South Asia

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

Long/short hedge fund results prove that fundamentals are still important, and Europe continues underestimating its global power. In this midweek article, I will highlight some key stories that caught me eye?this week and may have been lost in the daily flood of market news. The pump doesn't work The late U.S. John McCain said in 2014 that "Russia is just a gas station posing as a nation." If that's the case, reports of Russia's people running out of fuel in the 4.5 year long war with Ukraine seem both absurd and very significant. The attacks on Russia's infrastructure have led...

Two Pakistani sources claim that Pakistan is quietly mediating between Libya’s rival eastern-western?power centers. This effort, which was previously unknown, will raise Pakistan's diplomatic profile, if successful. The Pakistani involvement comes after months of monitoring a U.S. led push to find diplomatic solutions in Libya. The Trump administration has repeatedly credited Pakistan's role in separate mediation between Iran and the U.S. This year. One of the Pakistani source said that the U.S. had been "fully aware and engaged" with Islamabad’s Libya role. Both sources confirmed that Saudi Arabia was also supporting the effort. Islamabad and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual...

The Danish brewer, Carlsberg, has filed a confidential application for an IPO of its Indian operations, the company announced on Thursday. It joins a growing number of multinationals seeking to tap India's booming equity markets. The 'confidential - route allows companies to keep the IPO filings they make with the country’s markets regulator secret until the launch. Two sources familiar with the matter said that Carlsberg India's planned listing would not raise new capital, but it would allow its parent company to sell a portion of its stake. The brewery is a fully owned subsidiary of Carlsberg Group. This move...

Two industry sources confirmed on Wednesday that Russia began importing gasoline by sea from India in an effort to reduce fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks against its energy infrastructure. Fuel shortages have been felt in all 11 time zones of Russia, with long queues and record gasoline prices. The Kremlin announced on Tuesday that Russia is in contact with other nations and discussing the importation of fuel at reasonable prices. The Indian oil ministry and the Russian energy ministry have not responded to requests for comment. A source in the industry said that at least 60,000 tons of gasoline...

A poll on Tuesday showed that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first time since the Iran War began. This follows five consecutive months of increases. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about?prolonged disruptions in supply. According to the'monthly' survey of 31 economists, analysts and other experts, Brent crude will average $84.50 a barrel by 2026 compared to $90.44 last month. U.S. crude oil was projected to average $79.49 per barrel, down from the $84.63 estimate in May. These revisions represent a decline of more than 6% from estimates made in May....

Indian refining sources claim that several middlemen offered 'discounted Iranian crude oil' to Indian refiners as a way for 'Tehran' to speed up sales following Washington’s temporary waiver of sanctions. After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days, which opened a small window for a renewed energy trade. Sources said that the Iranian state oil producer, National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC), has approached Indian refiners directly and through intermediaries, claiming to have allocated oil. "Apart form NIOC several traders contact us to sell?Iranian Oil. One of the refining...

Venezuela is receiving cash, emergency aid and rescuers after two powerful quakes shook areas around the capital Caracas. Thousands of people are still missing. Here is the list of foreign aid: UNITED NATIONS According to U.N.'s humanitarian affairs agency, 25 international?teams with a total of 1,000 personnel have been mobilized. Tom Fletcher, the chief of aid at the United Nations, said that a collective effort will be needed in order to support government-led efforts and assist communities. UNITED STATES The U.S. State Department announced it would mobilize $150 million of aid. The U.S. State Department said it is mobilizing $150...

International Monetary Fund?said Thursday that it had seen energy and commodities prices drop since?the U.S. and Iran agreement to?halt?hostilities and reopen?the Strait of?Hormuz.?But it will take some time for prices to return to normal and Gulf trade to resume. IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said at a press briefing that the Fund would decide on whether or not to stick with the three growth scenarios that it had presented in April, which were dependent on the outcome of the Iran war. Kozack said that as the Strait of Hormuz was closed in May and benchmark oil prices remained above $100 per...

Two sources with knowledge of the issue have confirmed that Indian Oil Corp. has received "no bids" in the tenders for 'charter vessels' to lift crude oil and liquefied petrochemical?gas from ports within the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, India's largest refiner and fuel retailer floated three tenders for chartering a very-large gas carrier (VLGC), an extremely large crude carrier, and a Suezmax. Indian state refiners buy most of their oil and LPG from Middle Eastern producers free-onboard. A VLCC carries about 2 million barrels of oil. And a VLGC holds 45,000 metric tonnes of LPG, a mixture of propane...

STOCKS: The benchmark BSE Senex added 0.38% to 77 094.07, while the broader NSE Index rose 0.37%?to?24,102.90. Reliance Industries led this rise,?following?its annual meeting, and a rebound of IT stocks. Meanwhile, improved sentiments from Middle East Peace Talks and lower oil prices helped to support broader risk appetite. RUPEE: The Indian rupee fell 0.38% against the?U.S. The dollar dropped to 94.6775 on Monday and ended a six-day run of gains. GOVERNMENT BONDS The benchmark 10-year bonds were quoted at 100.6475 Rupees with the yield remaining largely unchanged at 6.8473%. Traders were cautious due to the lingering U.S. Iran truce risk...

The Crude Oil differentials in Europe that help set the Brent benchmark for the world have dropped further this week, as increased flows via the Strait of Hormuz has eased fears about Middle East supply disruptions. JD Vance, the Vice president of the United States, said that on Thursday 12.5 million barrels flowed through strait since the U.S. signed an interim agreement with Iran to end their conflict. Since the beginning of the fighting in late February, the strait has been closed to oil flow. It used to carry up 20 million barrels a day before. Six grades are used...

