investors will be watching closely the U.S. inflation figures due next week, as well as Kevin Warsh's testimony. Tan stated that the U.S. CPI may be the "next big catalyst" for spot gold if Warsh continues to stick with his mantra and not give away much by way of forward guidance. Tan also added that a change in the Fed's hawkish position is unlikely unless?a sustained moderated in?U.S. inflation. The minutes of the Fed's meeting in June showed that inflation was a growing concern. Some policymakers were in favour of a rate increase before rates remained unchanged. Gold prices in India were at a discount this week due to price volatility, but demand in China was steady, with the central banks reporting their 'largest increase in monthly gold reserves in more than two-and-a half years in June. Silver spot fell by 0.7%, to $59.54 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.2%, to $1613.60, and palladium increased 1.9%, to $1270.89. All three metals are on course for a loss this week. (Reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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India's ONGC plans 13 million bbl of national strategic oil reserves
India's Oil?and?Natural?Gas Corp. will build a 1,75 million metric tons (about 13,000,000 barrels) strategic petroleum reserve at Mangalore, in southern India. The company announced this in a late-night stock exchange filing on Thursday. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, was severely affected by the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz - during the Iran War. Around a fifth (25%) of all energy in the world passes through this?waterway. India has increased its energy cooperation, with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Japan and others, in order to strengthen its emergency stockpile. In a filing, ONGC, India’s largest oil exploration company, said it would ask the federal government for permission to use the storage facility in the commercial interest of the country. New Delhi allows the commercial use of a portion of its strategic storage located at three locations in southern India - Mangalore Padur and Vizag. This storage can store up to 5,33 MT crude. The Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd., a government-owned company, manages these storage facilities. ONGC did not specify the cost or time required to complete the new SPR facility in Mangalore. India's strategic?stockpiles represent a small fraction of the country's 5.2 million barrels a day refining capability. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is a subsidiary of ONGC and operates a refinery with a capacity of 300,000 bpd in Mangalore. It has already leased the half of 1.5 MT of?Mangalore spr, and the remaining capacity is leased by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. from the United Arab Emirates. ADNOC, during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the UAE in early this year, announced plans to "increase crude storage in India up to 30,000,000 barrels." ADNOC announced that it would also explore the possibility of storing crude oil at Fujairah, as part of India's strategic reserves. India is also planning to build a strategic storage facility of about 4 MT at Chandikhol, in eastern Odisha. A new 2.5 MT facility will be built at Padur, in southern India. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich and Susan Fenton; Nidhi verma)
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Aluminum falls during EGA alumina startup, but still on track for weekly increase
Aluminium prices dropped sharply on Friday after Emirates Global Aluminium announced that it had restarted its United Arab Emirates refinery following a '3-1/2 month outage. This is a further sign that metal production within the Gulf region will soon be returning. EGA's Al Taweelah refining plant in the industrial zone housing the plant halted production of alumina (a white substance that is used to produce aluminium) on March 28, following Iranian attacks. The strikes forced the closure of the Al?Taweelah smelter which had been slowly restoring production from May 26. Alumina accounts for approximately?40% in smelters production costs. After EGA's announcement, benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange dropped as much as 1.5 %?to $3153.50 per metric ton and was trading at $3154 as of 830 GMT. Metal, which is used in packaging and transport, is on track to end the week with a 2.1% gain, after five consecutive weekly losses. This comes as the renewed attacks from the U.S. Al Taweelah refinedry produced 2.4 millions tons of alumina by 2025, which met 46% EGA's requirements, according to a firm statement. The firm also said that they expected to ramp up to 50% capacity within days and have the capability to restore production to full levels by year-end. The?prospects of EGA's aluminium and alumina flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and to export markets are uncertain, and LME aluminum inventories The lowest level since September 2022. The cash LME Aluminium contract was trading at $7.50 per ton over the forward three-month contract The remained in its reversed position for a second consecutive day, as a sign that physical availability will be tighter in the near future. Copper edged up by?0.1% at $13,501 per ton, and was on track for a weekly increase of 0.9%. Nickel fell 0.4%, to $16,520. Tin dropped 0.5%, to $53,385; and zinc fell 0.4%, to $3,611. (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar, Sonia Cheema, and Solomon Cefai)
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Weekly gain in oil heads as Middle East supply risk persists
The oil price fell on 'Friday, but remained on course for a weekly gain as renewed U.S. - Iran fighting disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This stoked concerns about supply disruptions. Brent futures fell 68 cents or 0.9% to $75.62 per barrel at 0817 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which is a blend of U.S. and Canadian crudes, fell 64 cents or 0.9% to $71.44. Brent was expected to gain about 5% this week and WTI would increase by about 4%. Vandana Hari, an analyst at Vanda Insights who provides oil market analyses, said that although prices have fallen from their midweek highs there is still "substantial" risk as Hormuz Transits are now back to a standstill. On Thursday, the Iranian military launched attacks against U.S. military facilities in Gulf states?after U.S. airstrikes on Iran's eastern and southern provinces. This further strained a fragile ceasefire. Iranian media reported that there were multiple explosions in southern Iran. Bushehr, one of Iran's nuclear power plants, was also in the area. According to the International Energy Agency, the recent escalation of hostilities between Iran and the United States could change its forecast for a significant surplus on the oil market next year. These developments have also delayed the full reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carried around 20% of global oil and gas supply daily before the beginning of the war, on February 28. According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, the lack of new U.S. attacks on Iran over night is likely to be weighing on the oil?prices. However, a decline in the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz limits the 'downside. Ship-tracking data revealed that tanker traffic in the strait had slowed to a standstill on Thursday as owners weighed the risks after Iran struck a Qatari LNG vessel leaving the waterway near Oman, triggering the latest strikes. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that on Wednesday he didn't think that war would resume and that "anything" that happened was going to be resolved very quickly. "Despite 'the U.S. ramping-up attacks on military.sites in Iran, market drew a little reassurance from Trump administration's refusal to target Iranian energy infrastructure", said ANZ commodities strategist Daniel Hynes.
UAE ready to boost oil production if market demand arises
United Arab Emirates' energy minister stated on Thursday that the country could increase its oil production after 2027, if the market demands it. This move could push the country into the top five oil producing countries in the world.
OPEC granted the UAE a larger production quota for this year. The country argued that it was restricting too much its output after investing heavily to increase capacity from 3 million barrels to 4,85 million.
Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei, Energy Minister of the country, told reporters that capacity could increase further after 2027.
He said that if the market demanded it, they could go up to 6 million. However, this was not an officially set target.
The UAE could cover just under 6 percent of the global demand if they were to reach this level.
It will also be the fourth largest oil and liquids producer on the planet, only behind the United States of America, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. These countries can produce around 21 million barrels, 12 millions, and 10-12million respectively.
The UAE will surpass the oil production of Canada, China and Iraq in 2024 with a 6 million barrel per day output. (Reporting and writing by OPEC Newsroom, Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Mark Heinrich & Tomaszjanowski)
(source: Reuters)