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Buy the dip and worry about jobs later.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The dollar and U.S. stock futures are both rising, so it's a good time to buy the dip. The Nikkei slipped as a result of the Wall Street crash on Friday and the rise in the yen. However, the rest Asia did better. Fed fund futures were priced at 65 basis points of rate cuts in December. However, that has now dropped to 60 basis points. This is a far cry from the 33 basis points seen prior to Friday's disappointing U.S. employment report. September still has an 83% chance of an easing. The market lowered the Fed's rate by 25 basis points on Friday, since borrowing costs are based on yields and not the funds rate in the States. The yield on ten-year bonds also dropped by a large 14 basis points, but they met resistance at around 4.20%. This is a level that has been difficult to breach since October of last year. In the long term, the downward revisions of payrolls have seriously questioned the U.S. claim for economic superiority and the crown of exceptionalism that the dollar holds. This was further tarnished when President Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The institution had a sterling reputation of scrupulous integrity that earned the trust of international investors. Or at least it used to. Trump has said he will choose a new BLS head in the coming days. Will the new BLS head be an independent statistician who is committed to providing reliable data or a Trump ally eager to please his master? U.S. assets currently enjoy a premium for trusts that will become increasingly difficult to maintain when Trump bends the government to his will. Trump has also floated the idea that he will use some of the windfall resulting from tariffs in order to pay 'dividends' to lucky Americans - with special checks bearing the "TRUMP" symbol, no doubt. You tax everyone who buys imported goods, regardless of whether they choose to do so, and use a portion of the money you earn to give to people you like, rather than to the government. A U.S. appellate court heard arguments late last week on the legality Trump's "reciprocal levies" and seemed inclined to support the initial ruling that the tariffs are illegal. A ruling of this nature would still likely be appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has been known to favor unbridled presidential powers. If the tariffs are found to be illegal, all trade agreements and ongoing deals will be nullified, as well as the Treasury's money. What a great idea! Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Swiss CPI for July Want to stay up-to-date with the latest tariffs? Our daily news digest provides a quick overview of the most important headlines that impact global trade. Tariff Watch is available here.
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Loni Andersen, who was smart and played against stereotypes on "WKRP in Cincinnati" is dead at the age of 79
According to her publicist, actress Loni Anderson died at the age of 79. She was best known for her role in "WKRP In Cincinnati" as a glamorous, intelligent radio station receptionist who defied workplace sexual stereotypes. Anderson's family confirmed that she died in a Los Angeles Hospital "following a prolonged acute illness". She was also known for her highly publicized marriage to actor Burt Reynolds and their tabloid divorce six years after. The family released a statement saying that they were "heartbroken" to announce the death of their dear wife, grandmother and mother. They added that she died surrounded by her loved ones. Anderson, originally from St. Paul in Minnesota and a natural brunette, competed in beauty pageants in her hometown and began her career in showbiz in community theatre. She dyed her blonde hair after moving to Los Angeles, in the 1970s. Then came a flurry television appearances, including "The Bob Newhart Show", "Police Story", "The Incredible Hulk", and "The Love Boat". Suzanne Somers won the role of Chrissie, one of two female leads in "Three's Company." Anderson got her big break when she was cast as Jennifer Marlowe in "WKRP In Cincinnati". She convinced the producers of the show to allow her to play the role against the stereotype that a blonde with bubbles would be a good fit. Her character was instead written as a deceptively clever receptionist, who refused to fetch coffee or take dictation, but turned out to be smartest person in room. She kept the fictional Ohio radio stations afloat, despite the weaknesses of male bosses. The show aired on CBS for four seasons (1978-1982) and Anderson received two nominations for prime-time Emmys. She played two real life, ill fated sex-sirens from earlier Hollywood eras - "The Jayne Mansfield Story", in which Arnold Schwarzenegger starred as her bodybuilder spouse during the 1950s and "The Mysterious murder of Thelma Todd", set in 1930s. Anderson's four-decade career was chronicled in "My Life in High Heels," her best-selling memoir. Reynolds and She met for the first time in 1981, as guests of a TV talk show. They began dating one year later, and in 1983 they co-starred in "Stroker Ace," a romantic comedy about race cars. In 1988 they married, she for a third time and he for a second. Anderson is survived her adopted son Quinton Anderson Reynolds and her fourth spouse, Bob Flick. Bob Flick was a member in the Brothers Four, a folk singing group from the 1950s and 1960s. Reporting by Steve Gorman, Los Angeles. Editing by Clarence Fernandez.
