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REFILE - Asian stocks fall as US jobs do not clear the rate outlook. Tech is also hammered.
Investors have returned to selling riskier assets, even after Nvidia’s stellar earnings. Japan's Nikkei fell 2% Friday. Australia's resource-heavy stocks dropped 1.4%. South Korea's shares plunged almost 4 percent. Wall Street plunged overnight after temporary relief due to Nvidia’s stellar predictions, as fears of inflated tech stocks returned. This resulted in the Nasdaq’s largest one-day swings since April 9, when President Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day tariffs" spooked the markets. The data showed that the U.S. added more jobs in September than was expected, but the Federal Reserve is still unsure about whether it needs to cut interest rates next month in order to boost the labor market. Treasury yields dropped as futures moved up to indicate a 40% likelihood of a U.S. interest rate cut in December. This is an increase from 30% the day before, but not enough to convince the investors that a move will be made by December. The next payrolls data won't be available until after the Fed meeting. The markets were awash with optimism and Nvidia's impressive quarterly results sparked Wall Street to action. "The U.S. job data was also as good as one could hope for," said Kyle Rodda a senior analyst with Capital.com. "However, momentum was simply not there to drive the rally, as two key risk events passed - both of which had positive outcomes - but not enough to stop the current bearishness on the markets." Fed officials are more concerned about the stability of financial markets, and they're also worried about a possible sharp fall in asset prices. They debate whether or not to further cut interest rates. Beth Hammack, the Cleveland Fed president, warned on Thursday of the wide range risks that a rate cut now could have for our economy. Fed Governor Lisa Cook is concerned about the risk of asset prices falling by a large amount. The dollar surged on the currency market, hitting three-month highs on the Aussie, and a new seven-month peak on the Kiwi. The dollar was stable at 157.50, after scaling a 10-month high of 157.9 over night, as traders were on alert for any intervention by Japanese authorities due to the rapid drop in yen. The data showed that Japan's core prices for consumer goods rose by 3% in October. This has kept alive the expectation of an interest rate increase within a short time frame. The yen has been weakened by the prospect of an economic stimulus package from Japan's newly formed government led by Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi. Friday, the government will unveil a stimulus package of over 20 trillion yen - the largest since COVID-19. Treasuries rose over night as investors increased bets on a Fed rate cut next month. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell 1 basis point overnight to 3.545%. They had fallen 4 basis points the previous day. Meanwhile, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds was unchanged at 4.092% after having dipped 3 basis points overnight. Early oil prices dropped. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 0.9% to $58,47 and has been down 2.7% for the week. The spot gold price was flat overnight at $4,077 an ounce.
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Rugby-Schmidt spares 'dead horses' Wallabies from the whip before France Test
After a week of light training, Australia's coach Joe Schmidt is frustrated by his team's mental and physical fatigue. The Wallabies have lost all three of their matches on this season-ending European tour. They will face a tough challenge in Paris against the Six Nations Champions on Saturday. Schmidt stated that fatigue was not an excuse for Australia's poor performance in Dublin following the 46-19 defeat to Ireland. On Thursday, he said he gave the squad Monday to recover before their 15th Test of 2025. Schmidt told reporters, "We cut our cloth according to what people feel. You cannot flag a dead animal." "I've never been in the test window so long. "I don't think I have taken a long break since we began. It was only eight days." It's more mental and emotional than physical fatigue. "That has been a challenge." Schmidt made five changes in the starting 15, including bringing back Carter Gordon, who had completed the concussion protocol to replace dropped flyhalf James O'Connor. Kalani Thomas, the Queensland Reds' halfback, will be hoping to make his debut from the bench. The Australian media speculated that O'Connor, 35, may have played his final Wallabies match. Schmidt did not exclude the Leicester playmaker's participation in the 2027 home World Cup. Schmidt, who coached the Irish flyhalf at the time, said: "I thought Johnny Sexton excelled in the World Cup (2023). James won't even be that old at that point." "I don't think that age is a factor that will necessarily tip the balance." Reporting by Ian Ransom, Melbourne; Editing and proofreading by Christian Radnedge
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Oil slides as US pushes for Russia-Ukraine peace deal
