South Asia

Next week, it's all central banks. Interest rate-setters in Tokyo, Washington and London are growing more nervous due to the Middle East war escalate. Oil prices have returned to $100. Tariffs from the United States are now back on the list of worries for markets that worry about inflation and growth risks due to war. Rae Wee, Dhara Ranasinghe and Samuel "Indyk" and Alun John are in London. Lewis Krauskopf is in New York. DOUBLE TROUBLE Investors are now watching two chokepoints for energy shipping to see how much oil and natural gas comes out of the Middle East. Houthi...

Indian?shares fell on Monday. The decline was largely due to the?HDFC Bank reducing its quarterly net interest margins. By 10:04 a.m. IST, the?benchmark Nifty 50 index fell 0.60%, to 24,187.25. The BSE Sensex dropped 0.76%, to 77566.17. HDFC Bank fell 5%, its steepest intraday drop in four months, after in-line June-quarter profit was overshadowed by a sharper-than-expected net interest margin decline. HDFC Bank's?drop was greater than Reliance Industries' 0.3% increase and ICICI Bank?s 0.6% gain after their results. Reliance surpassed profit expectations on the strength of oil-to chemicals and telecom?verticals. This was announced after market hours on Friday. ICICI Bank...

Indian shares will open slightly lower?Monday due to rising oil prices, a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is offset by better than expected earnings from 'heavyweights' Reliance Industries & ICICI Bank. As of 7:59 am IST, the GIFT Nifty futures GIFc1 were trading at 24,297.5. This indicates that the Nifty 50 may open below Friday's closing price of 24,334.3. U.S. troops struck Iran for the ninth day in a row as the number of American?military casualties increased to three. Concerns grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 2.5%, topping $90...

Mukesh Ambani, the billionaire Indian, and his Reliance Industries beat market expectations on Friday for its first-quarter profit, thanks to strong performance in their oil-tochemicals, retail, and telecom businesses. The results showed the resilience of Reliance’s diverse businesses during a quarter that was marked by?elevated oil prices, geopolitical conflicts and supply-chain interruptions. Reliance’s operating performance improved across its?three main verticals. The oil-to chemicals business, including its'refining operations', saw a 17.2% increase in core earnings from the previous year. Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of O2C Business, said that the business had a strong performance in the quarter. This was supported by record-high...

Five sources familiar with the talks claim that Pakistan is negotiating a broader?defence agreement with Kuwait, in exchange for energy investment and cooperation. All sources agreed that the talks are still in a 'early stage' and could be complicated by the heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, according to one source. According to a report on Thursday, there are growing concerns in Islamabad about the possibility that the mutual defence agreement signed with Saudi Arabia last year could drag Pakistan into a war between Iran and the United States. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country, told Iran that it would...

Shares of Jio Financial Services soared on Friday after the non bank lender reported a more than doubled?quarterly?profit,?adding investor confidence in its expansion into lending, payments and insurance, as well as asset management. The stock rose as high as 6.1%, and by 10:29 am IST was up as recently as 3.9% to 244.83 rupees. This makes it the biggest gainer in the benchmark Nifty50. Jio Financial, which was spun-off from Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries in 2023 and will be listed on the stock exchange, announced that its net profit for the June quarter more than doubled to 8.3 billion rupees...

Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that top Russian energy companies approached Indian refiners to request more gasoline following Ukrainian strikes which knocked out a large portion of Russia's refueling capacity. India is Russia's largest buyer of seaborne crude oil. Moscow's attempt to secure Indian gasoline represents a reversal of their energy relationship and highlights the impact of the Ukrainian attacks. Moscow is experiencing its worst gasoline shortage. One source with knowledge on the subject said that at least one cargo of Indian gas has already been shipped to Russia. More are expected. Nearly 40% of Russia's refinery...

World Leaks, a ransomware group, has released on the dark Web a large cache of files relating to India's largest nuclear plant. These include purported blueprints for parts of its facilities as well as supplier details. The information was labelled by World Leaks as being from Reliance Group. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant is located in the southern state of Tamil Nadu and is the largest among India's seven nuclear plants. It's also the center of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans to increase the country's capacity for?atomic energy?. Reliance Group of Indian businessman Anil Ambani, one of the plants' contractors,...

