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Stocks and bonds fall as central banks raise rates to combat inflation

As markets neared the end of a volatile week that was marked by the global push of central banks to curb inflation, global shares and bonds declined on Friday. Japan's interest rate increase had been well-telegraphed but failed to support the yen.

This week, monetary policy was a major topic of discussion, especially as the Middle East war is approaching its seventh month and shows no signs of ending. The conflict in the Middle East keeps oil prices at $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns.

After the Bank of Japan increased rates to a record high of 1.25 percent, the Japanese currency was on its way to the biggest daily decline since mid-February. The dollar rose by 1.2% to reach 157.82. Two board members dissented from the decision.

The Japanese currency is up 1.2% this month, due to expectations that the BOJ will increase its rate of hikes and signs of early repatriation by Japanese investors.

The Federal Reserve increased rates on Wednesday for the first time in three years and took a more aggressive approach to inflation. This knocked down the yen. It is now on track for its worst performance weekly against the dollar since?two?years, down 2.6%.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that with inflation nearing 2% the focus of the bank had shifted. Most members of the central board believe the policy is still accommodating, even after the Friday hike.

Chris Scicluna is the head of research for Daiwa Capital Markets Europe. He said that with the Fed raising rates there was the risk that the yen would weaken again sharply, "further exacerbating the inflation."

If inflation and demand are resilient, this should leave the door open to more tightening. He said that a rate hike of 1.50% by the end the year seemed like a good bet.

HAWKS CRIRCLING

The BOJ's decision concludes a series of meetings at which central bankers have increased their hawkish rhetoric.

The average interest rate in September was the highest since July 2023. Four countries raised rates, and other G10 members indicated that they might need to raise rates soon.

Bank of England left UK rates unchanged on Thursday, but warned that it could have to raise them if the Iran War drags on. Last week, the European Central Bank also indicated that further tightening was needed as they raised their rates. Australia's top banker said on Friday that some of the inflation risks were?materialising.

RETRADING OIL PRICES LIFTS SENTIMENT

Stocks and bonds suffered modest losses despite the decline in oil prices.

Stocks in Europe dropped 0.5% in a single day. US stock futures, however, rose between 0.2% and 0.5%. This was largely due to the strength of tech shares which had reacted positively to the dire warnings earlier in the week by top AI executives regarding the dangers to humanity from unchecked AI developments.

Brent crude futures dropped as much as 2,8% to $101.92 following a report claiming that China had?asked Tehran for help in reining in the Houthis, after their military offensive over the past seven days.

This, along with the hope that Gulf exporters will find alternate routes to ship their oil, has set crude futures on a course for a weekly?2% drop. However, this strain is already showing up in 'physical markets,' where prices hover around $120.

After another week of brutal selling, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds soared to a record high, surpassing 5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007 after another brutal selloff this week that took it beyond 5%.

In the past week, yields in Britain and the Eurozone also reached multi-year highs. However, by Friday they were just a little bit higher.

(source: Reuters)