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Gold prices are down but on track to finish the best month since February
Gold fell 2% on Friday as the U.S. Dollar rebounded from a session low of more than a month. However, the metal is still on course for its first gain in five months as weaker inflation numbers reduced expectations of future rate hikes in the U.S. At 1:40 pm EDT (1740 GMT), spot gold fell 1.3% to $4,049.83 an ounce after dropping 2% earlier. U.S. gold futures for August delivered fell 1.3% to $4107. This is the biggest monthly increase in gold since February. Oil prices have fallen to levels seen before the Iran war and traders are now reducing their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, said that "although gold is about to end a four-month loss streak, it has struggled to create a larger gap above the psychological level of $4,000". Tan said that the metal's price remains above $4,000 due to expectations that Fed chair Kevin Warsh will broaden his central bank's focus from its preferred inflation and rate increases. The data released on Thursday shows that U.S. inflation rates slowed down in June. However, the slowdown was only temporary as renewed hostilities across the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Warsh pledged this week to be unwavering in his commitment to reduce inflation without indicating a willingness to raise interest rates. The dollar was stable after dropping 2.4% on Friday, its biggest one-day decline since January 2023. The dollar's strength makes gold more expensive for those who hold other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see a 65% probability of a rate hike in September compared to a higher than 80% likelihood a week earlier. A statement revealed that China's market regulator also urged solar companies in another meeting to resist a "vicious" competition of prices. Silver is an important industrial metal that's used in solar photovoltaic panel manufacturing. Spot silver dropped 2.1% to $57.76 an ounce. Palladium fell 1.8%, to $1281.18, while platinum dropped 0.6%, to $1650.14. Both metals are still on track for gains this month. Noel John in Bengaluru and Swati verma reporting. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Trump claims that the 'weaponization fund' is dead, despite his wishes. Blanche's nomination also stalls.
?U.S. Donald Trump said on Friday that his "anti-weaponization fund" was dead, despite his fondness for it. This is despite a standoff between Republicans in the Senate which has slowed his bid to get Todd Blanche appointed as acting U.S. attorney general permanently. To be honest, I would rather it wasn't dead. He said, "I think people were horribly mistreated, horribly abused", during a cabinet discussion, a day after threatening not to nominate the candidate until next year, after two important senators opposing him leave office. "I would like to see compensation for their pain." He warned Republican senators that "they will never get anyone like him" and urged them to confirm Blanche. He also criticised Senator John Cornyn, saying that he held up Blanche’s nomination until Trump endorsed Cornyn’s primary opponent. Trump added, "I would be angry too." "I can totally understand." He shouldn't act that way. "I shouldn't act that way." Cornyn, along with fellow Republican Senator Thom Tillis, have "held up" Blanche's nominee while seeking written assurances from the Justice Department that it will not establish the $1.8 billion program to combat weaponization. Trump critics have criticized it as a slush-fund to reward supporters with taxpayer money. Blanche told senators previously that the fund is dead but she has not yet agreed to write it down. In a post on social media, Trump had defended Blanche earlier in the day. He asked for his confirmation and spoke of the fund using the present tense. Tillis claimed that Trump's tweet indicated that he believed the fund was still operational. Tillis wrote in a X post that Trump had made it clear "that the Anti-Weaponization Fund was still alive." This is why we're trying to formally terminate it. The office of Tillis did not respond immediately to a comment request about Trump's claim that the fund is dead. Tillis stated that he would continue to work to resolve the impasse, and blamed Trump's "incompetent advisor" for the lack of progress. Cornyn, Tillis and their Senate terms will end early in January. According to a source familiar with the situation who spoke under the condition of anonymity, Cornyn, Tillis and their Senate term ends at the beginning of the month. Blanche, Trump’s former personal lawyer, who was appointed acting attorney general in early April, also met with Republican senator John Curtis. Blanche does not have to be confirmed in order to serve as Trump's attorney general during the remainder of his term. This is because acting officials are allowed to serve while their nominations are pending before the Senate, and as long as they do not get formally rejected or withdrawn. The "anti weaponization" fund, which was created as part of the legal settlement between Trump's Justice Department and his $10 billion lawsuit with the Internal Revenue Service for allegedly mishandling tax records, was halted by?congressional Republicans. The fund may benefit Trump's allies, who claim they have been unfairly targeted by federal authorities for their participation?in an attack on the U.S. Capitol in January 2021 after Trump lost his 2020 reelection bid. Cornyn said on Thursday that he was awaiting formal assurances from the Justice Department that it would not "implement" the fund. Cornyn, Tillis and others are also against a 'deal with the IRS that prevents tax audits for Trump and his associates. Trump said that the fund would "not benefit me but the great American Patriots whose lives have been unfairly and illegally ruined and who were hunted like dogs." Tillis said that those who have attacked law enforcement agencies should be still in prison, and not receive a federal check.
