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As oil prices fall, tech shares rise in Asia

As AI's demand for data grew, chipmakers saw their share prices rise. Oil also eased as reports suggested that more oil is leaving the Middle East than was previously believed despite the ongoing Gulf conflict.

The dollar was trading at 156.67yen, despite the fact that Japan is on holiday for Silver Week. Investors were wary of the possibility that the Bank of Japan would use the lack of liquidity as an opportunity to support its currency.

Nikkei reported that the yen rose on Friday, after Japanese authorities checked the rate of the currency market.

South Korea's technology-heavy index rose 1.5%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.8% and Chinese blue chip stocks gained 0.6%.

S&P futures rose 0.4% while Nasdaq added 0.6%. EUROSTOXX Futures and DAX Futures both increased 0.4% in Europe. FTSE Futures rose?0.2%.

The bond markets remain tense following a brutal sell-off that saw US 2-year yields rise 36 basis points over the past two week to peaks not seen since mid-2024, at 4.7604%.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments last week have futures betting on a 56% probability that it will raise rates again in October. A move by the end of the year is considered to be a done deal.

Analysts at BofA wrote in a report that tightening cycles tend to be front-loaded and the Fed "almost never stops after a hike." "With nominal consumer expenditure up 6.3% over the past year, which is well above the 5% threshold historically associated with core inflation above target, the Fed's only option is to reduce demand."

"We?retain our call for only two more hikes in October and December."

Talk of an increased supply hits oil

The central banks of the EU, UK and Japan are also expected to tighten up by the end of this year. The Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and Norges Bank all hold policy meetings Thursday but are expected to remain steady.

The risk premium for French bonds has also risen to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis.

German debt could be under pressure on Monday, after the conservative mainstream party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz suffered its worst electoral results since 1949.

The news held the euro steady at $1.1480 after it had fallen almost 1% in the previous week, as the dollar rose broadly.

Prices of oil eased despite the fact that Iran and the United States were exchanging new threats, and Saudi Arabia's capital was attacked by the Houthis. Brent oil prices fell by 2.1%?to $101.63 per barrel while US crude prices dropped by 2.1% to $98.15.

Kpler, an analytics firm, reported that exports of the OPEC kingpin have recovered to a little over 4 million barrels a day (bpd), so far in September. In August they had fallen to 2.4 millions bpd, the lowest level since at least 2013.

Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of the U.S. Central Command said on the weekend that the volume of crude, cargo and liquefied gas was higher in the last two weeks than it had been at any point in the previous six months.

Saudi Arabia also reportedly aimed to restart some flow through its east-to-west main pipeline following the damage caused by attacks last week. However, details were not provided.

Vivek Dhar is the head of commodities for CBA. He said that the closure of the East-West?pipeline had materially changed the state of oil markets.

We now estimate oil markets will have between?5 and 10 weeks left before global oil and refinery product inventories are depleted, as opposed to estimates that were closer to 15 or 20 weeks a few weeks ago.

He said that this would put more pressure on Washington to reach a deal with Iran at the very least?to increase flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and keep the 'Bab el-Mandeb Passage open.

US President Donald Trump is attending the United Nations General Assembly in this week. He will then meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, on Thursday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng completed talks in New York Sunday. The US side proposed a new AI notification mechanism that the leaders will consider during their summit.

Gold, which does not pay interest, was flat at $4.380 per ounce, despite the increase in yields.

(source: Reuters)