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Iron ore prices rise as Hebei mills restart production; however, auto weakness limits the upside.
Iron ore futures rose on Thursday as mills in China’s steelmaking hub of Hebei completed regulatory checks. However, weaker auto sales and a softer outlook of car exports could limit price gains. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange traded 1.34% higher, at 795.5 Yuan ($115.68). As of 0707 GMT, the benchmark April iron ore price on Singapore Exchange?rose by 1.01% to $100.22 per ton. According to a report from the Shanghai Metals Market, hot metal production decreased 'this week after several steel mills were inspected for safety and environmental concerns during important government meetings held in Beijing. Next week, iron ore demand should increase as output improves. Mysteel, a consultancy, said that construction companies will buy 5,64 million tons in March. This represents a 17% increase from the previous month. The demand for steel typically increases in March, as construction begins again with warmer weather conditions and mills ramp-up production following Lunar New Year repairs. Mysteel said that scrap steel production, which is typically?melted in electric arc furnaces, and then further processed to produce steel, will also rebound in March following a 'February dip. The outlook for auto exports has been dampened by the fact that China's wholesale car sales fell 15% in February. In recent years, China's automotive sector has been a major consumer of steel. This helps to offset some of the weakness in?the country?s struggling real estate market. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, jumped by 2.13% and 1.56 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's steel benchmarks have largely advanced. Rebar increased by 0.42%. Hot-rolled coils climbed by 0.37%. Stainless steel hardened up to 0.88%. Meanwhile, wire rod shed 0.21%. $1 = 6.8768 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Ruth Chai, Sumana Nady, and Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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US opens unfair trade probes to rebuild Trump’s tariff pressure
The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that it was launching two trade inquiries into excessive industrial capacity and forced labor in 16 major trading partner countries. This is to rebuild tariff pressure following the Supreme Court's decision last month which threw out much of Trump's tariff plan. According to U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, 'South Korea, and Mexico could be subjected to new tariffs as early as this summer, under a 'Section 301' investigation into unfair trade practices. Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand are also trading partners that may be subject to an investigation under Section 301 of Trade Act of 1974. Other trading partners include Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland, and Norway. Canada, the U.S.'s second largest trading partner, wasn't mentioned in the investigation. China said Thursday that the U.S. claim about overcapacity is a "false proposal" and Beijing opposes "political manipulating under this pretext". Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for the foreign ministry, said that China opposes all unilateral tariff measures. U.S. LOOKING AT TRADE SURPLUSES, UNDERUSED CAPACITY Greer said on a conference phone that investigations would "focus on economies where we have evidence that they exhibit structural excess production and capacity in various manufacturing sectors. For example, through persistently large trade surpluses or unutilized capacity." USTR's notice of the probe into excess capacity cited the automotive industry in China and Japan. It said that a growing number were unprofitable, or could not pay interest from their operations. Minoru Kihara, the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, said at a press conference that the country is examining the details of the Section 301 investigation but will continue with its current trade agreement with the U.S. USTR stated that although China's capacity for electric vehicles is greater than the demand in China, BYD, China's largest EV manufacturer, is "aggressively increasing" its overseas manufacturing footprint with factories in Uzbekistan and Thailand as well as Brazil, Hungary, and Turkey. The industry ministry, without providing any further details, said that South Korea would work to ensure its exporters are not treated unfairly compared with other major countries. Taiwan's Cabinet said in a press release that the agreement it signed last month with the U.S. on reciprocal trade established consensus on multiple issues which could be covered by Section 301 investigation. Indonesia also said that its agreement with the U.S. was the main guideline for bilateral trade relations. The Department of Foreign Trade's director general, Arada Fuangtong told reporters that the Thai Commerce Ministry had set up a group to prepare for the investigation under 301. They will begin discussions shortly, prepare all documents and be "as ready as we can" according to Arada. USTR cited the large U.S. surpluses on trade in Germany and Ireland to demonstrate EU excess capacity. Singapore, despite having a deficit in trade with the U.S., has an excess of global semiconductor capacity. Norway also had excess capacity as evidenced by its large seafood and fuel exports. USTR ALSO PLANS A PROBE ON FORCED STAFF Greer announced that he will launch another Section 301 investigation on Thursday. This provision bans U.S. imports for?goods made with forced labor. This investigation will include shipments from over 60 countries. Under the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act that was signed into law in 2009 by former President Joe Biden, the U.S. has already taken action against solar panels and other goods imported from China's Xinjiang Region. The new investigation could extend such actions to countries other than China. Greer stated that he wants?other countries enforcing bans on goods made with forced labor, similar to those in a nearly 100-year-old trade law. The U.S. claims that Chinese authorities have set up labor camps for ethnic Uyghurs and other Muslim groups in the western region. Beijing denies the allegations. Greer stated that he hoped the Section 301 investigation, and any proposed remedies, would be completed before Trump's temporary tariffs, imposed in late February, expire in July. The Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global duties were illegal on February 