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Stocks rise on AI optimism; lower oil helps bonds

The global stock market recovered some of its poise on Monday as evidence of booming AI demand lifted tech shares. Oil prices fell on reports that more oil was being exported from the Gulf than originally thought, despite the ongoing conflict.

Last week, the bond market suffered a sixth consecutive weekly decline due to rising interest rates, and an unabated high oil price. This week, European debt led gains.

The MSCI All-World Index rose by 0.3% while European shares gained 0.75%.

Futures on Nasdaq rose by nearly 1%, as chipmakers' shares rallied. Intel was up 5.4% in premarket trade and Micron and AMD were both around 2% higher.

South Korean data revealed that exports in the first 20 days this month reached a new record, thanks to a surge in demand for chips.

S&P Futures rose 0.6%.

The oil price has dipped back to $100 per barrel from its highs of last week over $109.

"Maybe things got a bit apocalyptic in the last week and are now easing up." Chris Beauchamp, IG's chief market strategist, said that oil prices are still going higher. This is a minor correction.

He added, "For the moment, one narrative is dominant over the other."

This week, US President Donald Trump is attending the General Assembly of the United 'Nations, before a Thursday meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

OIL RETREATS FOR NOW

Prices of oil futures fell despite the fact that Iran and the United States were exchanging new threats, and even after the Houthis had attacked Saudi Arabia's Capital. Brent dropped 2% to $101.7 per barrel.

Kpler, an analytics firm, reported that Saudi Arabian exports have recovered to just under 4 million barrels a day (bpd), after falling to 2.4 millions bpd last August. This was the lowest level since at least 2013.

Saudi producers are also reported to be aiming to restart some flow through the main east-to west pipeline of the country after it was damaged by attacks last week. However, details were lacking and analysts harbored doubts.

Vivek Dhar is the head of commodities for CBA. He said that they now estimate oil markets will have between 5 and 10 weeks until global oil and refined products inventories are depleted. This compares to estimates which were closer to 15 or 20 weeks a few weeks ago.

In a similar context, it is expected that central banks will raise interest rates in the majority of major economies this year. Federal Reserve's hawkish comments last week have futures betting on a 56% chance that it will raise rates again in October. A move by the end of the year is considered to be a done deal.

The bond market has been hard hit by this, as the yield on the Group of Seven largest economies' average 10-year bonds is at its highest level since 2008.

French debt was hit by concerns about inflation and long-term financial stability, which sent its risk premium up to its highest level since the 2012 Euro zone debt crisis.

The conservative mainstream party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz suffered its worst results in Germany since 1949. The drop in oil was the main driver for bonds, causing a 5 basis point decline in German 10-year bond yields and a 10 bps decrease in French 10-year bond yields.

The dollar's value against the yen was slightly lower at 157.1. Investors were wary that the Bank of Japan might take advantage of the lack of liquidity during the three-day Silver Week holidays to step in and buy the currency.

Nikkei reported that the yen rose on Friday, after Japanese authorities checked the rate of the currency market.

(source: Reuters)