Oil prices dropped on Thursday, as U.S. president Donald Trump's administration pressed Ukraine to accept a peace deal with Russia that would end a three-year war. Brent crude futures fell 32 cents or 0.5% to $63.19 per barrel at 11:54 AM CDT (1754 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures dropped 47 cents or 0.79% to $58.97. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that the U.S. crude oil supply was lower than expected. This led to a rebound in both benchmarks on Thursday. The U.S. and Russia peace proposal includes the concession of Ukrainian territory to Russia as well as a reduction in Ukraine's military forces. Both of these proposals were previously rejected by Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Zelenskiy announced on Thursday that he would review the proposal and consult with the United States regarding the peace plan. Phil Flynn is a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. He said, "A lot people thought that this new proposal was dead on arrival, but Zelenskiy didn't dismiss the idea out of hand." The billion-dollar question now is whether the sanctions will go into effect tomorrow. "If they are close, they could be lifted or delayed." The U.S. bans on trade with Rosneft, and Lukoil, Russian oil companies come into force on Friday. Lukoil also has until the 13th of December to sell off its vast international portfolio. The larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. Crude Stockpiles was due to increased refining as a result of strong margins and demand for U.S. Crude. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories dropped by 3.4 millions barrels, to 424.2 million, in the week ending November 14. This was against the projection of analysts in a survey for a decline of 603,000 barrels. Analysts also noted, however, that U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillate increased for the very first time in over a month. This suggests a slowdown in consumption.
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Fire interrupts negotiations at COP30 Climate Summit, forcing evacuation
Officials said that the fire which forced the evacuation of the COP30 Climate Summit in Belem, Brazil, on Thursday has been put out. However, it is unclear whether delegates will return immediately to continue the negotiations. The Brazilian tourism minister informed reporters on the scene that the fire had been put out and that no one had been injured. However, he was unsure if delegates could return to the area of the venue in which the summit negotiations took place today or tomorrow. The summit organizers confirmed that the fire had been brought under control and added that Brazilian fire officials ordered the evacuation of all the premises. The Amazon City summit was originally scheduled to conclude on Friday. However, it missed the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday to reach agreement between the nearly 200 countries in attendance on topics such as how to increase climate financing and move away from fossil fuels. The fire scare happened in a place that was already buzzing with activity for the two weeks of the summit, disrupting ongoing discussions inside the venue. The siren alerted delegates, journalists, and observers to leave the building with their belongings. Police were positioned as a fence, preventing anyone from approaching the location where the fire had been reported. The TV footage shows flames and smoke in the conference center, which was built on the former site of an airport. The summit began earlier this month and has been interrupted by protests, which have demanded climate action. (Reporting and writing by Sudarshan Varadhan, Brendan O'Boyle and William James; editing by David Gregorio and William James)
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Goldman Sachs increases December 2025 copper estimate
Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for December 2025 to $10,610 from $10,385, reflecting the fourth-quarter rally. The bank has maintained its price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for 2026-2027 citing the expectation of a modest surplus on the market. It projected that prices would rise as demand in critical sectors increased and resource constraints tightened. Goldman Sachs' long-term forecast for copper prices in 2035 is $15,000 per ton. This is above both the consensus estimate and forwards which are about $10,390 per ton. The bank bases this on its assumption that many long-stalled mine projects will never be completed. As of 1646 GMT, benchmark three-month copper was trading at around $10,738.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. It was up by 4.4% in the fourth quarter. Aluminium was at $2.814.50. Goldman Sachs is still bearish on aluminum over the next year, and expects prices to fall to $2,350 a ton in the fourth quarter 2026, as new supply will push the market into surplus. Bank of America noted that although the price of aluminum should rise in the future, it is unlikely they will return to their current level until early next decade. The bank stated that "we extend our long-term aluminum price forecast and expect prices to trade between $2,900-3400 from 2030-2035." (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru. Jane Merriman edited the article.
