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Global M&A deals slow down in the third quarter due to rising borrowing costs

M&A activity totaled $993 billion in the past three months, a 41% drop compared to second quarter 2026. This is the first quarter that has fallen below $1 trillion, since the second half of 2025.

The ten megadeals worth more than $10 billion announced during the third quarter included Gold Fields' $25.7 billion bid to acquire Northern Star Resources and Banca Monte dei Paschi’s $32 billion offer for Banco BPM. This was the lowest quarterly number since the fourth quarter 2024.

The surge in energy costs has fueled inflation and raised expectations about interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Yield hit 5.34% Thursday, its highest since 2002 after posting the largest quarterly increase this century in three months up to September.

John Collins, Morgan Stanley's global head of M&A, said that "at the margins (higher yields) makes valuations sometimes harder." "It's hard to quantify the impact, but I am not yet ready to declare a slowdown."

The number of transactions fell by 8%, to levels not seen since the year 2020.

Carsten Woehrn is Goldman Sachs’ co-head for M&A in Europe Middle East and Africa.

If the current pace is maintained, he believes that the total value of the deals will surpass the peak in 2021.

Woehrn stated that "Megadeals continue and we have seen significant activity in the past few months." Boards are feeling more pressure to close strategic deals.

The?technology industry has seen unprecedented levels of investment, and strategic stake purchases of these companies have accounted for approximately one quarter of all global M&A deals so far in this year. Earlier this summer, Anthropic - the maker of Claude - and ChatGPT - the maker of OpenAI gathered tens billions of 'US dollars in investment.

While US and European M&A fell dramatically in the last quarter, Asia Pacific M&A reached $242 billion. This is up 8% compared to the second quarter, and 36% compared to the same period last.

The third quarter of this year saw a decline compared to the same period in the previous year.

The cross-border business continues to be a major theme in this year, with a 32% increase compared to the same period of last year. We're seeing US companies considering acquisitions in Europe, for the first-time. They are taking advantage of the strong dollar. People are investing in the U.S. to take advantage of higher growth opportunities in the country, said Charlie Bouckaert.

DEALMAKING AND TRILLION DOLLARS IPOs

The new listings, especially in the tech sector, has given companies the currency they need to acquire rivals. SpaceX bought AI coding startup Cursor days after its blockbuster Nasdaq debut. The company's valuation soared to over $2 trillion.

Collins stated that "one of the driving forces behind activity is that larger companies may be able to navigate the transition to?AI more effectively."

SpaceX's June IPO helped to drive $215 billion in global initial public offerings (excluding SPACs) in the past year, the highest amount since 2021. This was despite a smaller number of deals compared to the same period in 2017.

In the past three months,'stock sales' raised US$284 Billion, which is 26% less than proceeds raised in equity capital markets for the second quarter. However, this represents a 39% rise from the third?quarter 2025 thanks to offerings by SK Hynix, and Intel.

Bankers warned that investors might be hesitant to invest in certain technology and AI deals.

Andreas Bernstorff is the global head of equity markets at BNPParibas.

Some IPOs were delayed in recent weeks as higher interest rates, and setbacks within the data center eco-system threaten to derail a slew new issues. Bankers are confident despite the uncertain future. Bouckaert stated that "strong secular trends, such as AI, are driving activity and we expect to see 2027 be another prosperous year."

(source: Reuters)