20 under the national emergencies law. He then imposed a 10% duty for 150 days in accordance with Section 122 of 1974 Trade Act. He outlined a timeline for the "excess capacity" probe. Public comments were accepted until April 15, and there would be a public hearing on May 5. The investigations offer the Trump Administration an opportunity to build a credible threat of tariffs against trading partners in order to keep them negotiating, and to implement trade agreements that were cut for him to lower his higher tariff rates under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The investigations come as 'Trump officials, led by U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, prepare to meet Chinese counterparts this?week in Paris to set up Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the?month in Beijing. The Supreme Court's decision on temporary tariffs and Trump's tariffs were reduced by 10 percent by the Supreme Court. This effectively reduced U.S. trade and export control leverage over China. Reporting by David Lawder and Ismail Shakil, respectively, in Washington, and Ottawa. Additional reporting by Eduardo Baptista and Heejin in Seoul; Ben Blanchard and Stefanno Sulaiman, respectively, in Jakarta, and Panarat Thepgumpanat, respectively, in Bangkok. Editing by Matthew Lewis and Stephen Coates.
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Sources say that commodities trader IXM is considering restarting aluminium trading.
Two sources familiar with the matter said that commodities trader IXM has held preliminary 'talks' with major aluminium suppliers and is looking to restart its aluminium trading business in 2019. One source said that Geneva-based IXM owned by China's CMOC Group, and one of world's biggest traders of non-ferrous physical metals has been discussing internally the rebuilding of a?team to trade aluminium since December. The source said that no team had been formed so far. IXM met with Chinese metals producer Lygend Resources, a second source confirmed. A CMOC spokesperson stated that "as a 'trading company', IXM would adjust the specific trading products?according to the market conditions." IXM and Lygend didn't immediately respond to comments. This move coincides, in part, with forecasts that there will be a shortage of light metals used for transport and construction as well as packaging due to the demand being driven by electrification and carbonisation. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange is up 38% since 2025. It reached a four-year high of $3,544 a metric ton earlier this week. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran could worsen this?deficit, as it has frozen shipments originating from the Gulf region, which is responsible for 9% of the global supply. IXM lists cobalt, lead, zinc and?nickel in its trading portfolio, but not aluminium. One source said that the trading house closed its aluminium business in 2024. Reporting by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan from Beijing and Shanghai; editing by Kevin Buckland
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What impact could persistently high oil price have on India's fragile economy?
The external balance of India and its government finances may be affected if oil prices remain high for a long time, according to economists. This is because the Iran War will increase the cost of oil imports and the subsidies required to keep key commodities affordable. India is considered one of the most vulnerable countries to an oil shock because it imports almost 90% of its crude and about 50% of its natural gas. India imports more than?half? of its crude from the Middle East where the U.S./Israeli war against Iran has disrupted export flows. India's oil reserves are currently only enough to last 20-25 days. The gas shortages are already affecting industries and consumers. Iran has also threatened a long-term conflict with oil at $200 per barrel. The South Asian nation may also experience a sharp decline in growth and an increase in inflation if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel for a period of 12 months. In its last monthly report, the government warned that a prolonged crisis would increase the current account deficit of the country, weaken the rupee, and fuel inflation. Current Account Deficit India's deficit in the current account would have the most immediate effect. The rupee has fallen to a new record low due to this concern, and the central bank was forced to sell its dollars. The rating agency ICRA stated in a report that a $100 average barrel price would increase the current account deficit from 0.7% to 0.8% of GDP projected for 2026/27, to 1.9%-2.2%. India's current-account deficit reached 2% for the last time in 2022. The financial year of India runs from April 1 to March 31, FISCAL DEFICIT Elara Securities, a Mumbai-based brokerage firm, estimates that the federal government's annual spending could rise by 3.6 trillion rupees (about 39 billion dollars) if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel. According to the budget for the year that was presented in February, the government estimates its total expenditures at 53.5 trillion rupees. Subsidies for fertilisers would be a key expenditure to ensure that farmers can afford the essential input. Elara Securities stated that at an average price per barrel of $100, fertiliser subsides could increase by 200 billion rupees. The government may also have to compensate oil companies for keeping retail prices low. Although retail fuel prices are technically deregulated, Indian oil companies tend to delay price changes in economic hardship. The government targets a fiscal surplus of 4.3% for 2026/27. Elara Securities stated that if the government chooses to maintain this deficit, they may be forced to reduce long-term spending on infrastructure, which is used to boost jobs and growth. GROWTH AND INCLINATION IMPACT The Indian economy will?grow by more than 7% next year. This is on top of the 7.6% growth forecast for the current year. In a report published on March 7, the State Bank of India's research department stated that if oil prices remain near $100 per barrel for the rest of the financial year, GDP could drop to 6.6%, and inflation to 4.1%. It said that if oil prices were to average $130 per barrel, GDP growth could fall to 6%. Sanjay Malhotra, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said that India's economy was in a phase of "Goldilocks". Inflation is low, despite the strong growth, and was only 2.75 percent in January. This is close to the lower limit of the central banks comfort zone of 2%-6%.