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Gold drops as US jobs data dims prospects of December rate cut
Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors digested the September U.S. jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected employment figures and dampened prospects for a December rate cut. By 12:15 pm, spot gold had fallen 0.7%, to $4,051.89 an ounce. ET (1715 GMT). U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.8%, to $4.051.90 an ounce. Gold priced in greenbacks became more expensive to overseas buyers as the U.S. Dollar strengthened against major currencies. Labor Department's closely watched report was delayed by the government shutdown. It showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000 in September, which is more than twice the expected 50,000 increase. This (data) confirms what was discussed by the Fed in October -- that there is a slowing but stable job market. "A December rate cut appears to be less likely," said Peter Grant. Vice president and senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals. The traders now believe that there is a nearly 40% chance of a rate reduction next month. In low-interest rate environments, gold, which is a non-yielding investment, does well. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled the release of its October report due to the government shutdown and combined it with the November figures. The combined report is due to be released after the Fed's meeting on December 16. Minutes from the Fed meeting in October revealed that policymakers cut interest rates, despite warnings that this could increase the risk of inflation or undermine public trust in the central banks. Gold, the traditional safe-haven, is up 55% in this year. It reached a record high on October 20, reaching $4,381.22. UBS increased its mid-year 2026 gold target price to $4,500 an ounce despite recent consolidation. This was due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, geopolitical risk, and strong demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds. Silver fell by 1.9% at $50.34 an ounce. Platinum fell by 2.4% at $1,509.10, and palladium dropped 0.1% to 1,378.45. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith, Alan Barona and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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UN chief welcomes COP30's push for clarity about transition away from fossil fuels
On Thursday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an agreement from the Climate summit COP30 Some have called for clarification on the controversial subject of weaning off the world. fossil fuels The Belem summit, in Brazil's Amazonian city, missed the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday to reach agreement between the 200+ countries that were present. This included issues such as how to increase climate financing and move away from fossil fuels. Guterres said at a summit press conference: "I welcome the calls for a just and fair transition mechanism, as well as the growing coalition that is calling for clarity in the transition from fossil fuels." The emissions from fossil fuels are the largest contributors to climate change. The summit will end in less than 48-hours. According to the host nation Brazil, this is a critical step for accelerating international climate action. It also shows that there are many people who want to turn decades of promises made at COP summits and pledges into action. Guterres stated, "It is obvious that we are in the final stretch and the whole world is watching Belem." "I appeal strongly to all delegations that they show flexibility and willingness." FOSSIL FUEL RIFTS The two-week negotiations have become stuck on two issues: the future of fossils fuels and climate finance. These two issues expose the fault lines that cross between the negotiating blocs of rich Western countries, oil-producing states and smaller states most susceptible to climate change. Following the lead of Brazil, dozens countries including developed and developing countries have pushed for a roadmap outlining how countries can transition away from fossil-fuels. Some nations that produce fossil fuels, such as some in the United States, have resisted the idea, claiming it would increase bureaucracy and not improve the reduction of emissions commitments already made by countries. After a long discussion, the COP28 Climate Summit in 2023 decided to make a transition. However, nations haven't outlined how or when it will take place. Guterres said: "I'm convinced that compromise is possible." He said that urgent measures were needed to prevent global warming from permanently breaking above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrial times. Scientists say this threshold would unleash a series of devastating effects. ADAPTING TO THE CHANGE Three sources in the talks say that another major sticking point is the unwillingness of some richer countries to guarantee financial assistance to poorer nations in order to adapt to climate change. Developing countries have already expressed deep mistrust in the $300 billion pledge of climate finance made at the COP29 Conference in Baku last year, especially as the United States has withdrawn from international climate collaboration under President Donald Trump. According to earlier reporting, some existing climate financing has been directed towards strange projects or projects that funnel billions of dollars to rich nations. Steven Victor, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and the Environment of the Pacific Island nation of Palau, said: "Right Now, our people lose their lives and livelihoods due to storms of unprecedented intensity that are caused by warming oceans." He said: "If we leave Belem with no transformative result on adaptation for those most vulnerable in the world, then it's a failure." Officials from Europe have stated that while they recognize the importance of adaptation finance, they are not authorized to set new targets. Jiwoh Abdallah, the Sierra Leone climate minister, said that funding for adaptation is urgently needed to deal with extreme heat in schools and hospitals. He said: "Our children sit in classrooms in which it would be unacceptable in many industrialized nations because they are so hot." (Additional reporting from Lisandra Parguassu and Sudarshan Vasradahn; Kate Abnett, William James and Richard Valdmanis; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Nia Williams and Richard Valdmanis)
