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Stocks soar as oil prices fall, but the yen is shaky ahead of BOJ

The dollar held steady on Friday, as investors reacted to global policymakers' stepped-up efforts to curb inflation. A drop in oil prices improved sentiment ahead of an expected Bank of Japan rate hike.

This week, the focus is on monetary policy responses as the six-month long war in the Middle East continues to show no signs of ending. Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel and inflation fears are rife around the world.

Brent crude futures fell 1% to $103.7 a barrel on hopes that oil could be supplied from other sources. However, concerns remained about strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen Houthis.

Traders took cues overnight from the rally on Wall Street, which was led by battered tech stocks. Bond prices stabilized following a brutal selloff that pushed the 10-year US Treasury above 5% and to its highest level since 2007. The last time it was at 4.936%.

In Asia, the broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.55%. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.9%, while South Korea's KOSPI, which is dominated by technology companies and has a high tech component, jumped 2%.

Bank of England warned Thursday that it might have to 'hike' if the Middle East conflict continues, while the Federal Reserve increased rates for the first time in three years on Wednesday and indicated more would be coming up over the next few months. Last week, the European Central Bank also warned of a need for more tightening when it increased rates.

Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said that if bonds reversed and yields pushed higher again, volatility would return quickly. The buyers are in control for now. Price action indicates that the post-Fed move to reduce risk has lost its momentum.

BOJ VERDICT YEN AWAITS

Early trading saw the yen drop to 156.23 US dollars as traders prepared for the BOJ's policy announcement later that day. The BOJ is expected to increase interest rates to their highest level in 31 years and promise to do more to combat inflation risks.

Michael Wan is a currency strategist with MUFG. He said, "The key for markets will not only be whether BOJ raises rates, but how they do it and what Governor Ueda says about the future path."

The yen rallied in this month due to expectations that the BOJ would increase rates faster and signs from Japanese investors of repatriation. However, it has lost some of these gains this week after the US central banks took a more hawkish stance.

Sarah Hammoud is a currency strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She said that if the increase in yen was fully priced at?25 per basis point, it would be unlikely to have much of an impact on the yen.

"Governor Ueda must?convince markets that the BOJ has a tendency?to raise rates faster. We expect the BOJ to raise rates again in December. "We believe the biggest risk is if Ueda does not match the market's expectations."

The euro held steady at $1.148 but was on track for a weekly 1% decline, the biggest since June.

Spot gold increased 0.5% to $4.361 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)