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Wall Street gains from tech earnings, bond yields reach multi-year highs
U.S. stock prices rose on Friday, as investors re-entered the AI market after strong earnings from Amazon.com and Microsoft. Meanwhile, longer-dated Treasury rates hit multi-year highs amid fears of inflation due to rising oil prices. A day after the Japanese authorities intervened to support yens, currency markets remained?on high alert for any further intervention. Microsoft?forecast?strong cash generation until fiscal 2027. Amazon's cloud revenue grew at its fastest rate in over four years a day after that, assuring investors who were eager to see proof that AI investments are paying off. Art Hogan is the chief market strategist for B. Riley Wealth. He said that there have been significant declines in the past month, especially when it comes to artificial intelligence. "Now that the hyperscalers and in particular Amazon are coming out and discussing the amount of demand and revenue for their cloud services which is in general a lot of small and medium business, this has put a significant back in the neocloud companies and their offering as it pertains rollout of AI strategy." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47%, to 52452.14, while the S&P 500 grew by 0.43%, to 7,469.60. Nasdaq Composite gained 0.55% to 25,261.38. Apple's shares dropped by nearly 10% after a disappointing report?showed the iPhone maker struggling to secure sufficient components in the face of the AI-driven boom in data centers. South Korea's KOSPI, which had suffered heavy losses this week, jumped 17.91%. This was a record-breaking comeback. The tech-heavy stock exchange, which is still around?30% from its high, has become a symbol of investor sentiments towards AI-related shares. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 11.73 points or 1.06% to 1,118.77. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.12% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 0.09%. HAWKISH FED?SPEAK SENSES BOND YIELDS HIGHER Three Fed policymakers, who dissented from a rate increase at the meeting this week, made their case for higher rates public on Friday. The Fed held rates at the same level, a widely anticipated?outcome which was in line with market expectations. These prices indicated a one-in three chance of an increase. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said that the U.S. Central Bank will not be in a position to bring inflation back to its 2% goal without "modest actions in the near-term," given the solid labor market and the upside risks of price pressures. This was similar to comments made by Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kazhkari. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 7.58 basis points, to 4.739%. This is the highest level since January 2025. The 30-year bond rate increased by 6.43 basis points, to 5.2713%. This is the highest level since mid-2007. Traders have now priced in 69% of the odds that the Fed will increase rates at its September meeting. The oil prices rose on Friday, and are expected to make a significant monthly gain. Reports that some tankers had to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz caused traders to reassess the shipping flow through this key waterway. Teddy Bunzel is the head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, Lazard Asset Management. He wrote: "The shock-absorbers in oil markets have dwindled fast. Failure to de-escalate will be more costly than previous 'rounds of tension. The crucial Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Houthi-backed Iran has also attacked the alternative route through?Bab el-Mandeb Strait, worsening the situation. BOJ HOLDS RATE DAY AFTER INTERVENTION According to a source in the market, after Japan's intervention on Thursday, which involved yen buying and dollar selling, the yen gained 0.17% to reach 159.27 against the dollar. A source familiar with this matter said that the U.S. Treasury also informed?several financial institutions it could intervene on the yen exchange market on Friday. They should be "prepared for future action". The BOJ kept interest rates at the same level on Friday but indicated its determination to increase borrowing costs. BOJ Governor Kazuo ueda stated at a press briefing that inflation risks are skewed upwards and the central banks is prepared to accelerate rate increases if monetary conditions become more accommodative. Analysts say that the BOJ's intervention has not been a?successful way to provide durable support for yen and the outlook of the currency is unlikely to improve unless it raises interest rates. "The fundamentals and technicals of the yen are very poor." Lauren van Biljon is senior portfolio manager for rates and FX at Allspring Global Investments. She said that intervention was not a long-term, credible solution. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) fell by 0.03%, to 100.04; the euro dropped 0.1%, to $1.1515. Spot gold dropped 1.45% to $4.043.12 per ounce.
