South Asia

Five sources familiar with the talks claim that Pakistan is negotiating a broader?defence agreement with Kuwait, in exchange for energy investment and cooperation. All sources agreed that the talks are still in a 'early stage' and could be complicated by the heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, according to one source. According to a report on Thursday, there are growing concerns in Islamabad about the possibility that the mutual defence agreement signed with Saudi Arabia last year could drag Pakistan into a war between Iran and the United States. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country, told Iran that it would...

Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that top Russian energy companies approached Indian refiners to request more gasoline following Ukrainian strikes which knocked out a large portion of Russia's refueling capacity. India is Russia's largest buyer of seaborne crude oil. Moscow's attempt to secure Indian gasoline represents a reversal of their energy relationship and highlights the impact of the Ukrainian attacks. Moscow is experiencing its worst gasoline shortage. One source with knowledge on the subject said that at least one cargo of Indian gas has already been shipped to Russia. More are expected. Nearly 40% of Russia's refinery...

World Leaks, a ransomware group, has released on the dark Web a large cache of files relating to India's largest nuclear plant. These include purported blueprints for parts of its facilities as well as supplier details. The information was labelled by World Leaks as being from Reliance Group. Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant is located in the southern state of Tamil Nadu and is the largest among India's seven nuclear plants. It's also the center of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans to increase the country's capacity for?atomic energy?. Reliance Group of Indian businessman Anil Ambani, one of the plants' contractors,...

Traders and fuel market participants reported that the fuel?shortages?in Russia caused by?Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries?have reached Central Asian nations, who are dependent on Russian supplies. Sources claim that the amount of jet fuel shipped by rail by Central Asia and Afghanistan dropped 92% from May to 3,800 metric tons in June, while gasoline supplies fell 34% to 99 300 tonnes. According to traders, diesel exports grew?in June from 167.500 tons in May to 237.700 tons. Despite the larger drop in June, Russian fuel imports to Central Asia & Afghanistan rose by 7% from a year earlier to 3,82...

Spot premiums for Indian naphtha have risen to levels seen last in late March as tight supplies from the Middle East and Russia, and renewed concerns about U.S.-Iran tensions, drove demand from Far East buyers. Multiple trade sources reported?on Monday that Indian state refiners Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. sold about '63,000-65,000 tonnes (567,000-585,00 barrels) or naphtha through tenders last week, at prices similar to those seen in late March. BPCL sold a total of 36,000-37,000 tonnes of?naphtha on a 'free-on-board' (FOB basis) to Middle East quotes for loading between July 30 and 31. HPCL sold 27,000-28,000 tons...

India's Oil?and?Natural?Gas Corp. will build a 1,75 million metric tons (about 13,000,000 barrels) strategic petroleum reserve at Mangalore, in southern India. The company announced this in a late-night stock exchange filing on Thursday. India, which is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world, was severely affected by the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz - during the Iran War. Around a fifth (25%) of all energy in the world passes through this?waterway. India has increased its energy cooperation, with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Japan and others, in order to strengthen its emergency stockpile....

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 again on Wednesday, to 3.0%. It warned of the ongoing risks caused by the Middle East war, trade fragmentation, and possible corrections in the market expectations regarding AI. Global lender said the war had prevented a more severe downturn in the global economy, and that the demand-driven growth in the tech industry helped?to _offset the drop in energy supply caused by the war. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027 at 3.4%, which is below the 3.5% average seen in 2024-2025. The IMF increased its headline inflation forecast for...

Long/short hedge fund results prove that fundamentals are still important, and Europe continues underestimating its global power. In this midweek article, I will highlight some key stories that caught me eye?this week and may have been lost in the daily flood of market news. The pump doesn't work The late U.S. John McCain said in 2014 that "Russia is just a gas station posing as a nation." If that's the case, reports of Russia's people running out of fuel in the 4.5 year long war with Ukraine seem both absurd and very significant. The attacks on Russia's infrastructure have led...