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Beijing residents warned to stay indoors during heavy rain
Beijing warned residents to stay indoors if it rains heavily on Monday, following the recent floods that killed dozens in the Chinese capital. Weather forecasters have warned that parts of Beijing could receive up to 200mm (7.9 in) of rain over a period of six hours starting at midday. Weather forecasters warn that Beijing, a city with 22 million residents, receives an average of 600mm of rain each year. At least 44 people were killed in Beijing last month after heavy rains. The majority of those who died were trapped by quickly rising water at a nursing facility in Miyun District on the northeastern outskirts of Beijing. Authorities admitted that their emergency plans were inadequate in the wake of these deaths. Beijing's six districts, located in the mountains to the north and west of the city, were on high alert Monday for heavy rain. These include Mentougou and Fangshan. Local authorities have warned that the risk of flash flooding and landslides are "extremely" high. Beijing's worst flooding since living memory killed 79 people in the summer of 2012. Fangshan was the hardest-hit district, with residents reporting that floodwaters rose by 1.3 metres within 10 minutes. Beijing's topography is described as a "rain trap" by some, with the mountains in the west and north capturing humid air and amplifying rainfall. Five bodies were found in southern Guangdong Province over the weekend after a massive search involving 1,300 rescuers. According to Xinhua, Sunday, five people who were reported missing on Friday evening had been "swept away" by recent heavy rains. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Ryan Woo)
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Gold falls victim to profit-taking following the US jobs data-fueled rally
Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors took profits following a steep rise the previous session. This was due to weaker than expected U.S. employment data which boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. As of 0229 GMT, spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,354.17 an ounce. Bullion rose by more than 2% Friday. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.2% to $3.407,10. Gold has had a cautious start to the new week after Friday's sharp price increase. Gold has eased slightly to start the week due to a combination of profit-taking and dollar stabilisation, said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst. Asian markets followed Wall Street's decline as fears about the U.S. economic situation returned with a vengeance. This led investors to price-in an almost certain cut in rates in September, and undermined the dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported that U.S. employment growth in July was slower than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 last month after increasing by 14,000 jobs in June. The markets are now pricing an 81% probability of a Fed rate reduction in September. This is according to CME FedWatch. In comments broadcast on Sunday, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on scores of nations last week are more likely to remain in place than to be reduced as part of ongoing negotiations. Waterer said that any decline in gold prices could be of a superficial nature, given Trump's tariff warpath and the weak U.S. employment report, which increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the FOMC on September. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is traditionally considered to be a safe haven during times of political and economic uncertainty, tends thrive. Silver spot fell 0.6%, to $36.80 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.6%, to $1307.02, and palladium fell 0.9%, to $1197.76. (Reporting and editing by Anushree mukherjee in Bengaluru and Brijesh patel; Sumana Nandy, Mrigank Dhaniwala).
