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Copper reaches a two-week high amid uncertainty over tariffs and Iran risks
The market rose more than two weeks on Tuesday, as U.S. Tariff uncertainty and a?tightening of supply outside the U.S. boosted the price. Middle East peace talks also remained a focus. The benchmark three-month contract for copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.99% to $13,968.50 per metric tonne at 0705 GMT, after hitting $13,978. This was its highest level since May 14. After reaching its highest level since May 15, the most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.86% and closed daytime trading on 106620 yuan. The White House amended tariffs for some copper, aluminum?and iron imports, and reduced duties on certain agricultural and industrial equipment. However, the order did not address the larger copper tariff issue that has caused regional market dislocation. Analysts at ING Economics stated that "Tariff uncertainties is likely to support market sentiment." The premium of COMEX copper over LME has widened. This continues to encourage the shipment into U.S. warehouses. The discount for LME Cash Copper against three-month Copper Also, the gap between supply and demand has narrowed in recent months. Middle East remains in the spotlight after Lebanon announced a ceasefire between Hezbollah & Israel. However, fighting continues in southern Lebanon. A limited de-escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel has not ended the broader war against Iran. Iranian state media reported that Tehran was halting indirect talks with Washington, while a senior Iranian commander threatened to disrupt the 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Metals are more exposed to energy risk due to the conflict, but aluminium is directly affected as the Gulf produces around 9% global output. LME aluminium gained 1.63%, reaching $3,776.50 per ton, after hitting a four-year high of $3,787.50. Shanghai aluminium was up?2.10%, closing at 24,825 Yuan. Tin prices also rose. London tin jumped 3.25%, while its Shanghai counterpart soared 5.19%. On the LME, zinc gained 1.08%. Lead rose 0.77%. Nickel gained 0.54%. Nickel gained 1.14%, while lead rose by 0.18%.
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Sources say that China has allowed some independent refineries to reduce their output.
Consultancies and sources said that China's powerful planner allowed independent refiners?to cut output starting in June. This is a sign of Beijing growing confidence?that it can withstand an oil shock caused by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Horizon Insights published a report on Monday that said some refiners from the province of Shandong in eastern China, also known as teapots, could not reduce their output below 80% of the average monthly production of last year. The National Development and Reform Commission did not respond immediately to questions sent via fax. Beijing wanted to maintain domestic fuel supplies despite the disruption caused by the Iran War, which shut down the vital Middle East waterway. This policy forced refiners to cut output as margins collapsed. Sources said that some refiners in Shandong sought Beijing's permission early in May to reduce processing rates or suspend certain operations. One of two sources said that even with the new changes, the production requirements would still be a burden to the sector. The refinery loses money on every barrel and would rather shut down. The matter is sensitive, so all sources requested anonymity. Both gasoline and diesel are in plentiful supply According to Chinese consultancy OilChem, Shandong independents produced 16% of China’s gasoline in May and a quarter its diesel. Both?fuels? are in abundant supply now thanks to export restrictions and sharp drops in fuel demand from a fleet that has been rapidly electrifying over the last several years. OilChem reported that the average crude distillation run rate of independent refiners in Shandong was 53.39 percent in May. This is down 1.94 percentage points from April, but up 6.18 on the year due to supply-security requirements. It said that they were losing an average of 752 yuan (111.21 dollars) per ton of crude imported, as opposed to a loss of only 202 yuan a month earlier, due to 'weak demand for domestic fuel and increased crude prices caused by the Iran War. The Strait of Hormuz was responsible for a fifth of all crude oil and LNG shipments worldwide before the U.S./Israeli attacks on Iran. $1 = 6.7617 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting from Sam Li in Beijing and Siyi Liu, Chen Aizhu and Clarence Fernandez in Singapore)
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The Italian Foreign Minister says that Italy is expecting EU support for flexibility in energy spending.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated on Tuesday that the European Union will likely give a positive response to Italy's request for greater flexibility in energy-related expenditures. This would help Italian households and businesses deal with a high cost of energy. Tajani told Corriere della Sera daily that Rome's demand was "absolutely legit". He added that this leeway would remain in place until the?market conditions stabilize, including shipping through routes like?the Strait of Hormuz. Italy, which is heavily dependent on imported energy imports, has been pushing for the EU to adjust fiscal rules to better deal with the economic impact of energy shocks. "I don't believe that the EU won't give a positive response." Tajani, also the deputy prime minister, said: "I am confident." Italy has asked that the European Commission grant member states the same fiscal flexibility to deal with rising energy costs, as they currently allow for defence spending. Giorgia meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, warned in a May letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Rome would be unable to 'drop plans' to use the EU SAFE -defence program without this leeway. On Tuesday, several Italian newspapers reported that a response from Brussels might?come as soon as Wednesday, provided flexibility is used to invest and not for subsidies. (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens, Francesca Piscioneri)