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Low Danube power crisis escalates in Hungary and Romania
The prime minister of Hungary said that the Paks nuclear plant in Hungary, which produces nearly half the country's electricity could be closed for weeks. Meanwhile, Romania declared a state-of-emergency due to low water levels along the Danube. The heatwave expected to increase demand for electricity in both countries will lead them to rely more on imported power. The government has asked major industrial consumers to reduce consumption. Ilie Bolojan, premier of Romania, said that the country will seek to import additional electricity from Ukraine. Greece and Bulgaria. Bolojan stated, "I declared a state of alarm on a nationwide level during August due to the decline in electricity production caused by drought and low river volume, especially the Danube." Both (Romania & Hungary) have reduced our nuclear energy production by half. Nuclearelectrica, a Romanian nuclear energy producer, has closed one of its reactors. Paks’ four?Russian made reactors are currently operating at less that 50% of their combined capacity of 2 gigawatts and will be shutting down on Tuesday or tomorrow for the first time since 44 years as water levels continue to drop. The facility is cooled using water from the Danube. The reactors could be restarted when the water levels are high enough for safe operation. "But this is not expected in the next few weeks," said Peter Magyar, Hungarian prime minister during a press conference at MOL's Danube Refinery in Szazhalombatta. Magyar stated on Thursday that Hungary can meet its energy requirements through imports. The combination of a lower level of domestic production and a higher demand for energy could cause turbulence in the power system. MAGYAR ASKS COMPANIES TO CUT ENERGY USE Magyar asked that major companies in the industry, such as carmakers and battery makers, reduce their electricity and water consumption to ease pressure on power grids. MOL, a major electricity consumer in Hungary, has reduced its consumption by 40%, according to him. Samsung SDI reported that its battery plants north of Budapest were reducing water consumption by half and electricity by 10% at critical evening hours. Bolojan stated that Romania imports 1700MW to cover the peak consumption during evening hours, with a total?daily consumption?of 7000MW. HUNGARY INVESTS IN WIND ENERGY Magyar announced on Friday that Hungary would develop 4 gigawatts (or 4 billion watts) of wind energy capacity by 2030 using European Union funds and private capital to diversify their energy sources, as well as to become more independent from the Danube. Magyar stated at a briefing held at the Paks Nuclear Plant that "European Union funding will create the chance to develop Hungary's energy network, and a much wider use of wind power will be incorporated into this." Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, spokesperson for the European Commission, said that the Commission closely monitors the electricity supply situation in Romania and Hungary as well as the larger southeast European region. She said that there is no immediate concern about the security of supply and that the Commission was ready to call an ad-hoc meeting of the European Union Electricity Coordination Group, if necessary.
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EIA reports that US crude oil production fell in May while exports reached record levels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration published data on Friday showing that U.S. crude output dropped about 2% from its record-breaking April level, but exports reached a new record for the second consecutive month. The data revealed that crude oil production averaged 13,71?million barrels a day in May, while exports increased to 5,73 million bpd compared to the previous record of 5.59 million. U.S. Oil companies have increased exports dramatically?since beginning of Iran war. They are taking advantage of global supply shortages caused by disruptions in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz. The higher price of oil has affected consumption. The EIA reported that the total U.S. consumption of crude oil and petroleum products dropped by more than 3.5% to 20.07 millions bpd in May, the lowest level since March 2025. The data revealed that the U.S. distillate fuel demand, which includes primarily diesel, dropped to 3.57 millions bpd, the lowest level since June 2020. Diesel is one of the most expensive products due to the Iran War, since the Middle East 'is a major source of fuel and the best type of crude oil for its production. The U.S. natural gas production fell to 134.0 billion cubic feet per day in May from 135.3 in April. This is a drop from the record 136.0 bcfd set in December 2025. EIA reported that in the top producing states of gas, production in Texas fell 0.8% in May to 38.5 bcfd, but rose 0.9% in Pennsylvania to 21.2 bcfd. This?compares to monthly all-time highests of 38.8 Bcfd on April in Texas, and 21.9 Bcfd by December 2021 in Pennsylvania. (Reporting and editing by Kiri Donovan in New York, Scott DiSavino reporting from New York)
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Gold prices are down but on track to finish the best month since February