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Sources say that commodities trader IXM is considering restarting aluminium trading.
Two sources with knowledge of the matter said that commodities trader IXM has begun initial talks with aluminium suppliers and is looking to restart its aluminum trading business in 2019. One source said that Geneva-based IXM owned by China's CMOC Group, and one of world's biggest traders of non-ferrous physical metals has been discussing internally the rebuilding of a team to trade aluminium since?December. A CMOC spokesperson said: "As a trader, IXM will adjust the trading product to match market conditions." IXM and Lygend didn't immediately respond to comments. This move coincides with some forecasts that?light metals used in 'transport, construction and packing?will be in short supply as demand is driven by electrification and carbonisation. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange is up 38% since 2025. This week, it reached a four-year high of $3,544 per ton. The U.S. and Israel war against Iran could worsen this deficit, as it has frozen?shipments out of the Gulf region, which account for around 9% %of the 'global supply. IXM lists cobalt and copper in its trading portfolio, along with gold, nickel and?lead&zinc, but no aluminium. One source said that the trading house closed its aluminium business in 2024. The sources added that IXM was in talks with major producers of aluminium for possible cooperation. One source said that the company had held discussions with China's Lygend Resources, on Wednesday. Reporting by Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson.
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South Korean Parliament approves $350 billion US investment bill
South Korea's Parliament passed a special law on Thursday that will pave the way for Seoul to fulfill its $350 billion commitments in strategic U.S. industry under a trade agreement?agreed?last year. The law implements the trade agreement signed by South Korea in November, under which it agreed to invest $150 billion into shipbuilding and $200 billion in strategic industries in the United States in exchange for more favorable tariff terms. In a Thursday plenary meeting, the National Assembly approved it with bipartisan backing. The legislation is expected to be in force within three months. It will form the basis for a state-backed investment company with a capital of 2 trillion won ($1.4billion) and a strategic fund. The bill names shipbuilding as a priority investment sector, along with semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals. Energy, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and energy are also included. The U.S. government requires that all investments meet the "commercial feasibility" principle, which means they must be able to generate enough cash flow over their lifetime to pay principal and interest. If national security or the stability of supply chains are in question, exceptions can be made if approved by relevant South Korean parliament committees. A joint U.S. and South Korea committee led by the Industry Minister of South Korea will assess any proposed projects. Meanwhile, a committee headed by the Finance Minister will decide if they should be forwarded to a U.S. panel, headed up by Secretary of Commerce. Uncertainties about the FX and Tariff Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened in late January to increase tariffs on South Korean products to 25%. He said that Seoul had not yet enacted the trade framework which had set U.S. levies to 15%. South Korean officials said that the deal is still valid despite a U.S. Supreme Court 'decision? in February which struck down a majority of Trump's tariffs. Seoul officials have expressed concerns over the impact that U.S. investment will have on a weakening won. They also said that projects would be evaluated based on both commercial feasibility and foreign exchange market conditions. South Korea has been?included? in a larger?U.S. The U.S. Trade Representative has warned that the "Section 301", a probe into excess industrial capacities, could lead to new tariffs against major trading partners. Kim Jung-kwan, the Industry Minister of South Korea, told a parliamentary committee that South Korea was expecting the U.S. investigation. The Foreign Ministry stated that Washington had indicated its intention to reinstate tariffs which were struck down by U.S. Supreme Court based on the investigation. South Korea would consult with the U.S. in order to 'ensure existing tariff balance remains preserved 'and the country does not suffer any disadvantage. Yeo Han Koo, a trade envoy, told media that Washington was aiming to reduce its investigation to between four and five months. This would allow Washington to revise tariffs back to levels before the U.S. Supreme Court ruling sometime after mid-July. (Reporting and editing by Ed Davies; Additional reporting by Heejin KIM)
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Official: Gulf trio reviews sovereign investments to offset Iran War Impact