India's import restrictions have caused shortages on the world's largest market for precious metals, driving premiums up to their highest levels in six months despite a weaker than usual demand. India's lower imports, which meet more than 80% its silver demand by purchasing it overseas, could have a negative impact on the global price of silver, as well as help narrow its trade deficit and reduce pressure on its currency, the rupee. Chirag Thakkar, the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group Gujarat - a major silver importer - said that "Silver Imports are almost at a standstill, creating a severe...

Dutch prosecutors announced on Wednesday that they had opened a criminal case against Tata Steel's Dutch subsidiary for "intentionally polluting" the environment. The prosecutors said a criminal probe?into Tata’s massive plant in?IJmuiden on the Dutch coast, west of Amsterdam, gave clear indications that company did not take enough care to avoid hazardous pollution. Tata was also accused of operating without the necessary licences and inadequate maintenance for its highly polluting coke oven. Tata's Dutch division, which is part of Tata, said that they disagreed with these accusations and had made significant improvements to reduce pollution in the past years. It...

The Indonesian Presidential 'palace' announced on Tuesday that India and Indonesia had?signed an agreement on the BrahMos Cruise Missile System. During his two-day trip to Indonesia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited President Prabowo Sibito. This was his first visit to Southeast Asia since 2023. According to a Jakarta announcement that did not provide any details, BrahMos - an India/Russia joint venture missile company - and Indonesia's Defence Ministry signed a deal for the BrahMos system of missile defense. The?reported on Tuesday earlier that India would supply the BrahMos missile defense system to Indonesia and also?the Astra Air-to-Air missile, citing...

Gold rose on Friday, and was expected to gain a weekly profit after four weeks of losses. Weak U.S. job data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near future. Gold spot was up 1.3% to $4,176.29 an ounce at 1006 GMT after reaching its highest level since June 23. Bullion is above its 21-day moving average and up over 2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 1.53% to $4188.80/oz. Data released on Thursday revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in the U.S. last month. This was below the 110,000 economists had...

Gold gained 1% on Friday, and investors were set to?make their?first weekly gains in five as they dialed back expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes after softer than expected jobs data. As of 0612 GMT spot gold was up by 1% to $4,165.29 an ounce. It had earlier reached its highest level since the 23rd of June. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 1.3% to $4,178.50. Bullion is on track to gain 1.8% in a week, its first weekly gain since?May 29. Weaker-than-expected data from nonfarm payrolls as well as private payrolls have tempered inflation concerns and interest rates...

As investors lowered their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes after softer than expected U.S. job data, gold rose by more than 1%. As of 0235 GMT spot gold rose 1.4% to $4179.94 an ounce. This was its highest price since June 23. U.S. Gold futures for delivery in August gained?1.6%, to $4193.20. Bullion is on track to gain 2.3% in a week, its first weekly gain since the week of May 25. Weaker-than-expected data from nonfarm payrolls as well as private payrolls helped ease concerns about inflation and longer-term interest rates. The dollar was heading for a weekly decline,...

?Abu Dhabi’s?International Holding Company? plans to invest $11.5billion in an integrated aluminum project in eastern Indian state Odisha via a joint venture India’s Adani Group?, a State official announced on Thursday. This would be the largest foreign investment?in metals in the country. India is investing in aluminium to meet the growing demand for infrastructure, power, transportation and renewable energy. It also wants to reduce its reliance on imports of metal products with added value. The federal government announced steps last year to increase aluminium production and stated that 'domestic demand will reach 8.5 millions metric tons in fiscal 2030. According...

CopperTech Metals announced a delay in its U.S. initial public offering on Tuesday. The company cited volatility in the global copper equity sector. Postponement is despite a resurgence in investor appetite for new listings. This has been bolstered by buoyant equity market and several blockbuster initial public offerings. Copper prices are volatile due to the expectations of new U.S. Tariffs, and the supply restrictions that will be imposed in response to the surge in AI-related demand. After a review, U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick will?update the president on the refined copper?market and domestic refining capacity on Tuesday. Global X Copper...

The dollar was firmer amid expectations that U.S. rates will be raised, and gold edged up from a near seven-month low. As of 1150 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,031.29 an ounce after hitting its lowest level in November 2025 earlier in session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 0.2% to $4.045.30/oz. "The failure to maintain gains (for gold), highlights the current fragile mood, where traders continue to?sell into strength instead of buying into weakness, which is a noticeable shift from behaviour seen in the past few years," said Saxo Bank Analyst Ole Hansen. Bullion fell more...

Guinea's mines minister said that the country aims to be a regional hub for gold refining. This is part of a wider push by West African producers to 'process bullion locally instead of exporting it into the Middle East. Gold prices are high, and the move aims to preserve more value for consumers at home. Bouna Sylla, Mines Minister Bouna Sylla said over the weekend that there was no problem if each country (in West Africa) had a refinery. "If you are not competitive in the market, your refinery will either fail or succeed due to economics and not politics."...

Gold prices?reduced on Monday, as the recent U.S. - Iran?strikes in the Gulf pushed up oil prices. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes also weighed on this non-yielding material. As of 0602 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.8%, at $4,057.77 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.6% to $4072.20. Metal was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 10.5%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "U.S.-Iran were back at it over the weekend with new military strikes reported from both parties. This casts doubt on how long oil...

Gold prices?reduced on Monday, as the recent U.S. - Iran?strikes in the Gulf pushed up oil prices. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes also weighed on this non-yielding material. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was down 0.7%, at $4,061.35 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery lost 0.5%, to $4076.40. Metal was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 10.4%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "U.S.-Iran were back at it over the weekend with new military?strikes from both parties. This casts doubt on how long oil will remain at...