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Jackson Hole: Global stock markets fall as traders wait for Ukraine talks

Jackson Hole: Global stock markets fall as traders wait for Ukraine talks

The U.S. shares and European stocks started the week cautiously, ahead of an eventful week in U.S. rate policy. Attention turned to Washington, where Volodymyr Zelenskiy from Ukraine and European leaders would meet Donald Trump.

S&P 500 remained near its Friday high in the early trading on Monday.

The MSCI All Country World Index was also down 0.15% and within touching distance of Friday's record high.

In the Asian session earlier, indexes in Japan, Taiwan, and China reached record highs, while an indicator of Chinese stocks hit its highest level for a decade.

After Trump's Friday summit with Russian president Vladimir Putin, investors were preparing for the meeting between U.S. Presiden Trump and Zelenskiy as well as European leaders on Monday. The two will discuss the next steps in ending the war in Ukraine.

Trump appeared to be more in line with Moscow after the summit, even though there was no agreement. Instead of first seeking a ceasefire with Ukraine, Trump wanted a peace deal that included all aspects.

After the Russia-U.S. discussions on Friday, Lars Skovgaard said, "It's going to be a quiet start to the new week."

Skovgaard said that, whether or not an agreement is reached, the focus is already shifting to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place from August 21-23. Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking on the economy outlook and central bank’s policy framework.

The markets are pricing in a 25% rate cut during the Fed meeting on September 17 and a further reduction by December.

Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said that he saw three rate cuts this year in the U.S., a slower GDP but no recession. The combination of these two factors should allow the rally continue.

Stock markets have been buoyed by the prospect of lower borrowing rates globally. Japan's Nikkei has reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.1% after reaching a record high of four years last week.

In Europe, the DAX in Germany fell by 0.2%. The FTSE in Britain was down by 0.1%.

Stocks are rallying due to a strong earnings season. The S&P 500's EPS increased 11% over the past year, and 58% of companies have raised their guidance for the full-year.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that the results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. While Nvidia is yet to release its earnings, Magnificent Seven grew their EPS in 2Q by 26% over the previous year, which was a 12% improvement relative to expectations going into earnings season.

Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all report this week.

A FED POLICY that is a concern

The possibility of Fed easing keeps short-term Treasury rates down, while the longer end of the curve is under pressure from the threat of stagflation, and huge budget deficits. This has led to the steepest yield curvature since 2021.

The prospect of higher borrowing for increased defence spending has also pushed German and French long term yields to the highest levels since 2011.

The dollar has been impacted by bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.4% last week against a basket currency to end at 97.858.

The dollar rose slightly against the yen to 147.85 while the euro fell to $1.1673, after adding 0.5% the previous week.

Gold, the most important commodity, rose 0.1%, to $3,340 per ounce, after falling 1.9% in the previous week.

Trump has backed down from his threats to impose more restrictions on Russian crude oil exports. Brent crude was just 0.1% lower at $65.79 per barrel while U.S. oil stood at $62.71.

(source: Reuters)