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Gold prices rise on lower Treasury yields amid Middle East uncertainty
Gold prices rose on Tuesday due to a decrease in Treasury yields, as well as a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel and Hezbollah. Investors awaited more details about the U.S. Iran peace talks, despite conflicting reports. By 0556 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.8% to $4,517.33 per ounce. U.S. gold for August delivery rose 0.9% to $4,47.80. GoldSilver Central's Managing Director Brian Lan said, "It appears that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has led to a slight increase in gold prices." He added that lower Treasury yields had also helped the metal. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has decreased, reducing the cost of non-yielding gold. Lebanon announced on Monday a partial ceasefire in the conflict between Hezbollah, and Israel. This would be a de-escalation in a conflict which has claimed thousands of lives and sparked a wider war with Iran. Iranian state media had earlier reported that Tehran would stop indirect negotiations with the U.S., and could end the ceasefire. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump stated that talks with Iran are ongoing "at an accelerated pace." Investors await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Reports, both due in the coming week, in order to gauge the resilience of the labour market in light of?increasing concerns over inflation caused by the Middle East conflict. The Federal Reserve's policymakers including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Michael Barr and others will also be focusing on the topic to determine the future path of monetary policy. "On the plus side, it seems that the major barrier to overcome?here is right around $4900. If (gold) confidently reestablishes its foothold at the $5,000 mark, we will know that it is once again engaging with its longer-term dynamics," Ilya Spivak said, head of global macro for Tastylive. Other metals rose as well. Spot silver increased by 2.1%, to $76.41 an ounce. Platinum gained 1.8%, to $1958.67, and palladium increased 1.5%, to $1382.33. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru. Editing by Rashmi aich and Subhranshu Sahu.
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Asia stocks rebound as AI optimism offsets Middle East anxieties
Investors regained their footing on Tuesday in unsteady trades as they brushed aside doubts regarding the durability of a Middle East ceasefire and opted to return to AI-based plays. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.4%, after trading began. The index fluctuated between gains and losses. Korean shares fell as much as 3,3%, despite an initial higher opening. Gains in China and Hong Kong helped stabilize the regional benchmark. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% while the Nikkei225 in Japan dropped 0.7%. "This is not a revaluation of the AI market; it's a profit-taking following a blistering-fast run," said Fabien YIP, a Sydney-based analyst. She said that the ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have been a series of false starts ever since April. Today's lack progress is not an exception. The market is used to this back and forth. Brent crude fell 0.9% to $94.13 per barrel on Monday after Lebanon announced that Hezbollah had agreed to a partial ceasefire with Israel. This retraced some of the gains made Monday after reports claimed that Iran had stopped indirect negotiations with the U.S. The markets remain cautious due to the fragile nature of the ceasefire in April. The S&P 500 closed overnight 0.3% higher as ISM's Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. This was a surprise to many, who expected it to be the highest in four years. David Rosenberg said in a client note that "the equity market is in boom-mode" despite rising energy prices and real interest rates. The S&P 500 has now been up for nine consecutive weeks, a streak that we last saw in late 2023. KOSPI CAPER AI Suppliers in Asia gained after AI developer Anthropic announced it had filed confidentially for a U.S. Initial Public Offering, which could attract a trillion dollar valuation. Alphabet's shares fell 0.7% after-hours after the tech giant announced that it was looking to raise $80 Billion in equity offerings. This includes an investment by Berkshire Hathaway. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who is based in Taipei said that the AI industry leader has enough supply for the robust growth of central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), and other components. However, he acknowledged "that supply remains a concern." South Korean equities also exhibited a high degree of volatility, with the benchmark KOSPI swaying dramatically lower after reaching a record-high. This was due to bellwethers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix alternating between gains and losses. South Korea's consumer prices data also played a role in the markets. Inflation accelerated to a two-year high in May, boosting expectations of a rate increase next month. Last week, Bank of Korea indicated that it would soon adopt a more restrictive stance in order to combat?inflation as well as support the slumping won. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, held steady at 99.15. It is still within the narrow range that it has been in for the last three weeks. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was down 4.5 basis point at 4.43%. In choppy trading, gold was up by 0.9% to $4,523.58. Cryptocurrencies have fallen to a two-month low. Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $70,599.26 while ether dropped 0.5% to 1,992.04. (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes, Stephen Coates and Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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FT reports that the US is in talks with Europe to increase nuclear weapon deployments.