Gold fell 2% on the Friday, as the U.S. Dollar rebounded after a session in which it had fallen to a low of more than ONE MONTH. However, the metal is still on course for its first gain monthly in five months as the inflation data was weaker and expectations of future rate hikes by the U.S. were reduced. At 12:18 pm EDT (1618 GMT), spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,044.87 an ounce after dropping 2% earlier. U.S. Gold futures for August delivery fell 1.5% to $4043.80. Gold is up 1% this month, the biggest gain since February. Oil prices have fallen to levels seen before the Iran war and traders are now reducing their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, said that "although gold is on the verge of ending a 4-month losing streak," it has struggled to create a larger gap than the psychological $4,000 mark. Tan said that the metal's price remains above $4,000 due to expectations that Fed chair Kevin Warsh will broaden his central bank's focus from its preferred inflation and rate increases. The data released on Thursday shows that U.S. inflation fell in June. However, the drop was only temporary because the oil price rose due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Warsh pledged this week to be unwavering in his commitment to reduce inflation without indicating a willingness to raise interest rates. The dollar gained 0.2% on Friday after losing 2.4% in one day, its largest drop since January '2023. The dollar's strength makes gold more expensive for those who hold other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders see a 65% probability of a rate increase in September, compared to a higher than 80% likelihood a week earlier. A statement revealed that China's market regulator also urged solar companies in another meeting to resist "vicious price competition" at a price compliance guidelines meeting held on Friday. Silver is an important industrial metal that's used in solar photovoltaic panels. Silver spot fell 2.7%, to $57.40 an ounce. Palladium fell 2% and platinum 1%, but both metals are still on track for a gain in the month. Noel John in Bengaluru and Swati verma reported. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Tether purchased 14 t gold as USDT reserves during the second quarter
Tether, the issuer of the largest stablecoin in the world, increased the amount of gold it holds to support Tether -USDT by 14 tons during the second quarter. Last year, the crypto company bought a lot of gold to use as reserves for the Tether USDT, a stablecoin that is backed by a digital currency with tokens worth $183.7 billion and the Tether gold tokens with a circulation of $2.9 billion. Each dollar token issued by?Tether is meant to represent a U.S. Dollar held in reserve. Tether receives a dollar from a user and issues USDT. The company also holds assets with an equivalent value, such as U.S. Treasury Bills. These reserves ensure that USDT is redeemable for dollars if needed. The Tether XAUT is backed 100% by gold. The report shows that the gold reserves to back the Tether USDT had a total value of $18.8 Billion at the end of June. In a statement, Tether's CEO Paolo Ardoino said that "we remained one the world's biggest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, we reduced secured lending to $2.38 billion and added 14 tonnes of physical gold." Tether's net profit for the quarter was 1,50 billion dollars, driven by U.S. Treasury Portfolio and Repo Performance, he said. Data suggests that Tether increased its 'gold purchases' in the second quarter when the bullion market posted the sharpest quarterly drop?since 2013 - falling 14% compared to the 6 tons purchased in the first quarter. Gold and Bitcoin represent only 10% and 3%, respectively, of the reserves that back Tether USDT. Separate data revealed that Tether holds 22 tons (or?gold) to back up the Tether gold coin, XAUT. El Salvador-headquartered ?Tether does not disclose its ?total bullion holdings but they are probably larger: Ardoino told in January that the company aimed to allocate 10%-15% of its own $20-billion investment portfolio to physical gold. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Polina Devitt)
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Nornickel, a Russian company, doubles its H1 net profits and says it will consider an interim dividend
Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest palladium producer reported on Friday that it's revenue and net profit in the first six months of this year had'sharply' increased thanks to higher metal prices, which allowed them to pay interim dividends. It said that the net profit for the first half of 2026 was $2 billion, up from $842 millions in the first half of 2025. Revenues had also grown by 28%, to $8.3billion. EBITDA (earnings before tax, depreciation, and amortization) grew by 50%, to $3.9 billion. The company said that rising prices for non-ferrous metals and precious?metals was the main reason behind its improved financial performance. Sergei Malyshev said that the company's "profit margins" had also increased. He said that the strong financial performance of the first half of the fiscal year provided grounds for shareholders of reconsidering the issue of a interim dividend. A?decision will be made following consultations with the shareholders. Nornickel has not paid out an annual dividend for 2025 due to "elevated macroeconomic instabilities" for the 'fourth 'year in a row. Malyshev stated that macroeconomic conditions remain challenging. He cited a rising mineral extract tax, which is?linked to metal market prices - as well as inflationary pressure and logistics difficulties caused by geopolitical situations. Nornickel continues to implement its three-year program of efficiency improvements, which?should add 100 billion roubles in EBITDA by 2026. (Reporting and writing by Gleb Stolarova; Editing by Andrew Osborn).