Two Pakistani sources claim that Pakistan is quietly mediating between Libya’s rival eastern-western?power centers. This effort, which was previously unknown, will raise Pakistan's diplomatic profile, if successful. The Pakistani involvement comes after months of monitoring a U.S. led push to find diplomatic solutions in Libya. The Trump administration has repeatedly credited Pakistan's role in separate mediation between Iran and the U.S. This year. One of the Pakistani source said that the U.S. had been "fully aware and engaged" with Islamabad’s Libya role. Both sources confirmed that Saudi Arabia was also supporting the effort. Islamabad and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual...

The Danish brewer, Carlsberg, has filed a confidential application for an IPO of its Indian operations, the company announced on Thursday. It joins a growing number of multinationals seeking to tap India's booming equity markets. The 'confidential - route allows companies to keep the IPO filings they make with the country’s markets regulator secret until the launch. Two sources familiar with the matter said that Carlsberg India's planned listing would not raise new capital, but it would allow its parent company to sell a portion of its stake. The brewery is a fully owned subsidiary of Carlsberg Group. This move...

Two industry sources confirmed on Wednesday that Russia began importing gasoline by sea from India in an effort to reduce fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks against its energy infrastructure. Fuel shortages have been felt in all 11 time zones of Russia, with long queues and record gasoline prices. The Kremlin announced on Tuesday that Russia is in contact with other nations and discussing the importation of fuel at reasonable prices. The Indian oil ministry and the Russian energy ministry have not responded to requests for comment. A source in the industry said that at least 60,000 tons of gasoline...

A poll on Tuesday showed that analysts have cut their oil price forecasts 2026 for the first time since the Iran War began. This follows five consecutive months of increases. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about?prolonged disruptions in supply. According to the'monthly' survey of 31 economists, analysts and other experts, Brent crude will average $84.50 a barrel by 2026 compared to $90.44 last month. U.S. crude oil was projected to average $79.49 per barrel, down from the $84.63 estimate in May. These revisions represent a decline of more than 6% from estimates made in May....

India's coal-fired plants have enough?coal to operate for two weeks at higher rates. This eases concerns about fuel shortages due to a?rising demand for electricity and a?lower-than-average rainfall during the monsoon season. The power ministry said in a response to the parliament that coal stocks at power stations stood at 42,8 million tonnes on July 12. This is enough for 14 full days of operation with an 85% load factor. It added that utilities are also able to obtain enough coal to meet their daily needs. The peak demand for power in India increased last week by nearly 270.1 gigawatts,...

UltraTech 'Cement, India’s largest cement manufacturer?by capacity?, announced a nearly 17% increase in the first-quarter profit?on Monday and?announced plans to add capacity in fiscal 2028. UltraTech's strong results indicate that it used its size and position in the market to absorb higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict more effectively than smaller competitors. Petcoke and coal prices, which are the main fuels used in cement kilns remained high during the quarter. Cement makers increased prices by about 2.5% to 3% but the increase was partly offset by rising costs. The net profit for the quarter ended 30 June...

India's JSW Steel reported a?profit in the first quarter that was more than twice as high, exceeding analyst estimates. Net profit margins also improved due to a?resilient volume and?firmer domestic prices, which outweighed the?pressure?from higher coal costs. The top steelmaker in the country reported on Friday a net profit of 482.79 million rupees (46.51 billion rupiahs) for the three-month period ended June 30. LSEG data shows that analysts had predicted an average of 31.11 billion rupees. Elara Capital analysts said that prices of flat steel products like hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils rose in India both sequentially and on an annual...

India's statistics secretary announced that the country will launch a headline "Index of Services Production" within months. This index will give investors for the first time a monthly measure of output in India's dominant service sector. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation published trial monthly indices on Tuesday for 19 sub-sectors of formal services, covering approximately 60% of that economy. However, it did not release a composite headline measurement. India does not have an official monthly measure of output in its dominant service sector. In an interview late Thursday, Statistics Secretary Saurabh Garg stated that "we?are hopeful" to be...

