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Oil prices ease slightly as stocks weather bond volatility

On Friday, global stocks posted their best weekly performance since early August as AI euphoria, and the prospect of a better Middle East energy supply won out over rising bond yields.

Oil prices fell as traders considered the possibility of an agreement between the United States and Iran. Sources close to the talks said that negotiators were exploring a phased exit from the war, which would include reopening Strait of Hormuz.

The bond market has been able to find some relief from the inflationary fears that were triggered by higher energy costs, thanks to a slight drop in oil prices.

Jan von Gerich, Nordea's chief market strategist, said that markets tend to believe rumours about better news from the Middle East. "But there's no quick solution and the weekend is coming, so we might see some caution."

Brent crude?remains above $100 per barrel, keeping yields on government bonds near recent highs. Japan's 10-year bonds yielded 3.115% - a level not seen since 1996.

After last week's rate hike, inflation fears have boosted bets for multiple Federal Reserve?rate increases. The dollar is now on track to gain for a second consecutive week.

The STOXX 600 index for Europe rose 0.6%. U.S. stocks futures were also higher, a good sign for Wall Street's opening later.

MSCI's World Stock Index was slightly firmer than usual on Tuesday and is set to have its best performance in a week since the beginning of August.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, is currently in Washington, D.C. for talks with Donald Trump. However, there have been few signs of progress on the thorny issue of AI, trade, Taiwan, or the Iran War.

Under threat RISK ASSETS

Investors are demanding ever higher returns on debt, especially long-dated bonds, due to inflation fears and fiscal pressures.

Nigel Green of deVere Group Financial Advisors said, "The bond markets around the world are shrieking, and ignoring them could prove to be very costly."

"Once the risk-free rate in the largest economy of the world is above 5%, then every asset must justify its value against this." "Equity, property, private debt, emerging market bonds -- nothing is immune."

The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate was slightly higher today at around 5,17 percent, after a 20-basis point surge in two days to a new peak of about 5,22 percent. This was the largest two-day increase since April of last year, when Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs shocked markets.

The 30-year US bond yields are at 5.47% after a 17-bps surge in the last two days. This is their highest level since 2004. Mortgage rates have risen to 7% due to an increase in US borrowing costs.

The yields on euro zone bonds were lower than usual last Friday, but they are still poised to rise for the seventh consecutive week.

Nordea's von Gerich said that the bond market has seen "violent moves" and these moves went further than economic conditions justified. He also noted that yields could continue to fall.

Investors are preparing for more rate increases from major central banks.

Five of the Group of 10 central banks that are most influential have increased rates this month. The rest have either warned of a rate hike or signaled a rise is on the way.

Norway raised rates Thursday, and Sweden's Riksbank indicated that it would likely follow suit before the end of the year.

The dollar is held steady by expectations of further Fed tightening.

The dollar index, while a little lower on Friday was still set for a second consecutive week of gains. This week it has reached its highest level since late July.

The dollar lost 0.4% to the yen, falling from a peak of three weeks. Japan's Finance minister Satsukikatayama reported that Trump expressed concern over yen strength during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week.

(source: Reuters)