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Stocks fall, US 2-year yield drops after Fed's Williams cools down rate hike bets

Investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month after comments made by Fed Bank of New York president John Williams. Major stock indexes also eased, as yields for longer-dated bonds remained near multi-decade-highs.

Williams' comments and the optimism over AI lab Anthropic’s plan to go public tempered the stock market's weakness.

Williams stated that he does not see "urgency" in further action following the US central bank's rate hike earlier this month.

Based on the pricing of Fed Funds futures contracts traders now expect a 50% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Fed's next meeting in October. This is down from 70% earlier in day.

Williams, who believes that a single rate hike will occur by the end of the year is what has influenced the price of short-term rate contracts.

Investors remained concerned about the rate outlook, even though the 30-year US Treasury Bond had earlier reached its highest level since 2002. The'monthly US jobs data is also due this week.

Investors are getting ready for the PCE tomorrow. "If we see an acceleration in inflation, then I believe that this will cement a rate increase in October," said Peter Cardillo. Chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, New York.

Bond yields are rising due to concerns about inflation and higher oil prices. Fed increased interest rates this month, the first time they have done so since 2023, to combat inflation.

Investors digested other Fed officials' comments?on Tuesday. Chicago Fed President Austan G. Goolsbee said that allowing the inflation to remain above the Fed target for five-and-a half years was "playing with Fire." He noted that the Fed might need to respond to an supply shock which has long lasting effects.

Data showed that US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in over 12 years in September. Households expect both the business environment and the labor market will weaken in the next six-month period.

The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Fed was down 3.51 basis point to 4.889% last week, after previously touching 4.9596% - its highest level since May 2024.

The yield on US benchmark 10-year notes rose 1.32 basis points to 5.255% after previously reaching 5.2932%. This was its highest level since June 2007.

After reaching its highest level since the morning of June 2002, the 30-year bond rate rose by 3 basis points to 5,592%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?131.59, or 0.26 percent, to 51349.92. The S&P 500 declined 12.85 points or 0.17% to 7,670.84 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 22.84 points or 0.08% to 26,797.54.

Anthropic’s IPO prospectus revealed that the AI lab had grown rapidly in the past year, but also suffered larger losses. The company aims to reach a valuation of $2 trillion or more, which could set a new benchmark for Wall Street's assessment of AI leaders.

MSCI's global index of stocks fell by 3.41 points or 0.30% to 1,135.86. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.09%.

The yields on French 10-year debt were near their 2008 highs of 4.74%, and they were expected to rise the most in a single month since 2022.

The sovereign yield is a key anchor for the global markets. It's a price reference for riskier stocks, and it's a benchmark when it comes to mortgages and corporate borrowing. Rates that are higher put pressure on the budgets of government, corporations and households.

OIL FALLS

Investors focused on signs that crude exports to the Middle East were recovering.

Oil prices have risen despite the fact that hopes of a US-Iran deal on the horizon are fading. US President Donald Trump has said that he offered Iran nothing in order to end the conflict. He rejected media reports citing?US officials who claimed he would be willing to ease sanctions or?release funds frozen for "concrete steps" regarding Iran's nuke program.

US crude futures declined $3.22, to settle at $89.38 per barrel. Brent futures fell by $2.69, to settle at $100.59.

The euro rose 0.01% to $1.1341 in the last currency update. The dollar gained 0.03% against the Japanese yen to reach 157.32. The Australian dollar was almost flat against the greenback, at $0.6984.

Australia's central banks raised rates earlier to the highest level in 15 years.

Spot gold increased 1.46%, to $4174.26 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)