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Four dead and more than 5,900 people evacuated after torrential downpours in southern Taiwan
Four people have died and over 5,900 people have been evacuated from southern Taiwan following the island's record rainfall of more than an entire year in the last week, which led to widespread flooding and landslides. Since late July, when strong southwesterly winds and a depression began to cause flooding and landslides on Taiwan's southern coast - an area crucial for the island's agricultural sector - three people have gone missing and 77 others have been injured. Central Weather Administration reports that in the last seven days more than 2.6 meters (102.3 inches) (or 102.33 inches) of rainfall fell on the mountainous southern region, compared with the average annual rainfall in subtropical Taiwan of 2.1 metres. Cho Jung-tai said that his cabinet is working on a proposal this week for a special budget to provide relief efforts. Cho Jung Tai visited residents of Tainan, a city in southern Taiwan, which was hard hit by Typhoon Danas. "We have never seen such a storm. Cho stated that it's been a full month since Typhoon Danas struck, and the rain has continued ever since. The government reported that more than 2,000 residents were still unable to return to their homes. This was mainly in mountainous villages of southern Kaohsiung County and Pingtung County where rescuers worked to restore roads damaged by landslides and flooding, and to deliver food and medicine. Chen Chi-mai, Kaohsiung's mayor, told reporters Sunday that this was the largest evacuation of people in the last decade. Please don't climb the mountain. "It's very, very dangerous." Weather authorities predicted that the rain would likely subside by Monday. However, warnings of landslides and flooding for the southern mountains continued. In July, Typhoon Danas slammed southern Taiwan with winds that broke records. It was a rare strike on the island's densely-populated west coast. The storm knocked over 3,000 poles down and caused the island's worst power grid damage in decades. (Reporting by Yimou Lee, Editing by Michael Perry).
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Iron ore prices rise on strong demand and healthy steel margins
Iron ore prices rose on Monday due to a combination of strong near-term demand and falling portside stock, as well as healthy steel margins, in the top consumer China. However, gains were curtailed by expectations that supplies will increase. As of 0202 GMT, the most-traded contract for September iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.25% higher. It was 786.5 Yuan ($109.44), per metric ton. As of 0152 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange increased by 0.3% to $100.3 per ton. The average daily hot metal production among steelmakers, despite a decline in the previous week, remains above 240 millions tons. This level is typically considered to be a sign of a resilient iron ore market. Data from the consultancy Mysteel revealed that around two-thirds (69%) of steel mills made a profit during the past week. This compares to just 59% at the beginning of July. Steelhome's data shows that portside inventories fell 0.6% in the last week to 130.3 million tonnes, the lowest level since February 2024. Prices of the main steelmaking ingredient have not increased much despite the outlook for a rise in supplies during the second half of this year. First Futures analysts said that since miners did not change their production forecasts, they expect shipments to increase in the rest of the year. This would indicate a growing supply. The cyclones that hit Australia in early this year resulted in an abrupt drop in shipments during the first quarter. This contributed to a general decrease in shipments for the first half. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, have also declined, by 0.58% apiece. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell, with rebar dropping 1%, hot-rolled coil slipping 0.7%, stainless steel slipping 0.12%. ($1 = 7.1865 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Amy Lv)
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BlueScope, Australia's steel giant, leads the global steel giants to push for Gupta Whyalla plant
BlueScope Steel, Australia's largest steelmaker, announced on Monday that it had assembled a large consortium of international steelmakers to bid on Sanjeev's Whyalla Steelworks. This comes more than a month after local authorities opened the sale process. The group, which includes Japan's Nippon Steel and India's JSW Steel as well as South Korea's POSCO, has a combined value of A$115 Billion ($74.4 Billion) and plans to use the South Australian facility for future low-emissions production iron for both domestic and international markets. The consortium has submitted a non-binding Expression of Interest but has not yet made a formal offer. Whyalla Steelworks went into administration in February after its operating company failed under the weight of tens and tens millions in debt. The Australian and South Australian government stepped in to provide a A$1.9 billion joint rescue package for local jobs and the preservation of a critical piece of industrial infrastructure. Australia officially opened the sales process in June, citing a strong global interest by companies looking to gain a foothold into the emerging green economy of steel. Gupta family conglomerate GFG Alliance was not immediately available for comment.