India's SBI Funds Management drew bids worth ?3 trillion Indian rupees ($31.14 billion), making the asset manager's $1.03 billion initial public ?offering (IPO) the country's fourth-most-subscribed issue. The $278.5 millions raised by anchor investors, such as BlackRock, sovereign wealth funds in Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Norway, is included in the IPO subscription numbers. India's primary stock market made a strong return with the IPO that closed on Thursday. This was after a subdued start to the year. India will see a flurry of public offerings during the second half of the year. Reliance Jio's mega listing and the National Stock...

India's trade minister said that the talks between India and America are "progressing well" and New Delhi does not see any obstacles to a successful conclusion of a deal. The framework agreement is complete. The framework deal will be signed when the time is right, said Rajesh Agrawal, trade secretary, at a June press conference, as he presented monthly data on exports and imports. In February, both sides agreed on a?18% tariff on Indian goods as a trade-off for New Delhi to lower its trade barriers and buy more American goods. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating President Donald Trump’s...

Gold prices eased Friday, and were on track for a weekly decline. Higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict fueled inflation fears and raised expectations of tighter U.S. policy. By 2:10 pm EDT (1810 GMT), spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,103.23 an ounce. It had fallen 1.7% in the past week. U.S. Gold Futures for August were around 0.7% lower, at $4.113.70 an ounce. Bart Melek is global head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. He said that the major 'factor' here was the resumption of tensions between Iran and the U.S. Investors are not keen to...

India's import restrictions have caused shortages on the world's largest market for precious metals, driving premiums up to their highest levels in six months despite a weaker than usual demand. India's lower imports, which meet more than 80% its silver demand by purchasing it overseas, could have a negative impact on the global price of silver, as well as help narrow its trade deficit and reduce pressure on its currency, the rupee. Chirag Thakkar, the chief executive officer of Amrapali Group Gujarat - a major silver importer - said that "Silver Imports are almost at a standstill, creating a severe...

Dutch prosecutors announced on Wednesday that they had opened a criminal case against Tata Steel's Dutch subsidiary for "intentionally polluting" the environment. The prosecutors said a criminal probe?into Tata’s massive plant in?IJmuiden on the Dutch coast, west of Amsterdam, gave clear indications that company did not take enough care to avoid hazardous pollution. Tata was also accused of operating without the necessary licences and inadequate maintenance for its highly polluting coke oven. Tata's Dutch division, which is part of Tata, said that they disagreed with these accusations and had made significant improvements to reduce pollution in the past years. It...

The Indonesian Presidential 'palace' announced on Tuesday that India and Indonesia had?signed an agreement on the BrahMos Cruise Missile System. During his two-day trip to Indonesia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited President Prabowo Sibito. This was his first visit to Southeast Asia since 2023. According to a Jakarta announcement that did not provide any details, BrahMos - an India/Russia joint venture missile company - and Indonesia's Defence Ministry signed a deal for the BrahMos system of missile defense. The?reported on Tuesday earlier that India would supply the BrahMos missile defense system to Indonesia and also?the Astra Air-to-Air missile, citing...

Gold rose on Friday, and was expected to gain a weekly profit after four weeks of losses. Weak U.S. job data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near future. Gold spot was up 1.3% to $4,176.29 an ounce at 1006 GMT after reaching its highest level since June 23. Bullion is above its 21-day moving average and up over 2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 1.53% to $4188.80/oz. Data released on Thursday revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in the U.S. last month. This was below the 110,000 economists had...

Gold gained 1% on Friday, and investors were set to?make their?first weekly gains in five as they dialed back expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes after softer than expected jobs data. As of 0612 GMT spot gold was up by 1% to $4,165.29 an ounce. It had earlier reached its highest level since the 23rd of June. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 1.3% to $4,178.50. Bullion is on track to gain 1.8% in a week, its first weekly gain since?May 29. Weaker-than-expected data from nonfarm payrolls as well as private payrolls have tempered inflation concerns and interest rates...