Traders and fuel market participants reported that the fuel?shortages?in Russia caused by?Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries?have reached Central Asian nations, who are dependent on Russian supplies. Sources claim that the amount of jet fuel shipped by rail by Central Asia and Afghanistan dropped 92% from May to 3,800 metric tons in June, while gasoline supplies fell 34% to 99 300 tonnes. According to traders, diesel exports grew?in June from 167.500 tons in May to 237.700 tons. Despite the larger drop in June, Russian fuel imports to Central Asia & Afghanistan rose by 7% from a year earlier to 3,82...

India's Oil?and?Natural?Gas Corp. will build a 1,75 million metric tons (about 13,000,000 barrels) strategic petroleum reserve at Mangalore, in southern India. The company announced this in a late-night stock exchange filing on Thursday. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, was severely affected by the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz - during the Iran War. Around a fifth (25%) of all energy in the world passes through this?waterway. India has increased its energy cooperation, with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Japan and others, in order to strengthen its emergency stockpile....

Shares of India's largest?software exporter,?Tata Consultancy Services, advanced by more than 4% the day after beating a?quarterly revenue estimate.?Deal wins and increasing AI-related revenues raised hopes for a slow earnings recovery. TCS traded 1.8% higher, at 2,086 Rupees, at 9:59 am IST in Mumbai. This boosted the?Nifty50 index by 1.1%. The IT index rose about 2%. The results of the IT company kicked off India's first-quarter earning season, which saw earnings downgrades due to a slowdown in client spending and concerns that AI could disrupt the business models of software companies. TCS's quarterly sales increased 14% over the previous year...

According to sources in the trading world, India's Bharat Oil Corp and Japan's Taiyo Oil purchased 'crude' from the United States this week, as refiners sought to diversify their supplies amid the Middle East conflict. Four sources claim that BPCL purchased West Texas Intermediate crude oil from Vitol. The refiner has booked an Aframax Tanker that can?carry up to 600,000.0 barrels of crude oil, according to two of the witnesses. They added that the oil was purchased at a price premium of?around 6 per barrel over dated Brent. A separate trader reported that Taiyo Oil purchased 2 million barrels for...

Two Indian sources said this week that India's state run Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Indonesia's Krakatau Steel are planning to invest up to $350 million into a'stainless-steel slab plant' in Indonesia. Sources said that the plant is expected to become operational in the next 3 to 4 years. SAIL and Krakatau Steel have signed a preliminary joint venture agreement in Indonesia to produce stainless steel plates during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sources said that SAIL will'send a technical team next month to Indonesia to prepare a feasibility study. After this, the two companies will...

Data released on Tuesday showed that 'India's industrial production growth increased to 7.3% in the month of June. This was due to a strong manufacturing sector, boosted by government spending and an expansion in electricity generation. The economists polled expected the industrial output to grow to?5.7% from a revised 5.0%?a month before. In May, government began using producer prices instead of wholesale prices to calculate factory output. KEY NUMBERS * Electricity production increased 10.6% on an annual basis in June, compared to a revised 10.3% increase a month before. The mining activity increased 1% year-on-year from a revised fall of...

Ambuja Cements, a cement manufacturer in India, reported a 37% drop in its quarterly 'profit' on Tuesday. It was the first time in three quarters that it had seen a decline. The company said that rising fuel prices and a weak monsoon season could put further pressure on profitability. In the second quarter, monsoon related?disruptions?are expected. Meanwhile, higher petcoke costs and freight prices continue to squeeze margins on a market where competition is fierce and producers are unable to increase their prices. The company stated that "the impact of peak fuel cost inflation will coincide with the seasonal weaker Q2,...

Two bankers familiar with the matter said on Monday that India's UltraTech Cement was in discussions?with merchant banks and arrangers about raising?its largest rupee bond funding. It is looking to tap the debt markets before the central bank makes its policy decision next Thursday. Sources who requested anonymity because the talks were still private said that the country's biggest cement producer by production capacity planned to raise 50 billion rupees (517.80 million dollars) in bonds with maturities of two-and a half years, three and a half years, and five years. The target is?15 billion each for the two shorter tranches,...