The Financial Times reported on Tuesday that the U.S. was 'discussing' whether or not to deploy nuclear weapons into?additional European NATO states. The FT reported that U.S. officials had indicated an openness to additional nuclear-capable deployments outside of the six countries currently hosting such bombers. Three people who were briefed about the discussions confirmed this. The newspaper said that the'move' would require more countries to host so called U.S. Dual-Capable?Aircraft (DCA), capable of delivering nuclear strikes. However, it cautioned that an agreement for expanding U.S. Nuclear Hosting was not imminent. The report stated that countries on NATO's eastern front, including Poland and some Baltic states, were interested in hosting DCA bases. Discussions are ongoing through NATO channels. Could not verify the report immediately. Requests for comment from the White House, Department?Defense or NATO were not immediately responded to. Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby previously stated that the U.S. will 'continue to use nuclear weapons to defend NATO members even though European allies take the lead in conventional forces. U.S. president Donald Trump and his aides have criticized?European allies? for not spending enough on their military?and relying solely on the U.S. to provide conventional defense. Gursimran K. in Bengaluru, Jacqueline Wong & Muralikumar Anantharaman edited the article.
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Oil prices drop after Trump announces talks with Iran.
The market was cautious on Tuesday about the progress of the U.S. and Iran?peace negotiations. U.S. president Donald Trump said on Monday that talks with Iran are ongoing. Earlier, the?Tasnim News Agency reported that Tehran had suspended indirect discussions with Washington. Brent crude futures fell 75 cents or 0.79% to $94.23 per barrel at 0434 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 85 cents or 0.92% to $91.31 per barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 5% the previous session after a loss of over 16% in may on the hope of a peace deal. "While the markets hoped to move beyond uncertainty amid the prospects of a possible deal, nothing seems to have changed in oil?as this morning", said Priyanka Sackdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. In an interview on CNBC, Trump stated that he didn't mind if talks ended. He then posted on social media that talks were still ongoing with Iran and told ABC News he expected a deal in the "next week" to extend the ceasefire, and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the market was focusing on the substance and tone of both parties' statements (especially Iran's threats about the Strait of Hormuz) and the actual tanker movements in the waterway. Waterer said that the status of U.S. Iran negotiations will determine if the current risk premium remains embedded in oil price or begins to unravel. Lebanon announced on Monday a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel and the Palestinian Authority. This would be a de-escalation in a conflict which has sparked a wider war against Iran. Since the start of the Gulf War, Iran has effectively stopped all non-Iranian shipping in and out of the Gulf. This has slowed down about a fifth global oil and gas flows. Prices have risen by more than 50%. U.S. crude oil exports reached a record of 5.6 million barrels each day in May, as the Middle East Crisis prompted refiners from Asia and Europe to increase their demand for U.S. oil. A preliminary poll released Monday shows that U.S. crude stocks are expected to be down by 3.6 million barrels for the week ending May 29. This is a continuation of the previous week's decline. Distillates and gasoline are also likely to be lower. Shipping executives meeting in Athens, Greece on Monday agreed that any deal reached between the U.S.A. and Iran must include clear rules to allow vessels to resume their normal operations through the Strait of Hormuz. (Reporting from Pooja Menon and Siyi Lu in Singapore, and editing by Sonali Paul & Jamie Freed.)
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Russell: Hormuz's losses can't be offset by the surge in US crude imports to Asia.
The record volume of U.S. Crude Oil is now arriving in Asia. However, it's not enough to compensate for the cargo losses caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia's imports from the U.S. of crude oil were 63.56 millions barrels, which was the highest for a single month. However, at 2,05 million barrels per a day (bpd), they were only slightly behind the 2.07 million bpd in June 20223. Kpler has tracked arrivals of 2,32 million bpd for June and 3,07 million bpd for July. The average import of U.S. Crude by Asia in the three-month period ending February was 1.37 million barrels per day. Iran was attacked by the United States, Israel and other countries on February 28, and Tehran responded with a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is where about 20% of crude oil and refined petroleum products were transported before the start of the conflict. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, two Middle Eastern oil exporters that have been able to divert some of their oil exports outside the Strait to other ports, still lack 10 million barrels per day as the Iran conflict continues. As some vessels received Iranian approval for transit, 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil reached Asia through the Strait of Hormuz in May. This is down from an average of 13.54 millions bpd during the three-month period ended in February. The volume of additional cargoes that Asia received from the United States and other exporters from the Americas, Africa, and Europe is dwarfed by the amount of lost cargoes. Kpler data shows that Asia's seaborne arrivals of crude oil in May increased from 18.7 million barrels per day in April. This was the lowest level in over 10 years. Even though May's arrivals were higher, they still fell 22% below the average of 24,82 million bpd over the three-month period ending in February. This loss of over 5 million bpd will lead to difficult choices for Asia's refining companies. They have been able to keep their plants running by using up strategic and commercial stockpiles as well as reducing the processing rate. There are questions about how long the world will be able to continue depleting its crude oil inventories before refiners have to drastically reduce their throughput. When will the CRUNCH arrive? Most analysts and oil executives agree that the clock is getting louder. Some regions will be able to produce and refine oil at normal rates while others may struggle to get enough. If the Strait Of Hormuz doesn't reopen in the next few weeks and does not remain open in a sustainable manner, then it is likely that the price of refined fuels will increase to reduce demand. Asia, where 80% of fuel is imported through the Strait of Hormuz was the worst affected. It's most likely that the less developed, fuel-importing nations such as Bangladesh and Pakistan will feel the effects the quickest. In the United States, there will also be more questions about the rapid depletion in inventories despite record crude and products exports. Both major U.S. political parties tend to concentrate on domestic issues. It's not a surprise to see that they are increasingly opposed to oil and fuel imports, in the mistaken belief that it will lower retail prices here at home. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
Mike Dolan: ROI-AI frenzy also fuels inflation heat
Iran's energy boom may mask a larger inflation concern. AI prices are rising, and this boom will outlast any Gulf hiatus.