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Oil prices drop after OPEC+ agrees on a production increase in September
Early Asian trading on Monday saw oil prices drop after OPEC+ agreed that they would increase production by a large amount in September. Brent crude futures were down 43 cents or 0.62% to $69.24 per barrel at 2218 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was $66.94 per barrel, down 39cents or 0.58% after both contracts had closed around $2 lower on Friday. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 bpd for September. This is the latest of a series accelerated output increases to regain market shares, as concerns grow over possible supply disruptions related to Russia. This move represents a complete and early reversal in OPEC+’s largest batch of output cuts. In addition, the United Arab Emirates have increased their output by about 2.5 million bpd or 2.4% of global demand. In a press release issued after the meeting, OPEC+ cited a strong economy and low stock levels as reasons for its decision. Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said that the actual increase since April was smaller than the headline figure and mainly comprised of barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and UAE (United Arab Emirates). The bet that the market would absorb the extra barrels this summer has paid off, as prices are not far from the pre-tariff Liberation Day level. Reporting by Florence Tan Editing and design by Rod Nickel
Russell: OPEC+ is lucky to bring back oil production amid uncertainty.
It would have been a bold prediction a couple of months back to claim that OPEC+ could bring back 2,5 million barrels of crude oil production per day and keep the price of oil at $70 a barrel.
This is what happened, as the eight producers of the group rolled back their voluntary reductions of 2.2 million bpd by September and allowed a separate rise for the United Arab Emirates.
Eight OPEC+ member countries met virtually on Sunday and agreed to increase output by 547,000 bpd in September. This is an addition to the 548,000 bpd increases for August, the 411,000 bpd increases for each of June, May, and July as well as 138,000 bpd of April, which kicked off the unwinding their voluntary cuts.
OPEC+ remained steadfast in their recent claim that rolling back production cuts is justified by a robust global economy and low inventories of oil.
This is debatable. Demand growth has not been impressive in Asia, the region that imports most.
According to LSEG Oil Research, Asia's crude oil imports in July were 25.0 million bpd, down from 27,88 million bpd a month earlier and the lowest total monthly since July of last year.
China's increase in crude oil purchases is largely due to lower prices when cargoes arriving in June and July were organized.
China's stockpiles have also likely increased rapidly. While it does not disclose its inventories, after subtracting the refinery processing from the total of domestic production and imports, the surplus crude was 1,06 million bpd in the first half 2025.
OPEC+ LUCK?
It seems more likely that OPEC+ was fortunate to have increased output during a period of increasing risks on the crude oil markets, primarily due to geopolitical tensions.
Brent crude futures reached a six-month peak of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, after a brief conflict in June between Israel and Iran, to which the United States later added.
Brent has dropped to about $69.35 after some initial weakness in Asia.
The point is that this conflict between Israel and Iran has stopped a downward trend in oil prices which had been present for most of the first half year.
The recent rise in crude prices has also been boosted by the threat of sanctions from U.S. president Donald Trump against Russian oil buyers unless Moscow agreed to a ceasefire with Ukraine.
It pays to be cautious about Trump's actions, as with all his other statements. It would be foolish to assume there will be no effect on crude supply even if the United States' eventual measures are not as drastic.
India and China are the two largest buyers of Russian crude oil.
India, with its millions of barrels exported of refined products made from Russian oil, is the most exposed of these two.
According to Kpler's data, India imported 2.1 millions bpd (billion barrels per day) of Russian oil in the month of June. This is only second highest monthly total after 2.15 million in May 2023.
India bought about 40% of the crude oil it uses in recent months from Russia. If it switched to another supplier, this would cause a major impact on oil flow, at least initially.
The Middle East, Africa, and Americas could compensate for the loss of Russian barrels by India, but it would result in a significant tightening of supplies and keep prices high.
It remains to be determined whether Russia and its shadowy network of traders and shippers can once again circumvent sanctions. Even if they are able to do so, it will still take time to get Russian crude to buyers.
OPEC+ is following a smart approach by taking advantage of uncertainty in order to bring back production and regain market share.
The question is how long can this play work?
It's possible that even if Russian barrels leave the market in the second quarter, demand growth will disappoint as the impact Trump's trade conflict becomes more evident, reducing global trade and slowing economic growth.
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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)