Gulf officials said that three Gulf states were reviewing the way they invest trillions of dollars from their sovereign wealth funds to offset the losses caused by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The official who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the review could include divestments, reversals of investment pledges, and a reevaluation of global sponsoring deals. This is because the oil and gas-rich states are assessing how to deal with the financial shock. The top four economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. Three of the four largest economies in the GCC will be assessing current and future investments and sponsorships to see if the situation lasts. The official said that "a review of their investment strategies for sovereign wealth funds has already begun." The official said that the talks were between representatives from the government and not the funds, and that the assessments are not coordinated. In only 12 days, this conflict has dealt a serious economic blow to some of the largest economies in the Gulf, crippling the aviation, tourism, port and logistics networks. It also cut off 'key commercial arteries. 5 TRILLION DOLLARS IN WEALTH The UAE has said that it will stick to its investment plan. In a recent statement, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it had adopted "forward-looking economic strategies" which would enhance its ability to absorb geopolitical or economic pressures. In this regard, the UAE has not changed its investment plans or economic priorities for the long term. A Saudi source said that the Public Investment Fund of the Kingdom is crucial to its economic transformation agenda. It is not expected to change long-term investments plans because of the current geopolitical environment. The Saudi Arabian finance ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Qatar's Finance Ministry has not responded to our request for comment. Kuwait's Ministry for Economic Affairs and Investment was unable comment. Analysts say a fiscal shock could lead to a review of the way the $5 trillion in sovereign wealth funds accumulated by the region is used. But the official's remarks show that this process is already underway. The official stated that "once the war is finished, we'll see the balance sheet and figure out how to cover our losses." Analysts at JPMorgan cut their growth predictions for non-oil industries by 1.2 percentage point for GCC countries and 2.3 points for the UAE. This was the most drastic revision in the group. JPMorgan analysts warn that, while the hydrocarbon industry could recover depending on the length of the conflict in the coming year, there will be some lasting damage to the non-hydrocarbon activities and this could affect the diversification plans for the region. WIDE REACH and BIG COMMITMENT Gulf States have tried to diversify their economies but oil and Gas revenues still anchor the public finances which are very different in strength throughout the region. Kuwait's KIA, the UAE's ADIA, Saudi Arabia's PIF and Qatar's QIA are among the largest sovereign funds in the world, with assets accumulated over decades of investment at home and abroad. Officials said that the reassessment includes global assets, not just U.S. assets. The United States is already one of most popular destinations for Gulf sovereign funds, with governments having pledged trillions in future investments since President Donald Trump's return to the White House. US. Gulf sovereign investors weigh the impact of the conflict on global sponsorship and investment deals. The size of the overseas pledges and sponsorship is huge. The UAE, for instance, agreed to invest $50 billion in Canada last year. QIA, which is backed by Qatari Diar, signed a landmark coastal development worth $30 billion on an undeveloped stretch of Egypt's Mediterranean coast. Qatar Airways is sponsoring Formula 1 motorsports until 2027. Mubadala has a title sponsorship in a number of ATP and WTA events. PIF became an official partner for the FIFA World Cup this year. SLOWING NEW COMMITMENTS Analysts predict that these positions will not be unwinded immediately. However, they said the pace and direction for new capital deployments may change. The first reaction should not be to sell off global assets. "Before unwinding any overseas assets, they will evaluate the potential impact, and whether there is a value-add in redirecting this capital locally," said Jahangir Aka founder of London's Aka & Associates. Aka said, "For the time being, the 'Gulf Investments' global investments provide resilience as a diverter, and it is unlikely that you will see a'significant trimming, as these assets continue to produce income for governments in their home countries." Aka explained that "you may instead see a slower pace in new commitments, and defer money to overseas countries until there is more clarity about any structural impact the current conflict." Reporting by Andrew Mills, Rachna uppal, Federico Maccioni, and Hadeel al Sayegh, in Doha; Additional reporting by Ahmed Hagagy. Writing by Federico Maccioni, Andrew Mills, and Andrew Mills. Editing by Mahal Dahan, ElisaMartinuzzi, Anousha Sakowi, and Alexander Smith.