Fed hawks push yields higher, stocks give back gains
The stock market was mixed on Friday as it gave back much of its earlier gains. Meanwhile, longer-dated Treasury Yields reached new multi-year heights after Federal Reserve officials claimed that more interest rate increases are necessary to combat inflation.
A?market source? said that currency markets were also on high alert for any further intervention a day after Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen.
Three Fed policymakers, who dissented for a rate increase at the meeting this week, made their case public on Friday in support of higher rates. The Fed left rates unchanged, a result that was widely expected and in line with the market's pricing. It had been priced to reflect a roughly one-in-3 chance of a rate hike.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Log said that the U.S. Central Bank will not be in a position to bring inflation back to its target of 2% without "modest actions in the near-term," given the solid and strengthening labor market, as well as the upside risks for price pressures.
The comments were similar to those made by Beth Hammack, the president of the Cleveland Fed and?Neel Kahkari, the president of Minneapolis Fed.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased by 6.35 basis points, to 4.727%. This is the highest level since January 2025.
The 30-year bond rate rose by 5.14 basis points, to 5.2584%. This is the highest level since mid-2007.
The odds of an increase in the Fed rate at its September meeting are currently priced by traders at 69%.
The price of oil rose sharply on the Friday after traders reassessed shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz following reports that some tankers had to turn back.
Brent crude oil prices rose sharply in July. This is the first monthly gain since March.
Teddy Bunzel is the head of Lazard Geopolitical?Advisory, a division of Lazard Asset Management.
The crucial Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Houthis backed by Iran have also attacked the alternative route through Bab el-Mandeb Strait, worsening the outlook.
STOCKS RETURN EARLIER STRENGTH
The stock market had risen earlier in the session, after Amazon and Microsoft's strong earnings eased investor concerns and attracted traders back to the AI trade. However, hawkish Fed comments and rising yields have eroded these gains.
Microsoft forecasted strong cash generation for the fiscal year 2027. Amazon's cloud revenue grew at its fastest rate in over four years a day after that, assuring investors who were eager to see proof that AI investments are paying off.
Art Hogan is the chief market strategist of B Riley Wealth.
"Now that the hyperscalers and in particular Amazon are talking about how much revenue and demand they have for their cloud service, which is in general a lot of small and medium business, it's brought a?significant interest to the neocloud companies and their offering as it pertains the rollout of AI strategy."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.06% to 52,179.23. The S&P 500 dropped 0.02% to 7435.72, and the Nasdaq Composite grew 0.19% at 25,170.38.
The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.03%. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 Index also dropped by 0.03%.
South Korea's KOSPI, which had suffered heavy losses this week, has risen 17.91%. This is a record return. The tech-heavy KOSPI, which is still around 30% below its all-time peak, has become a symbol of the dramatic swings in investor confidence towards AI-related stocks.
The MSCI index of global stocks was up by 0.73% to 1,115.07.
BOJ HOLDS RATE DAYS AFTER INTERVENTION
According to a source in the market, the yen gained 0.03% to reach 159.49 against the dollar. This follows sharp gains made on Thursday when Japan engaged in yen buying and dollar selling intervention. A source familiar with this matter said that the U.S. treasury told banks to "stand by" for any future intervention in the yen markets on Friday.
The BOJ held interest rates at the same level on Friday but indicated its intention to increase borrowing costs.
At a recent press conference, BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda stated that inflation risks are skewed upwards, and that the central bank is prepared to accelerate the rate-hike pace if monetary conditions are accommodative.
Analysts say that the BOJ's rate hikes are unlikely to change the currency's outlook, as the BOJ has not been able to provide a durable support for yen.
"The fundamentals and technicals of the yen are very poor." Lauren van Biljon is senior portfolio manager for rates and FX at Allspring Global Investments. She said that intervention was not a long-term, credible solution.
The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.21%, reaching 100.28. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.36% to $1.1485.
Spot gold dropped 1.52% to $4.040.70 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)