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Europe plans to measure the role of climate change in extreme weather
Experts say that the EU will launch a service in order to assess how climate change impacts extreme weather, such as heatwaves or extreme rain. This could be used by governments in setting climate policies, improving financial risk assessments, and providing evidence in court cases. Scientists at the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said the service could help governments weigh the physical risks of worsening weather, and set policy accordingly. It's a demand to understand when an extreme event occurs, how this is related to climate changes? Freja Vamborg, the technical lead for the new service, said that it was a demand to understand when an extreme event happens and how this is related to climate change. The European Commission didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. It will then perform attribution science by running computer simulations to see how weather systems would have behaved had people not started pumping greenhouse gasses into the air. The results of these simulations will be compared with current conditions. Copernicus, which will receive about 2.5 million euro over three years in funding, will be able to publish its results by the end next year. It also offers two assessments per month within one week of extreme weather events. Carlo Buontempo is the director of Copernicus Climate Change Service. He said that for the first time "there will always be an attribution service operating." "Climate Policy is unfortunately a very polarized subject again," said Friederike Otto, a climate researcher at Imperial College London. She helped pioneer the scientific approach and is not involved with the new EU service. She welcomed plans for the service to partner with national meteorological services of EU member states, as well as the UK Met and Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Otto added, "From this point of view it is also helpful if governments do it themselves. They can then see for themselves the real evidence that comes from their own weather services." RISK AND LIABILITY Independent climate scientists and lawyers praised the EU's move. Erika Lennon, senior attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law (a non-profit organization), said: "We want the most information possible." The more we know about attribution science the easier it will become for those most affected to bring successful claims in court. The approach helps financial companies, insurance companies, and other sectors by calculating the probabilities that climate change will impact weather patterns. Johan Rockstroem, an environmental scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that "they are already using it". In-house teams calculate probabilities for flooding or storms. Rockstroem explained that financial institutions are aware of the need to quantify risk. This is one method. In court, attribution science has been used to calculate how much a company or country's emissions have contributed towards climate-related disasters. In July, the International Court of Justice stated that attribution science was legally valid for linking emissions to climate extremes. However, it still needs to be fully tested in court. In May, a German court dismissed a Peruvian farmers lawsuit against German utility RWE over emissions-driven warming that caused Andean glaciers thaw. The court ruled that the amount of the damage claim was too low for the case to proceed. Noah Walker-Crawford is a climate litigation researcher at the London School of Economics. He said that the court did not discuss climate models in depth or whether they were accurate. Reporting by Ali Withers from Copenhagen and Kate Abnett from Belem in Brazil; Writing and editing by David Gregorio
UAE ready to boost oil production if market demand arises
United Arab Emirates' energy minister stated on Thursday that the country could increase its oil production after 2027, if the market demands it. This move could push the country into the top five oil producing countries in the world.
OPEC granted the UAE a larger production quota for this year. The country argued that it was restricting too much its output after investing heavily to increase capacity from 3 million barrels to 4,85 million.
Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei, Energy Minister of the country, told reporters that capacity could increase further after 2027.
He said that if the market demanded it, they could go up to 6 million. However, this was not an officially set target.
The UAE could cover just under 6 percent of the global demand if they were to reach this level.
It will also be the fourth largest oil and liquids producer on the planet, only behind the United States of America, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. These countries can produce around 21 million barrels, 12 millions, and 10-12million respectively.
The UAE will surpass the oil production of Canada, China and Iraq in 2024 with a 6 million barrel per day output. (Reporting and writing by OPEC Newsroom, Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Mark Heinrich & Tomaszjanowski)
(source: Reuters)