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Korea Zinc talks to US tech companies about removing rare earths from waste data centres
Chairman of firm says that it has made acquisitions related to the company's business. The US plans a $7.4 billion smelter. The US will reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths through a number of projects By Heejin Kim SEOUL, 12 March - Korea Zinc has been in discussions with major U.S. tech firms about recycling data centre wastes and extracting rare earths. This is part of a U.S. effort to reduce its reliance on Chinese minerals. In an interview, Yun B. Choi, the Chairman of the firm, said that it is one of 'the world's largest smelters. It also hopes to secure solar and battery panel wastes containing rare earths and metals, which are needed in areas such as electronic, electric vehicles, defence and energy. The initiative will provide the U.S. with another source of rare Earths beyond the U.S.'s single mine, and its main supplier China. China produces 90% of all rare earths produced in the world and has restricted?exports as part of a tariff-war sparked by the U.S. Choi stated that the U.S. Government has continuously advocated for recycling of critical minerals because it is 'aware' that a large amount of these minerals were exported via multiple countries to China. He said that for the past two-years, "we have quietly researched technologies to 'extract rare Earths. Choi refused to reveal the amount or technology firms involved, but said Korea Zinc had invested in recycling. This included?buying a scrap metal trader and electronic waste recycler. He said: "If we could?provide a process or solution?to extract and refine new rare earths, as well as provide them in the United States I believe the business value will be significant." NEW U.S. SMELTER The South Korean company announced in December that it would build a critical minerals smelter worth $7,4 billion in Tennessee. This is the first U.S. smelter to be built since the 1970s, and the first one funded by the U.S. Government. Korea Zinc said that the smelter would produce 540,000 tons of non-ferrous minerals, including 11 critical metals such as gallium, antimony and germanium. Choi, citing the U.S. national security as a primary factor, said that the U.S. attitude towards critical minerals had changed dramatically after China implemented its export control on rare Earths in April 2025. Korea Zinc posted a record operating profit of 1.2 trillion won (813 million dollars) in 2013, driven by the sale of antimony. The U.S. lists this metal as "critical" for nuclear weapons and military applications. Choi said, "Last was the year of antimony." According to data from the U.S. Geological Survey, the average price of anthracite in 2025 will be $25 per pound. This is more than twice as much as it was in 2024. Choi stated that Korea Zinc aims to achieve profit margins between 17% and 19% at the new smelter. Data from Seoul-based DB Securities showed that this would be higher than its 51-year old Korean refinery. Choi stated that the U.S., as a joint investor, is providing support. He cited fast-tracked permit approvals and expectations for?guaranteed minimal prices? for U.S. vital minerals projects. Choi said that the firm plans to begin construction early in 2027, and that the smelter will break even in a year after it begins operations in 2030.
Morning Bid Europe Newsletter-Iran expands war on shipping and Trump talks Strait
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
Two are needed to make peace. Someone forgot to tell 'Iran that the war was already won. As Tehran is stepping up attacks on ships in Gulf waters and warning the world about oil prices of $200 per barrel.
The oil industry's response to the International Energy Agency's record-breaking release plan is very telling. Investors are more concerned about the prospect of an extended blow to the supply of oil than Trump's words.
After being attacked by Iran-equipped boats with explosives, two?fuel tanks are on fire in Iraqi waters. This has forced the oil ports of that country to stop operations. Oman is said to have cleared out all ships from its main oil terminal.
Brent crude futures rose 9% to $100.07 after hitting as high as $119.5 earlier this week. U.S. Crude also gained 8%, reaching $94.25.
Trump responded that the U.S. "will look very closely at the Straits" when asked about the conflict.
The stock markets didn't take it well. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 1.6%, ending two consecutive days of gains. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.7%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Futures both fell by 1%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX futures fell 1.1%.
This will lead to an inflationary spiral, causing bond markets around the world to increase borrowing costs. Rate cuts are a thing of the past. The traders have bet that none of the five central bankers meeting next week in the United States, Europe Britain, Australia, and Canada will ease and only one, Australia, will increase rates.
The yields on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds have reached their highest level since August. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond auction was?still a disappointment. The 30-year bond auction is the focus of attention today. Who would lock in yields when inflation threatens to eat into future returns?
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
Bond auctions for 30-year US bonds
Initial jobless claims and US trade data in January
Michelle Bowman, Fed's Vice-Chair for Supervision
(source: Reuters)