Gold prices climbed on Friday as oil prices fell, and investors watched developments in the Middle East to get a better idea of inflationary risks fueled by energy, as well the outlook for U.S. rates. Spot gold increased 0.4%, to $4.061.36 an ounce, by 1115 GMT after falling 0.6% earlier. U.S. gold futures for delivery in August gained 0.3%, to $4.063.60. The gold price has moved from a negative to a slightly positive territory, driven by the lower oil prices. This reduces pressure on Fed to adjust rates, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He added, "Our view is that the...

Gold ticked up a bit?on friday, reversing previous losses, as oil fell below $100?per barrel mark. Investors are watching developments in the Middle East to get a fresh perspective on inflationary risks driven by energy and the outlook for U.S. rates. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,055.38 an ounce as of 0925 GMT after falling 2% Thursday to $4.047.26. U.S. gold futures August delivery rose 0.2%, to $4.058.10. "Gold is now slightly positive after moving from a negative position earlier, driven by lower oil prices. This has reduced pressure on the Fed's rate-setting," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. He...

India's coal-fired plants have enough?coal to operate for two weeks at higher rates. This eases concerns about fuel shortages due to a?rising demand for electricity and a?lower-than-average rainfall during the monsoon season. The power ministry said in a response to the parliament that coal stocks at power stations stood at 42,8 million tonnes on July 12. This is enough for 14 full days of operation with an 85% load factor. It added that utilities are also able to obtain enough coal to meet their daily needs. The peak demand for power in India increased last week by nearly 270.1 gigawatts,...

UltraTech 'Cement, India’s largest cement manufacturer?by capacity?, announced a nearly 17% increase in the first-quarter profit?on Monday and?announced plans to add capacity in fiscal 2028. UltraTech's strong results indicate that it used its size and position in the market to absorb higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict more effectively than smaller competitors. Petcoke and coal prices, which are the main fuels used in cement kilns remained high during the quarter. Cement makers increased prices by about 2.5% to 3% but the increase was partly offset by rising costs. The net profit for the quarter ended 30 June...

India's JSW Steel reported a?profit in the first quarter that was more than twice as high, exceeding analyst estimates. Net profit margins also improved due to a?resilient volume and?firmer domestic prices, which outweighed the?pressure?from higher coal costs. The top steelmaker in the country reported on Friday a net profit of 482.79 million rupees (46.51 billion rupiahs) for the three-month period ended June 30. LSEG data shows that analysts had predicted an average of 31.11 billion rupees. Elara Capital analysts said that prices of flat steel products like hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils rose in India both sequentially and on an annual...

India's statistics secretary announced that the country will launch a headline "Index of Services Production" within months. This index will give investors for the first time a monthly measure of output in India's dominant service sector. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation published trial monthly indices on Tuesday for 19 sub-sectors of formal services, covering approximately 60% of that economy. However, it did not release a composite headline measurement. India does not have an official monthly measure of output in its dominant service sector. In an interview late Thursday, Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg stated that "we?are hopeful" to be...

India's SBI Funds Management drew bids worth ?3 trillion Indian rupees ($31.14 billion), making the asset manager's $1.03 billion initial public ?offering (IPO) the country's fourth-most-subscribed issue. The $278.5 millions raised by anchor investors, such as BlackRock, sovereign wealth funds in Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Norway, is included in the IPO subscription numbers. India's primary stock market made a strong return with the IPO that closed on Thursday. This was after a subdued start to the year. India will see a flurry of public offerings during the second half of the year. Reliance Jio's mega listing and the National Stock...

India's trade minister said that the talks between India and America are "progressing well" and New Delhi does not see any obstacles to a successful conclusion of a deal. The framework agreement is complete. The framework deal will be signed when the time is right, said Rajesh Agrawal, trade secretary, at a June press conference, as he presented monthly data on exports and imports. In February, both sides agreed on a?18% tariff on Indian goods as a trade-off for New Delhi to lower its trade barriers and buy more American goods. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating President Donald Trump’s...