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Oil prices drop as tech lifts share market in Asia

On Monday, Asian share markets rose as AI's demand for data boosted?chipmakers. Oil prices also eased after reports that more oil was leaving the Gulf than originally thought.

The dollar was flat at 157.00yen on Wednesday as Japan celebrated its Silver Week holiday. Investors were 'wary' in case the Bank of Japan used the lack of liquidity to support its currency.

Nikkei reported that the yen rose on Friday, after Japanese authorities checked the rate of the currency market.

South Korea's technology-heavy index rose 1.4% while Taiwan rose to a new three-month-high of 1%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.9% and Chinese blue chip stocks gained 0.2%.

Japan's Nikkei closed, but futures rose by 0.2%. S&P futures rose 0.4% while Nasdaq added 0.6%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX50 futures increased by 0.5%. DAX futures grew by 0.4%, and FTSE futures gained 0.2%.

The bond markets remain tense following a brutal selloff that saw US 2-year yields rise 36 basis points over the past two week to peaks not seen since late 2024, at 4.7604%.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments last week have futures betting on a 56% probability that it will raise rates again in October. A move by the end of the year is considered to be a done deal.

Analysts at BofA wrote in a report that tightening cycles tend to be front-loaded and the Fed rarely stops after a single hike. "With nominal consumer expenditure up 6.3% over the past year, which is well above the 5% threshold historically associated with core inflation above target, the Fed's only option is to reduce demand."

"We are therefore retaining our call for only two more hikes in October and December."

Talk of an increased supply hits oil

By the end of the year, central banks in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Australia, and EU countries are expected to tighten their monetary policy. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden's Riksbank, and Norges Bank will hold their policy meetings. However, all three are expected to remain stable for the time being.

The risk premium for French bonds has also risen to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis.

German debt could be under pressure on Monday, after the conservative mainstream party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz suffered its worst electoral results since 1949.

The news held the euro steady at $1.1477 after it had fallen almost 1% in the previous week, as the dollar rose broadly.

The oil prices fell despite the new threats exchanged between Iran and the United States and after the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia's capital. Brent oil prices fell by 1.7%, to $102,08 per barrel. US crude oil dropped 1.8%, to $98.53.

Kpler, an analytics firm, reported that exports of the OPEC kingpin have recovered to just under 4 million barrels a day (bpd), after falling to 2.4 millions bpd last month. This is the lowest level since at least 2013.

On the weekend, Admiral Brad Cooper of the U.S. Central Command said that the volume of crude, cargo and liquefied gas was higher in the last two weeks than at any other time in the previous six months.

Saudi Arabia also reported that it hoped to restart some flow through its east-to-west main pipeline following the damage caused by attacks last week. However, details were lacking, and analysts harbored doubts.

Vivek Dhar is the head of commodities for CBA. He said that the closure of the East-West?pipeline had materially changed the state of oil markets.

We now estimate oil markets have 5 to 10 weeks until global oil and refined products inventories are depleted, compared with estimates closer to 15 or 20 weeks a few weeks ago.

He said that this would put more pressure on Washington to reach a deal with Iran to 'boost the flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and to keep the 'Bab el-Mandeb Passage open.

US President Donald Trump is attending the United Nations General Assembly in this week. He will then meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, on Thursday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng completed talks in New York Sunday. The US side proposed a new AI notification mechanism that the leaders will consider during their summit.

Gold, which does not pay interest, was down 0.5% to $4,355 per ounce on other markets due to the increase in yields.

(source: Reuters)