Not least the major central banks are watching the crude price fluctuations around the Iran conflict to see how it will affect the cost of living. The AI investment frenzy has also been fueling a flurry of factory activity, a rise in construction, and a possible increase in prices.
The massive business investment expenditure is expected to reach trillions of dollars in the future. Already, it is affecting company earnings, stock prices and projections, as well the aggregate GDP. Direct effects on consumer price are also closely examined.
AI is a topic that has generated a lot of concern, mainly because of its potential deflationary impact and long-term effects on employment. Few have focused on the inflationary pressure that is likely to come first.
The Federal Reserve published a detailed paper last month co-authored by Stephen Miran. It highlights one area in which the AI boom could already be driving up consumer prices.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge for personal consumption expenditures, or PCEs, showed a dramatic rise in "Computer Software and Accessories". This led to some remarkable readings.
The category is relatively low in the "overall basket of consumer prices", but it has seen an unprecedented increase between November and the end of March.
Software accounted for more than half of this increase (2.8 percentage points) and the core goods component, which is the PCE's main component. It says that the contribution was more than nine standard errors above historical averages.
This was due in part to a 70 percent increase in the number of flash drives or memory sticks during a time when South Korea experienced a memory chip shortage as a result of massive chip demand around the global data center construction.
The paper argues then that the prices recorded in statistics may be misleading. They are unable to keep up with rapid technological developments and quality upgrades and could even be imputed incorrectly.
PCE is calculated by using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as inputs. A mismatch between PCE and CPI may be responsible for up to a quarter the large gain. With other measurement errors combined, the gain could be overstated by up to 50%.
HEAT AND COOL
These pressures are not dismissed by everyone as mere statistical noise.
The price increases are real, regardless of the method. It's not even worth considering the ripple effect of AI-driven costs on other chip-intensive products from energy to autos.
In a Monday note, Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos stated that "the AI Capex Boom" is inflationary. "There are no convincing evidences of an impact on labor markets, but there is a lot evidence for demand-side inflation." AI is pushing rates upwards, not down.
Morgan Stanley has a different baseline and is more sanguine about U.S. Inflation than the market, which has become increasingly hawkish.
The bank's alternative scenarios also indicate that AI-related pressures on prices could lead to a more aggressive price increase, such as a "combination" of AI-related pressures in categories like semiconductors, chips, memory and software.
Morgan Stanley has also suggested that AI "animal spirit" could tighten up the labor market, as the economy grows.
If this scenario occurs, the Fed may decide to consider a rate hike of up to 100 basis points. Morgan Stanley places the probability at 15%.
There are a lot more "ifs" than "buts", in these alternative scenarios.
The consensus is based on some questionable assumptions.
The AI debate is increasingly focused on the cost of AI itself. A growing emphasis has been placed on tracking AI tokens that measure this cost and could be used to re-price related contracts in the future.
If the costs of AI are higher than what is currently believed, this could have a number of effects: the costs may be passed on to products, recovered by reducing jobs, or AI use might simply be stifled.
The public and policymakers are at risk of a scenario that is similar to the Iran-related shock in terms of energy prices: the inflation will spike for a long time, only to reverse itself when demand destruction sets in, with job losses.
Wei Yao, chief economist at Societe Generale for the global region, called it "the convexity" of "central bank tightening". He applied it to Iran and oil but could also extend to AI-related fallout.
What happens when you get a cold followed by heat?
The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)